Jays sign Anthony Santander

[Jays24]

21 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

It would just be funny/annoying to see the flip flopping on run prevention vs run production that this front office can't seem to get right.  Ever.

After seeing the entertainment value the past 2 years, bring on the run production with elite starting pitching back lol. 

[Orgfiller]

9 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

This lineup needed a power bat spanning over the last two years regardless. Don't have to be an armchair GM to recognize that.

Whether Santander is the right fit, we'll see. Could backfire if he all of a sudden just becomes a .290 OBP guy with 25 HR's. Let's hope not. Hopefully we get a couple more 40+ HR seasons from him! 

Would be nice if Atkins could continue to add. Alonso or Bregman + Mad Max would be nice final touches! Definitely would bring some excitement heading into the 2025 season!

 

And why should we believe he all of a sudden will become this guy? Alex Bregman could also all of a sudden become a 90 wRC+ bat upon signing him, could backfire. What if Daulton Varsho all of a sudden becomes a 125 wRC+ bat?

We can't just be pulling hypotheticals out of our ass without legitimate reasons to back them up. Literally any free agent signing could be a disaster, that's the name of the game. Bo Bichette all of a sudden became a replacement level player in 2024, doesn't mean I'm commending the FO for expecting that chance and not extending him to a Corey Seager contract before that happened.

[jaysblue]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

Haha chicken.  I was being offered 30 bucks from my original 50 bucks and said screw it, let it ride.  If we make the additions we're still being rumored on then I'm gonna feel great lol.

Bet 365 gave me my full cash out which was nice. 

I got $100 riding on the Athletics still haha. 

[Jays24]

8 minutes ago, MikeM2 said:

22 hr, .310 obp, multiple IL stints

That's the Jays 2nd/3rd best hitter with those numbers... sign me up lol

[Orgfiller]

6 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah Kim's OBP is also far superior, which does allow him to steal more. Makes a difference. You can also hit Kim near the top of the lineup, whereas Clement on a contending team at best could only hit at 8th or 9th. 

I don't have an issue with Clement starting at 3B if the Jays added other bats in the lineup to make up for his spot in the lineup. Ideally, Clement as a super utility guy who can play all over the field and work his way into 300-400 AB's would be better. As well, with Bo likely leaving after 2025, signing Kim might not be a bad thing. 

 

This point doesn't make any sense and is a bad faith argument. Kim projects for a 105 wRC+ and Clement for a 103 wRC+. If "you can hit Kim near the top of the lineup" because he has an okay OBP, then "you can hit Clement near the middle of the lineup" since he hits for more power and average and would thus drive more runs in with runners on base.

Either way, you don't want either of those guys hitting that high because overall they're just alright hitters, and you'd hope you have at least 5 or 6 more reliable bats in front of them.

[jaysblue]

1 minute ago, Orgfiller said:

And why should we believe he all of a sudden will become this guy? Alex Bregman could also all of a sudden become a 90 wRC+ bat upon signing him, could backfire. What if Daulton Varsho all of a sudden becomes a 125 wRC+ bat?

We can't just be pulling hypotheticals out of our ass without legitimate reasons to back them up. Literally any free agent signing could be a disaster, that's the name of the game. Bo Bichette all of a sudden became a replacement level player in 2024, doesn't mean I'm commending the FO for expecting that chance and not extending him to a Corey Seager contract before that happened.

I said I hope he doesn't become this guy.

At the end of the day, Shatkins is the one making the big bucks to make these decisions, and yes if most of their FA deals don't work out, they're the one's accountable. 

I hope Varsho becomes a 125wRC+ bat haha. If he does, great! Definitely Shatkins deserve credit. 

I really couldn't care about the Santander contract. It's not my money. I'm actually excited we signed a 40+ HR bat and hope he can help the Jays into the Postseason. I think we all do. 

[Laika]

Do we know Ross's salary? Maybe he is like Michael Scott and is making $80,000 or something 

[Jimcanuck]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Do we know Ross's salary? Maybe he is like Michael Scott and is making $80,000 or something 

Too much

[jaysblue]

2 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

This point doesn't make any sense and is a bad faith argument. Kim projects for a 105 wRC+ and Clement for a 103 wRC+. If "you can hit Kim near the top of the lineup" because he has an okay OBP, then "you can hit Clement near the middle of the lineup" since he hits for more power and average and would thus drive more runs in with runners on base.

Either way, you don't want either of those guys hitting that high because overall they're just alright hitters, and you'd hope you have at least 5 or 6 more reliable bats in front of them.

Clement doesn't hit for more power. It's pretty much a wash. Kim has shown he could potentially hit 20 HR's (17 in 2023 playing half his games at Petco). 

OBP is a big deal. Kim is far superior. Means he generates less outs and gives the Jays a better chance to score more runs. A .350 OBP is a huge upgrade over a .280 OBP over a full season. 

[Bone R]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

Do we know Ross's salary? Maybe he is like Michael Scott and is making $80,000 or something 

Atkins makes around $1.5 million per year. 

[Laika]

Just now, Bone R said:

Atkins makes around $1.5 million per year. 

thanks, Boner 

[max silver]

14 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

You're gonna have a hard time convincing me that a player who is in the 2nd percentile of range at 1B might actually be a viable option at a more difficult position. Vlad, 100 lbs lighter in 2019, was a -20 OAA defender holy s*** that's bad. I hadn't even looked at the data from that far back. Now that he's even less mobile, I'm just not picturing him magically being even a -5 defender level of bad.

I'm not remotely buying that Vlad was 50 pounds lighter in 2019 let alone 100 pounds lighter when he debuted. Vlad posted the highest ever average sprint speed of his career last season so I think he was in peak physical condition (as far as he is concerned at this point of his career). I think it's eminently possible he could post Rafael Devers seasons level of bad defense at third base, but I don't know if the team will ever be willing to give him enough innings to find out one way or the other.

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Clement doesn't hit for more power. It's pretty much a wash. Kim has shown he could potentially hit 20 HR's (17 in 2023 playing half his games at Petco). 

OBP is a big deal. Kim is far superior. Means he generates less outs and gives the Jays a better chance to score more runs. A .350 OBP is a huge upgrade over a .280 OBP over a full season. 

Kim hit 9 home runs on the road vs 8 at home in 2023 so Petco wasn't really a factor. Petco was actually the second most favorable park for him by expected home runs as well so he really wasn't hurt by playing there.

[Jimcanuck]

What do industry evaluations have Kim and Clement at?

I laughed seeing Kim at 112 and Clement not listed in the BA fantasy top 500.  I know fantasy lists are not the same

[max silver]

1 minute ago, Jimcanuck said:

What do industry evaluations have Kim and Clement at?

I laughed seeing Kim at 112 and Clement not listed in the BA fantasy top 500.  I know fantasy lists are not the same

Projections have Kim at about a single win above Clement. Both of the projections see these guys losing the bulk of their defensive value though and a lot of the overall difference is based on overall playing time. 

[Jimcanuck]

Just now, max silver said:

Projections have Kim at about a single win above Clement. Both of the projections see these guys losing the bulk of their defensive value though and a lot of the overall difference is based on overall playing time. 

So $10M difference in value

With Kim being a fair bit more reliable IMO

[Orgfiller]

5 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'm not remotely buying that Vlad was 50 pounds lighter in 2019 let alone 100 pounds lighter when he debuted. Vlad posted the highest ever average sprint speed of his career last season so I think he was in peak physical condition (as far as he is concerned at this point of his career). I think it's eminently possible he could post Rafael Devers seasons level of bad defense at third base, but I don't know if the team will ever be willing to give him enough innings to find out one way or the other.

If Vlad were Devers level defensively at 3B, that would actually be a massive boost to his defensive value lol. The difference between Devers' defensive value in his career compared to Vlad's has been about +1-2 WAR per season lol. If Devers could hit like Vlad or Vlad could field like Devers, that player would approach Miguel Cabrera levels of valuable.

[Laika]

3 minutes ago, max silver said:

Projections have Kim at about a single win above Clement. Both of the projections see these guys losing the bulk of their defensive value though and a lot of the overall difference is based on overall playing time. 

A lot of that is just playing time projection. 

Clement - 1.5 wins in 358 PA

HSK - 2.6 in 508 PA 

Equalize the PA and Clement gets 2.13 WAR in 508 PA 

[Omar]

If he gives the Jays 35+ knocks a year then it will be  a successful signing.  Anything less, considering his one dimensional utility, well, not much to get excited about.  A few more pieces to go and we may have something.

[Jimcanuck]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

A lot of that is just playing time projection. 

Clement - 1.5 wins in 358 PA

HSK - 2.6 in 508 PA 

Equalize the PA and Clement gets 2.13 WAR in 508 PA 

50/50 Clement is 2025's Schneider

Factoring in risk, Kim is superior and it ain't close

Also prorating WAR to playing time ignores that the player may now be exposed more difficult matchups

 

[Laika]

Toronto doesn't really need to spend money to upgrade the probability of reaching their mean projected outcome at a position. 

Better use of HSK money is to spend it on some other position that more directly upgrades the roster. Mean projection upgrade at said position. 

I don't see why Ernie Clement would drop off from 2024 though. He didn't get lucky or do anything that he shouldn't be able to repeat. And the sample was decent enough at 450 PA. 

HSK is also coming off major shoulder surgery so I don't agree about the risk profile being better. 

[max silver]

5 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

50/50 Clement is 2025's Schneider

Factoring in risk, Kim is superior and it ain't close

I think the biggest risk with Kim is how the shoulder bounces back from offseason surgery. If his arm strength is greatly affected he may be forced to move to second base which would stand to reduce his defensive value quite a bit.

[Bone R]

Where does Clement play if he's on the roster this season?

[Orgfiller]

1 minute ago, Bone R said:

Where does Clement play if he's on the roster this season?

As things currently stand it's 3B without question. If a 3B is signed or traded for then he's a utility guy all over the infield that gives guys days off from the field 1-2 days a week.

[glory]

3 minutes ago, Bone R said:

Where does Clement play if he's on the roster this season?

Utility IF. I think they end up getting a 3B somehow, even if it's Moncada. 

[Bone R]

3 minutes ago, glory said:

Utility IF. I think they end up getting a 3B somehow, even if it's Moncada. 

Thanks. We're not winning many games if he's our every day 3B

[Omar]

Over at the Orioles hangout...  

The Santander appreciation thread:

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/56195-the-anthony-santander-appreciation-thread/

Surprisingly magnanimous.

[mphenhef]

40 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

If Vlad were Devers level defensively at 3B, that would actually be a massive boost to his defensive value lol. The difference between Devers' defensive value in his career compared to Vlad's has been about +1-2 WAR per season lol. If Devers could hit like Vlad or Vlad could field like Devers, that player would approach Miguel Cabrera levels of valuable.

Oh yeah?  How many gold gloves does Devers have?  /sarcasm gold gloves are ridiculous

[wilko]

20 minutes ago, Bone R said:

Thanks. We're not winning many games if he's our every day 3B

They could do a lot worse. 

[mphenhef]

I am not sure how I feel about the deferred money in this deal.  It’s like borrowing money to put a performance tire on one wheel of my Ford Pinto.