Blue Jays Reportedly In Agreement With Yariel Rodríguez

[Terminator]

I can't say I particularly agree with the depth starter options being much better than they were a season ago as most of the guys I listed this season were also primary options last season as well. The biggest issue with last year's group of depth starters was that they all basically suffered from injuries over the winter or during the spring that removed them as possible options to replace Manoah when it became apparent he needed to be sent to the minors. All of Hutchison, Francis, White and Tiedemann suffered from injury which removed them as possible options until mid season at the earliest. Zach Thompson was awful early on in the seaon, and Zulueta forgot how to throw strikes and was moved to the bullpen full time. By the time the injured guys worked their way back fully Ryu was nearly ready for his return and the other options were no longer required to the same degree.

 

Hmm...it's kind of a difficult exercise bc we are talking about on paper heading into the year. So using that I kind of see it as the following.

 

Better Depth in 2024

-This year we've got one questionable guy penciled into the rotation (Manoah) and last year we had two (Berrios and Kooch).

-Added Yariel Rodriguez. Atkins just bet 32 mil bucks that this guy will be good SP depth and given his record with FA pitchers I'm inclined to believe him.

-Francis had a good year and is easily counted on as solid depth this year over last year. His 2022 was almost a complete bust outside of a good winter ball performance which is tough to count on.

-Tiedemann was too far away last year. He didn't have a great year by any means, but he did progress closer to the bigs. He's better depth this year than last.

-Chad Dallas had a good year. He's probably better depth this year than what Francis was entering '23.

-Offseason isn't done yet so there could be further improvements.

 

Same:

-Is White seen as better depth entering 2023 or entering 2024? I'd say he's about the same.

-Hutchison wasn't seen as anything. We'll sign some turds like him in February.

-Are Macko and Van Eyk better AA depth guys than what we had last year? I don't really recall so I'll leave them in this category but it seems like they could be better.

 

2023 was better:

-Thompson was seen as a possible decent #7-8 SP or so but never showed he could do that. I'll give you that one.

-Zulueta was seen as a possible midseason guy and now is a reliever. I'll give you that one too.

-I was banging on the Ryu midseason drum but few agreed with me. We can count him but he wasn't expected to do much.

 

Seems like the depth heading into this year is far better, right? Now of course, we are going to see some negative regression with the staff IMO. BUT, I do think our depth is a better to help deal with that.

[Terminator]

Guys like Adam Ottavino have been effective relievers with... below average fastball by stuff+ but really good benders. It's a relatively common archetype. From watching this Cuban pitch I am pretty confident he can be an effective RP unless he is a complete idiot like Esmil Rogers or something. I don't think Erik Swanson has a great stuff+ fastball. Anthony Bass doesn't, I think he threw a sinker more in his good years.

 

Just need to get his 4S up to a 90+ stuff+ grade or find an average-ish sinker.

 

Yeah that makes sense. Francisco Liriano was a good starting pitcher for about a decade by adopting a sinker as his main heater to go with his elite slider. He also had a change up to go along with a 4 seamer.

 

Seems like Yariel's fastball may have some ride/cut potential so maybe he can throw it high to get some outs occasionally to go along with a sinker/slider.

[MikeM3]

Yeah I've been reading this as well and also see the comparisons to Steele.

 

If he can't get his fastball fixed, could he still be an elite reliever? Either a late inning guy or multi-inning guy? By just throwing his flat fastball harder (97+ mpg) to go with what looks like a very good slider?

 

I think the good thing is that in the WBC (where his stat cast data is coming from) he probably wasn't working with MLB caliber pitching labs. So hopefully we can make some tweaks and see some improvement with the fastball.

 

Alot of fastball traits are innate. His 4 seam is s*** because of his biomechanics. But sometimes those guys are born to throw sinkers not 4 seam. The clips I've seen of his sinker look pretty good.

[Terminator]

Alot of fastball traits are innate. His 4 seam is s*** because of his biomechanics. But sometimes those guys are born to throw sinkers not 4 seam. The clips I've seen of his sinker look pretty good.

 

Yeah that makes sense. You've basically got to throw all of your pitches from the same delivery/slot/release point too so sometimes there is only so much you can do to change the shape of your pitches before you start tipping them.

[max silver]

Guys like Adam Ottavino have been effective relievers with... below average fastball by stuff+ but really good benders. It's a relatively common archetype. From watching this Cuban pitch I am pretty confident he can be an effective RP unless he is a complete idiot like Esmil Rogers or something. I don't think Erik Swanson has a great stuff+ fastball. Anthony Bass doesn't, I think he threw a sinker more in his good years.

 

Just need to get his 4S up to a 90+ stuff+ grade or find an average-ish sinker.

 

The only tidbit of information I could find regarding overall stuff+ for Rodriguez had him sitting at exactly 100 on the 4 seamer in the WBC, with the slider coming in at 128.

[Terminator]

The only tidbit of information I could find regarding overall stuff+ for Rodriguez had him sitting at exactly 100 on the 4 seamer in the WBC, with the slider coming in at 128.

 

I thought the fastball was rated really really bad. I haven't seen an exact number on it but Eno was alluding to it like it was graded anywhere from 65-75.

[Laika]

I thought the fastball was rated really really bad. I haven't seen an exact number on it but Eno was alluding to it like it was graded anywhere from 65-75.

 

Yes eno tweeted that it was horrible

 

someone tried to comp him to Justin Steele and eno said something like "difference between 90 stuff+ and sub 75"

[Spanky99]

Some of this is just so pessimistic I kind of worry about your mental health. Are you depressed?

 

The Jays project for 90 wins, fifth by Steamer in baseball, 2nd in the division.

 

For them to win 80 games multiple members of the team might have to literally die

 

Their projected offense is actually good, believe it or not. Not elite but comfortably above average.

 

You essentially have the worst possible opinion of the organization in every conceivable way. Nothing is as bad as you think. Cheer up!!!

 

lol... too funny.

[max silver]

Yes eno tweeted that it was horrible

 

someone tried to comp him to Justin Steele and eno said something like "difference between 90 stuff+ and sub 75"

 

Wow just saw the same tweet saying Rodriguez had a 75 stuff+ fastball. That's really surprising as it places it firmly in the Ryu category despite sitting mid 90's with 2500 RPM of spin.

 

I came across this as well which implied a 100 stuff+ but of course we can defer to the guy who actually created the metric.

 

[Jimcanuck]

Jays of course have better info on Yariel, I trust this FO did its due diligence. Good signing!

[Laika]

Wow just saw the same tweet saying Rodriguez had a 75 stuff+ fastball. That's really surprising as it places it firmly in the Ryu category despite sitting mid 90's with 2500 RPM of spin.

 

I came across this as well which implied a 100 stuff+ but of course we can defer to the guy who actually created the metric.

 

 

It's possible that Eno has bad data?

 

It certainly doesn't look that bad.

 

Yeah I'm actually going to assume the data was flawed. Misreads or something.

 

TOR isn't giving 4/32 to someone with a fastball that isn't at least close to average

Edited January 19, 2024 by Laika

[BTS]

It's possible that Eno has bad data?

 

It certainly doesn't look that bad.

 

Yeah I'm actually going to assume the data was flawed. Misreads or something.

 

TOR isn't giving 4/32 to someone with a fastball that isn't at least close to average

 

This is a good point. Toronto’s evaluation of Rodriguez’s stuff should be a lot more reliable than Eno Sarris’

[Laika]

Some basic research. It seems very hard to sit 96+ and have a stuff+ below 90 on a 4 seamer (there is basically nobody) but once you get closer to 95 with the sitting velo it is possible

 

Examples:

 

Brent Honeywell, 95 mph, 71 stuff+

Charlie Morton, 95 mph, 74 stuff+

Chris Martin, 95.9 mph, 90 stuff+

Johan Oviedo, 95.8 mph, 83 stuff+

Logan Gilbert, 95.8 mph, 88 stuff+

Sam Hentges, 95.7 mph, 77 stuff+

Jon Gray, 95.7 mph, 82 stuff+

 

Just a big difference between sitting 96.5 and 95.5.

So, some 96 mph fastballs on WBC video is meaningless. A stuff+ rating of 75 is completely possible if he sits 95 or so with really bad shape.

 

In the 96+ average mph bucket, there is basically nobody sub 90 stuff+ and only a few guys below 100.

 

 

 

The twitter reference from the secondary source with a 100 "stuff" rating is not the same measurement, it is some wStuff metric I have never heard of. I kind of trust Eno's stray tweet more tbh.

 

Looking to see this guy working on cutters and power sinkers in spring.

[jaysblue]

If Rodriguez could either be like a Jose Contreras as a SP or Raisel Iglesias as a reliever, I'll take that in a heartbeat.

[MikeM3]

He gets literally no run on the 4 seam and average is like 7 inches

[max silver]

Just Baseball has a breakdown of Rodriguez's arsenal.

 

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/new-blue-jays-pitcher-yariel-rodriguez-an-arsenal-breakdown/

[Laika]

He gets literally no run on the 4 seam and average is like 7 inches

 

Isn't that good? If he differs from average in one plane of movement, there is potential?

[MikeM3]

Isn't that good? If he differs from average in one plane of movement, there is potential?

 

I would think his fastball would be good because it seems like an extreme outlier which stuff+ can never grasp

[Terminator]

Seems like he could throw that 4 seamer above the zone and get some whiffs that way.

[Grant77]

Cool story: I was in Cuba for the last 10 days and I told some local friends how much I love baseball. They took me to Matanzas for the finals of the Cuban National Series. We were talking about Yariel Rodriguez and how cool it would be if they signed him, as he's from nearby Camaguey. Sure enough, we get back to wifi and the Jays had signed him. I gave them all my old Blue Jays shirts before I left and now they are big fans. Even the poor families have a TV and follow MLB. It was a great experience.

[Spanky99]

Cool story: I was in Cuba for the last 10 days and I told some local friends how much I love baseball. They took me to Matanzas for the finals of the Cuban National Series. We were talking about Yariel Rodriguez and how cool it would be if they signed him, as he's from nearby Camaguey. Sure enough, we get back to wifi and the Jays had signed him. I gave them all my old Blue Jays shirts before I left and now they are big fans. Even the poor families have a TV and follow MLB. It was a great experience.

 

Love it.

[jaysblue]

Damn Grant if I knew you were going to Cuba, would have asked you to pick me up some Cohibas!

[Frenchsoup]

Kid really lacks the fastball command, but we got a decent arm

[Marew]

Yea I guess better than nothing

[Frenchsoup]

Erik Swanson has got a lot of value out there, think his contract and control is pretty solid with 2 nice pitches

[Frenchsoup]

I like Trevor Richard's in a swing man maybe spot starter for 3-4 innings

[wamco]

Here we go again

[Grant77]

Damn Grant if I knew you were going to Cuba, would have asked you to pick me up some Cohibas!

 

I got some if you drive up to the frigid north! Haha

[Carlos Danger]

Damn Grant if I knew you were going to Cuba, would have asked you to pick me up some Cohibas!

 

Most of the ones sold even in Cuba are fakes. You need to be very careful when purchasing.

[L54]

I like Trevor Richard's in a swing man maybe spot starter for 3-4 innings

 

This might be his best post. Didn’t Richy have a few good multi inning appearances towards the end of the year?