General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Spanky99]

This is pretty spot on to how I feel about these current Birds, make me happy again Rogers and pony up some big money...

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3088867

[jaysblue]

If you're going to simply judge a GM's move based on the results, then there's no point in us having any discussion.

 

IMO, signing Springer when we did was huge and a great move for the organization. They had the young core and wanted to add a star with a big time playoff pedigree. Those 2021 and 2022 seasons were real opportunities for greatness. Just because it hasn't worked out, doesn't make it a bad move.

 

I have the same view on the Braves rotation this year. I worked out AMAZING for them - but I think the Braves got really lucky to get those results. I have loved a lot of the moves the Braves have made on the offensive side recently. I thought it was great move to take a chance on Kelenic - even if it didn't work out.

 

The reality is all moves have probabilities of success. I can't get mad at someone for a move that failed if it had an 80% chance of success. I'm also not going to give much praise for something like Profar, which was a 95th+ percentile outcome. That's how I work. I'm sorry if you don't think the same.

 

Can't have a discussion with you period when it comes to Atkins and this front office.

 

Yes you do have to judge a GM's moves on the results at the end of the day. That comes with any job. If a CEO of a Fortune 500 company blows billions of dollars on a bad decision, they made a mistake and are judged on it. They are held responsible.

 

Did Kelenic really cost a lot for the Braves? Sure even myself at the time thought he was worth the risk/gamble and hasn't paid off. But it's not like AA traded a top 5 prospect or is paying him $25M AAV. Big difference.

 

You keep giving Atkins a free pass on everything he does it seems. Like it's alright to admit that the Springer deal has been a mistake and has not worked out, which it hasn't.

 

Like literally, people are concerned about how much the Blue Jays have to spend this offseason on roster upgrades and a reason why there isn't much wiggle room is because of contracts like Springer, Bassitt, Green, and Berrios, which total over $75M. At the end of the day, who is responsible for that?

[Laika]

Did Kelenic really cost a lot for the Braves? Sure even myself at the time thought he was worth the risk/gamble and hasn't paid off. But it's not like AA traded a top 5 prospect or is paying him $25M AAV. Big difference.

 

This is pretty funny. IIRC the Braves took on almost exactly $25M in payroll commitments in order to acquire Kelenic.

 

Horrible deal lol

 

Maybe they win a playoff game if they never take that stinker

[jaysblue]

This is pretty funny. IIRC the Braves took on almost exactly $25M in payroll commitments in order to acquire Kelenic.

 

Horrible deal lol

 

Maybe they win a playoff game if they never take that stinker

 

Braves still have Kelenic under club control until 2029 and it's not like he's costing $25M over 6 years as Springer is. He's only 25-years-old still and has shown flashes of his potential over short periods. Struggled in 2024, but he's still not a complete write off at his age. But yeah according to you a 28-year-old Varsho with a career 96 wRC+ still has room for more offensive potential.

 

Maybe the Blue Jays make the Postseason if they had more funds available rather than wasting $25M on that stinker Springer contract and others. Would be a shame if they don't have any room in the payroll to add everything they need this offseason, because contracts like Springer and Green are hindering them from making those moves!

[Spanky99]

Braves still have Kelenic under club control until 2029 and it's not like he's costing $25M over 6 years as Springer is. He's only 25-years-old still and has shown flashes of his potential over short periods. Struggled in 2024, but he's still not a complete write off at his age. But yeah according to you a 28-year-old Varsho with a career 96 wRC+ still has room for more offensive potential.

 

Maybe the Blue Jays make the Postseason if they had more funds available rather than wasting $25M on that stinker Springer contract and others. Would be a shame if they don't have any room in the payroll to add everything they need this offseason, because contracts like Springer and Green are hindering them from making those moves!

 

You liked the Springer deal, no? Green isn't hindering s***. What are the others?

[AMS528]

HAD being the correct term. They're now the 28th ranked farm system in MLB. We'll see how quickly they can rebuild it.

 

The ability to reload is maybe the most important when I think about cause of the flexibility it gives you financially. You don't have to rely on free agent deals if you can just trade for a controllable player from a bad team and supplement with the odd great homegrown player.

 

The Jays have undoubtedly failed on that count. I know it's lame to compare to the Braves because it's a constant on this board but it's relevant here.

 

The Braves traded away or called up much of their talent, but if you look at their minor leaguers, the number or pitchers in the minors they had with successful years this year is impressive as hell. AA seems to be aware that he does one thing well, and it's draft solid pitching prospects and they have decided that it's all they will do. Their recent drafts are very funny for that reason cause of the compete imbalance but I suspect finding their strength will allow them to build back capital quickly.

[Brownie19]

Maybe the Blue Jays make the Postseason if they had more funds available rather than wasting $25M on that stinker Springer contract and others. Would be a shame if they don't have any room in the payroll to add everything they need this offseason, because contracts like Springer and Green are hindering them from making those moves!

 

I can't wait until we sign Soto and in 2034 you come complain that his salary his hindering the team...

[Brownie19]

The ability to reload is maybe the most important when I think about cause of the flexibility it gives you financially. You don't have to rely on free agent deals if you can just trade for a controllable player from a bad team and supplement with the odd great homegrown player.

 

The Jays have undoubtedly failed on that count. I know it's lame to compare to the Braves because it's a constant on this board but it's relevant here.

 

The Braves traded away or called up much of their talent, but if you look at their minor leaguers, the number or pitchers in the minors they had with successful years this year is impressive as hell. AA seems to be aware that he does one thing well, and it's draft solid pitching prospects and they have decided that it's all they will do. Their recent drafts are very funny for that reason cause of the compete imbalance but I suspect finding their strength will allow them to build back capital quickly.

 

I completely agree with all of that. Atkins has been balls in drafting and development - although he has been somewhat successful in dealing prospects for value.

 

I'm confused why you're pulling this back to Aktins. I was just commenting on the Padres...

[Jays24]

I believe it but at the same time you have Justin Turner and others saying it's a top-notch organization.

 

It's probably just one of those things where the losing creates the discontent, and it isn't the discontent that is creating the losing.

 

Win enough games to make the playoffs and this kind of stuff probably goes away.

 

Well, they won the year before and Chapman didn't seem to be the fondest of this organization.

 

I'm probably too biased against Shatkins at this stage but those douches have shown near 0 people skills since they've been here and they haven't achieved enough success to offset their robotic approach to the game. I doubt they truly have any actual supporters but people are also fickle.

 

If they go onto sign Soto, you'll see me and many others jump ship pretty easily to support your point lol. I just find it unrealistic for them to do all the things required to get on the good side of their peers at this stage.

[Spanky99]

Good times!

 

[jaysblue]

I can't wait until we sign Soto and in 2034 you come complain that his salary his hindering the team...

 

As long as Soto puts up 6 to 8 WAR seasons from now until 2034 and doesn't all of a sudden drop to being a sub 2 WAR and 100wRC+ in his third season like Springer did, don't think you will hear me complaining.

[jaysblue]

Good times!

 

 

Was at that game.

 

Those 2015 and 2016 teams were really fun to watch and definitely both came close to reaching the World Series. AA put together a solid core of bats and made some big moves ahead of the 2015 deadline, and Atkins did a solid job replacing David Price and some other key FA's to keep that window open in 2016.

[jaysblue]

You liked the Springer deal, no? Green isn't hindering s***. What are the others?

 

At the time, looked good for optics showing that the Jays were willing to spend money on big FA's and to win. Same with the Hyun Jin Ryu signing the previous offseason. In terms of results, Springer was only great for his first two seasons here. Only got into 78 games in 2021 however. They did sign him as a 31-year-old so yeah there was obvious risk and given his injury history, likely was unable to hold up or play at an elite level through the entirety of his contract. Right now it looks like he's just a sub 2 WAR and 100 wRC+ guy making $25M. Gotta hope for a dead cat bounce from him. Teams like the Yankees or Dodgers or Red Sox or Mets could end up absorbing those types of contracts when they don't work out. Not so much for the Blue Jays. They have to be smart with their money. So yeah not the best signing by Atkins and it's looking like a mistake. Don't understand why that is so controversial.

 

Let's talk about another Ross Atkins big signing: Kevin Gausman. He's been fantastic and even despite some regression this season, he still put up a 3 WAR season and made his 31 starts. Hopefully Gausman returns to his elite form in 2025 but even if he doesn't, he still likely provides 2.5 to 3 WAR over the next year or two. Overall, the end results have been really positive with Gausman.

 

Green is a decent BP arm, but he's not worth $10.5M. So yes it's hindering the Jays from being able to spend money on other upgrades. If Green was making $4-5M, I wouldn't be too bothered by it. But if he's making $10.5M, you better be getting more than 0.0 WAR over 53 innings of work from him!

 

Berrios at $18.7M AAV through 2028. Some huge red flags with him this season. You gotta hope Berrios returns to this 2023 form moving forward. Also, Bassitt at $21M for next season at age 36. As long as he eats his innings and provides a 2.5 to 3 WAR season again.

 

Overall that's around $75M of payroll spent on all those 4 players alone (Springer, Green, Berrios, Bassitt) and you only got a combined 4.4 fWAR. At the end of the day, this is an aging/expensive team with no farm system that needs to address a lot of issues this offseason in hopes of being contenders in 2025. So yes, when they only have around $50M or so in payroll to spend on FA's, why is that? Who is responsible?

[Spanky99]

At the time, looked good for optics showing that the Jays were willing to spend money on big FA's and to win. Same with the Hyun Jin Ryu signing the previous offseason. In terms of results, Springer was only great for his first two seasons here. Only got into 78 games in 2021 however. They did sign him as a 31-year-old so yeah there was obvious risk and given his injury history, likely was unable to hold up or play at an elite level through the entirety of his contract. Right now it looks like he's just a sub 2 WAR and 100 wRC+ guy making $25M. Gotta hope for a dead cat bounce from him. Teams like the Yankees or Dodgers or Red Sox or Mets could end up absorbing those types of contracts when they don't work out. Not so much for the Blue Jays. They have to be smart with their money. So yeah not the best signing by Atkins and it's looking like a mistake. Don't understand why that is so controversial.

 

Let's talk about another Ross Atkins big signing: Kevin Gausman. He's been fantastic and even despite some regression this season, he still put up a 3 WAR season and made his 31 starts. Hopefully Gausman returns to his elite form in 2025 but even if he doesn't, he still likely provides 2.5 to 3 WAR over the next year or two. Overall, the end results have been really positive with Gausman.

 

Green is a decent BP arm, but he's not worth $10.5M. So yes it's hindering the Jays from being able to spend money on other upgrades. If Green was making $4-5M, I wouldn't be too bothered by it. But if he's making $10.5M, you better be getting more than 0.0 WAR over 53 innings of work from him!

 

Berrios at $18.7M AAV through 2028. Some huge red flags with him this season. You gotta hope Berrios returns to this 2023 form moving forward. Also, Bassitt at $21M for next season at age 36. As long as he eats his innings and provides a 2.5 to 3 WAR season again.

 

Overall that's around $75M of payroll spent on all those 4 players alone (Springer, Green, Berrios, Bassitt) and you only got a combined 4.4 fWAR. At the end of the day, this is an aging/expensive team with no farm system that needs to address a lot of issues this offseason in hopes of being contenders in 2025. So yes, when they only have around $50M or so in payroll to spend on FA's, why is that? Who is responsible?

 

TLDR; Blah blah blah, Capt. Hindsight STFU!

 

Berrios 3.7 RA9... 23rd in MLB, yup big red flags.

 

Green 0.9 RA9... 49th in MLB, yup, hindering the roster.

 

Who is responsible? Who the f*** you think, man? A teams success always lies on the FO. This isn't a gotcha moment, meat.

Edited October 5, 2024 by Spanky99

[max silver]

TLDR; Blah blah blah, Capt. Hindsight STFU!

 

Berrios 3.7 RA9... 23rd in MLB, yup big red flags.

 

Green 0.9 RA9... 49th in MLB, yup, hindering the roster.

 

Who is responsible? Who the f*** you think, man? A teams success always lies on the FO. This isn't a gotcha moment, meat.

 

Yeah it's become all too common to completely ignore the actual result on the field when evaluating pitcher performance. Like if Jose Berrios provides 192 innings of mid 3 ERA in a season that's a fantastic result and did not hold back the team in any material way. This would be like if position player WAR was calculated solely based on xwOBA and entirely ignored the results on the field of play. For instance if a Statcast based xWAR existed then the 2023 version of Vlad probably provided something like 3.5-4 wins in this and therefore he had a good season, despite the actual results being awful compared to the inherent talent level.

[hanton]

Vlady bats lead-off in 2025

[G-Snarls]

Is Blue Jays Insider ever right with their speculations/rumours or should I just ignore that site?

[Spanky99]

Is Blue Jays Insider ever right with their speculations/rumours or should I just ignore that site?

 

Hah, them and Jays Journal are the worst click bait sites out there.

[Brownie19]

At the time, looked good for optics showing that the Jays were willing to spend money on big FA's and to win. Same with the Hyun Jin Ryu signing the previous offseason. In terms of results, Springer was only great for his first two seasons here. Only got into 78 games in 2021 however. They did sign him as a 31-year-old so yeah there was obvious risk and given his injury history, likely was unable to hold up or play at an elite level through the entirety of his contract. Right now it looks like he's just a sub 2 WAR and 100 wRC+ guy making $25M. Gotta hope for a dead cat bounce from him. Teams like the Yankees or Dodgers or Red Sox or Mets could end up absorbing those types of contracts when they don't work out. Not so much for the Blue Jays. They have to be smart with their money. So yeah not the best signing by Atkins and it's looking like a mistake. Don't understand why that is so controversial.

 

I don't know why I bother, but here goes. After making the playoff in 2020 (earlier than most expected in a gimmick year) we signed the best FA available - a current star, to help us get over the top. He gave us a much better chance to win in 2021 and 2022 when the team had a legit shot. It's really unfortunate he's fallen off recently.

 

The FO can't control or predict injuries or how players will decline in their early to mid 30's. They can't.

 

Again, you're just focused on the results. If you expect GMs to be near perfect with these types of signings for fear they will make mistakes that will cost the team later in the contract, then you simply don't want GMs to sign big time free agents like Springer.

 

I certainly wanted Springer on the team when the team was awesome in 2021, 2022 (and 2023). It can be a good signing, even if it doesn't completely work out and provide excess value.

 

We aren't the Royals - we have enough payroll flexibility to go for it with top tier guys like Springer.

Edited October 6, 2024 by Brownie19

[jaysblue]

I don't know why I bother, but here goes. After making the playoff in 2020 (earlier than most expected in a gimmick year) we signed the best FA available - a current star, to help us get over the top. He gave us a much better chance to win in 2021 and 2022 when the team had a legit shot. It's really unfortunate he's fallen off recently.

 

The FO can't control or predict injuries or how players will decline in their early to mid 30's. They can't.

 

Again, you're just focused on the results. If you expect GMs to be near perfect with these types of signings for fear they will make mistakes that will cost the team later in the contract, then you simply don't want GMs to sign big time free agents like Springer.

 

I certainly wanted Springer on the team when the team was awesome in 2021, 2022 (and 2023). It can be a good signing, even if it doesn't completely work out and provide excess value.

 

We aren't the Royals - we have enough payroll flexibility to go for it with top tier guys like Springer.

 

LOL I ask the same question every time I have to respond to you're awful posts but this one is too juicy not to school you on!

 

I guess by your logic, we can make the case that the Angels signing Pujols and Rendon at the time was alright and they were good deals. Pretty much with any deal, you can make arguments or rationalizations that at the time they were good deals and made sense. At that level of decision making, there is an arguable legit rationale for making those deals before they happen. But at the end of the day it's a business and you're judged on the results of your investments, especially over a decade sample size.

 

Every GM or President does get some mulligans when it comes to injuries and or bad luck, as they should. No GM or President bats .1000 on anything.

 

You're very generous when it comes to Atkins and this front office which is clearly evident, though when it comes to other teams making bad decisions, not so much.

 

Overall, results matter at the end of the day. The people at the top are responsible for the on-field product. By your logic, results don't matter in any profession I suppose, as long as there was rationale for the decision at the time, which is absurd. If that's the way the business world operated, geez we'd be in trouble!

[connorp]

You liked the Springer deal, no? Green isn't hindering s***. What are the others?

 

Who cares if he liked the Springer deal? Does he work in baseball as a career? You think when someone messes up at their job, it’s ok bc some random guy would’ve done that too? lol. It’s the dumbest ass comeback.

 

I was on board the Springsd train all the way for the signing, too. So what? It’s still an objectively bad signing.

[connorp]

Springer hardly was a sure thing either. Some were against it. Especially the terms. There were durability concerns. Lots of bad checks in to that signing. Risky. To me worth the risk, but I’m a alpha male and that’s a natural instinct

[max silver]

LOL I ask the same question every time I have to respond to you're awful posts but this one is too juicy not to school you on!

 

I guess by your logic, we can make the case that the Angels signing Pujols and Rendon at the time was alright and they were good deals. Pretty much with any deal, you can make arguments or rationalizations that at the time they were good deals and made sense. At that level of decision making, there is an arguable legit rationale for making those deals before they happen. But at the end of the day it's a business and you're judged on the results of your investments, especially over a decade sample size.

 

Every GM or President does get some mulligans when it comes to injuries and or bad luck, as they should. No GM or President bats .1000 on anything.

 

You're very generous when it comes to Atkins and this front office which is clearly evident, though when it comes to other teams making bad decisions, not so much.

 

Overall, results matter at the end of the day. The people at the top are responsible for the on-field product. By your logic, results don't matter in any profession I suppose, as long as there was rationale for the decision at the time, which is absurd. If that's the way the business world operated, geez we'd be in trouble!

 

Come on man, The Pujols deal was a recipe for disaster from day 1. Guaranteeing a 32 year a 10 year contract coming off of the worst season of his career was never going to end well. Add in the concerns about whether he misrepresented his age when he was a teenager if you like and that adds even more disaster potential. This isn't exactly a good faith example for this discussion and I'm sure you are fully aware of that. Pujols deal ended up providing 6 FWAR for the Angels at a cost of $40 million per win.

 

Rendon's deal was bad luck on the part of the Angels pure and simple. He was one of baseball's best players at the time of signing, coming off of the best season of his career, and was very durable up to the point of signing. He was quickly ruined by injuries which is not something that could have been foreseen unless you had a crystal ball. The Angels received 3.5 FWAR so far after the first 4 seasons, or an average of about $43 million per win factoring in the shortened covid season and prorated salary.

 

Springer's deal was sort of similar to Rendon's, albeit a year shorter at a significantly lesser AAV. He was still an impact level of player for his first two seasons, but unfortunately missed a large chunk of time due to injury. He declined very quickly starting in year 3, but has still managed to provide far more value to his compared to the Angels examples. Up to this point of the contract he has provided the Blue Jays with 9.7 FWAR over the first 4 years at an average of $10.3 million per win up to this point. This is going to get worse in the last few years, but it will still prove to be a far better deal in terms of cost per win compared to the other examples you have given. In the end the Blue Jays will be far happier with the results of the Springer deal than the Angels will have been with their two marquee free agent signings and it won't be particularly close.

[Spanky99]

Who cares if he liked the Springer deal? Does he work in baseball as a career? You think when someone messes up at their job, it’s ok bc some random guy would’ve done that too? lol. It’s the dumbest ass comeback.

 

I was on board the Springsd train all the way for the signing, too. So what? It’s still an objectively bad signing.

 

No it isn't, not yet. Also, was I talking to you baldilocks, you're a bag of hammers so save it?! You kept saying the Jays wouldn't sign him. bitch.

[connorp]

No it isn't, not yet. Also, was I talking to you baldilocks, you're a bag of hammers so save it?! You kept saying the Jays wouldn't sign him. bitch.

 

They needed to go the extra year and money. Sometimes that will be the case. Toronto as a city and Canada as a country has come a long way for the stigma of a couple decades ago, but still going to be harder sell with some guys that have options. Typically, the smart money is on the Jays not signing the good player a lot of teams want. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen

[Spanky99]

They needed to go the extra year and money. Sometimes that will be the case. Toronto as a city and Canada as a country has come a long way for the stigma of a couple decades ago, but still going to be harder sell with some guys that have options. Typically, the smart money is on the Jays not signing the good player a lot of teams want. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen

 

Thanks tips.

[G-Snarls]

Springer hardly was a sure thing either. Some were against it. Especially the terms. There were durability concerns. Lots of bad checks in to that signing. Risky. To me worth the risk, but I’m a alpha male and that’s a natural instinct

 

I was happy with the Springer signing. Figured we'd get 3-4 good years from him then the end would suck. The fact we didn't win anything with him the first couple of years makes it all feel worse now.

 

Gausman's deal looks better because he seems to be holding up better.

[Stangstag]

The George Springer deal is actually remarkably close to the Russell Martin deal so far in terms of production. And the actual salary/contract is comparable too if you account for inflation and the rise of player salaries.

 

IMO both contracts are fine, both guys aged faster than expected. Only difference is the 2015/16 Jays actually did something with Martin's peak whereas the 2021/22 Jays wasted Springer's good years.

[Stangstag]

I was happy with the Springer signing. Figured we'd get 3-4 good years from him then the end would suck. The fact we didn't win anything with him the first couple of years makes it all feel worse now.

 

Gausman's deal looks better because he seems to be holding up better.

 

Exactly, I think people are just writing of the whole deal because we wasted the good years. If we had any kind of deep run 21/22 people would look on this deal differently.

[saskjayfan]

I don't know why I bother, but here goes. After making the playoff in 2020 (earlier than most expected in a gimmick year) we signed the best FA available - a current star, to help us get over the top. He gave us a much better chance to win in 2021 and 2022 when the team had a legit shot. It's really unfortunate he's fallen off recently.

 

The FO can't control or predict injuries or how players will decline in their early to mid 30's. They can't.

 

Again, you're just focused on the results. If you expect GMs to be near perfect with these types of signings for fear they will make mistakes that will cost the team later in the contract, then you simply don't want GMs to sign big time free agents like Springer.

 

I certainly wanted Springer on the team when the team was awesome in 2021, 2022 (and 2023). It can be a good signing, even if it doesn't completely work out and provide excess value.

 

We aren't the Royals - we have enough payroll flexibility to go for it with top tier guys like Springer.

 

Do we purposely draft poorly, use international signing money poorly and develop poorly because we have the money to spend in free agency and want to give the other clubs a shot..lol

 

The Jays lost the least man games due to injury this year and had a luxury tax payroll. Atkins should have been fired. It's pretty cut and dried.