2025 Trade Deadline

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah Bednar and Keller make too much sense. Roll with a 6 man rotation unless someone gets hurt. Our rotation is full of older dudes with million miles on their arms and they were looking worn out heading into the all star break.

Then Bednar gives you that insurance on the closer role and that sweet swing and miss 8th inning guy if Hoffman keeps it together.

Also love that both are under control past this season too.

Should also get at least one other reliever too. 

[hanton]

 

[Spanky__99]

Damn, fairly cheap for Naylor.

[John_Havok]

8 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Damn, fairly cheap for Naylor.

2 40+ prospects....

Equivalent from the Jays would be 2 of Macko, Bastardo, Barreira, King, Maroudis, possibly Bloss if hes considered to have fallen to a 40+

[Laika]

6 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

2 40+ prospects....

Equivalent from the Jays would be 2 of Macko, Bastardo, Barreira, King, Maroudis, possibly Bloss if hes considered to have fallen to a 40+

Hard to comp anybody to the A+ prospect in the deal. I think Stanifer and King are clearly more exciting, but guys like Barriera and Maroudis would be worth less. 

Jays also don't have a good comp for the MLB ready relief prospect. 

The bucket for "40+ FV" prospects is like 500 names deep so teams are going to have wild variations in valuations on such players 

[John_Havok]

Just now, Laika said:

Hard to comp anybody to the A+ prospect in the deal. I think Stanifer and King are clearly more exciting, but guys like Barriera and Maroudis would be worth less. 

Jays also don't have a good comp for the MLB ready relief prospect. 

The bucket for "40+ FV" prospects is like 500 names deep so teams are going to have wild variations in valuations on such players 

True enough, just going by fangraphs ratings.

 

[sliderguy35]

12 hours ago, metafour said:

His FIP is low because his HR/9 has dropped a lot over the past two months, and he generally doesn't walk a lot of guys. But he is still getting hit hard (well above the MLB average rate) and he is still getting barreled hard, so the huge drop in HR/9 may have a lot of luck involved in it. The main thing is that he still isn't striking anyone out, and he is still getting hit hard - hence why he has outings where he gets shelled.

I don't like defaulting to FIP and ignoring balls in play for guys who are giving up runs because they are simply getting hit hard. Those results aren't flukey.

not sure where you're seeing that he's getting hit hard well above MLB average. during the period that i mentioned (june 1st onwards) his HH rate is 42.5% (league average 41%) and he's exactly league average in barrel rate (8.6%). the hr/9 is down but his hr/fb% in that period is 9%, a bit below league average but nothing crazy or unsustainable (the marlins as a whole this season are at 9.5%). FIP isn't my favourite metric but it still does a better job of predicting future ERA then past ERA does. 

the lack of whiffs is obviously concerning but since the stuff is essentially the same & his command has been coming back, you might be able to get that back with some usage adjustments:

• against righties in particular, the marlins have been pushing the 4 seam usage (especially when ahead in the count) and it just has not worked at all (4.5% swinging strike rate, real bad damage metrics). backing off that for more breaking ball or offspeed seems like something an acquiring team would try. 
• against lefties, he used to throw nearly 40% changeup when behind in the count & had great results limiting hard contact. this season, the usage is down 20% despite the changeup still having a 45% whiff rate & below average hard hit rate in that situation

guys with top shelf stuff & this much team control just do not become available very often. we've been trying to sign top of the rotation guys for the past few offseasons without any luck. now they have a chance to acquire someone who has that ceiling, has already had his major elbow surgery & is going at a slight discount, for some prospects that MIGHT be big leaguers one day. even if they technically lose the trade from a value perspective, taking that kind of risk now is exactly what the team should be doing if they're trying to win

[jmomcc]

Is Kellar definitively a top three pitcher in the playoffs for us? It's probably gausman, bassitt and him? 
 

Because the price for him and bednar is going to be a lot.

Its the kind of pitcher our front office loves but i thought the reason for that is that they are more attainable. Pittsburgh will want a big price. 

[Brownie19]

46 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Is Kellar definitively a top three pitcher in the playoffs for us? It's probably gausman, bassitt and him? 
 

Because the price for him and bednar is going to be a lot.

Its the kind of pitcher our front office loves but i thought the reason for that is that they are more attainable. Pittsburgh will want a big price. 

No guarantee. He's not an ace.  He's a quality arm that would help both this season and in future seasons.  That's the draw.

Could he get hot, or could Walker make some adjustments that allows him to shove down the stretch and be a top of the rotation arm for the playoffs?  That's a possibility.  Not overly high though, maybe 25% chance that happens.

He's more of a low risk, lower reward guy (v. deGrom).

Sandy is similar to Keller, but he has higher upside.  I think he's the best target if it's going to take a Top 3 prospect to land either.

[jmomcc]

55 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

No guarantee. He's not an ace.  He's a quality arm that would help both this season and in future seasons.  That's the draw.

Could he get hot, or could Walker make some adjustments that allows him to shove down the stretch and be a top of the rotation arm for the playoffs?  That's a possibility.  Not overly high though, maybe 25% chance that happens.

He's more of a low risk, lower reward guy (v. deGrom).

Sandy is similar to Keller, but he has higher upside.  I think he's the best target if it's going to take a Top 3 prospect to land either.

I'd prefer Alcantara as well. 
 

I don't like prospects for cheap (ish) control trades for big market teams. It's such a saturated market. Just sign someone in free agency and overpay somewhat. 

[Laika]

Dylan Cease for Daulton Varsho framework 

Cease is the kind of SP Toronto needs but Varsho is under control for 2026 and also pretty dang good. 

What would it take as a kicker for you to say yes to that? 

[jmomcc]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

Dylan Cease for Daulton Varsho framework 

Cease is the kind of SP Toronto needs but Varsho is under control for 2026 and also pretty dang good. 

What would it take as a kicker for you to say yes to that? 

There is probably around $25-30 million surplus value on varsho at 10m per win. And maybe 7/8 million on Cease. That is roughly estimating it. 

So, a 50FV pitching prospect if they have one. It is san diego though so i want one of those crazy lotto tickets they always seem to have. 
 

 

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

There is probably around $25-30 million surplus value on varsho at 10m per win. And maybe 7/8 million on Cease. That is roughly estimating it. 

So, a 50FV pitching prospect if they have one. It is san diego though so i want one of those crazy lotto tickets they always seem to have. 
 

 

Apparently they offered Cease + Ethan Salas + some other prospect for Jarren Duran 

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

Apparently they offered Cease + Ethan Salas + some other prospect for Jarren Duran 

Wow, that almost seems steep unless salas has fallen off somewhat. A 19 year old catcher in double A is either incredibly advanced or them pushing him up to f*** with other team's models. 

[jmomcc]

I'd really consider Cease for Varsho plus prospects. If there is any system that could throw up future stars its one run by Preller. 
Cease also absolutely starts a playoff game. 

[metafour]

Ethan Salas is trash and has to be the most overrated prospect in recent memory by a long shot. He got all sorts of undeserved hype because they promoted him hyper aggressively despite the fact that he has never hit for s*** apart from a 123 wRC+ stint in low-A (even that isn't amazing by any stretch of the imagination).

It would be like the Jays promoting Nimmala straight to AAA and going "see, he's 19 and already in AAA! Don't worry about the fact that he's hitting .170 with zero power, he is in AAA!"

[Laika]

Yeah the Padres probably ruined him. When he was 17 and killing A ball scouts LOVED him but he still had 57 Ks in 48 games and should have been handled more appropriately. 

[Jonn]

Cease would be a dream addition. Sign me up. 

[glory]

The Yankees are getting Ryan McMahon. 

[G-Snarls]

The Mets and Orioles are in agreement on a trade sending left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from Baltimore to New York, as first reported by SNY’s Andy Martino. Minor league right-handers Wellington Aracena and Cameron Foster are going back to the O’s, Martino adds.

[G-Snarls]

3 minutes ago, glory said:

The Yankees are getting Ryan McMahon. 

The Yankees have a new third baseman. They are acquiring Ryan McMahon from the Rockies, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Rockies will receive two prospects in return. One of the two prospects is left-hander Griffin Herring, per Jorge Castillo of ESPN.

[G-Snarls]

The Oswald Peraza era is sadly over

[G-Snarls]

s***'s happening now...

[mphenhef]

24 minutes ago, metafour said:

Ethan Salas is trash and has to be the most overrated prospect in recent memory by a long shot. He got all sorts of undeserved hype because they promoted him hyper aggressively despite the fact that he has never hit for s*** apart from a 123 wRC+ stint in low-A (even that isn't amazing by any stretch of the imagination).

It would be like the Jays promoting Nimmala straight to AAA and going "see, he's 19 and already in AAA! Don't worry about the fact that he's hitting .170 with zero power, he is in AAA!"

A big part of Salas value comes on the defensive side of the ball too.

[John_Havok]

5 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

The Mets and Orioles are in agreement on a trade sending left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from Baltimore to New York, as first reported by SNY’s Andy Martino. Minor league right-handers Wellington Aracena and Cameron Foster are going back to the O’s, Martino adds.

So...a 26 year old AA reliever and a 20 year old in rookie ball who's got got decent stuff. 

Not bad I guess

[jmomcc]

Whatever on ryan mcmahon. That that isn't saurez is a massive win for us. 

[bronson44]

Wonder where Suarez winds up now. The Mariners were pushing for him after getting Naylor so that would be my guess. If they get him they are going to be tough

[G-Snarls]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Whatever on ryan mcmahon. That that isn't saurez is a massive win for us. 

Yeah, that's Cashman settling

[Vancouverite]

3 minutes ago, bronson44 said:

Wonder where Suarez winds up now. The Mariners were pushing for him after getting Naylor so that would be my guess. If they get him they are going to be tough

Saurez and Cease are coming to the Jays. i feel it!

[mphenhef]

I don't think it was him settling.  I don't think they wanted to deal with Suarez's defensive shortcomings.