General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[BatFlip]

Atkins hit absolute home runs with Belt and KK last year, so he does deserve the benefit of the doubt.

 

It is possible that the majority of these cheap veteran FAs will be replacement level players anyway. It's not helpful to save money if the player sucks!

 

What if the Jays internal projections say this:

 

KK, 2 WAR

IKF, 1.5 WAR

Turner, 1.7 WAR

 

Chapman, 2.5 WAR

Pham, 1 WAR

Rosario, 1 WAR

Urshela, 1 WAR

Grichuk, 0.5 WAR

Kike, 0.5 WAR

 

I mean, it's safe to assume that Toronto wanted KK, IKF, Turner because they like them more than the alternatives i.e. they project better.

 

Having KK+DV in the OF also provides important resiliency as the team can afford to lose a CF. It's easy to plug someone into LF, it's very hard to just find a CF on your depth chart though. A team without KK in the fold, and some platoon with Pham+ in LF, is one DV injury away from.... IKF in CF? Springer in CF? Cam Eden? Nathan Lukes?

 

 

I doubt they would have offered Chapman a $100M deal with that sort of internal projection (I know it's just a hypothetical), but I think you're right in that the Jays FO probably believe they have more positional flexibility (CF/IF) and will have more payroll flexibility (2025/2026) when it can have more impact on the roster. They probably see WAR as roughly a wash or greater than the alternatives when duration of contract is considered (Chapman).

 

I really disliked the IKF signing at the time and in hindsight definitely seems the Jays overpaid in AV and length, but I'm not so sure some of these bargain bin signings like Urshela are making me lose sleep as IKF seems more projectable at a higher WAR. It's just that extra year that burns, as I'd like the Jays to have as much cash as possible next off-season - the potential FA crop is mouthwatering compared to this years.

[L54]

 

Oh man this is awful

[THANOS]

Manoah looking like his 2023 self. Hitting batters, giving up loud contact, and not missing any bats.

[THANOS]

He makes himself easy to dislike.

 

I was using BR box score for the live game updates, so it may be inaccurate, but it didn't seem like he got a single whiff in all 20 pitches he threw.

[Laika]

Alex Fast

@AlexFast8

·

3m

Blue Jays top prospect Orelvis Martinez smoked a double at 111.2 mph.

 

That's the 2nd hardest hit ball of the spring (of all tracked games)

[THANOS]

He hits another batter after 3 straight Balla to start the 2nd lol.

[Laika]

He hits another batter after 3 straight Balla to start the 2nd lol.

 

LMFAO ALEK MANOAH LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

 

Single

HBP

HBP

GIDP

Double (hart hit, 105 mph)

Lineout

HBP

Lineout

Groundout

Walk

Double (nuked, 110 mph)

 

Great outing, Alice.

[PitaBaby]

Yep, he's done.

[M.E.]

Well that was easy. AAA here he goes. Now go get Snell

[Spanky99]

 

Oh man this is awful

 

Yikes, glad he's okay.

[Laika]

This guy is completely cooked.

92-95 with piss-poor command and bad shape on the fastball.

A slider that doesn't do what it used to and he also cannot command.

 

In 2021 and 2022, he had a 102 stuff+ on the FB and 112 on the slider. That's a solid grade on the FB and an okay grade for a slider.

His location+ numbers on both were near 100.

 

In 2023 the location numbers cratered by almost 2 standard deviations (think, 50 grade command became 30 grade...) and his stuff numbers went to 91 and 94 on the two pitches, well below average.

 

How does this happen

 

How for someone his age

 

How

 

It is like he has the yips or something

 

Why was he not doing weighted balls or hardcore velo training all offseason? He should have came into camp throwing 97 ffs.

[BTS]

Just give Domingo German or Big Clev a couple mil to be the 5th starter. Manoah is cooked.

[Spanky99]

I was using BR box score for the live game updates, so it may be inaccurate, but it didn't seem like he got a single whiff in all 20 pitches he threw.

 

Use savant... https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=748209

[Laika]

Just give Domingo German or Big Clev a couple mil to be the 5th starter. Manoah is cooked.

 

Clevinger from 2023 is basically what Alek Manoah used to be. It's wild that he is unemployed? Wonder what he is asking for.

[ColdPint]

So, Mitch White or Bowden Francis for the 5th starter role?

 

To bridge the gap to Ricky T.

[G-Snarls]

So, Mitch White or Bowden Francis for the 5th starter role?

 

To bridge the gap to Ricky T.

 

If Ricky hadn't had a minor injury already I'd hope he might make the team out of ST but that seems unlikely

[Jays24]

Should have brought back Ryu like I wanted lol

[Orgfiller]

I was using BR box score for the live game updates, so it may be inaccurate, but it didn't seem like he got a single whiff in all 20 pitches he threw.

 

You know BaseballSavant has Spring Training games too right? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=748209

 

Manoah got 3 whiffs, two on the sinker and one on the slider. His sinker averaged 93.1 (14 thrown, 94.4 max), 4-seam 93.7 (10 thrown, 95.5 max), velo and spin on all of them was up relative to last year (negligibly so in most cases).

 

The slider got absolutely rocked, avg exit velo of 102.5 (3 BIP).

[Stangstag]

LMFAO ALEK MANOAH LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

 

Single

HBP

HBP

GIDP

Double (hart hit, 105 mph)

Lineout

HBP

Lineout

Groundout

Walk

Double (nuked, 110 mph)

 

Great outing, Alice.

 

Yikes. Hopefully they can work on things throughout spring and get him back on track, but it’s looking like he won’t be anything more than a back-end starter at this point.

[Stangstag]

Should have brought back Ryu like I wanted lol

 

Its not as simple as “just offer him a contract”

 

He probably wants to go home. He got his bag already.

[L54]

Doesn’t matter, Ross is going to trot him out there for 12 starts with an ERA of 7 and Schneids is going to have his back after every time he gets nuked

[THANOS]

I used GameDay for his entire 2nd inning and I didn't see a single whiff on any pitch lol. My gawd is he cooked. Nothing salvageable.

[Spanky99]

Yikes. Hopefully they can work on things throughout spring and get him back on track, but it’s looking like he won’t be anything more than a back-end starter at this point.

 

I was hoping for this coming into ST.

[Spanky99]

Orelvis is smashing the ball. Roden with a dinger...

 

Clement 3-3 all hard hit.

Edited February 27, 2024 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Orelvis is smashing the ball. Roden with a dinger...

 

109 mph groundout haha

[glory]

Doesn’t matter, Ross is going to trot him out there for 12 starts with an ERA of 7 and Schneids is going to have his back after every time he gets nuked

 

Yup. This same FO/manager was trotting Manoah out last season when he was not right. Wouldn't shock me if they do the same here, especially if Tiedemann isn't built up by then. I don't know when Rodriguez is going to start pitching and/or whether they want to give him a SP workload right away or not. He's another wild card in this. But I'd be shocked if they have Francis start (he probably deserves a chance to) or White. Gotta hope Tiedemann or Rodriguez somehow get that spot.

[Laika]

Not sure why you guys think they will trot Manoah out for a bunch of starts if he sucks

 

The bandaid was ripped off last year

[ColdPint]

A Tiedemann/Rodriguez piggy back in the rotation kind of makes sense given the innings restrictions both will be under this year.

[glory]

Alex Fast

@AlexFast8

·

3m

Blue Jays top prospect Orelvis Martinez smoked a double at 111.2 mph.

 

That's the 2nd hardest hit ball of the spring (of all tracked games)

 

The Jays badly need a high impact prospect to develop on the position player side. Would be nice if Orelvis ends up forcing their hand in ST.

[G-Snarls]

Should have brought back Ryu like I wanted lol

 

He wanted an 11 year deal

 

LMFAO