GDT: 1/4 Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians (Monday 7:10 ET)

[Daniel Labude]

DeJong no

 

I expect they HOPE Green is good enough to pay one of the multiple possible option scenarios they signed him for. They put a lot of effort into the contract to both protect themselves but also allow him to be held onto if he's great again.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/chad-green-19806/#:~:text=Chad%20Green%20signed%20a%202,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%242%2C250%2C000.

 

Is that saying if they decline the option he gets a player option...so actually a good bet he is around next season either way

[Jonn]

~222M now

 

50M free from

 

Chapman

Ryu

KK

Belt

 

8M free from paying retained salaries

 

Leaves about 164M before raises

 

 

Probably 40-50M (depending on raises) could be spent on

 

Additional bat with 2B, 3B, OF positioning, with the possibility to DH

RPs

 

Options on DeJong and Chad Green are 21.5M, probably not picked up

 

But I think they may want to be under 200M if the prospects can fill roles next season

 

Unless Chad Green is horrendous when he returns. His option is being picked up 100%.

[max silver]

Unless Chad Green is horrendous when he returns. His option is being picked up 100%.

 

Yeah it's almost a given Green is being retained past this season. He's put up great results in his rehab stint so far so hopefully that continues once he's activated. It just remains to be seen how many years of control the team retains over Green given the complexity of the contract.

[John_Havok]

Yeah it's almost a given Green is being retained past this season. He's put up great results in his rehab stint so far so hopefully that continues once he's activated. It just remains to be seen how many years of control the team retains over Green given the complexity of the contract.

 

No doubt, the differing levels in his options are actually kinda nuts. If they retain Hicks and bring back Romano who will definitely be inline for a decent raise, they could be looking at 3 pen arms earning between 7-10 million each. For that reason alone it’s almost a guarantee that Hicks is not retained unless they get him at a big discount.

[THANOS]

No doubt, the differing levels in his options are actually kinda nuts. If they retain Hicks and bring back Romano who will definitely be inline for a decent raise, they could be looking at 3 pen arms earning between 7-10 million each. For that reason alone it’s almost a guarantee that Hicks is not retained unless they get him at a big discount.

 

I mean we have a ton of money coming off the books, we could retain all 3 and still have enough for Jansen & Bo extensions.

 

Then you backfill Whit, Chapman & Belt with Schneider, Barger & Horowitz.

[John_Havok]

I mean we have a ton of money coming off the books, we could retain all 3 and still have enough for Jansen & Bo extensions.

 

Then you backfill Whit, Chapman & Belt with Schneider, Barger & Horowitz.

 

True. But is tying up 21-30 million on 3 pen arms very wise? Especially when those backfills you mentioned are a near certainty to be downgrades on the three departures in the aggregate, especially defensively.

[THANOS]

True. But is tying up 21-30 million on 3 pen arms very wise? Especially when those backfills you mentioned are a near certainty to be downgrades on the three departures in the aggregate, especially defensively.

 

That's true, but you're probably not getting any long term solutions to fill those spots in FA anyway and bringing back Chapman, at what he will command, is not really smart imo. Belt will be a year old as well and could collapse at any moment. Bringing back Whit at his team option cost doesn't seem prudent either.

 

I doubt Hicks commands much term based on performance this season (maybe 3Y?) and you have cost certainty on Green and Romano anyway.

 

The rotation is full as well, with Tiedemann probably up at the back-end of 2024 as well, so in 2025, you still have Gaua, Berrios, Bassitt, Manoah & Tiede.

 

You can throw some payroll at rotation depth, which is fine, but not much to throw it at.

[wamco]

Unfortunately, this is true. Also would be difficult to commit to KK for more than 1 or 2 years and I have to think someone will give him 3+ years.

 

I can’t see KK getting a 3 year deal

[wamco]

Almost seems destined to see

 

3B: Orelvis

SS: Bo

2B: Barger/Schneider

1B: Vlad

C: Jansen/Kirk

LF: Schneider/Barger

CF: Varsho

RF: Springer

DH: FA/Horwitz/Kirk

 

Would ohtani be the FA DH/ SP in this scenario? That would be interesting. Orelvis isn’t ready april 2024 imo so a patch job would be needed there.

[wamco]

We'll see. A corner OFer with bad defense and a high K rate is pretty common these days. I guess Haniger got 3 years, but guys like Joc and Duvall only got 1 year deals this past offseason.

 

Seems like a prime candidate for a 1 year contract in a good hitters park

[Brownie19]

Seems like a prime candidate for a 1 year contract in a good hitters park

 

anyone know where the Rogers Centre ranks now following the renovations to the OF? Still a great hitters park?

[G-Snarls]

anyone know where the Rogers Centre ranks now following the renovations to the OF? Still a great hitters park?

 

Doesn't look like it

 

Seems to have fallen from #5 in 2022 to #22 in 2023 for "park factor"

 

And from #5 to #20 for wOBA

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors

[Brownie19]

Doesn't look like it

 

Seems to have fallen from #5 in 2022 to #22 in 2023 for "park factor"

 

And from #5 to #20 for wOBA

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors

 

That's interesting. I wonder how many games it takes for those stats to stabilize? I think most thought the renovations would make it even better for hitters. Shorter distances to the fences, but perhaps the height evens it all out?

[G-Snarls]

That's interesting. I wonder how many games it takes for those stats to stabilize? I think most thought the renovations would make it even better for hitters. Shorter distances to the fences, but perhaps the height evens it all out?

 

Maybe

 

I was very surprised when I looked it up

[Daniel Labude]

That's interesting. I wonder how many games it takes for those stats to stabilize? I think most thought the renovations would make it even better for hitters. Shorter distances to the fences, but perhaps the height evens it all out?

 

Doubtful. Only a couple balls have been held due to the height. Its pretty much the air dynamics of all the changes and probably a not so friendly batters eye for hitters

[AMS528]

Almost seems destined to see

 

3B: Orelvis

SS: Bo

2B: Barger/Schneider

1B: Vlad

C: Jansen/Kirk

LF: Schneider/Barger

CF: Varsho

RF: Springer

DH: FA/Horwitz/Kirk

 

 

There's what? 60 million coming off the payroll next year? Ryu was basically a surplus bonus this year. Chapman and Whit and KK have been very valuable. Belt has been decent. Grichuk is the other retained chunk they'll lose.

 

Kikuchi is still under contract next year, and given his performance this year, no reason to think he's not going to likely be locked into a spot. The expectation given his last few starts is probably that Manoah will also be locked in, and hopefully more ready for the season and the pitch clock. That's five starters, and you certainly should sign one other half decent one for depth. Ideally Ricky T is also doing great as depth, but given his complete lack of innings he's unlikely to be much of a factor.

 

I assume some guys will get ARB raises (Kirk, Swanson, Romano). Bichette is already locked in there. I'm no expert but given Varsho and Vladdy have had bad seasons I assume their raises may be lower than expected. Jansen you hope signs a reasonable extension.

 

I feel like that still leaves a decent amount of space for a pretty large sized contract. Even after signing a SP for more depth. Obviously not a very good free agent class, but maybe there's a deal to take on a contract for a position player.

[thatoneguy]

Doubtful. Only a couple balls have been held due to the height. Its pretty much the air dynamics of all the changes and probably a not so friendly batters eye for hitters

 

I was going to mention the batters eye considering how much that has changed since previously.

[Terminator]

Batters will get a boost next year when the foul territory is reduced by about 3,000 square feet.

[John_Havok]

There's what? 60 million coming off the payroll next year? Ryu was basically a surplus bonus this year. Chapman and Whit and KK have been very valuable. Belt has been decent. Grichuk is the other retained chunk they'll lose.

 

Kikuchi is still under contract next year, and given his performance this year, no reason to think he's not going to likely be locked into a spot. The expectation given his last few starts is probably that Manoah will also be locked in, and hopefully more ready for the season and the pitch clock. That's five starters, and you certainly should sign one other half decent one for depth. Ideally Ricky T is also doing great as depth, but given his complete lack of innings he's unlikely to be much of a factor.

 

I assume some guys will get ARB raises (Kirk, Swanson, Romano). Bichette is already locked in there. I'm no expert but given Varsho and Vladdy have had bad seasons I assume their raises may be lower than expected. Jansen you hope signs a reasonable extension.

 

I feel like that still leaves a decent amount of space for a pretty large sized contract. Even after signing a SP for more depth. Obviously not a very good free agent class, but maybe there's a deal to take on a contract for a position player.

 

What SP is going to sign here as depth? The 5 main rotation spots are already signed in Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Manoah and Kikuchi. Anyone signing here as SP depth would need to sign a minor league deal and wait for a call, or sign with the understanding they’d be the long man in the pen and be the first option if someone gets hurt. That kind of signing wouldn’t be expensive at all.

[Omar]

Doesn't look like it

 

Seems to have fallen from #5 in 2022 to #22 in 2023 for "park factor"

 

And from #5 to #20 for wOBA

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors

 

Vladdys metrics alone dropped it ten spots:p

[AMS528]

What SP is going to sign here as depth? The 5 main rotation spots are already signed in Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Manoah and Kikuchi. Anyone signing here as SP depth would need to sign a minor league deal and wait for a call, or sign with the understanding they’d be the long man in the pen and be the first option if someone gets hurt. That kind of signing wouldn’t be expensive at all.

 

That's true, in which case that really leaves even more money for both resigning bullpen pieces, fitting in the raises, and having plenty left for adding another large contract. No reason to think we're going to be exclusively relying on Schneider/Barger/Horwitz filling in the pieces we'll be potentially losing.

 

And there's definitely enough money to try and retain Kiermaier again and still add a large piece. Out of the three of him, Belt and Chapman, he would likely be the most responsible signing. Belt has given as a solid year, but is pretty old to rely on again. And Chapman is going to get a huge long term deal given there's basically no one better out there.