SERIES: GDT Reds @ Jays

[Spanky99]

lol Enie never walks

 

2 days in a row...

[Jaysareus]

Swanson lol

[Jaysareus]

Schneider won't be making this team next year

[hanton]

WTF that cannot happen

[Steeljays]

Schneider won't be making this team next year

 

He had his 15 minutes. Too many other guys better. If he can't adjust, he is just a player for buffalo

[Steeljays]

Swanson lol

 

 

Guy no longer fits in. Need to resolve this at winter meetings

[Spanky99]

Who is this Ernie Kid, lol?

[Spanky99]

Fugly pitching out of the pen, right when I was thinking TV Dinner turned a corner and BAMMM!

[jaysblue]

Swanson lol

 

Wouldn't surprise me if he's a non-tender candidate this winter.

[Spanky99]

Wouldn't surprise me if he's a non-tender candidate this winter.

 

lol

[BTS]

Wouldn't surprise me if he's a non-tender candidate this winter.

 

He will be. They're not paying him 4M or whatever coming off this season.

[Spanky99]

He will be. They're not paying him 4M or whatever coming off this season.

 

I find that highly unlikely. They'll give him a mulligan.

[Joltin Joe]

Two 4 win seasons is nothing great?

 

He couldn't have with us. I remember him not that good

[Laika]

I find that highly unlikely. They'll give him a mulligan.

 

Maybe if he agrees to a pay cut

[Terminator]

He will be. They're not paying him 4M or whatever coming off this season.

 

Yeah 1 year and ~4M will get you an interesting bullpen arm in FA. Guys who signed for around that last year are:

 

-Brent Suter

-Adam Ottavino

-Kirby Yates

-Chris Stratton

-Ryan Stanek

-Andrew Chafin

-Daniel Hudson

 

It wouldn't be too egregious to bring Swanson back but the team would need to have some confidence that whatever happened this season is easily correctable in the offseason. Otherwise they could roll the dice on someone more likely to produce.

[jaysblue]

Yeah 1 year and ~4M will get you an interesting bullpen arm in FA. Guys who signed for around that last year are:

 

-Brent Suter

-Adam Ottavino

-Kirby Yates

-Chris Stratton

-Ryan Stanek

-Andrew Chafin

-Daniel Hudson

 

It wouldn't be too egregious to bring Swanson back but the team would need to have some confidence that whatever happened this season is easily correctable in the offseason. Otherwise they could roll the dice on someone more likely to produce.

 

Kirby Yates having a really darn good year at 37-years-old. 70 K's in 48.1 innings along with 22 saves. Shocked the Rangers never tried to shop him at the deadline.

 

Great seeing Daniel Hudson as well having success with the Dodgers. Despite his injuries and not being able to start anymore, he carved out a really nice career out of the bullpen.

[Terminator]

I guess the nice thing about Swanson is that when you tender him @ 1 year, 4 mil you are also getting another year of control which is the equivalent of a team option for 6 mil. That's not bad for a reliever with his upside.

 

But he's been so terrible this year it's tough to justify the 4 mil and he's now out of options.

[Brownie19]

I guess the nice thing about Swanson is that when you tender him @ 1 year, 4 mil you are also getting another year of control which is the equivalent of a team option for 6 mil. That's not bad for a reliever with his upside.

 

But he's been so terrible this year it's tough to justify the 4 mil and he's now out of options.

 

What's ironic is that if Swanson wasn't on the Blue Jays, he'd probably be the type of guy we'd identify as a good bounce back candidate for 3-4 million next year.

 

Yates hadn't been good since 2019

Hudson is 37 and pitched 3 innings last year

Ottavino is 38 and sucked last year

 

Swanson had 2 good seasons prior to this one, the velo is the same, the results are not. He did deal with some very difficult family situations in the spring, plus a strained elbow (I think) - but no idea if that still has any impact. He's probably a decent candidate to rebound.

[Terminator]

What's ironic is that if Swanson wasn't on the Blue Jays, he'd probably be the type of guy we'd identify as a good bounce back candidate for 3-4 million next year.

 

Yates hadn't been good since 2019

Hudson is 37 and pitched 3 innings last year

Ottavino is 38 and sucked last year

 

Swanson had 2 good seasons prior to this one, the velo is the same, the results are not. He did deal with some very difficult family situations in the spring, plus a strained elbow (I think) - but no idea if that still has any impact. He's probably a decent candidate to rebound.

 

Yeah good points. I'm on the fence with him. The team is working with more info than we are so if they bring him back I will assume that they have a good reason to do so. It's dangerous to defer to the Atkins regime around these parts anymore but that's where I am at.

[Laika]

What's ironic is that if Swanson wasn't on the Blue Jays, he'd probably be the type of guy we'd identify as a good bounce back candidate for 3-4 million next year.

 

Yates hadn't been good since 2019

Hudson is 37 and pitched 3 innings last year

Ottavino is 38 and sucked last year

 

Swanson had 2 good seasons prior to this one, the velo is the same, the results are not. He did deal with some very difficult family situations in the spring, plus a strained elbow (I think) - but no idea if that still has any impact. He's probably a decent candidate to rebound.

 

His stuff+ is about the same but his command has cratered. It went from average in his career (100 location+) to about two whole standard deviations below average (94 location+).

 

That's minus minus command, out of nowhere.

 

It's possible that he has the yips or something based on what happened with his kid in spring...

 

Zero qualified SP have a 94 location+

 

There are only 17 qualified RP with location+ of that or worse and it's mostly guys like Genesis Cabrera, Greg Soto, Austin Adams, Trevor Richards, Reed Garrett, Scott Barlow, Lucas Sims.... guys who either spam breaking balls because they have horrible fastballs or guys who just have no idea how to throw strikes.

[Orgfiller]

His stuff+ is about the same but his command has cratered. It went from average in his career (100 location+) to about two whole standard deviations below average (94 location+).

 

That's minus minus command, out of nowhere.

 

It's possible that he has the yips or something based on what happened with his kid in spring...

 

Zero qualified SP have a 94 location+

 

There are only 17 qualified RP with location+ of that or worse and it's mostly guys like Genesis Cabrera, Greg Soto, Austin Adams, Trevor Richards, Reed Garrett, Scott Barlow, Lucas Sims.... guys who either spam breaking balls because they have horrible fastballs or guys who just have no idea how to throw strikes.

 

Not that anything you said is incorrect, but it appears RPs have higher standard deviations of Location+ than SPs do. I have to imagine that has to do with relievers being able to get away with poor control/walks over a short stint, but a starter going multiple innings won't. A reliever can get away with walking a guy every ~1.5-2 innings, but as a starter that's awful and means you're likely not sticking in the rotation much longer.

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/

 

If you scroll down to the Pitching+ section, you'll see the chart have it as 3.34 SD for SPs, and 5.87 for RPs. If you check out Swanson's page, he's dropped from 98 Location+ to 94, so reasonably within one standard deviation (for a reliever). His Stuff+ actually got better(?) on his two secondary pitches, but it went from garbage to abysmal on his fastball, and his Location+ on his splitter cratered as well. So the splitter is more or less as good as it used to be, the slider has actually been somewhat better, but the fastball became unplayable.

[Omar]

His stuff+ is about the same but his command has cratered. It went from average in his career (100 location+) to about two whole standard deviations below average (94 location+).

 

That's minus minus command, out of nowhere.

 

It's possible that he has the yips or something based on what happened with his kid in spring...

 

Zero qualified SP have a 94 location+

 

There are only 17 qualified RP with location+ of that or worse and it's mostly guys like Genesis Cabrera, Greg Soto, Austin Adams, Trevor Richards, Reed Garrett, Scott Barlow, Lucas Sims.... guys who either spam breaking balls because they have horrible fastballs or guys who just have no idea how to throw strikes.

 

Kind of good news though isn't it. Traditionally command can be rejuvenated but stuff not so much. As Brownie noted above, could be an ideal bounce back candidate.

[Spanky99]

What's ironic is that if Swanson wasn't on the Blue Jays, he'd probably be the type of guy we'd identify as a good bounce back candidate for 3-4 million next year.

 

Yates hadn't been good since 2019

Hudson is 37 and pitched 3 innings last year

Ottavino is 38 and sucked last year

 

Swanson had 2 good seasons prior to this one, the velo is the same, the results are not. He did deal with some very difficult family situations in the spring, plus a strained elbow (I think) - but no idea if that still has any impact. He's probably a decent candidate to rebound.

 

This is why he'll be tendered a contract. Book it.