Vlad/Spencer/Kwan/Varsho

[Olerud363]

Some players to discuss.

 

Kwan - doesn't seem like he's hitting the ball harder this year. Just a slightly better launch angle. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/steven-kwan-680757?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Vlad - hits the ball as hard as anyone but 5 degree launch angle is the long known problem - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Spencer - hits ball harder than Kwan. Swings harder than Kwan. Doesn't swing hard. (small sample size) xObA .389 higher than Vlad's .384. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/spencer-horwitz-687462?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Varsho - hits ball harder than Kwan or Spencer, but not that hard. Has a 27 degree launch angle. Apparently this is a problem as his expected stats are obscene. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/daulton-varsho-662139?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb

 

14 degree launch good even if you don't hit ball hard

 

If Vlad had 14 degree launch angle he'd win multiple triple crowns.

 

It's easy to see how a team like the blue Jays could have looked at the data and thought that if they got everyone with a nice launch angle they didn't have to hit the ball too hard....

 

Fixing launch seems to be really hard. If Vlad and Varsho had 14 degree launch angles they'd be combined 20 WAR or something.

[MikeM3]

Sweet spot % > average launch angle. You can also hit the ball too hard to succeed on sweet spot launches.

[Olerud363]

Sweet spot % > average launch angle. You can also hit the ball too hard to succeed on sweet spot launches.

 

Do you mean if you hit the ball at 12 degrees or something there is point where if you hit it too hard the expected average goes down?

 

Is that because it goes far enough to the outfield that they catch it? I would think there is just as much chance it gets in the gap in that case.

 

I would assume that for an average launch angle a with standard deviation s that expected xwObA would go up as a function of exit velocity.

 

For an average exit velocity v with a launch angle a with standard deviation s expected xwOba would go up the closer a is to 14 (or something).

 

I think I learned this from George Constanza.

 

So for Vlad his performance would go up the closer his average launch angle got to 14.

For Varsho his performance would go up the closer his average launch angle got to 14.

For Kwan/Spencer their performance would go up if their exit velocity got higher (and everything was the same). Those two would become Pujols if they had higher exit velocity. Vlad would become Pujols if he had launch angle = 14.

[Olerud363]

For Kwan/Spencer their performance would go up if their exit velocity got higher (and everything was the same). Those two would become Pujols if they had higher exit velocity. Vlad would become Pujols if he had launch angle = 14.

 

If your name is not Albert Pujols (with reported age = twenty something) then even if everything isn't optimized you can do OK

 

a) If your launch angle is messed up you can be a good (but not legendary) hitter if exit velocity is elite.

 

If your exit velocity is not elite you can be a good (but not Pujols like) hitter if launch angle is optimized.

[MikeM3]

Do you mean if you hit the ball at 12 degrees or something there is point where if you hit it too hard the expected average goes down?

 

Is that because it goes far enough to the outfield that they catch it? I would think there is just as much chance it gets in the gap in that case.

 

I would assume that for an average launch angle a with standard deviation s that expected xwObA would go up as a function of exit velocity.

 

For an average exit velocity v with a launch angle a with standard deviation s expected xwOba would go up the closer a is to 14 (or something).

 

I think I learned this from George Constanza.

 

So for Vlad his performance would go up the closer his average launch angle got to 14.

For Varsho his performance would go up the closer his average launch angle got to 14.

For Kwan/Spencer their performance would go up if their exit velocity got higher (and everything was the same). Those two would become Pujols if they had higher exit velocity. Vlad would become Pujols if he had launch angle = 14.

 

I should rephrase to say that I believe there's a small window where less exit velo is optimal on flares.

 

Vlad would become Pujols with higher sweet spot %, not necessarily average launch. Because 0, 0, 42 = 14 right. There's 3 balls with no good angles but average is 14.

 

The Orioles only draft dudes who already have good VBAs and just give them weighted bats. It's like command for hitters

 

Freddie Freeman runs like a 50% sweet spot. When he's 40 years old and his EV dips to like 87, he'll become Arraez

[Laika]

Yes I think trying to coach up sweet spot% or launch angle is way too hard. It's basically trying to coach up HIT TOOL.

 

Certain guys may be able to deploy tricks to change their launch angle, or fix their mechanics, or alter their swing plane a bit. But many (most) these days won't be able to meaningfully change it intentionally because they won't have the barrel control to do it.

 

A lot of the famous examples of guys increasing their LA and pulling the ball more for homers are really, in a fundamental way, examples of players who were already pretty good hitters (in a basic sense - HIT TOOL) before making the changes. Justin Turner - was hitting for average and making contact before his tweaks so the barrel control was already there. Jose Bautista - had good PD stats before the changes and obviously had a good hit tool in hindsight.

 

There has been some semblance of the Blue Jays trying to take guys with "good hit tools" and coach up power. Clement, Horwitz, all the minor leaguers like Roden and Jimemez who don't have good raw power grades. Kirk.

 

But the Jays are probably 5+ years behind the eight ball, yet again, because other teams are already looking at things more specific and granular than "hit tool" as MikeM says they are looking at VBAs and stuff.

 

This might be why the Jays have a certain collection of organization guys with "good hit tools" but there has been a general failure to coach up or develop any power. They have the general idea right but are getting lapped or outcompeted on the specific implementation of it.

 

Hit Tool - old school scouting concept, define it how you want. some would say bat control. some would like at K% but that's very indirect.

Launch Angle - objective, measurable but not necessarily that helpful in all circumstances. THIS IS AN OUTPUT.

Sweet Spot% - objective, measurable. THIS IS AN OUTPUT.

Hard hit% - objective, measurable. THIS IS AN OUTPUT.

Barrels etc (some combo of hard hit and sweet spot or LA) - objective, measurable. THIS IS AN OUTPUT.

VBA - measurable, THIS IS AN INPUT.

Bat speed - measurable, THIS IS AN INPUT.

Biomechanics - measurable, THIS IS AN INPUT OF THE INPUTS!!!

 

What do the Jays look at? What do the best teams look at? To be ahead of the game you need to find the significant INPUTS. If you look at outputs you are probably lagging.

[MikeM3]

It's most likely some biomechanical analysis of whether an optimal VBA is even attainable for some hitters. Some orgs might even evaluate Vlads body and say it's impossible for him to have a bat path like Judge. Don't Want. His success is based solely on his ability to time up the contact point at such a specific interval, because he's on plane for 0.0000001 seconds.

 

I don't even think hit tool is even a necessary scouting grade.

 

You're basically looking at someone's ability to rotate fast. Which is why the Dodgers traded for Zyhir Hope (innate God tier rotation) and their natural vba. Then I guess you're looking at the ability to square the baseball. But the imparting of spin on the ball plays a bigger factor than we originally realized.

 

I don't really know if smart teams give a s*** anymore if you can flail at a slider off the plate and make contact

[hanton]

Some players to discuss.

 

Kwan - doesn't seem like he's hitting the ball harder this year. Just a slightly better launch angle. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/steven-kwan-680757?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Vlad - hits the ball as hard as anyone but 5 degree launch angle is the long known problem - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Spencer - hits ball harder than Kwan. Swings harder than Kwan. Doesn't swing hard. (small sample size) xObA .389 higher than Vlad's .384. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/spencer-horwitz-687462?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Varsho - hits ball harder than Kwan or Spencer, but not that hard. Has a 27 degree launch angle. Apparently this is a problem as his expected stats are obscene. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/daulton-varsho-662139?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb

 

14 degree launch good even if you don't hit ball hard

 

If Vlad had 14 degree launch angle he'd win multiple triple crowns.

 

It's easy to see how a team like the blue Jays could have looked at the data and thought that if they got everyone with a nice launch angle they didn't have to hit the ball too hard....

 

Fixing launch seems to be really hard. If Vlad and Varsho had 14 degree launch angles they'd be combined 20 WAR or something.

 

well first you have to believe in it, Mattingly and by extension the Jays don't seem to or maybe they think launch agnle can't be improved and is just an outcome (?). It can be improved. I think teams are going to be using Bat Tracking and Stuff+ (on the pitching side) as tools for improving hitters and pitchers by tweaking the variables that go into those stats. eg. a longer Swing Lengh = hitting the ball further

[Olerud363]

Vlad would become Pujols with higher sweet spot %, not necessarily average launch. Because 0, 0, 42 = 14 right. There's 3 balls with no good angles but average is 14.

 

True. However it would be weird to have a bimodal distribution like that. I assume that the standard deviation of launch angle is similar for most players.

 

However maybe that is not true. If you have launch angle of 14 with very high standard deviation than you are hitting a tonne of popups and ground balls anyway.

 

If you had some weird guy that had super low standard deviation maybe the defense could play him... lol. In the extreme if some guy always hit at 14 degrees you'd just play everyone in the outfield.

[Olerud363]

well first you have to believe in it, Mattingly and by extension the Jays don't seem to or maybe they think launch agnle can't be improved and is just an outcome (?). It can be improved. I think teams are going to be using Bat Tracking and Stuff+ (on the pitching side) as tools for improving hitters and pitchers by tweaking the variables that go into those stats. eg. a longer Swing Lengh = hitting the ball further

 

One possibility is that Mattingly and Jays did think they could help guys with launch angle, but just failed spectacularly at it....

 

It is almost hilarious that we have a 5 degree launch angle guy and a 25 degree launch angle guy and no one can fix them.

 

(25 degree launch angle would be awesome with low standard deviation, but I guess with normal standard deviation 25 is not good because too many popups and not enough sweet spot)

[MikeM3]

True. However it would be weird to have a bimodal distribution like that. I assume that the standard deviation of launch angle is similar for most players.

 

However maybe that is not true. If you have launch angle of 14 with very high standard deviation than you are hitting a tonne of popups and ground balls anyway.

 

If you had some weird guy that had super low standard deviation maybe the defense could play him... lol. In the extreme if some guy always hit at 14 degrees you'd just play everyone in the outfield.

 

Not quite bimodal but Corbin Carroll represents what I'm talking about the most. Because of his insanely steep attack angle (which he even acknowledged), he has a 26% pop up and a 25% sweet spot which is extremely low. Just those 2 numbers can tell you his attack angle because when you swing down on a ball you're either smashing it into the ground or clipping it straight into the air.

 

But his average launch is 10.. not that bad right? But his swing is terrible right now

[John_Havok]

well first you have to believe in it, Mattingly and by extension the Jays don't seem to or maybe they think launch agnle can't be improved and is just an outcome (?). It can be improved. I think teams are going to be using Bat Tracking and Stuff+ (on the pitching side) as tools for improving hitters and pitchers by tweaking the variables that go into those stats. eg. a longer Swing Lengh = hitting the ball further

 

Whatever we have that is publicly available, Stuff + and bat tracking etc... teams have stuff that's way more in depth.

[John_Havok]

One possibility is that Mattingly and Jays did think they could help guys with launch angle, but just failed spectacularly at it....

 

It is almost hilarious that we have a 5 degree launch angle guy and a 25 degree launch angle guy and no one can fix them.

 

(25 degree launch angle would be awesome with low standard deviation, but I guess with normal standard deviation 25 is not good because too many popups and not enough sweet spot)

 

If it was easy to "fix" there'd be a lot of really good hitters in the major leagues.

[John_Havok]

Not quite bimodal but Corbin Carroll represents what I'm talking about the most. Because of his insanely steep attack angle (which he even acknowledged), he has a 26% pop up and a 25% sweet spot which is extremely low. Just those 2 numbers can tell you his attack angle because when you swing down on a ball you're either smashing it into the ground or clipping it straight into the air.

 

But his average launch is 10.. not that bad right? But his swing is terrible right now

 

Wasn't there a story from the Jays about Matt Hague working with Clement on the steepness of his attack angle? It seemed to pay dividends early on and he hit a few dingers but now teams just don't throw him fastballs and it doesn't matter much again for him.

 

Not that the angle isn't important, just that it's only 1 factor.

[MikeM3]

Wasn't there a story from the Jays about Matt Hague working with Clement on the steepness of his attack angle? It seemed to pay dividends early on and he hit a few dingers but now teams just don't throw him fastballs and it doesn't matter much again for him.

 

Not that the angle isn't important, just that it's only 1 factor.

 

Ya there's mutants like Seager who change swing paths to match the opposing pitcher

[hanton]

Ya there's mutants like Seager who change swing paths to match the opposing pitcher

 

a product of Dodgers development system, if you have an article on that I'd like to see it

[hanton]

Whatever we have that is publicly available, Stuff + and bat tracking etc... teams have stuff that's way more in depth.

 

We only know, for a fact, that teams have similar pitch graders, we do not know much more; no one does.

[Olerud363]

There has been some semblance of the Blue Jays trying to take guys with "good hit tools" and coach up power. Clement, Horwitz, all the minor leaguers like Roden and Jimemez who don't have good raw power grades. Kirk.

 

But the Jays are probably 5+ years behind the eight ball, yet again, because other teams are already looking at things more specific and granular than "hit tool" as MikeM says they are looking at VBAs and stuff.

 

This might be why the Jays have a certain collection of organization guys with "good hit tools" but there has been a general failure to coach up or develop any power. They have the general idea right but are getting lapped or outcompeted on the specific implementation of it.

 

If Kirk could land somewhere between his 2022 and 2023 performance it would be fine. If Jansen could have maintained his .247 average he had as a rookie it would have been fine. If Bo Bichette could have hit .285 this year things would be fine. If Cavan Biggio could have hit .250 he would have been fine.

 

I don't think there is an issue sacrificing some power for average if it worked. Sacrificing average and power for nothing is dumb though.

[John_Havok]

We only know, for a fact, that teams have similar pitch graders, we do not know much more; no one does.

 

More than 1 poster from this board went on to work for the Jays, and other teams nerd departments. They have confirmed what I said. Publically available stuff is behind what teams have internally. Doesn't mean the publically available stuff is meaningless and not used, just that it's not as detailed and nuanced. Internally they look at things in different ways also.

[Brownie19]

Wasn't there a story from the Jays about Matt Hague working with Clement on the steepness of his attack angle? It seemed to pay dividends early on and he hit a few dingers but now teams just don't throw him fastballs and it doesn't matter much again for him.

 

Not that the angle isn't important, just that it's only 1 factor.

 

Varsho made adjustments to the angle of his bat to help adjust the steepness of his attack angle this year.

[Brownie19]

More than 1 poster from this board went on to work for the Jays, and other teams nerd departments. They have confirmed what I said. Publically available stuff is behind what teams have internally. Doesn't mean the publically available stuff is meaningless and not used, just that it's not as detailed and nuanced. Internally they look at things in different ways also.

 

This seems obvious...

[Terminator]

Varsho made adjustments to the angle of his bat to help adjust the steepness of his attack angle this year.

 

He might need to tone it down unless he wants to hit a buck ninety moving forward

[Brownie19]

He might need to tone it down unless he wants to hit a buck ninety moving forward

 

The adjustments were made to level off his swing, reduce pop ups, etc. I'm not sure if the changes are actually working (ie, if his approach angle has actually changed or not), but obviously the results aren't great so far.

[hanton]

More than 1 poster from this board went on to work for the Jays, and other teams nerd departments. They have confirmed what I said. Publically available stuff is behind what teams have internally. Doesn't mean the publically available stuff is meaningless and not used, just that it's not as detailed and nuanced. Internally they look at things in different ways also.

 

A SE will take Stuff+ and Bat Tracking and add inputs to improve on their own models, this is especially cost effective because it means not having to recreate the wheel. Creating these models cost $$$. As I stated all teams have pitch graders - do they specifically have Stuff+ and Bat Tracking?; ask thsoe posters see what they say, I would be interested in hearing from them.

[L54]

The adjustments were made to level off his swing, reduce pop ups, etc. I'm not sure if the changes are actually working (ie, if his approach angle has actually changed or not), but obviously the results aren't great so far.

 

I think it’s safe to say they’re not working

[Olerud363]

The adjustments were made to level off his swing, reduce pop ups, etc. I'm not sure if the changes are actually working (ie, if his approach angle has actually changed or not), but obviously the results aren't great so far.

 

His infield fly rate and launch angle are at career highs. Kind of funny how both Vlad and Varsho deviate from the optimal launch angle by about the same amount.

 

I wonder what they would be like if you reversed their launch angles.

 

Would Varsho beat out grounders and low line drives towards the gap would be doubles? Or would his lower exit velocity just mean everything is an out.

 

Would Vlad hit .240 with 50 homers? Or are pop-ups pop-ups and no one can do good with a 20% infield fly rate.

[Laika]

His infield fly rate and launch angle are at career highs. Kind of funny how both Vlad and Varsho deviate from the optimal launch angle by about the same amount.

 

I wonder what they would be like if you reversed their launch angles.

 

Would Varsho beat out grounders and low line drives towards the gap would be doubles? Or would his lower exit velocity just mean everything is an out.

 

Would Vlad hit .240 with 50 homers? Or are pop-ups pop-ups and no one can do good with a 20% infield fly rate.

 

Extreme pull and flyball rates, but with a better contact rate and way more max power...

 

It would be like some amalgamation of Jose Ramirez and Kyle Schwarber

 

Can think of it like Schwarber with a touch more power and a lot more AVG because half of the K rate.

Or think of it like Jose Ramirez with more homers, more raw power.

 

 

I don't really think Varsho's issue can be characterized as a simple launch angle problem. It's really a total "s***** hitter" problem. So many bad swings.

[Olerud363]

Extreme pull and flyball rates, but with a better contact rate and way more max power...

 

It would be like some amalgamation of Jose Ramirez and Kyle Schwarber

 

Can think of it like Schwarber with a touch more power and a lot more AVG because half of the K rate.

Or think of it like Jose Ramirez with more homers, more raw power.

 

 

I don't really think Varsho's issue can be characterized as a simple launch angle problem. It's really a total "s***** hitter" problem. So many bad swings.

 

Vlad is the same in some ways. Bad swings at pitches low and away that he can't do anything with other than ground out to the left side (or occasionally get it through for a couple of RBIs).

 

One reason I could end up looking like a fool on the Nimalla thing is that his k-rate may be really high because he takes a lot of pitches and he will take the strikeouts, but won't popup or ground out early in the at bat.

 

Nimalla will become the first player to win MVP and have 10 WAR with a batting average under .200 when he hits .197 with 24 doubles 11 triples 39 homers, 139 walks, 250 strike outs, 2.5 WAR defense, 1 WAR base running in some year in the late 2020s when the league average line is down to .229 .280 .350.

[Laika]

Vlad is the same in some ways. Bad swings at pitches low and away that he can't do anything with other than ground out to the left side (or occasionally get it through for a couple of RBIs).

 

One reason I could end up looking like a fool on the Nimalla thing is that his k-rate may be really high because he takes a lot of pitches and he will take the strikeouts, but won't popup or ground out early in the at bat.

 

Nimalla will become the first player to win MVP and have 10 WAR with a batting average under .200 when he hits .197 with 24 doubles 11 triples 39 homers, 139 walks, 250 strike outs, 2.5 WAR defense, 1 WAR base running in some year in the late 2020s when the league average line is down to .229 .280 .350.

 

Not all players have their K rates increase in a predictable and linear way

 

Some guys go 26% in A ball, 26% in AA, then 30% in MLB and they can stick if they have enough power

 

Some go 20% in A ball, 25% in AA, then 35% in MLB and they can't stick

You are right, it depends on the HOW of the strikeouts

 

 

He's not a star but he did have 3.6 WAR last year - look at Nolan Jones for example. If Nimmala makes it it probably looks something like that climb.

36.6% in rookie ball at 18 with no homers.

25% in A ball at 20 with .186 ISO

26% in A+ at 21 and 30% in AA at 21 with some power

30% in AAA at 23 with power in 2021

2023, 29.7% in MLB with .245 ISO