Predict Vladdy's Extension Contract

[John_Havok]

Yeah - I remember reading how he went from absolutely crushing fastballs (and meatball fastballs) to being well below average on those pitches in 2022/23. He found a way to correct that this year I believe.

 

2021 he was 34 RV in total on fastballs. Absolutely murdered them all season long.

 

2022 - 8

2023 - 1

2024 - 9

 

It wasnt what Vlad did against Fastballs this season, its what he did to nearly everything else. RVs on basically everything that wasn't a fastball were all way up.

 

If pitchers want to beat vlad.. honestly,all they should be doing is throwing inner half fastballs. All he tries to do with them is inside out them to RF. He'll loop some singles and occasional doubles, but he doesnt really hit inner half fastballs for power, especially middle-in and lower-in.

[BigCecil]

Probably been mentioned, but 2023's 1.3 WAR Vlad is the same guy who pre-emptively pronounced he would never play for the Yanks and then changed his tune to "its all business". Of course it is.

 

His Agent is trolling for a f*** ton, and the only way we extend is if we pay for a deal he can never overperform.

 

Its a huge bet for Rogers, and if they make it and this team rolls into post seasons with successes, its one they will happily live with. If not, it will impact payroll future roster construction decisions for a very long time. Thats why they make the big bucks.

[Olerud363]

But you wouldn't expect Soto to walk more hitting in front of Judge

 

Who wants to walk someone in front of Judge?

 

You would expect Soto to get more pitches to hit hard

 

that's the point. Soto still walked the same amount. Hitting in front of Judge did not decrease his walks.

 

I mean you could argue that he would have walked 170 times without Judge behind him... but we don't know that for sure. He walked at about his career rate anyway. It's not like he changed into a .350 hitter with 75 walks because of Judge (more balls to hit hard).

[Daniel Labude]

Vlad had no one. Soto had Aaron Judge. Soto still walked twice as much.

 

I mean this is the most extreme case you can find and both walked at their career rates... that is not true actually Soto walked like 18% with 18.8% career, and Vlad 10.0 % with 9.9% career.

 

So OK. Maybe there is a tiny bit of signal in there. Very tiny you can use it if you like tiny non-significant signal. In reality both had good seasons by their own standards, both walked near their career rates, one with the greatest hitter since Babe Ruth and greatest protector ever, one protected by Kirk and Howritz.

 

Its not a coincidence imo that Juan Soto had his best full season ever with Judge hitting behind him lol. I guess pop up park helped too

[Olerud363]

But you wouldn't expect Soto to walk more hitting in front of Judge

 

Who wants to walk someone in front of Judge?

 

You would expect Soto to get more pitches to hit hard

 

 

But what if throwing Soto strikes makes him a .350 hitter with 75 walks... the idea is to keep Soto off the bases in front of Judge, or more generally to decrease the number of Yankees runs. So some Strategy that walks Soto less could also get him on base more if he hits for a much higher average... and if he hits for more power too the 'pitch to Soto not Judge' strategy increases total Yankees runs. Who wants to use a strategy that increases Yankees runs?

 

Of course there are edge cases. Maybe he does get a walk off homerun he wouldn't of gotten without Judge... but his overall numbers? Not changed by Judge. He had exactly the year you'd expect given his career average performance and age.

[max silver]

Its not a coincidence imo that Juan Soto had his best full season ever with Judge hitting behind him lol. I guess pop up park helped too

 

I actually don't think Judge was that big of a factor. Soto actually tied the meatball percentage from the season before at 7%. The second best full time regular for the Padres produced a 119 wRC+ so he didn't have much in the way of "protection" on that team. Pitchers don't intentionally throw pitches down the middle ever to hitters like Soto, so having Judge behind him had no noteworthy improvement to the numbers of good pitches to hit that Soto received.

 

Soto took a massive leap forward in his quality of contact metrics with an overall xwOBACON of .519 over a full season compared to his previous best of .465. He actually performed a tiny bit better with the 2020 Covid shortened season's .527 xwOBACON, but that season was all of 2 months long. In this instance I think Soto fully earned all of the improved offensive numbers due to an improvement to his relative skill level.

 

I averaged out the expected home values for all 30 MLB parks, and Soto actually largely suffered a bit in total home runs at Yankee Stadium compared to the MLB average. He hit 42 home runs this season, and the MLB average is 45 home runs. One thing I noticed is it appeared as though Soto changed his overall approach to take advantage of the short porch. He posted a career high in pull rate to 42.3% vs 35.5% from the year prior as evidence of the altered approach.

Edited October 11, 2024 by max silver

[Spanky99]

why is fWAR wrong about Vlad's defense?

 

he is a minus defender by all of OAA, UZR, and DRS. the numbers are however much worse under OAA.

 

but fWAR uses UZR still, I think. it has only been dinging him for like -2 to -4 runs per year recently. not a big deal at all.

 

there is not a big delta in 1B UZR either. the best only get like +4 runs.

 

what is fWAR missing that is going to add so much to every year of Vlad's career? what is the specific gripe here?

 

Nothing is wrong with it, not to the level LTBF thinks, the only flaw here is listening or agreeing to his opinion. I'd like to see this algorithm he's figured out, on the defensive penalty of 1B.

[Brownie19]

Its not a coincidence imo that Juan Soto had his best full season ever with Judge hitting behind him lol. I guess pop up park helped too

 

SSS, but his best season was actually 2020 when he had Yan Gomez protecting him in the lineup.

 

Judge just had one of the best seasons of all time with 116 wRC+, double play magnet, Giancarlo Stanton "protecting" him.

Edited October 11, 2024 by Brownie19

[Funky]

With his age and already having 2 massive years under his belt I am going to say Devers with inflation. 10 years $360 with outs after 4 and 6.

 

As for if it is worth it or not, that is a legit question. Unfortunately this team was dog s*** for years with a few bright spots sprinkled here and there. I have no faith in this front office rebuilding with anything of substance any time soon and prospects seem to flame out more then hit. For selfish reasons I want him to remain a Jay for a long time as there was really no other reason to drag my ass to the ballpark game after game.