General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jimcanuck]

It's not Atkins that needs to go. There seem to be weaknesses in the player development personnel. Of course, the same applies, are there better personnel available out there?

[Laika]

Looks like Ross has his propaganda team working overtime

[Barrelsandbombs]

Jays fired their MiLB pitching coordinator

 

[John_Havok]

Jays fired their MiLB pitching coordinator

 

 

Excellent. Now go hire the genius in the Rays org at the same level, give him a fake promotion title and pay him whatever he wants to join Toronto.

[The_DH]

Totally agree, it's worth almost anything to get somebody that successfully develops pitching consistently.

[connorp]

What are Vlads splits since X date? They have to Judge-like. This is one of the few times I wouldn’t mind seeing a Max special

[Spanky99]

What are Vlads splits since X date? They have to Judge-like. This is one of the few times I wouldn’t mind seeing a Max special

 

Go to fangraphs.com, click on his name, splits tool and enter date... duh!

 

Guerrero is just under Judge, MVP s*** nonetheless, I used the day he cut his hair June 19th

 

Walk rate - 8.3%, K rate - 10.9, .347/.431/732, 1.172 OPS, ISO - 358, wOBA - 478, wRC+ 219

 

Judge...Walk rate - 19.6%, K rate - 23.1, .355/.495/741, 1.235 OPS, ISO - 386, wOBA - 503, wRC+ 235

 

Pretty Incredible, thing is Judge plays good D at a premium position on most nights.

Edited September 4, 2024 by Spanky99

[Barrelsandbombs]

From Mark Feinsand, talking with other executives about the Jays path forward in the offseason:

 

The Blue Jays were one of the most fascinating clubs to watch at this year’s Trade Deadline, with a number of directions they could have taken. As we look toward the offseason, the Jays still have a variety of approaches they can take into the winter, so which way will they go?

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano and Chad Green are all slated to become free agents after the 2025 season, and given the Blue Jays’ disappointing 2024 campaign, nobody would have blamed general manager Ross Atkins for trading all five to jumpstart a rebuild.

 

Yet when the Deadline passed, they all remained in Toronto, as did Kevin Gausman, who has two-plus years remaining on his five-year, $110 million contract. Toronto did make a number of moves, trading away impending free agents Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi García, Justin Turner, Trevor Richards and Kevin Kiermaier, as well as Isiah Kiner-Falefa (under control through 2025) and Nate Pearson (under control through 2026).

 

The deals helped restock an ailing farm system, adding eight players into the club’s Top 30 Prospects list, according to MLB Pipeline: No. 3, Jake Bloss; No. 6, Jonatan Clase; No. 8, Charles McAdoo; No. 18, Eddinson Paulino; No. 19, Will Wagner; No. 22, Yohendrick Pinango; No. 23, Cutter Coffey; and No. 29, Josh Rivera.

 

The idea behind holding on to Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt and Gausman was to retool the roster this winter and try to make a postseason push in 2025, presumably the final year this core will be together. Toronto has tried unsuccessfully to extend both Guerrero and Bichette, and while keeping one of them – Guerrero seems to be the more likely to stay – is certainly a possibility, this group that seemed to have so much promise after reaching the playoffs three times from 2020-23 appears to be reaching its expiration date.

 

“I think at this point, they are somewhat committed to seeing what this group can do before they blow it up,” said a National League executive. “If they were willing to move the bigger pieces, they could certainly add some legit depth to their system – but they’d have to be willing to take a step back for a period of time to do so. I feel like they should give it another go, given that they chose not to move those bigger pieces at the Deadline this year; but if that’s the case, they likely need to be ready to pull the plug if things don’t go well by midseason.”

 

That theory is shared by a number of other rival executives, who believe Toronto’s actions in late July left the club with no other choice than to give it a go for one more season.

 

“They still have some real talent,” said an American League executive. “I don’t think it’s crazy to run it back and sell at the 2025 Deadline if it’s not going well. Of course, they also could miss the chance to accelerate a reset if guys like Vlad and Gausman struggle. Both could likely net some interesting prospects this offseason, and that’s not guaranteed at the Deadline.”

 

One of the Blue Jays’ biggest problems is that, aside from Guerrero, the rest of the lineup has underperformed badly in 2024. George Springer has seen his OPS drop in each of his four years with the club, while Alejandro Kirk, Davis Schneider and Bichette all carry an OPS below .700 this season.

 

If the Blue Jays open 2025 with a payroll similar to their 2024 figure, they should have approximately $100 million to spend this winter (before arbitration), which should help them fill some of the holes on the roster.

 

“I think Toronto does aim to contend next year rather than rebuilding,” an NL executive said. “Their rotation should be pretty solid, with some key position players. The focus should be on an overhaul of their bullpen as well as maybe adding a big-name free agent for some additional offense and, more importantly, defense. They’re certainly in an interesting place through where they can choose to start over or add pieces to compete.”

 

Even if the Blue Jays manage to bounce back next season and contend for a postseason spot, they may be doing so in advance of a steep decline beginning in 2026. Springer will be entering the final year of his six-year, $150 million deal at age 36, while Gausman will be 35 years old entering the final year of his contract. Unless some of the club’s top prospects are ready to graduate to the big leagues and become impact players, the end of the road for this core could be a bumpy one.

 

“Toronto is in some trouble when it comes to how successful they can be within the next several seasons,” an NL executive said. “They can choose to return the current group for 2025 and make another run at it by plugging their holes with short-term acquisitions, or they can commit to rolling forward the value on their roster that’s set to expire after 2025 and 2026. That choice puts them in a tough spot. They are probably no better than the fourth-best AL East team on paper, even if they try to run it back with their current group while making short-term additions.”

 

If Atkins opts to move one of his big stars this winter, the consensus is that Bichette is the most likely to go. But coming off a subpar and injury-riddled season – he’s played only 80 games, slashing .222/.275/.320 with four homers – his value likely won’t be as high as it was a year ago, when he was coming off his third straight solid season and his second All-Star appearance.

 

“I sense there is interest on their part to move Bichette,” an AL executive said. “Buying a guy out of his arb years and not extending him further sends a message that either he or they have concern past the six years they have him.”

 

“It seems like they’d be selling low on Bichette and may just be better off seeing if he rebounds,” another AL exec said. “If there’s a [Corbin] Burnes-like return for Vlad – two or more players who can help now – they should consider it. There’s really no easy answer. I think anything along the ‘all in’ to ‘tear it down’ spectrum is defensible.”

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/executives-discuss-blue-jays-2025-decisions

[connorp]

Go to fangraphs.com, click on his name, splits tool and enter date... duh!

 

Guerrero is just under Judge, MVP s*** nonetheless, I used the day he cut his hair June 19th

 

Walk rate - 8.3%, K rate - 10.9, .347/.431/732, 1.172 OPS, ISO - 358, wOBA - 478, wRC+ 219

 

Judge...Walk rate - 19.6%, K rate - 23.1, .355/.495/741, 1.235 OPS, ISO - 386, wOBA - 503, wRC+ 235

 

Pretty Incredible, thing is Judge plays good D at a premium position on most nights.

 

When I have I done my own research? But genuinely, thanks.

 

What a rollecoaster. I think he’s back for good though. At least flirting with 1.000 OPS kind of guy

[max silver]

When I have I done my own research? But genuinely, thanks.

 

What a rollecoaster. I think he’s back for good though. At least flirting with 1.000 OPS kind of guy

 

Vlad hit another level in June but he's legit been mashing since the end of April. From April 28-present he's produced a 2nd best in MLB 192 wRC+/1.045 OPS.

[Olerud363]

Vlad hit another level in June but he's legit been mashing since the end of April. From April 28-present he's produced a 2nd best in MLB 192 wRC+/1.045 OPS.

 

This is why he might now get close to 40 million in arb (I said 35 before but people probably think that is reasonable now, so the 'unreasonable' is 40)

 

I'm not saying he's worth that, just that arb is like casual stats city and going into it with like a batting title or near batting title, and a .330 35 100 classical statline will be worth some dough.

 

Also almost no question in free agency he will ask for what Soto gets... the 'difference' between them, both the real difference and the 'casual' stats difference has narrowed the last couple months. If Vlad is good next year he could be going into free agency 'looking' as good as Soto.

 

Soto - best hitter in baseball by all advanced Metrics and good enough defensive player and baserunner. Lots of fWAR on a consistent basis.

 

Guerrero - 1 year batting average 40 points higher than best hitter in baseball (Soto), 4 time all star, homerun derby champion, more hard hit balls than anyone in the game, 99.99999th percentile high end performance... sure for a few months at a time he was ground ball city but that is behind him... and he can play third don't listen to those d-stats.

 

Not saying at all that I think Vlad is as good as Soto, but it doesn't matter what I think, or you think, or the Jays think, or 27 of the 30 teams think, it matters what his agents can convince a couple of teams to bid.

[Laika]

This is why he might now get close to 40 million in arb (I said 35 before but people probably think that is reasonable now, so the 'unreasonable' is 40)

 

I'm not saying he's worth that, just that arb is like casual stats city and going into it with like a batting title or near batting title, and a .330 35 100 classical statline will be worth some dough.

 

Also almost no question in free agency he will ask for what Soto gets... the 'difference' between them, both the real difference and the 'casual' stats difference has narrowed the last couple months. If Vlad is good next year he could be going into free agency 'looking' as good as Soto.

 

Soto - best hitter in baseball by all advanced Metrics and good enough defensive player and baserunner. Lots of fWAR on a consistent basis.

 

Guerrero - 1 year batting average 40 points higher than best hitter in baseball (Soto), 4 time all star, homerun derby champion, more hard hit balls than anyone in the game, 99.99999th percentile high end performance... sure for a few months at a time he was ground ball city but that is behind him... and he can play third don't listen to those d-stats.

 

Not saying at all that I think Vlad is as good as Soto, but it doesn't matter what I think, or you think, or the Jays think, or 27 of the 30 teams think, it matters what his agents can convince a couple of teams to bid.

 

Remove Soto's fantastic 2024 and they are basically the same.

 

Like, if Vlad can repeat this in 2025 he will look a lot like if Juan Soto had hit free agency after 2023. Same ceiling. And the same sporadic issue - groundballs - but of course Soto's case of groundballitis was not as bad or at least not as detrimental.

 

Of course Soto is slightly better but it's not a huge gap. Soto can be an 8 WAR player and will likely get there this year. Vlad can probably be a 7 WAR player if he has a year where he never slumps.

[Terminator]

This is why he might now get close to 40 million in arb (I said 35 before but people probably think that is reasonable now, so the 'unreasonable' is 40)

 

I'm not saying he's worth that, just that arb is like casual stats city and going into it with like a batting title or near batting title, and a .330 35 100 classical statline will be worth some dough.

 

He got 19.9M this past year. Would his arb rate really double? Seems like he'd come in closer to 30, right?

 

Here are the largest ever arbitration salaries: Juan Soto, 2024 Yankees: $31.5 million. Shohei Ohtani, 2023 Angels: $30 million. Mookie Betts, 2020 Dodgers: $27 million.

[Jays24]

Just got MLB the Show 24 and simulated this season to get to the offseason. Don't worry folks, I signed Soto, Alphonso and s couple of bullpen guys for us. We're so back for next season lol.

[Brownie19]

He got 19.9M this past year. Would his arb rate really double? Seems like he'd come in closer to 30, right?

 

Here are the largest ever arbitration salaries: Juan Soto, 2024 Yankees: $31.5 million. Shohei Ohtani, 2023 Angels: $30 million. Mookie Betts, 2020 Dodgers: $27 million.

 

Yeah - the Jays should be able to bring in a highlight collage of his defense and baserunning to keep that number south of $30M. Soto had 28.3 career WAR heading into arbitration last year, Vlad will only have 17.3 +/-. If Soto got $31.5M, then Vlad should be closer to $25M

[Spanky99]

He got 19.9M this past year. Would his arb rate really double? Seems like he'd come in closer to 30, right?

 

Here are the largest ever arbitration salaries: Juan Soto, 2024 Yankees: $31.5 million. Shohei Ohtani, 2023 Angels: $30 million. Mookie Betts, 2020 Dodgers: $27 million.

 

It'll be around 30 olerud's way off.

[John_Havok]

It'll be around 30 olerud's way off.

 

Yep. Its pretty easy to ballpark what he will get given the precedent of the those 4 guys.

[Brownie19]

Yep. Its pretty easy to ballpark what he will get given the precedent of the those 4 guys.

 

I tend to agree that he'll get close to $30M - but why should he if Soto got $31.5M last year and Betts got $27M in 2020? Soto and Betts had been significantly better than Vlad through the same point of their careers. He's also not Ohtani, who was coming off an 8 and 9.2 WAR seasons. He's simply not in the same class with Soto, Betts or Ohtani. Why isn't there are argument that $25M is plenty fair?

[Olerud363]

He got 19.9M this past year. Would his arb rate really double? Seems like he'd come in closer to 30, right?

 

Here are the largest ever arbitration salaries: Juan Soto, 2024 Yankees: $31.5 million. Shohei Ohtani, 2023 Angels: $30 million. Mookie Betts, 2020 Dodgers: $27 million.

 

You are totally right. It's doubtful his arb salary would double. I am guessing they ask for a bit more than Soto last year. Maybe they just ask for 32 million to get the highest award ever. Or maybe 35 if they think Vlad's .330 35 100 is way more glamorous to arb deciders than Soto's .275 35 100 would have been.

[John_Havok]

I tend to agree that he'll get close to $30M - but why should he if Soto got $31.5M last year and Betts got $27M in 2020? Soto and Betts had been significantly better than Vlad through the same point of their careers. He's also not Ohtani, who was coming off an 8 and 9.2 WAR seasons. He's simply not in the same class with Soto, Betts or Ohtani. Why isn't there are argument that $25M is plenty fair?

 

Its just because of the stats that get used, and remember the arbitrators aren't exactly baseball nerds. I bet if you lined up the traditional stats like hits, HRs, RBIs ... etc etc, they'd all be in the same general area heading into their final arb year.

[Omar]

You are totally right. It's doubtful his arb salary would double. I am guessing they ask for a bit more than Soto last year. Maybe they just ask for 32 million to get the highest award ever. Or maybe 35 if they think Vlad's .330 35 100 is way more glamorous to arb deciders than Soto's .275 35 100 would have been.

 

If the Jays put forth a figure of 29M and Vlads people put a figure of 35M the Jays could lose. They have to be careful here, this is either or unless they agree before January.

[Olerud363]

Its just because of the stats that get used, and remember the arbitrators aren't exactly baseball nerds. I bet if you lined up the traditional stats like hits, HRs, RBIs ... etc etc, they'd all be in the same general area heading into their final arb year.

 

Soto is .282 35 100 per 162, Vlad .288 32 100

 

Not really sure how big the recency bias is. Vlad won his case and got almost 20 million coming off of a .265 26 95 1 WAR season so be interesting to see what they ask for off of this much better season.

[Spanky99]

Soto is .282 35 100 per 162, Vlad .288 32 100

 

Not really sure how big the recency bias is. Vlad won his case and got almost 20 million coming off of a .265 26 95 1 WAR season so be interesting to see what they ask for off of this much better season.

 

This season would get him 30ish those latter numbers would get him 25

[Brownie19]

Its just because of the stats that get used, and remember the arbitrators aren't exactly baseball nerds. I bet if you lined up the traditional stats like hits, HRs, RBIs ... etc etc, they'd all be in the same general area heading into their final arb year.

 

That's just so f***ing stupid that these massive amounts of money are handed out based on archaic ways to measure value, by people who know very little about baseball. Tony Batista would have cleaned up in today's world where empty counting stats reign supreme...

 

How on earth can't MLB fix this? Is it because Owners benefit by this system just as often as they get f***ed over and thus it isn't felt to be an issue? I'd still think the MLBPA would be bitching about it - trying to help those who get f***ed over (all while ignoring guys like Vlad who get overpaid).

[John_Havok]

That's just so f***ing stupid that these massive amounts of money are handed out based on archaic ways to measure value, by people who know very little about baseball. Tony Batista would have cleaned up in today's world where empty counting stats reign supreme...

 

How on earth can't MLB fix this? Is it because Owners benefit by this system just as often as they get f***ed over and thus it isn't felt to be an issue? I'd still think the MLBPA would be bitching about it - trying to help those who get f***ed over (all while ignoring guys like Vlad who get overpaid).

 

But vlad isn't really overpaid .... and was severely underpaid in years 1, 2, 3, less so in 4, and is trending to be severely underpaid in year 5.

 

But that's a separate argument. They're allowed to use publicly available stats, with limits. They can't use any statcast stuff

 

But yes, the reason it's not getting fixed is because the owners benefit faaaaaaaaaar more often than they get boned. This last CBA negitiation proved that

[max silver]

But vlad isn't really overpaid .... and was severely underpaid in years 1, 2, 3, less so in 4, and is trending to be severely underpaid in year 5.

 

But that's a separate argument. They're allowed to use publicly available stats, with limits. They can't use any statcast stuff

 

But yes, the reason it's not getting fixed is because the owners benefit faaaaaaaaaar more often than they get boned. This last CBA negitiation proved that

 

Vlad was a shade above replacement level in years 1 and 2 (with year 2 admittedly shortened by the pandemic) so I don't think I'd agree he was severely underpaid either of those seasons.

[Olerud363]

This season would get him 30ish those latter numbers would get him 25

 

If he had another 1 WAR season in 2024 with OK counting stats he would have got 25 million, but even if he hits 7 WAR this year with a hot finish he will get like low 30s....

 

System is a bit messed.

[Spanky99]

If he had another 1 WAR season in 2024 with OK counting stats he would have got 25 million, but even if he hits 7 WAR this year with a hot finish he will get like low 30s....

 

System is a bit messed.

 

Sure is.

[Olerud363]

That's just so f***ing stupid that these massive amounts of money are handed out based on archaic ways to measure value, by people who know very little about baseball. Tony Batista would have cleaned up in today's world where empty counting stats reign supreme...

 

How on earth can't MLB fix this? Is it because Owners benefit by this system just as often as they get f***ed over and thus it isn't felt to be an issue? I'd still think the MLBPA would be bitching about it - trying to help those who get f***ed over (all while ignoring guys like Vlad who get overpaid).

 

Tony Batista, Jose Cruz, Alex Rios, and even EE were all released or put on Waivers and given away for nothing, because of perceived bad contract or arb value.

 

I think owners benefit because players are often underpaid, and if you get the odd case (good counting stats, or 1 or 2 outlier good years) that is overpaid, owners can just release the guy.

[John_Havok]

Vlad was a shade above replacement level in years 1 and 2 (with year 2 admittedly shortened by the pandemic) so I don't think I'd agree he was severely underpaid either of those seasons.

 

Really? Even using 5 million per win... in either season...doing the math suggests Vlad's value would be 30% of 5 million. I'm admittedly too lazy to look up what the actual win value was for 2019...but league minimum salary was 555,000. 30% of 5 million is 1.5 million.

 

Being paid about a 3rd of what you're worth could certainly qualify as drastically underpaid. And if the value a win was higher than 5 million it just gets worse ...

 

I know that's not really the spirit of your argument, but the fact remains a disproportionate number of wins in MLB is generated by ayers in their first 3 years of service time, while.being drastically underpaid at league minimum. That's the basis for those new bonus pools. It's still extremely tilted, but it's a step in the right direction.