World Series pre-GDT Discussion - JAYS vs. Dodgers

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, rydermike said:

Bichette coming in to the lineup isn't that big of a risk to me given he's replacing Loprefido, who just had a single pinch run stint. You take that risk even if he's not ready for 1 or 2 and hope he's good for 3,4 or even 567. Adding Ty France is the interesting one for me. I wonder if it's in case they throw Bichette into the game as a PH, he injures himself in the field and then the lineup's out of whack and they need an extra fielder because they've already used other pinch hitters/runners

Really, how is a 1B only guy going to help in that situation?

[mphenhef]

Anybody know if the rules would allow the 2B and SS to switch sides depending on batter?  I'm guessing not, but where Gime can play both sides it would be slick to see him on the strong side of the hitter and Bo on the weak side.

[rydermike]

14 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Anybody know if the rules would allow the 2B and SS to switch sides depending on batter?  I'm guessing not, but where Gime can play both sides it would be slick to see him on the strong side of the hitter and Bo on the weak side.

Between innings only

 

[mphenhef]

The reason France is on the roster I would guess is all the lefties the Dodgers have in their pen.  It's a shame they don't have a better lefty mashing option than France.

Wrobleski

Kershaw

Dreyer

Banda

and it wouldn't surprise me if they find a way to get Vesia back on the roster if his issue is resolved.

[Wires]

1 hour ago, BlackCoffee said:

Honesty the government needs to drop him off in Cuba and Santander in Venezuela too while they're at it. 

You strike me as someone who was furious when Sportsnet shut down their comments sections. Seems like you would have been comfortably at home in that cesspool.

[Wires]

I don't mind adding Ty to the roster but is the lack of Davis all about? He was solid the latter part of the season and I thought he earned some leeway with the way he played down the stretch. He really only had one opportunity vs. Seattle. Just roster management, I assume - balancing the defense? Not sure.

[ComeTogether]

Both will get a start I think.  

 

[Laika]

6 minutes ago, Wires said:

I don't mind adding Ty to the roster but is the lack of Davis all about? He was solid the latter part of the season and I thought he earned some leeway with the way he played down the stretch. He really only had one opportunity vs. Seattle. Just roster management, I assume - balancing the defense? Not sure.

Seattle had no LHP starters and there was really just no opportunities for him to pinch hit against Speier

He will get a lot more PA against the Dodgers. 

[Grant77]

25 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

The reason France is on the roster I would guess is all the lefties the Dodgers have in their pen.  It's a shame they don't have a better lefty mashing option than France.

Wrobleski

Kershaw

Dreyer

Banda

and it wouldn't surprise me if they find a way to get Vesia back on the roster if his issue is resolved.

Wroblewski was their best reliever by fWAR and has gone a full month without throwing a pitch. Strange.

[mphenhef]

5 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Wroblewski was their best reliever by fWAR and has gone a full month without throwing a pitch. Strange.

I was thinking about this today.  With their 4 game sweep of the brewers where hardly any relievers were used they are going to have some serious rust to work through.  I feel like there will be lots of walks to be had.

 

Treinen, Banda and Sasaki are the only three who pitched in the LCS

 

Dreyer and Kershaw last pitched on Oct. 8

Sheehan last pitched on Oct. 9

 

One thing I am very confident about is that they will not be getting through this series only using three relievers.

[mphenhef]

23 minutes ago, Wires said:

I don't mind adding Ty to the roster but is the lack of Davis all about? He was solid the latter part of the season and I thought he earned some leeway with the way he played down the stretch. He really only had one opportunity vs. Seattle. Just roster management, I assume - balancing the defense? Not sure.

Them treating a guy with a 900 OPS against righties as a weak side platoon bat is baffling...especially given his splits are a 700 OPS versus lefties.  I'm assuming there is more to this than I can get from BRef like maybe it is certain kinds of Righties they had him face in the regular season and they haven't matched up that way in the postseason.

[Laika]

57 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Them treating a guy with a 900 OPS against righties as a weak side platoon bat is baffling...especially given his splits are a 700 OPS versus lefties.  I'm assuming there is more to this than I can get from BRef like maybe it is certain kinds of Righties they had him face in the regular season and they haven't matched up that way in the postseason.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/

You need a massive sample against LHP before you can even start to say that a RHB probably has a reverse platoon split 

Schneider has 320 PA against LHP in his career and has been 7% better against RHP

When you regress that against the proper sample needed (2200 PA) and league average RHB platoon difference (6.11%):

(-0.07*320+.0611*2200)/(320+2200)

= 0.044

You should still assume he is 4.4% better against LHP 

[Vancouverite]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

Them treating a guy with a 900 OPS against righties as a weak side platoon bat is baffling...especially given his splits are a 700 OPS versus lefties.  I'm assuming there is more to this than I can get from BRef like maybe it is certain kinds of Righties they had him face in the regular season and they haven't matched up that way in the postseason.

small sample size though only 81 AB's. two of his home runs were off position players that threw right. Take those 2 HR's out and his OPS vs. righties goes down to 0.810.

vs. lefties he's had to face some tough assignments and has done very well. The quality of RHP's he's faced hasn't been great this year. When he got extended playing time in Sept vs RHP and LHP he didn't perform that great. .171 BA and .584 OPS

 

 

[Omar]

Now we just have to wait for the Ty France moment this series when he gets a huge hit late in the game.  You heard it here first.

[keggy]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

Them treating a guy with a 900 OPS against righties as a weak side platoon bat is baffling...especially given his splits are a 700 OPS versus lefties.  I'm assuming there is more to this than I can get from BRef like maybe it is certain kinds of Righties they had him face in the regular season and they haven't matched up that way in the postseason.

I think Schneider sees a lot more time this series, and not just because there's more lefties. Their starters are elite but they are not workhorses at all. Our best shot is to wear down the SP with extended ABs and get to the lower leverage guys. Guys like Schneider and Lukes will be key I think.

And ironically wearing down Ohtani as a pitcher may be the best way to slow him down as a batter.

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

Now we just have to wait for the Ty France moment this series when he gets a huge hit late in the game.  You heard it here first.

Every World Series seems to have a moment like that :)