GDT: 1/4 Blue Jays @ Tigers (6:40pm et)

[max silver]

Nice quick inning from Pop.

 

Pop is making a strong case to stay with the big league club once Green and Rodriguez are ready to come back from their rehab assignments.

[G-Snarls]

Isiah Kiner Falefa is sort of low key on a bit of a heater at the plate. At least by his "lofty" standards.

 

I was suggesting IKF could have potential to surprise a little at the plate. I would never suggest more than league average offense at best but combine that with great third base defense and you have a nice player for the bottom of the lineup. Varsho deserves huge credit for contributing a lot of big clutch hits this season.

 

Gausman was also amazing in tonight's game. Once he can reliably command his splitter he has a shot to actually improve on his previous years as he's less predictable with the addition of the 2 seamer.

 

Have felt all along I'm fine with IKF as the primary 3B if we had better bats at 2B/LF/RF but we just don't, especially with this version of Springer. But IKF himself has definitely not been a problem.

[max silver]

Have felt all along I'm fine with IKF as the primary 3B if we had better bats at 2B/LF/RF but we just don't, especially with this version of Springer. But IKF himself has definitely not been a problem.

 

I have zero issues with the team's second base/left field bats. This primarily entails a combination of Varsho (117 wrC+) and Schneider (125 wRC+). Springer is a definite concern but he should start to get turned around at the plate eventually.

[G-Snarls]

I have zero issues with the team's second base/left field bats. This primarily entails a combination of Varsho (117 wrC+) and Schneider (125 wRC+). Springer is a definite concern but he should start to get turned around at the plate eventually.

 

I should have said " KK and Springer " rather than LF/RF

[max silver]

I should have said " KK and Springer " rather than LF/RF

 

Kiermaier got off to an awful start but has quietly been really damn good with the bat over the 6 weeks or so and have numbers have been trending upwards. It's gone completely under the radar but Kirk's numbers are also much better over the same period of time. Each of them seems to be performing much better in part time roles, whether it's due to effective matchups, feeling fresher due to extra rest or some other reason.

[Stangstag]

Kiermaier got off to an awful start but has quietly been really damn good with the bat over the 6 weeks or so and have numbers have been trending upwards. It's gone completely under the radar but Kirk's numbers are also much better over the same period of time. Each of them seems to be performing much better in part time roles, whether it's due to effective matchups, feeling fresher due to extra rest or some other reason.

 

Springer HAS to be playing through an injury right?? No way he’s this bad now

[max silver]

Springer HAS to be playing through an injury right?? No way he’s this bad now

 

He's a tough one to figure out. His first two years with the club when he was still a beast with the bat he missed a ton of time due to injury. I couldn't help but think of what kind of value he could provide if he were to stay healthy, but then his numbers just took a nosedive and are even worse so far this season. He has good old man skills in pitch recognition and swing decisions but something just seems off with his swing as he's constantly hitting the ball on the ground.

[jaysblue]

Kiermaier got off to an awful start but has quietly been really damn good with the bat over the 6 weeks or so and have numbers have been trending upwards. It's gone completely under the radar but Kirk's numbers are also much better over the same period of time. Each of them seems to be performing much better in part time roles, whether it's due to effective matchups, feeling fresher due to extra rest or some other reason.

 

Jays should have signed a corner OF bat with some pop and move Varsho to CF instead of bringing KK back as the starting CF.

 

I don't have any expectations of Kirk with the bat unfortunately given his conditioning. He'll get on-base and hit his singles, but at least defensively and game calling he provides great value. Looks like those two hot months of 2022 were just a hot two months. Sharing time with Jansen, Kirk should be a 2 WAR catcher even with a noodle bat.

 

Springer is 34+ now, so what did you expect at the backend of his contract? Even when the Jays signed him, he had injury concerns. He was solid here for his first two years. Not sure we even see him post a 2 WAR season, but hope so. He looks toast now.

[jaysblue]

Springer HAS to be playing through an injury right?? No way he’s this bad now

 

He shouldn't be but he's already 34 and players sometimes do fall off a cliff at that age after years of injuries and being banged up.

[BigCecil]

He shouldn't be but he's already 34 and players sometimes do fall off a cliff at that age after years of injuries and being banged up.

 

Quite a few guys are done around 34/35. Mo Vaughn and Prince Fielder, for example, were done by 31/32. I think of them around a long term deal for Vlad.

 

Jose Bautista fell off the cliff at 35/36. Peak production is usually 27-29 for bats. Couple of aging curve articles below:

 

https://monster-baseball.com/2024/02/24/aging-curves-in-pro-baseball/#:~:text=Turning%20from%20the%20beginning%20of,aging%20down%20in%20more%20detail.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

[gruber92]

Quite a few guys are done around 34/35. Mo Vaughn and Prince Fielder, for example, were done by 31/32. I think of them around a long term deal for Vlad.

 

Jose Bautista fell off the cliff at 35/36. Peak production is usually 27-29 for bats. Couple of aging curve articles below:

 

https://monster-baseball.com/2024/02/24/aging-curves-in-pro-baseball/#:~:text=Turning%20from%20the%20beginning%20of,aging%20down%20in%20more%20detail.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

 

To be fair, Prince had the career ending upper spinal issue that he could have been playing through his last few years.

[wilko]

To be fair, Prince had the career ending upper spinal issue that he could have been playing through his last few years.

 

AKA Hot Dog Neck.

[max silver]

Jays should have signed a corner OF bat with some pop and move Varsho to CF instead of bringing KK back as the starting CF.

 

I don't have any expectations of Kirk with the bat unfortunately given his conditioning. He'll get on-base and hit his singles, but at least defensively and game calling he provides great value. Looks like those two hot months of 2022 were just a hot two months. Sharing time with Jansen, Kirk should be a 2 WAR catcher even with a noodle bat.

 

Springer is 34+ now, so what did you expect at the backend of his contract? Even when the Jays signed him, he had injury concerns. He was solid here for his first two years. Not sure we even see him post a 2 WAR season, but hope so. He looks toast now.

 

Yeah spending something like a quarter of the offseason budget on Kiermaier was a bit of a head scratcher given the fact that Varsho is at least as good defensively in center field, and having two elite left handed hitting center field defenders who need to be sheltered a bit against left handed pitching was redundant. I would have loved to see Teoscar signed last offseason in addition to primarily man left field and to cover right field in case of Springer injury but unfortunately that's not the direction the front office took.

 

I still hope Kirk can prove he's a little better with the bat over a full season than he's shown recently as he's been a little streaky, but if he ends up being more of a great backup then that's not the worst thing in the world. It certainly increases the importance of a Jansen extension if the team intends to make an attempt to compete in upcoming seasons as Kirk hasn't shown the ability to provide any offense whatsoever when being the primary starter.

 

I fully expected Springer to decline towards the tail end of his contract but certainly didn't expect the decline to be so sudden. Even last season saw a small 10 point decrease in xwOBA compared to actual wOBA drop of 32 points so a small resurgence seemed like a good possibility. At a glance it doesn't appear as though his athleticism should have completely fallen off a cliff given how well he's still running and defending, but the longer the prolonged slump goes on the greater likelihood the team will need to find someone else to split time with him in right field.

[Barrelsandbombs]

I wonder if a strict alternating platoon at C could solve a few things. Maybe it keeps Kirk's bat fresh because his rest vs no rest splits clearly favour rest. And maybe it can both get Jano's bat in the lineup everyday, and keep him healthier, because his workload behind the plate would go way down by DHing every other day.

[wilko]

I wonder if a strict alternating platoon at C could solve a few things. Maybe it keeps Kirk's bat fresh because his rest vs no rest splits clearly favour rest. And maybe it can both get Jano's bat in the lineup everyday, and keep him healthier, because his workload behind the plate would go way down by DHing every other day.

 

[John_Havok]

I wonder if a strict alternating platoon at C could solve a few things. Maybe it keeps Kirk's bat fresh because his rest vs no rest splits clearly favour rest. And maybe it can both get Jano's bat in the lineup everyday, and keep him healthier, because his workload behind the plate would go way down by DHing every other day.

 

Seems odd to me to play a guy more when he's brutal with the bat and has been for quite a while now. Even when he was playing regularly when Jansen was down..the bat stunk.

 

Kirk is probably better than his line indicates right now, but I don't think hes as good as he showed in 2022 either.

[AMS528]

Seems odd to me to play a guy more when he's brutal with the bat and has been for quite a while now. Even when he was playing regularly when Jansen was down..the bat stunk.

 

Kirk is probably better than his line indicates right now, but I don't think hes as good as he showed in 2022 either.

 

He doesn't even need to be with how elite his defense is now. Being a slightly below average bat makes him worth like 3-4 WAR. Pity his bat has never gotten back to that level cause he would be the best catcher in the game. If he was performing roughly to his expected numbers this year that would be great.

[John_Havok]

He doesn't even need to be with how elite his defense is now. Being a slightly below average bat makes him worth like 3-4 WAR. Pity his bat has never gotten back to that level cause he would be the best catcher in the game. If he was performing roughly to his expected numbers this year that would be great.

 

On a team that's struggling for offense, you play Jansen behind the plate as often as you can and take the defense first catcher as the backup, where he should be.

 

Jansen is also good defensively. Not as good as Kirk, but when he's a plus D, plus bat, he plays over plus plus D, minus minus bat.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Seems odd to me to play a guy more when he's brutal with the bat and has been for quite a while now. Even when he was playing regularly when Jansen was down..the bat stunk.

 

Kirk is probably better than his line indicates right now, but I don't think hes as good as he showed in 2022 either.

 

This is a fair point. I think his splits on rest are above 100 wRC+, but I'm not sure about that so I could be remembering wrong.

[max silver]

On a team that's struggling for offense, you play Jansen behind the plate as often as you can and take the defense first catcher as the backup, where he should be.

 

Jansen is also good defensively. Not as good as Kirk, but when he's a plus D, plus bat, he plays over plus plus D, minus minus bat.

 

I mentioned earlier in one of the threads that it's gone under the radar that Kirk has actually been a pretty solid offensive contributor for awhile now. He got off to an awful start at the plate but he's been steadily trending upwards with the bat. You can go back to as far as the second week of the season to illustrate this, as he's produced exactly league average offence 100 wRC+/0.8 FWAR in 21 games/77 PA since Apr 5. Fast forward to April 14 and he's provided a 137 wRC+ over the following 5-6 weeks with 0.7 FWAR in 14 games/50 PA. Jansen has deservedly received the bulk of the catching duties given his elite offensive contributions but Kirk has also been a very steady contributor as well after a really bad initial week to start the season.

[Barrelsandbombs]

I mentioned earlier in one of the threads that it's gone under the radar that Kirk has actually been a pretty solid offensive contributor for awhile now. He got off to an awful start at the plate but he's been steadily trending upwards with the bat. You can go back to as far as the second week of the season to illustrate this, as he's produced exactly league average offence 100 wRC+/0.8 FWAR in 21 games/77 PA since Apr 5. Fast forward to April 14 and he's provided a 137 wRC+ over the following 5-6 weeks with 0.7 FWAR in 14 games/50 PA. Jansen has deservedly received the bulk of the catching duties given his elite offensive contributions but Kirk has also been a very steady contributor as well after a really bad initial week to start the season.

 

Do you happen to know what his rest/no rest splits are? I don't know where to look for them.

[max silver]

Do you happen to know what his rest/no rest splits are? I don't know where to look for them.

 

I'm not aware of how to look up those particular splits. Baseball Reference does have a handy splits breakdown page where you can find a treasure trove of other stats however:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=kirkal01&year=2024&t=b