2023 MLB Postseason Thread

[Laika]

The point remains that the playoffs are extremely random!

 

Stars and Aces don't have the differential impact vs. the regular season that connorp wants you to think they have

 

Replacement level scrubs like Nick Castellanos can and will win games and even entire series. That's how random the playoffs are.

 

Aces only have a differential impact because teams can use them in 1/3 or 1/4 games instead of 1/5 of games. They don't have special added impact within any specific game.

 

It's over.

[connorp]

2 homers off Strider is an extreme fluke, yes.

 

Strider was like Nola this year. Pitch generally good and make mistakes that dampened the work. He pitched like an Ace final numbers in these games, what do you want. Braves didn’t hit. Phillies did

[connorp]

The point remains that the playoffs are extremely random!

 

Stars and Aces don't have the differential impact vs. the regular season that connorp wants you to think they have

 

Replacement level scrubs like Nick Castellanos can and will win games and even entire series. That's how random the playoffs are.

 

Aces only have a differential impact because teams can use them in 1/3 or 1/4 games instead of 1/5 of games. They don't have special added impact within any specific game.

 

It's over.

 

That’s not how baseball operates you douvhebag and you know it. I grew up as a Bluejay fan closely following the AL East and when a team lost in the post season, they spent overtime fixing it going into next season. It still works like this. AZ was better than MIL with the Woodruff injury. LAD put out a shameful rotation completely unlike their deep playoff runs. The bats couldn’t save them.

 

Don’t worry, AZ will lose. It will be the Phills and their stars in OCT again. AZ will need more bullets next year

[connorp]

Laila hattttttes NC for a simple reason. He’s the anti-Christ to his Bible of nerd stats. NC is a terrible player because he’s a “butcher” but it’s like, count the plays he doesn’t make in the playoffs and compare that to what he hits

[jaysblue]

2 homers off Strider is an extreme fluke, yes.

 

Sure to an extent. Strider had issues with the long ball in the Postseason (4 HR's in 12.2 innings) and didn't have the strongest finish in September (5.60 ERA). He hasn't looked like the dominant ace we've been to used to seeing over the last month. I've watched a lot of his starts and I even noticed.

 

18 of his 29 HR's for Casty came at Citizens Bank Park this season. Good for a .553 SLG at home as well. It's like a band box pretty much. Even when I went to the Jays home series in 2010 in Philly haha, me and my friend noticed how small the ballpark feels when you're there.

 

Lastly, the Braves only scored 1 run and missed out on that golden opportunity in the 7th. They needed to score more runs plain and simple. Strider pitched well and grinded through 5.2 innings, and the BP kept the Phillies to zeroes the rest of the way. Very tough to win a Postseason game when you only score 1 run.

[jaysblue]

The point remains that the playoffs are extremely random!

 

Stars and Aces don't have the differential impact vs. the regular season that connorp wants you to think they have

 

Replacement level scrubs like Nick Castellanos can and will win games and even entire series. That's how random the playoffs are.

 

Aces only have a differential impact because teams can use them in 1/3 or 1/4 games instead of 1/5 of games. They don't have special added impact within any specific game.

 

It's over.

 

I don't think anyone on here has argued that the MLB Postseason isn't extremely random especially the WC and DS. You're making it seem that way for some reason, so you can take the high road and look like a genius.

 

I still would prefer being the team that wins their division, have a lineup of elite players and my aces pitching in a short series than being a team like the D'Backs or Marlins lets say.

 

I even said before this Braves/Phillies series that Philly was going to be a difficult opponent for Atlanta. They aren't a pushover like you would think with other WC teams, especially given how they have Postseason experience from last season.

[connorp]

It’s almost like a mediocre player having the ability to take a walk, becomes a lot less meaningful in the playoffs when it’s less likely they’ll walk with better pitching, and a less chance they’ll get moved over, vs running into a HR when they have 30 HR pop.

 

Go get a Casty voodoo doll guys!! f***ing guy is the worst

[Jimcanuck]

Guys, a team of USA college players beat the Soviets in 1980

[BigCecil]

David Sampson was funny on Blair and Barker a couple days ago.

 

In the context of Moreno in AZ, he said Execs 100% watch players they traded and hope they do ok but not well - and then they lie about that. He said he did for certain.

 

Shatkins breathing sigh of relief ATL mega team flops in playoffs for sure lol See! RANDOMNESS! Just get in!

[connorp]

What’s funny is randomness doesn’t apply to Baltimore lol. Board take: They have best record in AL but glad they got exposed it playoffs for no SP lol

[Laika]

I don't think anyone on here has argued that the MLB Postseason isn't extremely random especially the WC and DS. You're making it seem that way for some reason, so you can take the high road and look like a genius.

 

I still would prefer being the team that wins their division, have a lineup of elite players and my aces pitching in a short series than being a team like the D'Backs or Marlins lets say.

 

I even said before this Braves/Phillies series that Philly was going to be a difficult opponent for Atlanta. They aren't a pushover like you would think with other WC teams, especially given how they have Postseason experience from last season.

 

Friend, connorp is on here saying the Phillies have the secret sauce

[connorp]

Friend, connorp is on here saying the Phillies have the secret sauce

 

The Astros it seems have had the same f***ing team for 7 years. They’re like the Chiefs of the NFL. Tough to root for them

[Laika]

The Astros it seems have had the same f***ing team for 7 years. They’re like the Chiefs of the NFL. Tough to root for them

 

Yeah, if a bunch of people flip coins against each other someone will inevitably go on a winning streak. It doesn't mean they are necessarily special.

 

Houston might even have been cheating for a chunk of their playoff wins!!!

[connorp]

Yeah, if a bunch of people flip coins against each other someone will inevitably go on a winning streak. It doesn't mean they are necessarily special.

 

Houston might even have been cheating for a chunk of their playoff wins!!!

 

But glad that fluke 100 win BAL team got exposed?

[BTS]

But glad that fluke 100 win BAL team got exposed?

 

I think you just don't really understand probabilistic thinking. Baltimore could have won the WS. Going into the playoffs, it was reasonable to say that that if they were going to be eliminated, it was probably going to be their pitching staff as the primary culprit. Being happy that that it played out that way isn't a logically incoherent position to hold if someone also believes the playoffs are unpredictable to a large degree.

[connorp]

I think you just don't really understand probabilistic thinking. Baltimore could have won the WS. Going into the playoffs, it was reasonable to say that that if they were going to be eliminated, it was probably going to be their pitching staff as the primary culprit. Being happy that that it played out that way isn't a logically incoherent position to hold if someone also believes the playoffs are unpredictable to a large degree.

 

Let’s not gaslight here. You guys are the ones that don’t understand complex thinking.

 

You can’t accept there’s certain dynamics and weighs that change from the regular season to post season. The goal is to increase your chances of getting to the WS, improving your odds. Of course you can’t do anything to get to 100%. Guys like Acuna will have a bad series. No one is suggesting there’s not randomness.

[BTS]

Let’s not gaslight here. You guys are the ones that don’t understand complex thinking.

 

You can’t accept there’s certain dynamics and weighs that change from the regular season to post season. The goal is to increase your chances of getting to the WS, improving your odds. Of course you can’t do anything to get to 100%. Guys like Acuna will have a bad series. No one is suggesting there’s not randomness.

 

Is this a bit? You've been weirdly chest-thumping for like two weeks every time a good player does something good and then trying to convince people that you've figured out the secret to assembling a winning playoff team. You've also, deliberately or otherwise, misinterpreted almost everything others have said to you in response. You've basically become jaysblue. It's very annoying.

[connorp]

Is this a bit? You've been weirdly chest-thumping for like two weeks every time a good player does something good and then trying to convince people that you've figured out the secret to assembling a winning playoff team. You've also, deliberately or otherwise, misinterpreted almost everything others have said to you in response. You've basically become jaysblue. It's very annoying.

 

I feel like I chest thumped the Phillies one day and here we are

 

Heres my basic thought: Aces give you an advance, guys like Casty and Teo become more valuable in the post-season because it’s unlikely their D will effect a game, while providing big pop, lock down RPs become more important, players like Biggio will walk less and become burdensome, stars will balance it out by walking more…

 

Does that mean randomness does not occur? Of course not. But there’s certain things a team can have that makes their team better prepared for the playoffs.

[Marew]

Smoltz said if they played the orioles series 10 times the rangers wouldn’t come out ahead. Orioles luck just happened to run out the same time the rangers and their 4.77 bullpen ERAs luck also turned.

[Laika]

I feel like I chest thumped the Phillies one day and here we are

 

Heres my basic thought: Aces give you an advance, guys like Casty and Teo become more valuable in the post-season because it’s unlikely their D will effect a game, while providing big pop, lock down RPs become more important, players like Biggio will walk less and become burdensome, stars will balance it out by walking more…

Does that mean randomness does not occur? Of course not. But there’s certain things a team can have that makes their team better prepared for the playoffs.

 

Most of this is just stupid drivel that we would expect someone who works in "hospitality" to spit out.

 

The only way to definitely have a team that has better odds in the postseason vs. the regular season is on the SP side, because the rotation is smaller. If a team has two proper Aces but bad SP4 and SP5, they will be a relatively better playoff team. That much is obvious.

 

The rest of what you are saying is super dumb. A lumbering outfielder's bad defense can have just as much impact on a single game as a home run swing. Do you not remember Nelson Cruz in the outfield on David Freese's legendary triple? Any decent outfielder catches that ball.

[Orgfiller]

I feel like I chest thumped the Phillies one day and here we are

 

Heres my basic thought: Aces give you an advance, guys like Casty and Teo become more valuable in the post-season because it’s unlikely their D will effect a game, while providing big pop, lock down RPs become more important, players like Biggio will walk less and become burdensome, stars will balance it out by walking more…

 

Does that mean randomness does not occur? Of course not. But there’s certain things a team can have that makes their team better prepared for the playoffs.

 

[connorp]

Anecdotal evidence. Weak debaters go-to

 

Run some Uzr numbers on fielders right now and I’ll show you a whole bunch of crazy ass things. Bats are generally much more stable, standard randomness aside. HR power a skill that gets a push. This has been discussed here.

[Laika]

Anecdotal evidence. Weak debaters go-to

 

Run some Uzr numbers on fielders right now and I’ll show you a whole bunch of crazy ass things. Bats are generally much more stable, standard randomness aside. HR power a skill that gets a push. This has been discussed here.

 

You are conflating things.

 

The time it takes to measure true talent does not = the chance to have an impact in any one game, or a small string of games.

 

The things that take longer to measure actually can have a BIGGER impact when the relevant event(s) occur.

 

Like, one clutch catch with runners on can be more impactful than a home run.

[connorp]

You are conflating things.

 

The time it takes to measure true talent does not = the chance to have an impact in any one game, or a small string of games.

 

The things that take longer to measure actually can have a BIGGER impact when the relevant event(s) occur.

 

Like, one clutch catch with runners on can be more impactful than a home run.

 

But it’s more unlikely to occur. Defensive value is incremental and takes a lot of games to manifest itself. Not something you can count of showing in a 3 game series

[connorp]

It’s more likely a really good fielder will make an error than it is Player A doesn’t get to a ball Player B would

[Laika]

But it’s more unlikely to occur. Defensive value is incremental and takes a lot of games to manifest itself. Not something you can count of showing in a 3 game series

 

Yeah the only things you can count on showing up are the things of minimal impact that happen all the time. Like singles and walks!

 

A slugger hits a homer once every 5 games or so.

[connorp]

Yeah the only things you can count on showing up are the things of minimal impact that happen all the time. Like singles and walks!

 

A slugger hits a homer once every 5 games or so.

 

Again, no one is suggesting you can expect a HR, simply improve your odds

[Orgfiller]

Michael A. Taylor probably had more of an impact with his defense than any other position player Twin not named Royce Lewis. An average CF, or worse, a bad one, and the Blue Jays could easily come away with game 1. Essentially a 2-run, game-saving catch. A guy like him is more likely to make an impact like this than at the plate, but in the playoffs you'll take those runs in any way you can get them.

 

https://streamable.com/m/taylor-flashes-leather-in-game-1

[Stangstag]

I feel like I chest thumped the Phillies one day and here we are

 

Heres my basic thought: Aces give you an advance, guys like Casty and Teo become more valuable in the post-season because it’s unlikely their D will effect a game, while providing big pop, lock down RPs become more important, players like Biggio will walk less and become burdensome, stars will balance it out by walking more…

 

Does that mean randomness does not occur? Of course not. But there’s certain things a team can have that makes their team better prepared for the playoffs.

 

Just completely talking out of your ass now

[connorp]

Ok. You unimaginative turtles win