.265 to .245

[Joltin Joe]

Mentioned in last night's telecast batting average in MLB is .245. In 1993 MLB batting average was .265.

 

Seeing Ohtani and Judge chasing all-time records, I decided to dig a little deeper. I found power has increased. Back in '93, MLB hit 4,000 homeruns. It's up almost 50% to 5,800 last season. The 2024 season not complete yet.

[John_Havok]

Mentioned in last night's telecast batting average in MLB is .245. In 1993 MLB batting average was .265.

 

Seeing Ohtani and Judge chasing all-time records, I decided to dig a little deeper. I found power has increased. Back in '93, MLB hit 4,000 homeruns. It's up almost 50% to 5,800 last season. The 2024 season not complete yet.

 

Yes.

 

Now check the overall run environment from then to now. Are there more runs per game being scored now? Or fewer?

[Olerud363]

Yes.

 

Now check the overall run environment from then to now. Are there more runs per game being scored now? Or fewer?

 

4.71 runs per game in 1993, 4.33 now.

 

Mathematically it is better to hit for a higher average and get on base more, even if sacrificing a lot of power.

 

All the 'no power bros' would be good major league players if they hit .280 .340 .400 even. Problem is something is preventing things drifting to the optimal run scoring state, that is a little bit higher average at the expense of power. The pitching and defense is too good now maybe.

[Laika]

Yeah most players have to sell out for power or else they will suck

 

Pitching too good to get lots of singles and walks but you can guess right often enough to hit 15-20 homers

[Stangstag]

Yeah most players have to sell out for power or else they will suck

 

Pitching too good to get lots of singles and walks but you can guess right often enough to hit 15-20 homers

 

Also defensive positioning is wayyyy ahead of what they were doing 30 years ago. Groundball singles are probably way more rare than they were in the past.

[Olerud363]

Mentioned in last night's telecast batting average in MLB is .245. In 1993 MLB batting average was .265.

 

Seeing Ohtani and Judge chasing all-time records, I decided to dig a little deeper. I found power has increased. Back in '93, MLB hit 4,000 homeruns. It's up almost 50% to 5,800 last season. The 2024 season not complete yet.

 

1993 was the start of the steroid era with a big jump in runs scored. The current runs per game is similar to 1988 to 1992 (around 4.3). Except there are 40% more homers and twice as many strikeouts and the batting average is 20 points lower.

 

Who knows what Spencer Horwitz will be long term, but last couple years in Buffalo he was a .335 hitter with 10 homer power, know in the majors he is a .270 hitter with 20 homer power.

[Omar]

[Olerud363]

Yeah most players have to sell out for power or else they will suck

 

Pitching too good to get lots of singles and walks but you can guess right often enough to hit 15-20 homers

 

There was a fangraphs article recently about Kwan and Luis Aaraez and how extreme their approach is. Both have like the lowest bat speed in the majors and never swing hard.

 

Now we see Spencer. Spencer doesn't swing that hard I do not think. Spencer doesn't hit the ball super-hard... I mean for an MLB player. Maybe average or a bit below. Spencer launches them at 101 mph, sometimes he pulls dat ball. Sometimes not. But he has hit 420 foot homers off of 102 mph exit V.

 

There are some hints that mlb players can be successful without elite exit V. In Howritz, Clemente, Kasevitch, Wagner, and Roden, Jays have a collection of guys that could hit .270. Couldn't they? If they all found defensive homes, that is like a cheap supplementary group to a couple of stars.

 

The "money-ball inefficiency" these days, might be some of these players who look like they belong in 1988... but the math still works. If you score 765 runs 1988 style the runs still count. It's more a question of could these guys hit .270 as a group (which is a very good average for 2024) or would modern baseball kick their nuts in, they'd hit .240 and not find defensive homes anyway.

[Olerud363]

There was a fangraphs article recently about Kwan and Luis Aaraez and how extreme their approach is. Both have like the lowest bat speed in the majors and never swing hard.

 

Aaraez doesn't quite work as an MLB player because his defense is the same as the obese version of Vlad Jr.

 

Kwan must be hitting about .100 the last couple months or something as his average has cratered.

 

Spencer is doing OK but haven't seen a full season yet.

 

Not saying these low bat speed players are working quite.... just that there are hints they could work.

[John_Havok]

Aaraez doesn't quite work as an MLB player because his defense is the same as the obese version of Vlad Jr.

 

Kwan must be hitting about .100 the last couple months or something as his average has cratered.

 

Spencer is doing OK but haven't seen a full season yet.

 

Not saying these low bat speed players are working quite.... just that there are hints they could work.

 

I just think hitting for average is now known to not be overly "valuable" as it's own skillset, unless you're at the upper upper upper tier like Ichiro ... or Gwynn.

[Brownie19]

I just think hitting for average is now known to not be overly "valuable" as it's own skillset, unless you're at the upper upper upper tier like Ichiro ... or Gwynn.

 

I think I disagree. I think it's still quite valuable, but as Laika said, the pitching is too good for most players to have success hitting for average.

[Laika]

It's also highly variable. LD rate and BABIP are hard to project.

 

So you can be a true talent .290 hitter but when you hit tough luck you f***ing suck. See Bichette, Bo.

[Laika]

There was a fangraphs article recently about Kwan and Luis Aaraez and how extreme their approach is. Both have like the lowest bat speed in the majors and never swing hard.

 

Now we see Spencer. Spencer doesn't swing that hard I do not think. Spencer doesn't hit the ball super-hard... I mean for an MLB player. Maybe average or a bit below. Spencer launches them at 101 mph, sometimes he pulls dat ball. Sometimes not. But he has hit 420 foot homers off of 102 mph exit V.

 

There are some hints that mlb players can be successful without elite exit V. In Howritz, Clemente, Kasevitch, Wagner, and Roden, Jays have a collection of guys that could hit .270. Couldn't they? If they all found defensive homes, that is like a cheap supplementary group to a couple of stars.

 

The "money-ball inefficiency" these days, might be some of these players who look like they belong in 1988... but the math still works. If you score 765 runs 1988 style the runs still count. It's more a question of could these guys hit .270 as a group (which is a very good average for 2024) or would modern baseball kick their nuts in, they'd hit .240 and not find defensive homes anyway.

 

Well there will always be exceptions. Kwan and Arraez are very rare archetypes.

 

There have been other players of different styles who had careers built on batting average. Tim Anderson comes to mind.

 

Horwitz is probably a somewhat basic hitter actually. Just a good approach and 15-20 HR power.

 

Yeah the Jays might be trying to find these "sneaky good" hitters at the end of the roster. Have a handful now. When everyone in the league is chasing exit velo and barrels you can't just chase the same skills and expect to be good.

 

But you could argue that Toronto overdid it and that's part of why they blew up. Too much reliance on avg. The Bo, Kirk, Vlad all weren't getting hits at the same time. I dunno. Not enough oomph.

[John_Havok]

It's also highly variable. LD rate and BABIP are hard to project.

 

So you can be a true talent .290 hitter but when you hit tough luck you f***ing suck. See Bichette, Bo.

 

Yes, this is what Ii was attempting to get at with my statement that it's not as valuable, since it's highly variable. Power output is also variable in the sense that a player can't control when a pitcher throws a hanging slider and power output isn't very stable (like 4 HRs in a week, then nothing for 2 weeks... ) but the outcomes are far more impactful when they happen.

[Olerud363]

I just think hitting for average is now known to not be overly "valuable" as it's own skillset, unless you're at the upper upper upper tier like Ichiro ... or Gwynn.

 

Aaeraz has better wRC+ than Ichiro. Arraez is a better hitter than Ichiro if you compare their first 5 seasons in the big leagues.

 

The difference is entirely defense and baserunning. 2001 Ichiro had a .360 wOBA. 2023 Arraez had a .369 wOBA.

 

The sucky version of Arraez (2024) is a better hitter than sucky Ichiro (2005) or so.

 

Like when they hit .350 Arraez is a better hitter. When they hit .310 Arraez is a better hitter. That is because Arraez plays in a tougher league.

 

But Ichiro is 3-5 WAR better at baserunning and defense (lol).

[Olerud363]

Yes, this is what Ii was attempting to get at with my statement that it's not as valuable, since it's highly variable. Power output is also variable in the sense that a player can't control when a pitcher throws a hanging slider and power output isn't very stable (like 4 HRs in a week, then nothing for 2 weeks... ) but the outcomes are far more impactful when they happen.

 

No. Because batting average is still variable for the power hitter.

 

Guerrero, Vladimir, Jr.

 

Power ranges from lots (48) to some (26)

 

Average ranges from happy (.320) to not as happey (.260)

 

WAR ranges from 1 to 6

 

Variability. Like the variance. Like highs and lows. Happens to the power hitters just as much.

[Olerud363]

Yeah the Jays might be trying to find these "sneaky good" hitters at the end of the roster. Have a handful now. When everyone in the league is chasing exit velo and barrels you can't just chase the same skills and expect to be good.

 

But you could argue that Toronto overdid it and that's part of why they blew up. Too much reliance on avg. The Bo, Kirk, Vlad all weren't getting hits at the same time. I dunno. Not enough oomph.

 

Maybe if they had low variance power hitters like Matt Olson or Pete Alonso it all would have been OK.

 

The expectation of number of hits from Bo/Kirk/Vlad if hits came randomly gets more stable with more at bats. An entire team can get crushed by randomness, but like random injuries, not like random variability of 6500 PAs... if you simulated it, while individual players would have amazing highs and lows (like a true talent .300 hitter can be .250 or .350 by luck) that would stabalize a lot more over 6500 PAs compared to 650.

 

That's if Random. If non-random, like Covid outbreak, bad hitting tips, too much partying... or maybe opposing team has to scout only one type of hitter.... but that is non-random.

[Olerud363]

Maybe if they had low variance power hitters like Matt Olson or Pete Alonso it all would have been OK.

 

The expectation of number of hits from Bo/Kirk/Vlad if hits came randomly gets more stable with more at bats. An entire team can get crushed by randomness, but like random injuries, not like random variability of 6500 PAs... if you simulated it, while individual players would have amazing highs and lows (like a true talent .300 hitter can be .250 or .350 by luck) that would stabalize a lot more over 6500 PAs compared to 650.

 

That's if Random. If non-random, like Covid outbreak, bad hitting tips, too much partying... or maybe opposing team has to scout only one type of hitter.... but that is non-random.

 

It's like 2 types of randomness...

 

Randomness of true talent .260 hitter... if simulated true talent .260 hitter over 100, 200, 1000, 6500 at bats what level of variance is expected?

 

Then randomness of change in true talent level. Like .260 hitter gets good hitting tip, now .280 hitter... like obese .240 hitter goes for the Ozempic, now .280 hitter...

 

Like team finds sign stealing scheme, or undetectable steroid (a.k.a. women's health products) provider... now true talent level randomly changes for reason, but random reason (like they meet right steroid dealer by random chance)

[harvey16]

Would be curious to see what the average pitch velocity is now compared to 30 years ago? I remember back in the Jays WS days, 95 mph was considered serious gas, now there are so many pitchers that can throw 100 mph+ and bullpen are so much better! It makes sense that HR are up and averages are down. Ball is gonna travel further off a 100 mph pitch then a 90 mph pitch, but 100 mph pitch is gonna miss alot more bats. I wouldn't be surprised if offense continues to trend downward that we don't see some type of modification to the pitching mound, like they did in 1969 when they lowered the mound 5 inches. Mind you offensive numbers were much lower in 1968 then they are today though batting averages are about the same now as they were in 1968.

[Olerud363]

Would be curious to see what the average pitch velocity is now compared to 30 years ago? I remember back in the Jays WS days, 95 mph was considered serious gas, now there are so many pitchers that can throw 100 mph+ and bullpen are so much better! It makes sense that HR are up and averages are down. Ball is gonna travel further off a 100 mph pitch then a 90 mph pitch, but 100 mph pitch is gonna miss alot more bats. I wouldn't be surprised if offense continues to trend downward that we don't see some type of modification to the pitching mound, like they did in 1969 when they lowered the mound 5 inches. Mind you offensive numbers were much lower in 1968 then they are today though batting averages are about the same now as they were in 1968.

 

I was joking that Nimalla projects to hit .190 but good news is .190 with power, a few walks, and playing a good short stop will be a 5 WAR player by 2028 when the league average will be .220 or something...

 

Might not be joking.

[Brownie19]

They did also adjust where they measure velo from and it's increased the numbers (some)

[Joltin Joe]

1993 was the start of the steroid era with a big jump in runs scored. The current runs per game is similar to 1988 to 1992 (around 4.3). Except there are 40% more homers and twice as many strikeouts and the batting average is 20 points lower.

 

Who knows what Spencer Horwitz will be long term, but last couple years in Buffalo he was a .335 hitter with 10 homer power, know in the majors he is a .270 hitter with 20 homer power.

 

They going for power now. Which increases strikeouts. Runs scored up 10% from 1988.

Edited September 11, 2024 by Joltin Joe

[Olerud363]

They going for power now. Which increases strikeouts. Runs scored up 10% from 1988.

 

Some of that is the DH is no longer used in NL. AL only runs scored is the same as 1988.

 

That was the first year I started watching and I remember Rance Mullinicks. Don't know his exit Velocities but they probably sucked. Rance got to hit .300 with 9 homers a few times anyway.

 

They didn't even let poor Rance play against lefties.

 

Cecil Fielder probably had totally awesome exit V but nobody gave a s***, which turned out pretty brutal when old Rance and old Pat Tabler had to DH in '91 instead of Cecil Fielder and his (likely) 118 mph top exit V.

 

(don't blame for this 90s Blue Jays rant, this other guy brought it up, and the topic is 1993, 2024 and reasons for the differences...)