Article: The Blue Jays’ Future Is Cannibalizing Their Present

[Brandon Glick]

It's no secret that the Blue Jays haven't been able to lure superstars to their organization over the last few offseasons. What's particularly striking is that a depleted farm system is what's keeping the team from landing the big fish.

In a report from Jeff Passan on Monday (locked behind the ESPN+ paywall, so we can't share everything here), the Blue Jays were listed, quite obviously, as a team that needs to make a move this offseason. Save your obligatory "no duh" for now, as one particular thing that Passan noted, somewhat in passing, is rather worrisome for a team that is far from the class of the AL East.

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"They [the Blue Jays] have money and are willing to spend it. But in an AL East with a Yankees team that made the World Series, an ascendant Red Sox team, an always-competitive Tampa Bay squad and a Baltimore Orioles unit that could be the best of them all, the Blue Jays don't rate quite the same. And with an uninspiring farm system -- multiple free agent players took notice -- and next to no foundational players under contract beyond 2025, ultimately the good is counterbalanced by the not so good."

It may not have been all that surprising when Shohei Ohtani chose the Dodgers or when Juan Soto chose the Mets, but the Blue Jays still finished somewhere in those sweepstakes. Was it off the podium? Most likely, but there's a difference between finishing fifth because Ohtani wanted to stay in Los Angeles on a $700-million deal and finishing fifth because Ohtani was worried that the team wouldn't be any good after 2025. Now, we don't know to what extent certain players — or even which free agents — took the Blue Jays' lackluster farm system into account when deciding not to come to Toronto. It's a lot to ask human beings to move their families to a new country. Unless a player is from Canada, it's not all that likely they're looking to head north of the United States.

Still, this notion that the team's uncertain and uninspiring future is costing them tangible talent in the present is depressing at best and a condemnation at worst. You can see what our community members have had to say about this report over on the rumor forums of the site, but suffice to say: fans aren't happy. Take a look at different outlets' consensus Top 100 prospect rankings, and you won't find many Blue Jays prospects on those lists. MLB.com's rankings only place Trey Yesavage on the list (at the very back at No. 94), while FanGraphs is a bit nicer, giving Orelvis Martinez, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jake Bloss spots in the 80-95 range.

Argue over those rankings all you like, the point stands that the farm system is lacking impact talent. Of course, the Jays are also lacking impact talent at the big league level, and what little they do have is dangerously close to walking out the door. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are both impending free agents following the 2025 season, and Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt are set to join them following the 2026 season. Toronto currently has just two players on its major league payroll that are pre-arbitration: 28-year-old Bowden Francis and Davis Schneider, who hit .191 in nearly 400 at-bats last year.

Now, before we let ourselves sink into some Sartre-level existentialism, let's remind ourselves that this is merely a warning sign, not the actual doomsday siren. There's still time for the team to ink Guerrero and Bichette to extensions, or, at the very least, beef up that weak farm system by exchanging them on the trade market for top prospects. And while much of the rotation is aging and expensive, most of the team's best prospects are pitchers at various levels of the organization. Plus, plenty of quality free agents are still out there this offseason, including Anthony Santander, to whom the Jays have been extensively linked.

So, yes, the Blue Jays are caught between a rock and a hard place right now. They've been kicking the can down the road for years, and it's finally back-boarded off a street sign and struck them directly in the face. 2025 may prove to be a last stand for this core — as well as the front office brain trust — but that doesn't mean the Blue Jays can't make some moves in the second half of this offseason that would position them better for the future.

Then again, I say that as someone who would gladly accept $5 million to move to Canada. For actual MLB players, that may not be quite the selling point we want it to be.

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[Brownie19]

I think Term addressed this best when we discussed it yesterday.

Understanding the future of the team will be one of many considerations, but it's unlikely players are avoiding teams because their farm system sucks.  SF is ranked 28th overall by Fangraphs.  Chapman just signed a long extension, Adames just signed there long term.

Angels and Astros are currently 29th and 30th overall and players still sign there.

White Sox have the 4th best farm system in baseball - that isn't drawing in the top free agents.

I expect the uncertainty of Bo and Vlad are much larger factors, as is living in another country, as is money and what your family wants.  Prospect rankings are just some minor consideration.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I expect the uncertainty of Bo and Vlad are much larger factors, as is living in another country, as is money and what your family wants.  Prospect rankings are just some minor consideration.

I think the farm is a factor but only when coupled with Vlad and Bo.

For example, if the Jays had an outstanding farm, that might be a counterweight to the Guerrero/Bichette uncertainty.

It's both coupled together that is the problem.

[Laika]

I think there just aren't that many free agent contracts so far this offseason that Toronto would have in fact wanted to give out. 

They talk to everybody and end up in every rumour but that doesn't mean they are making offers and getting turned down. Soto and Ohtani aside. 

[xposbrad]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I think Term addressed this best when we discussed it yesterday.

Understanding the future of the team will be one of many considerations, but it's unlikely players are avoiding teams because their farm system sucks.  SF is ranked 28th overall by Fangraphs.  Chapman just signed a long extension, Adames just signed there long term.

Angels and Astros are currently 29th and 30th overall and players still sign there.

White Sox have the 4th best farm system in baseball - that isn't drawing in the top free agents.

I expect the uncertainty of Bo and Vlad are much larger factors, as is living in another country, as is money and what your family wants.  Prospect rankings are just some minor consideration.

I am sure it's not the ONLY factor. A lot of Americans want to stay in the US. They have family there. Also, you can factor in this club has 0 direction right now, trying to band aid a rebuild by going after more free agents? I mean, there are probably a whole list of reasons why they are skipping TO. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, xposbrad said:

I am sure it's not the ONLY factor. A lot of Americans want to stay in the US. They have family there. Also, you can factor in this club has 0 direction right now, trying to band aid a rebuild by going after more free agents? I mean, there are probably a whole list of reasons why they are skipping TO. 

I don't really believe that, even as an American. All of these guys are in the top 1%. Toronto is a great city, I would not hesitate for a moment to live there or in Canada generally. It's not as if most players keep their permanent home in their playing city anyway, they just live there for six months.

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't really believe that, even as an American. All of these guys are in the top 1%. Toronto is a great city, I would not hesitate for a moment to live there or in Canada generally. It's not as if most players keep their permanent home in their playing city anyway, they just live there for six months.

I suspect it's more than you think.  But who knows really.  They're all in the Top 1%, so you'd think money wouldn't matter as much either - but it does.