Morosi: Jays sign Justin Turner to 1-year deal

[Stangstag]

Now projected for a .328 wOBA and 27.8 WAR for our batters. 2023 was .324 and 25.8.

 

What were the the 2023 projections though? I think we're all expecting some rebound from guys like Springer and Vlad, but I would think the 2023 projections were more favorable than the current 2024 projections.

[RustyTrombone]

2024 is gonna hinge on Vlad, Kirk, Manoah not being s*** stains. No moves made that could counteract down seasons from those 3 again.

[Spanky99]

IMO the moves they made this offseason are more "high floor, low ceiling" type moves. No real risk but also no real gain anywhere.

 

The roster is solid, but nothing extraordinary. Definitely will compete for a playoff spot but they won't be a favoured team if they get in.

 

Well, you don't know that on the latter, dude? Certainly has been a safe offseason, and I'm okay with that. Didn't do anything stupid so far.

[Spanky99]

2024 is gonna hinge on Vlad, Kirk, Manoah not being s*** stains

 

It always kind of did, no?

[burlingtonbandit]

On paper(aka projections) I'd be willing to bet we're expected to be better than last year's actuals.

 

If the Jays did nothing here on out you think they are a projected 90 win team? I'd take the under on that. It seems morel like a 87 win team that with some luck can get to 90 wins. They could also add at the deadline.

 

Jays were super lucky with pitching health last season as well, a couple injuries there and it could get a lot uglier. (same can be said for lots of teams, but if we are comparing the Jays last season to this coming one)

[Jimcanuck]

Chapman for 5/125M with 100M deferred

[BTS]

How many holes are left on the 40-man at this point?

 

- Wes Parsons (probably removed when the Rodriguez signing is made official).

- Otto Lopez

 

That's maybe it?

[Stangstag]

Well, you don't know that on the latter, dude? Certainly has been a safe offseason, and I'm okay with that. Didn't do anything stupid so far.

 

I was kinda hoping for risky/stupid. Ohtani-mania was the highlight of the offseason unfortunately. The AA period between 2013-2015 was very exciting, even if it hampered the team long-term.

 

Was hoping for some crazy moves since we only get 2 more shots with Bo/Vlad. Maybe the FO has soured on the "core" altogether though, with disappointing years from Vlad, Manoah, Kirk.

[The Cats Ass]

What were the the 2023 projections though? I think we're all expecting some rebound from guys like Springer and Vlad, but I would think the 2023 projections were more favorable than the current 2024 projections.

 

Doesn't matter what 2023 projections were. We have the actual 2023 outcome.

[Brownie19]

If the Jays did nothing here on out you think they are a projected 90 win team? I'd take the under on that. It seems morel like a 87 win team that with some luck can get to 90 wins. They could also add at the deadline.

 

Jays were super lucky with pitching health last season as well, a couple injuries there and it could get a lot uglier. (same can be said for lots of teams, but if we are comparing the Jays last season to this coming one)

 

And they were super unlucky with their bats. What's your point?

[RustyTrombone]

It always kind of did, no?

 

If we had added Shohei and then presumably had a lot of money to work with to sign Yamamoto or traded for Soto then no. Those were the types of players would would have made the team dramatically better even without bounce backs from players with down years. But now with some baseline improvements to the floor of the team, the ceiling can only be raised by internal improvements from those who had down years.

[Stangstag]

Doesn't matter what 2023 projections were. We have the actual 2023 outcome.

 

ok then. Jays 2024 definitely a better team than the 2023 Jays.

[Spanky99]

At that price point it seems one of two things are true:

 

Belt didn't want to come back

They plan to use Turner at 3B for a few dozen games

 

When I read Morosi's tweet, it kind of is written like that's part of the bonuses he can earn, I think. He'll likely reach 30+ appearances at the hot corner I'd imagine, IKF moves over late in games.

[wamco]

If BNS and Zwelling are right the Jays are done. If I am right (way less likely than Rogers Sportsnet mouthpieces being right) they have roughly 5-6M left under the 2nd threshold.

 

So what’s your next move?

[Brownie19]

Doesn't matter what 2023 projections were. We have the actual 2023 outcome.

 

To be fair - the 2023 outcome doesn't matter either.

[burlingtonbandit]

And they were super unlucky with their bats. What's your point?

 

My point is I don't think this team is better than last years...

[wamco]

There's a lack of elite talent, but the team is really f***ing deep:

 

- Jansen/Clement/Espinal/Biggio on the bench with guys like Barger, Martinez, Lukes, Horwitz optionable at AAA.

- A loaded MLB bullpen with a bunch of interesting arms also on the 40-man: Danner, Francis, Macko, Little, Pop, Zulueta

- One of the best 5-man rotations in the league, with Tiedemann, White, Rodriguez, Espino, Francis all providing depth

 

A couple spots on the 40-man that should be replaced, but this is a deep roster.

 

Horwitz and Otto Lopez on the move?

[Spanky99]

If we had added Shohei and then presumably had a lot of money to work with to sign Yamamoto or traded for Soto then no. Those were the types of players would would have made the team dramatically better even without bounce backs from players with down years. But now with some baseline improvements to the floor of the team, the ceiling can only be raised by internal improvements from those who had down years.

 

Oh, so you're upset that we didn't get one of those guys? I mean, they have to meet their projections or better for the Jays to be a threat, that's just a fact. No one player was going to change that narrative I believe.

Edited January 30, 2024 by Spanky99

[The Cats Ass]

ok then. Jays 2024 definitely a better team than the 2023 Jays.

 

Agreed.

 

2023 Jays probably projected to be a better team than the 2024 Jays projects to be.

 

2024 Jays project to be better then the actual 2023 Jays.

[Spanky99]

ok then. Jays 2024 definitely a better team than the 2023 Jays.

 

lol... mint.

[RustyTrombone]

Oh, so you're upset that we didn't get one of those guys? I mean, they half to meet their projections or better for the Jays to be a threat, that's just a fact. No one player was going to change that narrative I believe.

 

Yea pretty much Im still upset about Shohei lololol :(

[The Cats Ass]

If the Jays did nothing here on out you think they are a projected 90 win team? I'd take the under on that. It seems morel like a 87 win team that with some luck can get to 90 wins. They could also add at the deadline.

 

Jays were super lucky with pitching health last season as well, a couple injuries there and it could get a lot uglier. (same can be said for lots of teams, but if we are comparing the Jays last season to this coming one)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Not sure how often they update this but shows a 84.9 Win season. Only 3 teams are projected for 90+ wins.

[L54]

Plan the parade

[L54]

Hilariously underwhelming. The steamer bros better take note of that 105 wRC+ and 0.7 WAR projection in 130 games lmao

[L54]

As far as JDM vs. Turner goes, JDM had a 31% K rate in 2023, Turner's was 18.6%

 

JDM is a lot closer to the cliff than Turner

 

Now go look at their statcast pages

[Laika]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Not sure how often they update this but shows a 84.9 Win season. Only 3 teams are projected for 90+ wins.

 

Not sure this table is current

 

DC has the WAR totals

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

Add the WAR totals to 47.7 (replacement level team win total). At least, that's the replacement level team win total I remember.

[G-Snarls]

2023

 

bases empty - .232

RISP - .338

 

Our RISP issues are fixed guys. We signed a clutch hitter. Sarcasm aside, he's been a much more productive hitter with RISP throughout his career too - one of the few players who consistently performs better with RISP.

 

Plus post seazon vetrin experiencez

[The Cats Ass]

Now go look at their statcast pages

 

I wonder how much being able to play 3B player into this deal.

[G-Snarls]

So

 

Springer

Bo

Vlad

Turner

Varsho

Jansen/Kirk

Whoever plays 2B

IKF

KK

 

That's kinda just OK. An better bat at 3B would be awfully nice.

[L54]

I wonder how much being able to play 3B player into this deal.

 

Honestly

 

I think he’s just the only one they knew would sign on the dotted line