The Blue Jays Have Made an Offer to Free Agent Anthony Santander

The Blue Jays haven't made a splash in free agency just yet, but we'll keep digging. Buried in an offseason round-up article by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 in Houston, is this nugget:

That’s a pretty big revelation: Not just that the Blue Jays are interested in Santander, but that they have made an offer. To be clear, none of this means that Santander is guaranteed to sign in Toronto, or even likely to do so. First, we should always take these rumors with a grain of salt. Second, the Blue Jays reportedly offered Corbin Burnes more money than he actually signed for in Arizona, and they were also in on Juan Soto, Max Fried, Clay Holmes, and Gleyber Torres with nothing to show for it. Still, there’s a big difference between reported interest and a reported offer.

At FanGraphs, Ben Clemens ranked Santander 12th among the top 50 free agents, and predictions have him getting four or five years at an annual average value of $20 million. The 29-year-old Santander reportedly wants a five-year deal, which would take him into his age-34 season. So how would Santander fit with the Blue Jays if he were to sign in Toronto? One thing is certain: they’d love to have his power. Over the past three seasons, Santander has blasted 105 home runs while running a .234 isolated slugging percentage. Among all players who have made at least 1,000 plate appearances, those numbers rank sixth, and 19th, respectively. In 2024, the Blue Jays ranked 26th and 22nd in those categories. Here are all 44 of Santander’s 2024 home runs.

That could be fun. Santander is coming off his first All-Star selection, his first Silver Slugger, and his first season earning MVP votes. Also, he led baseball with six homers off the Blue Jays in 2024. Since 2022, no one has hit more home runs off the Blue Jays than Santander. He and Aaron Judge are tied with 14. Maybe a deal would be worth it just to stop having to face the guy. Moreover, after a slow start to his career, Santander has been extremely consistent. He’s played in at least 110 games in each of the last four seasons, and at least 152 in each of the last three. He’s run a wRC+ above 119 (meaning his offensive performance was at least 19% better than a league-average hitter) in four of the last five seasons and each of the last three. He’s a switch-hitter who can hit both righties and lefties. Like many sluggers, he chases too much, but because he’s an excellent bad-ball hitter, he’s capable of running solid walk and strikeout rates. Inking him to a long-term deal means signing on for his decline years, and that’s a serious risk, but he’s starting from a great place and he’s been extremely consistent thus far.

On the other hand, Santander is a particularly poor defender. He’d certainly DH at times, but putting him in the Toronto outfield would truly be destroying something beautiful. Since the team landed Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer, setting up an outfield with three legitimate center fielders, Toronto has had the best outfield defense in baseball. From 2023 to 2024, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value says the outfield has been worth an MLB-best 48 fielding runs. Sports Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved metric has them at 93. That second figure is an astounding 35 runs ahead of the Brewers in second place — the Brewers and Red Sox were the only other teams to surpass 31 runs at all! With Kiermaier traded to the Dodgers and now retired, and with Springer entering his age-35 season, those defensive numbers are going to take a huge step back in 2025 no matter what; Daulton Varsho is an all-world defender, but he can’t do everything on his own. However, adding Santander would be adding insult to injury. Adding him to the team would cement Varsho as the full-time center fielder, while making sure that Nathan Lukes and Joey Loperfido remain depth pieces.

The combination of those two skills, with the bat giving and the glove taking away, has made Santander an above-average regular, worth between 2.3 and 3.3 fWAR in each of the past three seasons. The Blue Jays could certainly use a two- or three-win outfielder, and it's hard to imagine someone a player with a more consistent track record. However, the risk of age-related decline is real, and Santander is not enough to put the team over the top in an AL East that is somehow even more competitive than usual. It would be great to see the Blue Jays add a competitive piece, but even after signing him, there would be plenty of work left to do.