Your 2024 Jays Projection?

[Gen.Disarray]

I'll say 86 wins.

 

I could see as many as 90 or as few as 83.

[The_DH]

The hitters could be a bit improved except 3b. The pitching was outstanding last year (in terms of health) so I think that could decline a touch. So I will say 4 wins less than last year. 84-85 wins.

[Terminator]

The thing with the hitting is that it appears like we had some big downgrades from Chapman and whatever the hell got into Belt to IKF and Turner, but Chapman and Belt's Clutch scores were so god awful that just normal years from IKF and Turner (with normal Clutch scores) probably closes the gap in terms of winning games in a pretty sizable way.

 

Then you factor in what should be big rebounds from Vlad, Kirk and Varsho and what should be a small rebound from Springer and the offense has some potential, despite the naysayers, to be very very good.

 

The pitching could take a step back, but it's got more depth to deal with it. And let's not forget how horrible Manoah was last year. If our #5 SP this year (whether it's an improved Manoah, Francis or White) puts up even 1.5 WAR that's a 2 WAR improvement which helps mitigate any of the other 4 taking a step back. The defense and bullpen should be good again and we've also got a lot of depth there as well.

 

So that said I'm going to vote for 90-94, though if we got a big injury in the Spring or something I'd obviously revise that number down.

[Krylian]

My projection for the Blue Jays season is, can't we all just have a good time?

 

You must be new here. No. No one can have a good time.

[Pendleton]

You must be new here. No. No one can have a good time.

 

Join date is right there in my profile

[Sorrow]

The thing with the hitting is that it appears like we had some big downgrades from Chapman and whatever the hell got into Belt to IKF and Turner, but Chapman and Belt's Clutch scores were so god awful that just normal years from IKF and Turner (with normal Clutch scores) probably closes the gap in terms of winning games in a pretty sizable way.

 

Then you factor in what should be big rebounds from Vlad, Kirk and Varsho and what should be a small rebound from Springer and the offense has some potential, despite the naysayers, to be very very good.

 

The pitching could take a step back, but it's got more depth to deal with it. And let's not forget how horrible Manoah was last year. If our #5 SP this year (whether it's an improved Manoah, Francis or White) puts up even 1.5 WAR that's a 2 WAR improvement which helps mitigate any of the other 4 taking a step back. The defense and bullpen should be good again and we've also got a lot of depth there as well.

 

So that said I'm going to vote for 90-94, though if we got a big injury in the Spring or something I'd obviously revise that number down.

 

Chapman was a better player than IKF in 2023 but IKF was the better hitter from May 1st on. I could see IKF putting up similar 1.4 win value to what Chapman did from May 1st in. I could see him doing better as well.

 

I still stick with my 89 win guess.

[Masterbather]

I'm right on the fence between 84 and 85 wins.

 

Fourth place in the division and no playoffs is probably the safest bet. Still could be a playoff team if things break their way, I'd say 35% odds we make the playoffs. Competition will be tougher now with the Yankees back in the mix and I wouldn't sleep on Cleveland.

 

Really disappointing off season, as MEH as an off season can get basically, especially given some of the peak excitement for a signing that would've probably been an absolute disaster long term, but a lot of fun short term. Still some FA's out there I'd love to get, but of course we won't.

 

Starting pitching should, mostly, still be very good, but again, we've left ourselves no margin for injuries and ineffectiveness. Didn't cost us last year, we're pushing our luck doing it again. It's bound to bite us.

 

Bullpen isn't spectacular but should still be very good.

 

Offense, likely still substandard. Maybe a bounce back here and there. All in all, I don't expect Vlad to be much more than he's been the past couple of years. Bo will be Bo. I can see a bit of a bounce back for Springer and Kirk also but overall, just okay.

 

Defense should take a step back based solely on losing Chappy. 3rd to 1st throw is the most difficult "routine" play in baseball. We will be hurt by some lousy throws.

 

We are the definition of a competitive team. Not bad enough to ignore, not good enough to strike fear in anybody.

[BigCecil]

86 Wins for reasons mentioned. Huge season for Bo/Vlad window. Deadline deals will be really interesting.

 

Listened to Passan this week. FWIW doesn't have us a playoff team. Calls O's and Yanks better. Points out last years rotation was 2016 healthy which is very rare. "Old team" and he doesn't bet on old teams.

Edited March 9, 2024 by BigCecil

[RobinThicc]

89 wins