Article: The Blue Jays' 2025 ZiPS Projections Are In

[Mike LeSage]

On Saturday, we gleaned some takeaways from the Blue Jays' Steamer projections. Today we break down the ZiPS projections.

Friday was the day we’d been waiting all winter for. No, not a big (or even medium) free agent signing and not an extension announcement for either of our big-name pending free agents. It’s the Blue Jays’ turn to have their 2025 ZiPS projection revealed! ZiPS is the creation of Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It’s a projection model that uses multiyear statistics for each player, compares them to the historical record for similar players, and aims to project what the 2025 season might look like. For a more detailed and informative breakdown in Dan’s own words, go to FanGraphs and read the entire entry. Now, on to the 2025 Blue Jays, Clint Eastwood Style.

The Good
The newest member of the team, Andrés Giménez, is projected to be very good, with 3.7 WAR, third-best on the team. Known for his glove, ZiPS sees his offense bouncing back to a 105 OPS+ after two down seasons in a row. If he can somehow return to his all-star 2022 levels we’ll look back at these projections and laugh.

ZiPS also predicts bounce-back years for Bo Bichette (3.3 WAR) and Alejandro Kirk (3.5). In the case of Bichette, how early is too early to nominate someone for Comeback Player of the Year? Battling injuries in 2024, he was only able to appear in 81, and who knows how healthy he was when he did suit up? A healthy Bichette is arguably the thing the Blue Jays need most this season.

Vladmir Guerrero Jr. projects to lead the team’s offense, putting up 3.9 WAR. Not a big surprise there. He also has the widest floor-ceiling range in his projections. So, depending where you think his true ability is, you’ll find an option in his spread. In all, that leaves four of the five infield spots projected for more than 3.0 WAR, which is an awfully strong group.

The bullpen is also projected to be improved (how could they get worse?!), putting up 3.2 WAR after a league-worst -2.5 in 2023. While there isn’t a flashy name, even being serviceable will add wins to the team.

Kevin Gausman projects to be the top pitcher in the rotation, with a 3.65 ERA and 3.8 WAR. I debated which section to discuss Gausman. He’s projected to be the team ace (good!) and to be improved from last season (good!) but the improvement doesn’t project him returning to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2023 (less good) and his ace status might be more by default than anything else (see the rest of the rotation in the Bad section). His strikeout rate is going to be the thing to watch. Can he increase the whiff-rate on his splitter while giving up some velocity? That seems like a big ask, but Kevin Gausman has been counted out before.

Lastly, Alek Manoah’s projected 4.16 ERA (imagine seeing him in the Good section!) and Will Wagner’s projected 110 OPS+ are at the very least, interesting. If either of them can find a way to contribute this season, that would certainly be Good.

The Bad
I didn’t cover a single outfielder in the Good section. Daulton Varsho should have the inside track on another Gold Glove, and his 2.5 projected WAR is the best in the outfield. Perhaps it’s unfair to have him here. A glove-first centre fielder is a classic archetype, and on a team that generates runs more easily, maybe we could overlook it, but not when combined with George Springer’s projected 1.5 WAR in right field and 2.0 from some combination of Joey Loperfido, David Schneider, and Nathan Lukes in left field.

Speaking of multiple players projected to share a position for better or worse. Third base is not projected to be a major source of joy, with another 2.0 WAR projection. Some combination of Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and others should be serviceable, but it looks like a spot where we’ll be hoping someone catches a spark and stays hot.

The rotation behind Gausman. José Berríos and Chris Bassitt both project to be fine. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez both project to be a tier below, but also fine. A league-average rotation might be fine elsewhere, but unfortunately we’re not in a league-average division.

Designated Hitter is the worst spot, with the Jays projected just for 0.9 WAR. The Blue Jays don’t have a dedicated DH player and given the holes in the lineup it’s something I’d rate as a luxury at the moment. Something to aspire to.

The Ugly
The ugly is less about any single player’s projection and more about the direction of the team. Earlier. I touted Bo Bichette as a Comeback Player of the Year nominee, and I believe he’ll have a good-to-great season. What I’m less sure of is what team he’ll be playing for during game 162. The Blue Jays are projected to be a middle-of-the-AL-East team and that’s a tough spot to navigate from at the best of times – do you go all-in on a playoff push? Do you build for the future? Without a contract extension for either Bo or Vladdy, the front office has to be exploring trade packages. The rotation doesn’t seem strong enough, the bats need help, and the front office hasn’t been able to entice the top free agents to come to Toronto. For all the talk about team control when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho, he’s a free agent after the 2026 season (along with Gausman and Kirk).

For a Few Dollars More
I’ll try to end with some optimism. It’s still early January, the days are getting longer, pitchers and catchers don’t report for another 32 days. Maybe between now and then we’ll get one or both of those extension announcements. Maybe we’ll get to see what Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, or Anthony Santander can do in a Jays uniform. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. These are just projections, after all. That’s why they play the games.

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[Brownie19]

I must say - the volume and quality of these articles is incredible.

[BatFlip]

A big step up from all the other Jays sites out there.  Keep em comin guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I must say - the volume and quality of these articles is incredible.

We're just getting started. I'm not saying that lightly but seriously, just give us a year to train up some of the younger writers and really get things humming. We take a lot of pride in finding young, ambitious writers and then giving them access to experts like Davy to take them to the next level.

And we're doing this without access to our access to paywalled data, which will hopefully be coming back in the next few months. Long story short, gambling f***ing sucks and is destroying so many aspects of the sport. We used to pay a considerable amount for access to data streams that are not public facing but gambling sites are driving up the prices so much that some of the data sources that are focused on analytics (instead of milking the public for money) can no longer afford the data packages from MLB.

[BB17]

Projections seem to really like Wagner. Just wondering where he's going to play next season since Giminez is at 2B. He's never played the outfield and his arm is pretty weak so likely can't play 3rd.  Once Bo leaves it opens the door for Giminez to slide to SS and Wagner could then play 2nd.

On the pitching side, surprised to see Burr has the lowest FIP projection of any pitcher. He really was elite vs RHH last season. The pitching as a whole looks rather weak though, only 4 guys projected for a FIP under 4.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

Projections seem to really like Wagner. Just wondering where he's going to play next season since Giminez is at 2B. He's never played the outfield and his arm is pretty weak so likely can't play 3rd.  Once Bo leaves it opens the door for Giminez to slide to SS and Wagner could then play 2nd.

On the pitching side, surprised to see Burr has the lowest FIP projection of any pitcher. He really was elite vs RHH last season. The pitching as a whole looks rather weak though, only 4 guys projected for a FIP under 4.

My guess is Wagner will DH a lot until Bo is traded.

[BatFlip]

2 hours ago, BB17 said:

Projections seem to really like Wagner. Just wondering where he's going to play next season since Giminez is at 2B. He's never played the outfield and his arm is pretty weak so likely can't play 3rd.  Once Bo leaves it opens the door for Giminez to slide to SS and Wagner could then play 2nd.

On the pitching side, surprised to see Burr has the lowest FIP projection of any pitcher. He really was elite vs RHH last season. The pitching as a whole looks rather weak though, only 4 guys projected for a FIP under 4.

Yeah, that's not even close to true re: pitching. 

The Jays current five starters are projected for a 13.2 WAR, which I would guess would put them at least in the top third of the AL.  The bullpen is also starting to take shape with the Hoffman/Garcia signings and hopefully they add another arm soon.  Could they use another depth starter and a decent lefty in the pen?  Yes, but hardly "weak".

[Laika]

27 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Yeah, that's not even close to true re: pitching. 

The Jays current five starters are projected for a 13.2 WAR, which I would guess would put them at least in the top third of the AL.  The bullpen is also starting to take shape with the Hoffman/Garcia signings and hopefully they add another arm soon.  Could they use another depth starter and a decent lefty in the pen?  Yes, but hardly "weak".

Fangraphs has their P at 13 WAR which is 11th in the AL! 

Position players are like #5 in the AL though.

Of course that's a defense heavy position players WAR...

[BatFlip]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

Fangraphs has their P at 13 WAR which is 11th in the AL! 

Position players are like #5 in the AL though.

Of course that's a defense heavy position players WAR...

I thought I saw ZiPs at 13.2 WAR for Jays starters (same as Boston at 13.2, way better than the Orioles trash rotation and slightly behind the Yankees at 13.7 WAR) and 3.5ish WAR for relievers including Hoffman. 

To be fair, I was guessing that would put them in the top third rather than the bottom third, as not all the teams had updated ZiPs projections yet.  Now, I can't access any of it now because I've reached my damn free article limit.  

 

[BB17]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

My guess is Wagner will DH a lot until Bo is traded.

Yeah it certainly seems that way as it stands right now. Given his height, he's not an ideal fit at 1B either.

I wonder if Gimenez would play SS on Bo off days or if he were to hit the IL at any point. Wagner's bat is great at 2nd but DH kind of kills his value.

[BB17]

3 hours ago, BatFlip said:

Yeah, that's not even close to true re: pitching. 

The Jays current five starters are projected for a 13.2 WAR, which I would guess would put them at least in the top third of the AL.  The bullpen is also starting to take shape with the Hoffman/Garcia signings and hopefully they add another arm soon.  Could they use another depth starter and a decent lefty in the pen?  Yes, but hardly "weak".

Zips has:

Gauseman- 2.6 WAR, 3.70 FIP

Berrios- 2.0 WAR, 4.35FIP

Bassit 1.9WAR, 4.25 FIP

Francis 1.2 WAR, 4.27 FIP

Rodriguez 1.1 WAR 4.04 FIP

 

Jays SP value is more about quantity of innings than actually being all that great quality wise at least Bassit and Berrios. With the Jays good defence its fine having dependable SP who can throw 170-200IP, especially if you have a good bullpen.

[BatFlip]

Is that from the link the author posted above?  Those are different projections from what I saw on the link, with three of those pitchers projected higher than what you've posted.  Maybe I'm crazy, but the paywall won't let me check.

I agree on the quantity piece, but there's also no dumpster fires in there.  I also think Bowden is being under projected, but I'm an optimist.

Does anyone know if the updated ZiPs projections take into account team defense?  I don't recall that it does, and the Jays defense is so good, I calculated last year that it saves around ~0.3 off the Team ERA.  If there's one thing we've got, it's defense.

[BB17]

1 hour ago, BatFlip said:

Is that from the link the author posted above?  Those are different projections from what I saw on the link, with three of those pitchers projected higher than what you've posted.  Maybe I'm crazy, but the paywall won't let me check.

I agree on the quantity piece, but there's also no dumpster fires in there.  I also think Bowden is being under projected, but I'm an optimist.

Does anyone know if the updated ZiPs projections take into account team defense?  I don't recall that it does, and the Jays defense is so good, I calculated last year that it saves around ~0.3 off the Team ERA.  If there's one thing we've got, it's defense.

Yes that is literally Zips projections..

Also that was FIP which removes defense, basically what a pitcher can control. It stands to reason their ERA would be better if the Jays are plus defensively. But when I was saying the Jays pitching was weak I meant their actual pitching not run prevention including defense.