2023 Trade Deadline

[John_Havok]

I would say we got Addison Barger knocking on the door, but he's not been good so far this year.

 

Orelvis is knocking on the door for 3B also, depending on how his impending move to AAA goes.

[John_Havok]

Stoeten wrote a good article about next year a couple of months ago. https://stoeten.substack.com/p/what-happens-long-term-if-the-jays

 

He has us on the hook for $198.25M in payroll commitments after he mades guesses on the arbitration guys. That would lead to the Jays having $38.75 million before the tax threshhold.

 

He had us keeping Cimber, Biggio and Espinal at the time for a combined 10.5 Million but if we want to clear them off the books we could. Horwitz, Lopez, Schneider, etc. could provide similar production for the league min. So that would give us about $49 million to spend. That sounds like a lot but we will need a 3B, 2B, OF, DH and whatever we decide to do with the pitching.

 

I think it's pretty safe to say Cimber will be toasted. I wouldnt lose sleep if both Biggio and Espinal were also cut, but .. neither would be expensive to retain either if they wanted to keep at least one of them for the bench.

 

 

Without going external, i guess Davis Schneider has definitely earned the chance to compete for a role, be plays 2nd, 3rd and the OF, so he would fit in if he can hack it. Orelvis and Barger will surely get long looks in ST for roles also, so that's another couple guys for IF spots. SP is largely set already, but for sure there will need to be depth sought, but mostly minor league signings i would guess there.

[jaysblue]

This is more palatable for sure. If you could get the Cards to pay another portion of that down, I'd like it even more.

 

However, this season The jays aren't really looking to switch up at 3b. rest of season projections have Chappy and Arenado within error margins of each other, so swapping out Chappy for Arenado doesnt really move the needle for 2023 - unless you get something of need in return for Chapman that is usable right now. Plus we'd be giving up other assets to get Arenado.

 

2024 and beyond... yeah it could make sense. This maybe lines up better as an upcoming offseasn type of deal if he's not dealt at this deadline.

 

Yeah Chapman and Arenado for the rest of the season is a wash to be honest like you said.

 

It does make more sense to trade for Arenado in the offseason, but would the Jays have enough to make a trade?

 

My suggestion to trade Chapman now in order to swing the Arenado trade at the deadline, because at least you'll get some young assets back for Chapman that you could move for Arenado.

 

And if you get the Cards to eat some of Arenado's contract, even better!

[jaysblue]

Yeah but the arb guys are going to eat into the Ryu and Chapman money and there are other holes to fill other than just 3B. If we traded for Arenado we'd be dumpster diving everywhere else and would lessen our chances of resigning Vlad or Bo. But it's not completely inconceivable. Arenado's deal seems to be the kind of contract Atkins likes gambling on.

 

But aside from the financial considerations, Arenado's declining play is also worrisome. Walk rate is down, K rate is way up and his defensive metrics are dropping like a lead balloon. The Jays could probably get him for nothing if they wanted. He's a negative asset IMO.

 

If the Jays could get him for nothing, all aboard.

 

Though I bet the Cards still value him highly and probably want a decent package to move him, or else they'll go into 2024 with both Goldy/Arenado hoping they're better.

 

Jays rotation in 2024 is set with Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Manoah (cross fingers) and they could sign anyone to be the No. 5 starter. Bullpen should be fine as well, maybe some new faces. They'll have to find someone for 2B, whether they platoon Biggio/Espinal or go after someone else. As well, they'll need a LF though that shouldn't be too difficult. I think Arenado won't break the bank in terms of what the Jays can and can't do.

[jaysblue]

RF Springer

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero

3B Arenado

LF Pederson

C Jansen/Kirk

CF Varsho

2B Biggio/Espinal

DH sign anyone/rotate guys

 

Great lineup!

[Spanky99]

RF Springer

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero

3B Arenado

LF Pederson

C Jansen/Kirk

CF Varsho

2B Biggio/Espinal

DH sign anyone/rotate guys

 

Great lineup!

 

Did you smoke a big fatty, man?

[jaysblue]

Did you smoke a big fatty, man?

 

Lmao.

 

Do you ever want the Jays to win a World Series? Can't mess around in 2024 and 2025. Atkins has to go all in!

[Spanky99]

Lmao.

 

Do you ever want the Jays to win a World Series? Can't mess around in 2024 and 2025. Atkins has to go all in!

 

I don't know, I saw Pederson and thought wtf would they trade him? lol... you're worrying about 24/25, I don;t know man, that 3 way trade your talking about is a little out there, mate. The Cards will retool and look to contend next season in a weak Central. I don't see it.

 

Also, nah, I don't ever want to see the Jays win a WS, meat.

[Terminator]

RF Springer

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero

3B Arenado

LF Pederson

C Jansen/Kirk

CF Varsho

2B Biggio/Espinal

DH sign anyone/rotate guys

 

Great lineup!

 

I think you've just proven my point. Arenado eats up too much money and this lineup proves it.

 

You're rearranging the furniture with Arenado and Pederson in and Chapman and KK out. But since you are already over the luxury tax you've downgraded 2B from Whit to Biggio/Espinal and DH from Belt to "anyone".

 

Literally just throwing in 0 WAR guys bc you already spent too much money. Without putting a whole lot of thought into it I thought Arenado might be somewhat feasible before, but now I'm convinced that there isn't a chance in hell.

[jaysblue]

I think you've just proven my point. Arenado eats up too much money and this lineup proves it.

 

You're rearranging the furniture with Arenado and Pederson in and Chapman and KK out. But since you are already over the luxury tax you've downgraded 2B from Whit to Biggio/Espinal and Belt to "anyone".

 

Literally just throwing in 0 WAR guys bc you already spent too much money. Without putting a whole lot of thought into it I thought Arenado might be somewhat feasible before, but now I'm convinced that there isn't a chance in hell.

 

Arenado doesn't eat up too much money. His contract isn't that bad! How do the Jays replace Chapman? If you have a solution please let us know!

 

As for 2B, who else would the Jays sign or trade for? In house, Biggio/Espinal isn't that bad given they will bat 8th or 9th always.

 

Belt literally was a 0 WAR guy in 2022 lmao. It's called finding value on the FA market. They did that with Belt last offseason. Try to do the same again with another guy. Finding a bat who you could use at DH and another position shouldn't be that difficult and break the bank, geez!

[jaysblue]

I don't know, I saw Pederson and thought wtf would they trade him? lol... you're worrying about 24/25, I don;t know man, that 3 way trade your talking about is a little out there, mate. The Cards will retool and look to contend next season in a weak Central. I don't see it.

 

Also, nah, I don't ever want to see the Jays win a WS, meat.

 

Sign Pederson as a FA this offseason. Giants likely won't trade him given they're in contention.

 

I'm just saying the best time for the Jays to trade for Arenado is likely before this trade deadline. They could move Chapman for assets that could be used to acquire Arenado.

 

Supply/demand. There aren't any viable 3B options available via free agency or trade this offseason, so trading for Arenado wouldn't be a bad option.

[Spanky99]

Sign Pederson as a FA this offseason. Giants likely won't trade him given they're in contention.

 

I'm just saying the best time for the Jays to trade for Arenado is likely before this trade deadline. They could move Chapman for assets that could be used to acquire Arenado.

 

Supply/demand. There aren't any viable 3B options available via free agency or trade this offseason, so trading for Arenado wouldn't be a bad option.

 

I understand what you're saying but I find that a highly unlikely scenario, seriously.

[jaysblue]

I think you've just proven my point. Arenado eats up too much money and this lineup proves it.

 

You're rearranging the furniture with Arenado and Pederson in and Chapman and KK out. But since you are already over the luxury tax you've downgraded 2B from Whit to Biggio/Espinal and DH from Belt to "anyone".

 

Literally just throwing in 0 WAR guys bc you already spent too much money. Without putting a whole lot of thought into it I thought Arenado might be somewhat feasible before, but now I'm convinced that there isn't a chance in hell.

 

Joey Votto

Charlie Blackmon

Evan Longoria

Mark Canha

Michael Brantley

Jesse Winker

Ji-Man Choi

Garrett Cooper

Corey Dickerson

Robbie Grossman

Aaron Hicks

Mike Moustakas

 

Literally here is a group of guys you can most likely sign for a cheap 1-year deal to DH, who could bat 8th or 9th, as well as play other positions and who could provide positive value and won't break the bank. It's not that difficult to replace Belt.

 

Belt was an "anyone" the Jays signed before this season, lets be realistic. A lot of solid low cost options are available year-to-year.

[Terminator]

Thank you for the list bud. Can't wait for for a full season of Cavan Biggio at 2B and the corpse of Corey Dickerson as our DH. The World Series will be easy to make.

[jaysblue]

Thank you for the list bud. Can't wait for for a full season of Cavan Biggio at 2B and the corpse of Corey Dickerson as our DH. The World Series will be easy to make.

 

Belt had a 0 WAR in 2022 bud lmao. I'm sure if I suggested Belt last year at this time, you would be laughing at me. Pretty much that group of bats isn't any different as what Belt was last offseason. You're making it seem like it will be so difficult to replace a bat who platoons and plays DH.

 

Tell me better 2B options who the Jays could sign or trade for? Obviously would love an upgrade over Biggio and Espinal, but please tell me! If the Jays add Arenado, they could live with Biggio/Espinal at 2B.

 

If you want the Jays to cheap out on 2024 and 2025, you likely won't see the Jays winning a World Series in your lifetime!

[L54]

Sign Pederson as a FA this offseason. Giants likely won't trade him given they're in contention.

 

I'm just saying the best time for the Jays to trade for Arenado is likely before this trade deadline. They could move Chapman for assets that could be used to acquire Arenado.

 

Supply/demand. There aren't any viable 3B options available via free agency or trade this offseason, so trading for Arenado wouldn't be a bad option.

 

Why wouldn’t the team trading for Chapman not just use those assets to acquire Arenado?

[max silver]

Why wouldn’t the team trading for Chapman not just use those assets to acquire Arenado?

 

I'm guessing the premise here is that Chapman would be the lower cost acquisition compared to Arenado or something of that nature.

[Terminator]

Can't wait for Biggio and Corey Dickerson, the modern day Bash Brothers, to slash a combined .220/.270/.370 as our 2B and DH on our way to title town next year.

 

This season is just the trailer, next year will be the movie!

[jaysblue]

Why wouldn’t the team trading for Chapman not just use those assets to acquire Arenado?

 

Some teams might not like the money and years that come along with Arenado after this season. A team like the Blue Jays or another big market team could handle the cost and years. Chapman would be pretty much a rental and no long term attachments, so a team that doesn't want a long term commitment, Chapman is likely more attractive to them.

[jaysblue]

Can't wait for Biggio and Corey Dickerson, the modern day Bash Brothers, to slash a combined .220/.270/.370 as our 2B and DH on our way to title town next year.

 

This season is just the trailer, next year will be the movie!

 

Lmao every season so far with Atkins and company has been just the trailer! I'm still waiting for the movie!

 

As for Biggio and Dickerson, it doesn't exactly have to be those guys. Again just was throwing out some names who could be cheap DH/1B/OF options during the offseason, similar to what Belt was last offseason. You're making it sound like it will be impossible to replace Belt as a DH haha. Heck even bring him back for $10-12M. I doubt he's getting multiple year offers this offseason.

Edited July 14, 2023 by jaysblue

[jaysblue]

I'm guessing the premise here is that Chapman would be the lower cost acquisition compared to Arenado or something of that nature.

 

Some teams might not want to pay Arenado $94M past this season, so those teams probably view Chapman as a more attractive option if they don't want to tie themselves down past 2023.

[jaysblue]

Teams that could be looking for a 3B at the trade deadline:

 

Yankees

Twins

Marlins

Mets (if they decide to be buyers)

Phillies

D'Backs

Dodgers (maybe)

 

Yankees are a team that could afford Arenado past this season. Also, would include the Mets, Phillies and possibly the Dodgers, since they have big wallets. Phillies have Bohm who has been decent at 3B, though Arenado definitely is an improvement all around. Yankees and Dodgers could be interested though they both likely want to save money to make a big offer for Ohtani, so they might be hesitant taking on Arenado's contract.

 

The other teams like the Twins, Marlins or D'Backs likely would prefer Chapman given there is no long term attachment past this season. Chapman would be a great fit either with the Marlins or D'Backs at 3B, and would be traded out of the division and league which is also a plus.

[L54]

Okay but if Arenado’s contract is so palatable it doesn’t really make sense to me that the D Backs or whoever wouldn’t just take on the money and acquire him for minimal prospects

[jaysblue]

Okay but if Arenado’s contract is so palatable it doesn’t really make sense to me that the D Backs or whoever wouldn’t just take on the money and acquire him for minimal prospects

 

A team like Arizona likely can't take on that money long term, especially if they want to sign some of their young players and arms to extensions at some point. Same with the Miami Marlins.

 

Someone like the Phillies, Dodgers or Yankees could, same with the Jays. Dodgers and Yankees might be hesitant because they probably want to open up the wallet for Ohtani this offseason.

 

Do you think the Jays would have enough prospect capital to acquire Arenado during the offseason if they wanted to? What would a package look like?

[L54]

A team like Arizona likely can't take on that money long term, especially if they want to sign some of their young players and arms to extensions at some point. Same with the Miami Marlins.

 

Someone like the Phillies, Dodgers or Yankees could, same with the Jays. Dodgers and Yankees might be hesitant because they probably want to open up the wallet for Ohtani this offseason.

 

Do you think the Jays would have enough prospect capital to acquire Arenado during the offseason if they wanted to? What would a package look like?

 

Why can’t they take on that salary? I bet both are bottom half in payroll right now. Those are the types of teams who should be taking on a contract like that to add to the existing core

 

Jays also need to sign their young players but the difference is they’re already running a top five payroll

 

Of course they could put a package together to land him. Does it make sense? Long term no I don’t think it so

[Spanky99]

I don't see the Cards even trading him, they aren't blowing it up. IIRC Arenado has a full no trade clause, right? He'd have to waive it for a team of his choice as well. Not to mention you need 3 teams involved, this is dream weaver s***.

[Stangstag]

I don't see the Cards even trading him, they aren't blowing it up. IIRC Arenado has a full no trade clause, right? He'd have to waive it for a team of his choice as well. Not to mention you need 3 teams involved, this is dream weaver s***.

 

Yeah exactly, full NTC. He’s not coming here. Cards probably hold him.

[Jonn]

Yeah exactly, full NTC. He’s not coming here. Cards probably hold him.

 

If he wanted to go to St. Louis I don’t know why he wouldn’t come to Toronto. St. Louis is an absolute s*** hole. If someone gave me an all expenses paid trip I probably wouldn’t even go lol.

[John_Havok]

If he wanted to go to St. Louis I don’t know why he wouldn’t come to Toronto. St. Louis is an absolute s*** hole. If someone gave me an all expenses paid trip I probably wouldn’t even go lol.

 

He's obviously happy to be in St Louis or he would have opted out of that deal before the start of the season when he could have probably gotten more in free agency than what was remaining. I guess that might have changed given their crappiness this season, but i doubt it's changed that much.

[Spanky99]

He's obviously happy to be in St Louis or he would have opted out of that deal before the start of the season when he could have probably gotten more in free agency than what was remaining. I guess that might have changed given their crappiness this season, but i doubt it's changed that much.

 

It hasn't, he said he wants to retire a Card. lol