Who Will Play a Bigger Role for the Blue Jays the Rest of the Season: Bowden Francis or Alek Manoah?

If there's anyone who understands what Bowden Francis is going through, it's Alek Manoah. 

Francis was sensational for Toronto over the final two months of the 2024 season, pitching to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts. He struck out 56 and walked only seven, while holding opponents to a .121 batting average. The city quickly embraced him; not just anyone gets chosen to star in Adidas ads on Sportsnet. The team did too. Despite a poor spring, Francis beat out Yariel Rodríguez for the final spot in the 2025 Opening Day rotation.

However, things quickly went downhill from there. Francis was solid over his first five starts in 2025, but as I pointed out, the underlying numbers suggested serious cause for concern. Lo and behold, he gave up five homers in three innings during his sixth start of the year. By mid-June, his ERA had ballooned to 6.05, while his 5.91 expected ERA was no better. His home run rate was the worst in the league. When the Blue Jays placed him on the injured list two weeks ago with a shoulder impingement, it wasn't a tough blow – it was a relief. 

Manoah could surely relate. He was a much higher draft pick and a higher-ranked prospect than Francis ever was. He also had a more convincing breakout. Yet, that only made his fall from grace all the more disappointing. Following a rock-solid rookie season in 2021 (3.22 ERA in 20 starts), Manoah took a huge step forward in his sophomore campaign, earning an All-Star nod and a top-three Cy Young finish. His 2.24 ERA ranked third in the AL. 

Then 2023 came along, and Manoah fell apart. He gave up five earned runs on nine hits in his Opening Day start, failing to escape the fourth. It was more of the same over the next two months, and the Blue Jays eventually had no choice but to option him down to the minor leagues. He continued to struggle upon his return, finishing the season with a 5.87 ERA and 6.12 xERA in 19 starts.  

A shoulder injury held Manoah back early in 2024. When he made his season debut in May, he looked a little better but still not like the dominant ace he had been in 2022. After just five starts, he was back on the IL, this time with a torn UCL. He'd be out for 12 months at the very least. 

Those 12 months have now passed, and Manoah is working toward his comeback. While he has yet to start a rehab assignment, he hit 95 mph in a live bullpen session last week. He's set to throw another bullpen today. If things continue to go well, an early August return seems possible. 

As for Francis, his timeline is less clear. With how poorly he was pitching this year, one might have thought his IL stint was of the phantom variety, allowing him some time to clear his head and the Blue Jays to temporarily take him off the active roster. Yet, he received a cortisone shot shortly after his IL placement, and it's now been more than two weeks since he last pitched. According to Sportnet's Arden Zwelling, he started "playing flat-ground catch from 60-90 feet" on Friday. Presumably, the next step is a live bullpen or two, and after that, he'll have been gone long enough that he'd probably need at least one rehab start. There's no reason to think he won't be back at some point in July or August, but right now, that's really all we can say.

Given all the similarities between Manoah and Francis, and the fact that the Blue Jays could certainly use some healthy starting pitching depth, I can't help but pit the two of them against each other. I can't help but wonder: Which pitcher has a better chance to make a significant impact for Toronto over the final three months of the 2025 season?

Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Eric Lauer make up a perfectly solid five-man rotation for the Blue Jays. However, Lauer remains a question mark – it's been less than a year since he was struggling in the KBO – and Scherzer is an injury risk. (After missing close to three months with a thumb injury, he felt more fatigue in his thumb last night in his second start back from the IL.) Toronto will almost surely need more than just those five to get through 78 more regular season games. 

Even if those five remain healthy and effective, the Jays will need to find roles for Manoah and Francis once they're ready to return, unless they're planning to stash them both in Triple A – a course of action that seems unlikely.

So, I ask again, which of Francis and Manoah has a better chance to make an impact over the final months of 2025?

Manoah was the first-round pick, the top-100 prospect, the All-Star, and the Cy Young finalist. Over 51 starts from 2021-22, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA and 3.51 FIP. Yet, he's now trying to return from major elbow surgery, and it's been two and a half years since he was last a truly great starting pitcher. He had the higher peak, but that peak is getting farther and farther away. 

Francis never had a pedigree like Manoah's, but he was every bit as effective last August and September as Manoah was in his Cy Young finalist campaign. While Francis didn't maintain his success for nearly as long as Manoah, he was an effective big league pitcher far more recently. What's more, he's not recovering from major surgery. He might not have quite as high a ceiling, but he has fewer obstacles in his way.

There's a world in which Francis and Manoah both struggle upon their respective returns. There's a world in which they both suffer setbacks (knock on wood) and neither makes his way back to a big league mound at all in 2025. On the flip side, there's a world in which they both get healthy and rediscover what made them each so effective in their breakout seasons. 

But we're Blue Jays fans. We've learned to temper our expectations. So, instead of dreaming that both Manoah and Francis can contribute meaningful innings down the stretch in 2025, I'm wondering which of the two is the safer bet to succeed. The thing is, I really, truly can't come up with an answer. So please, help me make up my mind by casting a vote in the poll below. Which injured Blue Jays starting pitcher do you have more faith in right now: Bowden Francis or Alek Manoah?