General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Spanky99]

Well I mean obviously. Things would look a lot different if Ohtani was here as an example

 

lmao

[Spanky99]

I don’t even know what we are all arguing about at this point

 

Best case Ontario is they get Chapman for one year and see what happens

 

IKF would be an excellent super utility player

 

I’m just happy it’s almost time for baseball

 

Amen.

[deanmike]

Ok I haven't exactly been following this discussion that closely but I see what you are saying and you are probably technically right. But it's kind of splitting hairs as:

 

1) The Jays could still authorize the second threshold for a certain player but Chapman or Belly don't fit that criteria. Heck, we know this is true because they approved the 700M Ohtani deal.

We are in agreement on this. I have never denied the rumours that there was an Ohtani and non-Ohtani budget, and the Ohtani budget was much higher.

 

2) Trading Espinal and Richards (the last guy on the bench and bullpen) isn't exactly that hard or that big of a deal to do. And that would allow us to add Chapman or Bellinger and be under the 2nd threshold, right?

I don't think just Espinal and Richards out is enough AAV subtracted. Jays are currently roughly 12.2M under the 2nd threshold (per Spotrac). If they cleared only Espinal+Richards AAVs that would put them at only 17.1M under the 2nd threshold. Assuming Chapman and Bellinger both get roughly 20M AAV, your scenario here would put the Jays roughly 2.9M over the 2nd threshold.

 

Plus, you have to take everything Atkins says with a grain of salt because he is probably actively trying to get bottom dollar prices on remaining free agents. He'll never say something like, "Oh yeah we can go above the 2nd threshold it's no problem."

 

In addition, is not going above the 2nd threshold a hard rule? I believe going above the 2nd threshold only increases the amount of payroll that is actually ABOVE the 2nd threshold right? So if Atkins signals we aren't going above the 2nd threshold does he mean we aren't going "materially" above the second threshold? And being 1 or 2 mil over is no big deal? Or does he literally mean we aren't going above the 2nd threshold by one penny? There's a difference there.

Last year's final lux tax payroll was roughly 5M above the 2nd threshold and the opening day lux tax payroll was just under the 2nd threshold. So basically they used 5M of wiggle room in season (this is if you trust Spotrac). If you trust Fangraphs payroll numbers, the Jays never even spent into the 2nd threshold last season, and by extension have never in franchise history

 

Highest estimate of what the Jays luxury tax bill may have been last season was roughly 5.5M (my own math also matched up with Spotrac's 5.5M number over Fangraphs so I've been using their payroll numbers). Since the Jays are a repeat tax team this season instead of last season when they were a 1st year tax team, every dollar spent over the base tax threshold (237M in 2024) is taxed 30% instead of 20% last year. There is also a 12% surcharge for every dollar spent over the 2nd threshold (257M in 2024).

 

So using your Espinal+Richards out and Chapman or Bellinger in scenario, the Jays tax bill from the base threshold overages alone would be 6M (already higher than last season's tax bill). When factoring in the 2.9M in 2nd threshold overages, they would have a tax bill of roughly 1.2M on those overages alone. Total 2024 tax bill for your hypothetical scenario is roughly 7.2M, significantly higher than last season's final lux tax bill and this would be opening day before any in season wiggle room is used. Plus the thresholds increased by 4M this year so they're already spending more money than last season to begin with if they simply spend to the base threshold limit.

 

Do you really think that hypothetical is realistic, involving a projected tax bill higher than last season's before opening day, when we don't even know for sure if the Jays have EVER spent into the 2nd threshold in their franchise's history? I think a lot of posters here are severely underestimating the stinginess of Ed Rogers, especially considering the failure of last season's team to meet the organization's high internal expectations.

 

With all of that being said, if it's Garcia instead of Richards out or all 3 of them out, that is way closer to realistic.

Edited February 16, 2024 by deanmike

[Spanky99]

Wow!

[burlingtonbandit]

Moving out IKF’s salary is the perfect move if you brought back Chapman. Lol the irony….

[Jimcanuck]

All this speculation on Jays player budget etc is just that, speculation.

 

Bellinger a great fit, no doubt.

[The_DH]

what's more funny is folks who talk about not wanting to spend money. IT'S NOT YOUR MONEY!!!!!!

 

We as fans invest time, pay for tickets and watch television with commercials.

[Stangstag]

what's more funny is folks who talk about not wanting to spend money. IT'S NOT YOUR MONEY!!!!!!

 

We as fans invest time, pay for tickets and watch television with commercials.

 

This is such a simpleton mindset

[Pendleton]

Some interesting quotes today

 

Quote them, I enjoy reading interesting quotes

[burlingtonbandit]

what's more funny is folks who talk about not wanting to spend money. IT'S NOT YOUR MONEY!!!!!!

 

We as fans invest time, pay for tickets and watch television with commercials.

 

Yeah but there is a limited amount of money to spend, so that is why people complain. People want the best Jays team possible and if money is spent inefficiently well that hurts the team..

[Dick_Pole]

So basically what deaner has been saying all along that there wasnÂ’t a break in case of emergency piggy bank

 

Dean deserves an apology from some of you

 

Not sure if anyone was strongly against what he believed. Or was merely providing a rebuttal due to the very annoying and repetitive way he would present his argument. Team might have to shed some payroll under certain circumstances. And then expand on that idea using about 10,000 words over 100 posts. Wow, groundbreaking stuff. He deserves no apologies. I haven't read a full dean post that is more than 2 sentences in a while.

[deanmike]

Not sure if anyone was strongly against what he believed. Or was merely providing a rebuttal due to the very annoying and repetitive way he would present his argument. Team might have to shed some payroll under certain circumstances. And then expand on that idea using about 10,000 words over 100 posts. Wow, groundbreaking stuff. He deserves no apologies. I haven't read a full dean post that is more than 2 sentences in a while.

 

If you are not even against what I was saying and provided a rebuttal just for the sake of it, that's still fine by me lmao at least you unlimited budget truthers finally admit you're wrong. And that's a 2 sentence post for you there bitch boi.

[wamco]

Go Dean Go!

[The_DH]

Yeah but there is a limited amount of money to spend, so that is why people complain. People want the best Jays team possible and if money is spent inefficiently well that hurts the team..

 

The team is more profitable to Rogers. If people put the squeeze on Rogers, they will pony up.

[Stangstag]

The team is more profitable to Rogers. If people put the squeeze on Rogers, they will pony up.

 

No, it would likely have the opposite effect. Less eyes on the team would give Rogers less reason/room to spend

[Brownie19]

I don't want to pay $150 a month for my cell phone just so we can have Bellinger.

 

um - that's not how it works.

[Brownie19]

People were willing to do it for Ohtani, not for Bellinger though. I'm happy with my 120gb for $34.

 

What are you talking about? Nobody is going to pay more for internet because the Jays signed a FA. Enough.

[The_DH]

Rogers will charge as much as they can, it's simple economics mixed with government pressure.

[Dick_Pole]

I would be totally on board with Rogers increasing the price of the women's channel, LGBT channel and anything else that doesn't appeal to straight (white) sports-loving men and drop that extra revenue dollar for dollar into the Jays payroll.

[burlingtonbandit]

I would be totally on board with Rogers increasing the price of the women's channel, LGBT channel and anything else that doesn't appeal to straight (white) sports-loving men and drop that extra revenue dollar for dollar into the Jays payroll.

 

Let’s get an extra tax on pride merch while we are at it!

[Terminator]

 

It's been two days and Alek Manoah is taking the Best Shape of His Life trope to new heights. I don't know how much longer I can hold off on the Kool-Aid.

 

He not only lost all that weight but he's saying all the right things as well. He's actually kind of likable right now.

 

Huge fan of Mrs. Manoah for getting her fat ass husband in gear.

[Jonn]

https://x.com/splitteraces/status/1758554434815013293?s=46&t=DXvWLCuPVJeYNaIQ4OBAMQ

 

 

His body fat percentage is well down. We should all be extremely happy. He hasn’t just lost weight he has replaced it with muscle. Big difference.

[Laika]

[Laika]

Still has a little ponch but that's just genetics

 

 

Now if Kirk shows up looking like less of a meatball, that'll be 3/3 on the fatty watch front

[Jonn]

Still has a little ponch but that's just genetics

 

 

Now if Kirk shows up looking like less of a meatball, that'll be 3/3 on the fatty watch front

 

First time I have seen his chest and arms look muscular and defined. He will only loose that pouch if he gets to certain level of body fat percentage. If he stays consistent he will get there. Its the hardest place to lose weight.

[Stangstag]

 

That's a great look for Vlad. Stoked

[max silver]

First time I have seen his chest and arms look muscular and defined. He will only loose that pouch if he gets to certain level of body fat percentage. If he stays consistent he will get there. Its the hardest place to lose weight.

 

A good chunk of that pouch could very well be loose skin due to the year's of featuring an oversized belly.

[Brownie19]

The World Series will be easy to make.

[Spanky99]

That is good news, apparently Kirky has lost a lot.

[Terminator]

The World Series will be easy to make.

 

Currently adjusting my own personal projections and I'm lowering Manoah's ERA from 6.50 to 3.20 in 200 innings based upon what I've seen so far this spring.

 

I've got Vlad up to 45 homers now after previously writing down 20 for him.

 

I'm waiting to see a good pic of our meatball Catcher but yeah, I'm kind of thinking that the World Series is going to be easy to make too.