The Blue Jays' 2025 ZiPS Projections Are In

Friday was the day we’d been waiting all winter for. No, not a big (or even medium) free agent signing and not an extension announcement for either of our big-name pending free agents. It’s the Blue Jays’ turn to have their 2025 ZiPS projection revealed! ZiPS is the creation of Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It’s a projection model that uses multiyear statistics for each player, compares them to the historical record for similar players, and aims to project what the 2025 season might look like. For a more detailed and informative breakdown in Dan’s own words, go to FanGraphs and read the entire entry. Now, on to the 2025 Blue Jays, Clint Eastwood Style.

The Good
The newest member of the team, Andrés Giménez, is projected to be very good, with 3.7 WAR, third-best on the team. Known for his glove, ZiPS sees his offense bouncing back to a 105 OPS+ after two down seasons in a row. If he can somehow return to his all-star 2022 levels we’ll look back at these projections and laugh.

ZiPS also predicts bounce-back years for Bo Bichette (3.3 WAR) and Alejandro Kirk (3.5). In the case of Bichette, how early is too early to nominate someone for Comeback Player of the Year? Battling injuries in 2024, he was only able to appear in 81, and who knows how healthy he was when he did suit up? A healthy Bichette is arguably the thing the Blue Jays need most this season.

Vladmir Guerrero Jr. projects to lead the team’s offense, putting up 3.9 WAR. Not a big surprise there. He also has the widest floor-ceiling range in his projections. So, depending where you think his true ability is, you’ll find an option in his spread. In all, that leaves four of the five infield spots projected for more than 3.0 WAR, which is an awfully strong group.

The bullpen is also projected to be improved (how could they get worse?!), putting up 3.2 WAR after a league-worst -2.5 in 2023. While there isn’t a flashy name, even being serviceable will add wins to the team.

Kevin Gausman projects to be the top pitcher in the rotation, with a 3.65 ERA and 3.8 WAR. I debated which section to discuss Gausman. He’s projected to be the team ace (good!) and to be improved from last season (good!) but the improvement doesn’t project him returning to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2023 (less good) and his ace status might be more by default than anything else (see the rest of the rotation in the Bad section). His strikeout rate is going to be the thing to watch. Can he increase the whiff-rate on his splitter while giving up some velocity? That seems like a big ask, but Kevin Gausman has been counted out before.

Lastly, Alek Manoah’s projected 4.16 ERA (imagine seeing him in the Good section!) and Will Wagner’s projected 110 OPS+ are at the very least, interesting. If either of them can find a way to contribute this season, that would certainly be Good.

The Bad
I didn’t cover a single outfielder in the Good section. Daulton Varsho should have the inside track on another Gold Glove, and his 2.5 projected WAR is the best in the outfield. Perhaps it’s unfair to have him here. A glove-first centre fielder is a classic archetype, and on a team that generates runs more easily, maybe we could overlook it, but not when combined with George Springer’s projected 1.5 WAR in right field and 2.0 from some combination of Joey Loperfido, David Schneider, and Nathan Lukes in left field.

Speaking of multiple players projected to share a position for better or worse. Third base is not projected to be a major source of joy, with another 2.0 WAR projection. Some combination of Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and others should be serviceable, but it looks like a spot where we’ll be hoping someone catches a spark and stays hot.

The rotation behind Gausman. José Berríos and Chris Bassitt both project to be fine. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez both project to be a tier below, but also fine. A league-average rotation might be fine elsewhere, but unfortunately we’re not in a league-average division.

Designated Hitter is the worst spot, with the Jays projected just for 0.9 WAR. The Blue Jays don’t have a dedicated DH player and given the holes in the lineup it’s something I’d rate as a luxury at the moment. Something to aspire to.

The Ugly
The ugly is less about any single player’s projection and more about the direction of the team. Earlier. I touted Bo Bichette as a Comeback Player of the Year nominee, and I believe he’ll have a good-to-great season. What I’m less sure of is what team he’ll be playing for during game 162. The Blue Jays are projected to be a middle-of-the-AL-East team and that’s a tough spot to navigate from at the best of times – do you go all-in on a playoff push? Do you build for the future? Without a contract extension for either Bo or Vladdy, the front office has to be exploring trade packages. The rotation doesn’t seem strong enough, the bats need help, and the front office hasn’t been able to entice the top free agents to come to Toronto. For all the talk about team control when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho, he’s a free agent after the 2026 season (along with Gausman and Kirk).

For a Few Dollars More
I’ll try to end with some optimism. It’s still early January, the days are getting longer, pitchers and catchers don’t report for another 32 days. Maybe between now and then we’ll get one or both of those extension announcements. Maybe we’ll get to see what Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, or Anthony Santander can do in a Jays uniform. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. These are just projections, after all. That’s why they play the games.