Article: Alek Manoah’s Uphill Battle Back to the Blue Jays Continues

[Leo Morgenstern]

Alek Manoah and Ryan Yarbrough were technically teammates last year, although Yarbrough’s arrival in Toronto came a couple of months after Manoah’s season-ending Tommy John procedure. Today, the two will face off in Buffalo, with Manoah pitching for the Bisons and Yarbrough toeing the rubber for the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. Yarbrough has been out since June with a strained oblique.

Manoah is looking to redeem himself after a disastrous outing last week. He failed to escape the second inning, as he gave up three earned runs on three walks, two hits, and a hit-by-pitch. He only struck out one of the 11 Triple-A batters he faced. 

All the more concerning? That wasn’t even the worst of his four rehab outings so far. Across a total of seven innings against four different levels of minor league competition, he’s given up 10 runs (nine earned) on 11 hits and 11 free passes (eight walks and three HBP). On the bright side, he has yet to give up a home run, but that’s a pretty thin silver lining for a pitcher who has only struck out six of 43 batters – batters who are supposed to be a lesser level of competition.

Some will tell you that stats from rehab assignments, much like stats from spring training, are best left ignored. As hard as that may be to actually do, it's pretty good advice. It’s wiser to focus on scouting reports and comments from those within the organization. Unfortunately for Manoah, neither scouting reports nor organizational comments paint any prettier of a picture. 

Blue Jays manager John Schneider didn’t offer much optimism after the righty’s last outing. He wasn’t overtly critical, but it wasn’t hard to read between the lines.

“You want to see kind of the desired result,” Schneider told Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. “And with him, he’s always been a little scattered...But you always want to see more strikes.”

The manager added, “I think when you’re so focused on the health, you can probably lose sight of your delivery and mechanics.”

Meanwhile, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs offered some worrisome observations. I highly encourage you to read his thoughts in full, especially because the article I linked also includes some much more encouraging scouting notes about Shane Bieber. The gist of Longenhagen's report, however, is this: “[Manoah] doesn’t appear to be in position to contribute to the big league rotation as he and it are currently constituted.”

Hopefully, Manoah will start to change the narrative with a much stronger performance this afternoon. But whether he’s successful or not, the Blue Jays will soon have some difficult questions to answer.

Most rehab assignments last a maximum of 30 days. Manoah passed that point last week. As a Tommy John recoveree, he has some additional leeway. The Blue Jays can extend his rehab assignment in 10-day increments up to a maximum of 60 days. Still, by September 12 at the latest, the Jays will have to choose whether to (a) reinstate him on the active roster, (b) option him to the minors, or (c) return him to the injured list.

With the way he’s pitching right now, option B seems the most likely of the three, though I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he’s pitching through pain and requires another IL stint. 

That said, if Manoah turns things around over the next few weeks, it’s more than possible he makes his way back to the majors in September, when the Jays can roster an extra pitcher. In terms of healthy right-handed depth on the 40-man, Toronto’s options currently include Paxton Schultz, Lazaro Estrada, and Robinson Piña. If Manoah can even start to resemble his old self, he’s certainly a higher-upside multi-inning option than any of those three. Indeed, his biggest competition for a call-up could end up being top pitching prospect Trey Yesavage, and Manoah (once reinstated) would have the advantage of already being on the 40-man roster. 

For now, though, all Manoah and the Blue Jays need to worry about is his next rehab start. If it goes well, he’ll make another. If it goes poorly, they will have to reassess. 

A couple of months ago, I wrote a piece about Alek Manoah and fellow injured starter Bowden Francis, wondering which would play a bigger role for the Blue Jays down the stretch. Now, however, with the Blue Jays thriving and their rotation full, the real question seems to be: Will Manoah pitch for the Blue Jays at all in 2025?

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[John_Havok]

"As a Tommy John recoveree, he has some additional leeway. The Blue Jays can extend his rehab assignment in 10-day increments up to a maximum of 60 days."

This is not something I was aware of. Cool to know. 

 

Edit: Checked the CBA, the Player also has to consent to extend the rehab stint. "Notwithstanding the foregoing, a Player rehabbing from UCL reconstruction surgery may consent to up to three consecutive ten-day extensions of his rehabilitation assignment, with the approval of the Commissioner’s Office and the Association."

[AMS528]

4.2 IP - 3H  4K - 2BB - 1ER 

Did not hit anyone. Threw 75 pitches. Velocity was apparently started with velocity as 92-93 but dipped down to 90 as the game went on. Looked better at the end of it with 9 straight batters out. Gave up a solo shot in the first. Here's him getting a strikeout on his slider. 

https://x.com/Worden_Zach/status/1958236630390812957

He's obviously not ready to help the team or anything, but this was a much more positive looking outing than he's had generally during his rehab. Hopefully he's able to build on it. 

 

 

[John_Havok]

39 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

4.2 IP - 3H  4K - 2BB - 1ER 

Did not hit anyone. Threw 75 pitches. Velocity was apparently started with velocity as 92-93 but dipped down to 90 as the game went on. Looked better at the end of it with 9 straight batters out. Gave up a solo shot in the first. Here's him getting a strikeout on his slider. 

https://x.com/Worden_Zach/status/1958236630390812957

He's obviously not ready to help the team or anything, but this was a much more positive looking outing than he's had generally during his rehab. Hopefully he's able to build on it. 

 

 

I think Manoah is a 2026 thing. The chance of him being relevant to the Jays this season is just so small it's probably not worth considering.