Around Baseball 2024

[Pendleton]

[Jays24]

Bieber took less money to stay in Cleveland

 

Just like Jose Ramirez did

 

Jeez

 

Looks like the Indians built themselves a nice culture after Shatkins left.

 

I'm joking before the Shatkins lovers blow a gasket lol.

[Jays24]

 

Going the Hicks route i see.

[Brownie19]

Wow. Crazy they are transitioning Holmes to the rotation. Will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

 

I also wonder if the low $$ for Bieber suggests the medicals aren't as rosey as they thought... certainly would have liked that for the Jays.

[L54]

10 mil and if he pitches well he opts out and that's all you owe him. If he pitches poorly you have him next year at 16 or you buy him out for 4 mil. That's a great contract for Bieber. He could v14ery well just want to go back to Cleveland, but I would have offered him 14 or 15 with a 4 mil buyout. He's a gamble worth taking. Cleveland got the home town discount.

 

Ya you are probably right. I thought the same that he didn’t want to leave but didn’t consider him taking a discount

[jaysblue]

Interesting signing with Clay Holmes. Maybe the Mets squeeze 2-3 WAR out of him as a starter. $12.6M AAV isn't that bad even for a high leverage BP arm. Worst case scenario, they move him to the BP and he becomes a setup guy for Edwin Diaz.

 

Mets rotation:

 

Senga

Peterson

Montas

Holmes

Megill/Blackburn

 

The Mets still gotta add another front of the rotation arm IMO.

[Brownie19]

Interesting signing with Clay Holmes. Maybe the Mets squeeze 2-3 WAR out of him as a starter. $12.6M AAV isn't that bad even for a high leverage BP arm. Worst case scenario, they move him to the BP and he becomes a setup guy for Edwin Diaz.

 

Unless he starts out good and then tires and has to be shut down like Hicks this year.

[jaysblue]

Unless he starts out good and then tires and has to be shut down like Hicks this year.

 

Yeah that's the possibility as well. Holmes only has made 4 career MLB starts. Gotta go back to the 2016 and 2017 seasons when he was in the minors the last time he had full seasons of starting under his belt.

 

Hicks started to tire in June and was awful in July. Started to pitch well out of the pen in August but then got injured and shut down in September.

 

I guess the Mets are hoping for outcomes like Lugo and Lopez.

[Dick_Pole]

As much as I hate to admit it, it's getting to the point where the Jays could consider moving Gausman and Berrios and get a great return. Assuming Berrios takes the opt-out, both come with less dollars committed than Kikuchi, should still be considered pitchers that are a tier above Kikuchi, and Kikuchi's deal is now considered a steal.

[Dick_Pole]

Remember how much teeth-gritting there was over the length of Berrios' contract at the time it was signed? Now he might be the best non-arbitration asset the Jays have. Goes to show that as long as you can keep a pitcher's arm alive, eventually inflation will make his contract look great.

[jaysblue]

Remember how much teeth-gritting there was over the length of Berrios' contract at the time it was signed? Now he might be the best non-arbitration asset the Jays have. Goes to show that as long as you can keep a pitcher's arm alive, eventually inflation will make his contract look great.

 

Best non-arbitration asset the Jays have? Gausman probably is still IMO. Agree that the Berrios contract doesn't look that bad if we see the 2023 Berrios moving forward. Last season's version of Berrios however posted a 4.72 FIP, career low 7.16 K/9 and only 1 WAR which is concerning. Still would be open to moving him if another team absorbed his entire contract. There might be a possibility given the expensive price tag for starting pitching.

 

The hope is he bounces back to being a 2-3 WAR arm like he was in 2023. If we see the 2022 and 2024 version which barely cracks 1 WAR, those latter years are going to be tough to swallow.

[max silver]

Best non-arbitration asset the Jays have? Gausman probably is still IMO. Agree that the Berrios contract doesn't look that bad if we see the 2023 Berrios moving forward. Last season's version of Berrios however posted a 4.72 FIP, career low 7.16 K/9 and only 1 WAR which is concerning. Still would be open to moving him if another team absorbed his entire contract. There might be a possibility given the expensive price tag for starting pitching.

 

The hope is he bounces back to being a 2-3 WAR arm like he was in 2023. If we see the 2022 and 2024 version which barely cracks 1 WAR, those latter years are going to be tough to swallow.

 

I think everyone is losing sight of the fact that Berrios provided the team with a fantastic result on the field reminiscent of a number 2 pitcher in 2024, and the on field result was essentially the same as the prior year.

 

Tell me which one was the bad season of the two that has people talking about how his contract is some sort of albatross hanging around the organization's neck:

 

Season A: 16-11 192 IP 3.60 ERA

Season B: 11-12 189 IP 3.65 ERA

 

If you look at FIP/FWAR in isolation you would think that 2024 (1.0 FWAR) was equally as bad as the poor 2022 season where Berrios posted a 5.23 ERA over only 172 IP (0.9 FWAR).

 

Berrios outperformed his FIP to a large degree in 2024, however the xERA levels for both seasons are within a stone's throw for both seasons (4.51/4.74). The lack of strikeouts was certainly concerning, but I think that Berrios largely rediscovered his form mid season after struggling to effectively utilize his slurve early on. It's obviously far from a guarantee that Berrios can outperform his advanced ERA indicators again, but he's done it the last two seasons as far as xERA is concerned.

[jaysblue]

I think everyone is losing sight of the fact that Berrios provided the team with a fantastic result on the field reminiscent of a number 2 pitcher in 2024, and the on field result was essentially the same as the prior year.

 

Tell me which one was the bad season of the two that has people talking about how his contract is some sort of albatross hanging around the organization's neck:

 

Season A: 16-11 192 IP 3.60 ERA

Season B: 11-12 189 IP 3.65 ERA

 

If you look at FIP/FWAR in isolation you would think that 2024 (1.0 FWAR) was equally as bad as the poor 2022 season where Berrios posted a 5.23 ERA over only 172 IP (0.9 FWAR).

 

Berrios outperformed his FIP to a large degree in 2024, however the xERA levels for both seasons are within a stone's throw for both seasons (4.51/4.74). The lack of strikeouts was certainly concerning, but I think that Berrios largely rediscovered his form mid season after struggling to effectively utilize his slurve early on. It's obviously far from a guarantee that Berrios can outperform his advanced ERA indicators again, but he's done it the last two seasons as far as xERA is concerned.

 

Ironic how when advanced metrics don't fit your narrative, you toss them aside. Though in every other case, advanced metrics when used to evaluate players are considered the Bible around here.

 

Yes Berrios outperformed his FIP to a large degree in 2024, but to expect him to continue to outperform his FIP as he ages and other numbers like K/9 dip, looks to be a recipe for disaster.

 

Look I'm a Berrios fan. I do agree he's a valuable arm since he's durable and can provide innings, and there is value in that despite the non flashy numbers. Kind of the same when RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle were here from 2013 to 2015. You could rely on them to take the ball every fifth day and give you innings. If Berrios can return to his 2023 form, the better it is for the Jays and for the outlook of his contract. If we see Berrios where he barely cracks a 7 K/9, I'm concerned. Better hope he continues to outperform his FIP or else.

[Brownie19]

The advanced metrics matter more in predicting future performance...

[max silver]

Ironic how when advanced metrics don't fit your narrative, you toss them aside. Though in every other case, advanced metrics when used to evaluate players are considered the Bible around here.

 

Yes Berrios outperformed his FIP to a large degree in 2024, but to expect him to continue to outperform his FIP as he ages and other numbers like K/9 dip, looks to be a recipe for disaster.

 

Look I'm a Berrios fan. I do agree he's a valuable arm since he's durable and can provide innings, and there is value in that despite the non flashy numbers. Kind of the same when RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle were here from 2013 to 2015. You could rely on them to take the ball every fifth day and give you innings. If Berrios can return to his 2023 form, the better it is for the Jays and for the outlook of his contract. If we see Berrios where he barely cracks a 7 K/9, I'm concerned. Better hope he continues to outperform his FIP or else.

 

I'm perfectly fine with using both advanced and traditional statistics to evaluate player performance. The main point that I'm trying to make is that Berrios produced excellent results in 2024 and as such was essentially worth the money he was paid as a result. I'm not a fan of cherrypicking FIP and the associated FWAR on their own as it completely ignores what actually happened on the field in favor of a theoretical result that would occur if there a baseball league that existed without any fielders on the field of play. I like to look at more than just FIP/FWAR and have a peak at xERA, Baseball Reference WAR values, RAR etc.

 

For instance by RWAR, Berrios was worth 2.4 wins in 2023 and 2.2 wins in 2024. By RA9 WAR Berrios was worth 3.8 wins in 2023 and 3.7 wins in 2024. Yet despite essentially producing identical results by these two measures Berrios was only worth 1.0 wins in 2024 vs 2.8 wins in 2024. I just tend to think that it's sort of ridiculous to completely ignore what happened on the field of play in terms of actual results.

 

I tend to think the same thing with position player performance. I've raised this example in the past but I think it would be exactly the same thing to only look at xWOBA for a player when evaluating their season, and completely ignoring the on the field results. That's what it's doing with pitchers in essence, and it's just incredibly inconsistent that they utilize completely different methodologies between pitchers and position players as neither of them has any control over what happens to batted balls on the field, and as such each of them are prone to wild swings in batted ball results as a result. This would be like if Fangraphs used xWOBA instead of wRC+ for offensive contributions. Vlad produced a .378 xWOBA in 2023, so if you ignore the disappointing 118 wRC+ and used the expected statistic Vlad would likely rate as closer to a 3-3.5 win player that season instead of the 1.3 value he was credited with.

[L54]

Ironic how when advanced metrics don't fit your narrative, you toss them aside. Though in every other case, advanced metrics when used to evaluate players are considered the Bible around here.

 

Yes Berrios outperformed his FIP to a large degree in 2024, but to expect him to continue to outperform his FIP as he ages and other numbers like K/9 dip, looks to be a recipe for disaster.

 

Look I'm a Berrios fan. I do agree he's a valuable arm since he's durable and can provide innings, and there is value in that despite the non flashy numbers. Kind of the same when RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle were here from 2013 to 2015. You could rely on them to take the ball every fifth day and give you innings. If Berrios can return to his 2023 form, the better it is for the Jays and for the outlook of his contract. If we see Berrios where he barely cracks a 7 K/9, I'm concerned. Better hope he continues to outperform his FIP or else.

 

Max is just here to play contrarian to everything you type

 

Nobody is saying it’s an albatross anchored around the org or whatever he said

 

The contract is roughly neutral at this point but if he wants to opt out after 26 that would be great

[max silver]

Max is just here to play contrarian to everything you type

 

Nobody is saying it’s an albatross anchored around the org or whatever he said

The contract is roughly neutral at this point but if he wants to opt out after 26 that would be great

 

You weren't paying attention to the general commentary surrounding Berrios on this board during the season if this is what you believe. I'm not about to spend an hour going back to find receipts to prove this point but this was exactly the type of general tenure of the comments towards Berrios when he was struggling mid season.

 

I wonder what the chances are of Berrios ultimately opting out? I'm not blind to the fact that the reduction in the quality of the peripherals strongly suggests this will ultimately catch up to him, but having said that he did look much better to end the season once he rediscovered his slurve so all is not lost towards him remaining an effective mid rotation arm or better. Given the escalation in salaries that increases the odds of him opting out, but then he would still need to at least have an effective platform season before opting out. If the team is competitive the next few seasons (also far from a given given the holes on the roster) perhaps this makes him a little more likely to want to stay vs opting out as well.

Edited December 7, 2024 by max silver

[glory]

Berrios' player options are at $25m per year. I know the market for SP's is sky high now but I'd still be pretty surprised if he opts out. Obviously what he does in 2025-26 will be a big factor in that decision.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Willy Adames is signing with the Giants.

 

[L54]

You weren't paying attention to the general commentary surrounding Berrios on this board during the season if this is what you believe. I'm not about to spend an hour going back to find receipts to prove this point but this was exactly the type of general tenure of the comments towards Berrios when he was struggling mid season.

 

I wonder what the chances are of Berrios ultimately opting out? I'm not blind to the fact that the reduction in the quality of the peripherals strongly suggests this will ultimately catch up to him, but having said that he did look much better to end the season once he rediscovered his slurve so all is not lost towards him remaining an effective mid rotation arm or better. Given the escalation in salaries that increases the odds of him opting out, but then he would still need to at least have an effective platform season before opting out. If the team is competitive the next few seasons (also far from a given given the holes on the roster) perhaps this makes him a little more likely to want to stay vs opting out as well.

 

No I can’t say I ever got the sentiment that people felt his contract was an anchor but I wasn’t very invested last season

 

Odds he opts out? Idk all he’d have to do is beat 2/50 on the open market as a 32 year old. If he stays healthy and makes 30+ starts the next two seasons I can see opting out unless the team looks like a playoff team which seems iffy

[L54]

Willy Adames is signing with the Giants.

 

 

The Giants finally got somebody to take their money

 

Fantasy value nuked

 

There’s your Bregman contract comparison. No thank you

[Laika]

Willy Adames is signing with the Giants.

 

 

Holy s***

[L54]

Holy s***

 

Welcome back

[BigCecil]

Chappy 5.5 WAR + Adames 4.8 in 2024 with 59 jacks combined.

 

If they can pull 10.3 WAR off again, or close to it, in 2025 thats a nice SS/3B duo for that side of the IF.

[BTS]

Options are starting to come off the board a bit faster here. Adames was probably the best non-Soto target

[Carlos Danger]

Options are starting to come off the board a bit faster here. Adames was probably the best non-Soto target

 

Yup. IMO would have been #1 most impactful player on the Blue Jays after Soto, and the Jays aren’t getting Soto.

[max silver]

Yup. IMO would have been #1 most impactful player on the Blue Jays after Soto, and the Jays aren’t getting Soto.

 

I think it would be a toss up between Bregman and Adames in terms of overall impact.

[Carlos Danger]

I think it would be a toss up between Bregman and Adames in terms of overall impact.

 

I think we needed both TBH. However, big picture, contract value I had Adames #1.

[Funky]

I think it would be a toss up between Bregman and Adames in terms of overall impact.

 

I also think Adamas hitter wise was the next best but I don’t believe for a minute Soto comes here. We can’t even sign Vlad and we just threw away our closer who is apparently healthy.

 

It sounded like NYY really wanted Adamus so does this have them circle back and try harder on Soto or do they grab the next big target like Burnes?

 

Mets are bolstering their team with Pitching while waiting on Soto. We can’t even sign a cheap depth relief guy like Yimi just to start filling in boxes?

 

Dodgers will probably land the next great Japanese Pitcher and sign Teo.

 

Boston scares me. They have money and a long term signed Devers to try and pursuade Soto.

 

We have higher taxes, crap weather, border crossings and no long term outlook. Why would Soto or any other top guy sign here? Money would be it and many teams seems to have that.

 

We will end up with Moncada and an ex Yankee that can’t play D in a position we are flush in.

[Jays24]

Choices are running out fast once Teo re-signs and Soto goes elsewhere. This team needs at least 2 players from the following this off-season. Bregman/O'Neill or Kim/Santander would be the realistic options as I'd prefer to keep Vladdy at 1B longterm.

 

Tier 1 - Santander, Bregman, Walker, Alonso

Tier 2 - Kim, O'Neil