2023 Trade Deadline

[L54]

By not costing much, what do you mean?

 

Do you think Tyler O’Neill would be expensive to acquire?

[Spanky99]

Do you think Tyler O’Neill would be expensive to acquire?

 

Not sure, honestly. Zulu maybe, Pearson? It's why I asked, man.

[L54]

Not sure, honestly. Zulu maybe, Pearson? It's why I asked, man.

 

I am just asking, man.

 

I don’t think he’s any good. I wouldn’t even give up Zulu

[Spanky99]

I am just asking, man.

 

I don’t think he’s any good. I wouldn’t even give up Zulu

 

Ok.

[Brownie19]

Cards have been so disappointing this year. O'Neill and Burleson have been awful. Nootbar and Carlson have been just a hair above league average with the bat. Gorman cooled off. Walker can hit, but can't field at all. Wainwright looks like he should have hung them up with Pujols and Yadi.

 

They should definitely sell high on Montgomery and Matz. Not sure what hitters they will move, if any, outside of DeJong. Would they move Yepez?

[G-Snarls]

Real lack of trade action so far

 

Deadline isn't that far off

[John_Havok]

Cards have been so disappointing this year. O'Neill and Burleson have been awful. Nootbar and Carlson have been just a hair above league average with the bat. Gorman cooled off. Walker can hit, but can't field at all. Wainwright looks like he should have hung them up with Pujols and Yadi.

 

They should definitely sell high on Montgomery and Matz. Not sure what hitters they will move, if any, outside of DeJong. Would they move Yepez?

 

Walker is playing the wrong position though, he's a 3B they switched to playing the OF because they have Arenado had nowhere else to play him. He's one reason they could possibly look at moving Arenado more seriously if they can get a return that makes sense.

[connorp]

Walker is playing the wrong position though, he's a 3B they switched to playing the OF because they have Arenado had nowhere else to play him.

 

Yeah that’s why I’m wondering if the think about moving NA. Unless they think Walker will grow into it

[connorp]

Also, not sure they’d be selling high on Matz lol

[jaysblue]

Maybe the only way a trade works out for Arenado is if it's a threeway deal. For example, Jays trade Chapman to another team to get some pieces to send the Cards way. Not sure if there is another partner out there but that could be interesting.

[jaysblue]

Cards have been so disappointing this year. O'Neill and Burleson have been awful. Nootbar and Carlson have been just a hair above league average with the bat. Gorman cooled off. Walker can hit, but can't field at all. Wainwright looks like he should have hung them up with Pujols and Yadi.

 

They should definitely sell high on Montgomery and Matz. Not sure what hitters they will move, if any, outside of DeJong. Would they move Yepez?

 

They probably will shop Montgomery and Flaherty. Sure they will get good returns on them. They likely will trade Matz as well, but doubt they get much.

 

For hitters, probably DeJong for a team needing some pop from 2B/SS or 3B. I don't see them trading Goldy or Arenado unless they get a big package in return. And you like you said with their other bats, they haven't done much this season so doubt a Postseason contender would want them.

[Jonn]

We should find a way to make Arenado happen.

 

And I remain interested in Nootbar.

[jaysblue]

We should find a way to make Arenado happen.

 

And I remain interested in Nootbar.

 

Yeah long term, the Jays infield would be pretty much set especially if they sign Bo and Vlad to extensions. Given the lack of options at 3B next offseason via free agency, Arenado makes sense.

 

Trade Chapman for some young pieces that could be used as assets to acquire Arenado this trade deadline. Definitely possible. Best way to acquire Arenado because if they let Chapman walk as a FA, they likely don't have the pieces to swing a trade in the offseason.

[John_Havok]

Yeah long term, the Jays infield would be pretty much set. Given the lack of options at 3B next offseason via free agency, Arenado makes sense.

 

Trade Chapman for some young pieces that could be used as assets to acquire Arenado. Definitely possible.

 

Surely do love his skillset, but should the Jays really be looking to add another long term deal to the pile at that dollar value?

[L54]

Surely do love his skillset, but should the Jays really be looking to add another long term deal to the pile at that dollar value?

 

Nope they shouldn’t. Paying 30M/year for ages 33-37 seems like a very bad idea

[jaysblue]

Surely do love his skillset, but should the Jays really be looking to add another long term deal to the pile at that dollar value?

 

Are there any other 3B available via free agency or via trade during the offseason though? Chapman likely won't re-sign with the Blue Jays.

 

Arenado's deal isn't that bad long term. The length of 4 years looks worrisome, but his contract is actually structured where he gets cheaper in 2027 and 2028.

 

35M in 2024

 

32M in 2025

 

27M in 2026

 

15M in 2027

 

As well from 2024-2026, the Rockies are paying $5 million each season lol.

 

So 4 years at $94M would be left owing given the Rockies are paying a total of $15M towards his contract.

[jaysblue]

Nope they shouldn’t. Paying 30M/year for ages 33-37 seems like a very bad idea

 

Look at his contract structure.

 

$94M over 4 years after the Rockies pay $15M total towards his contract. So would work out to $23.5M per season. Plus in his last year, Arenado is getting paid $15 million. Most of the contract is frontloaded.

[Terminator]

We are hitting the upper limits of what we can afford already and there will be a number of needs that need to be filled. Our best hitting prospect is a likely 3B and is about to be promoted to AAA.

 

Arenado would be pretty sweet to have but it wouldn't be prudent I don't think.

[Brownie19]

Look at his contract structure.

 

$94M over 4 years after the Rockies pay $15M total towards his contract. So would work out to $23.5M per season. Plus in his last year, Arenado is getting paid $15 million. Most of the contract is frontloaded.

 

I still find it odd that more contracts aren't frontloaded like Arenado's.

[Spanky99]

Yeah long term, the Jays infield would be pretty much set especially if they sign Bo and Vlad to extensions. Given the lack of options at 3B next offseason via free agency, Arenado makes sense.

 

Trade Chapman for some young pieces that could be used as assets to acquire Arenado this trade deadline. Definitely possible. Best way to acquire Arenado because if they let Chapman walk as a FA, they likely don't have the pieces to swing a trade in the offseason.

 

This isn't a video game, bro, lol.

[jaysblue]

We are hitting the upper limits of what we can afford already and there will be a number of needs that need to be filled. Our best hitting prospect is a likely 3B and is about to be promoted to AAA.

 

Arenado would be pretty sweet to have but it wouldn't be prudent I don't think.

 

Ryu off the hooks in 2024, same with Chapman.

 

If the Jays wanted to re-sign Chapman, he will cost more than 4 years and $94 million.

 

Jays need to focus on 2024 and 2025 as their prime windows to go for a World Series, while Bo and Vladdy are under control and while you have Gausman pitching at the top of his game. Arenado at 3B during the 2024 and 2025 season will definitely make this team better overall.

[glory]

Jordan Walker grades out as a horrendous OF. They really need to either trade Arenado and move Walker back to 3B, or trade Walker. Not sure they do either of those things, though.

 

I mean if the Jays can get Walker somehow then go for it, but otherwise I’d avoid any more big contracts to guys in their 30’s. Promote Orelvis to AAA and hope he’s ready for 2024.

[jaysblue]

I still find it odd that more contracts aren't frontloaded like Arenado's.

 

Yeah I'm shocked as well. You're better off paying a player or pitcher a higher AAV when they're in their prime. At least during the later years that AAV isn't much of a burden.

[jaysblue]

This isn't a video game, bro, lol.

 

Lmao. Three way deals have happened before. Even with the Cardinals lol.

 

Arenado's contract isn't that bad when you break it down. If he was a FA, you don't think he gets 4 years at $94M?

[John_Havok]

Are there any other 3B available via free agency or via trade during the offseason though? Chapman likely won't re-sign with the Blue Jays.

 

Arenado's deal isn't that bad long term. The length of 4 years looks worrisome, but his contract is actually structured where he gets cheaper in 2027 and 2028.

 

35M in 2024

 

32M in 2025

 

27M in 2026

 

15M in 2027

 

As well from 2024-2026, the Rockies are paying $5 million each season lol.

 

So 4 years at $94M would be left owing given the Rockies are paying a total of $15M towards his contract.

 

This is more palatable for sure. If you could get the Cards to pay another portion of that down, I'd like it even more.

 

However, this season The jays aren't really looking to switch up at 3b. rest of season projections have Chappy and Arenado within error margins of each other, so swapping out Chappy for Arenado doesnt really move the needle for 2023 - unless you get something of need in return for Chapman that is usable right now. Plus we'd be giving up other assets to get Arenado.

 

2024 and beyond... yeah it could make sense. This maybe lines up better as an upcoming offseasn type of deal if he's not dealt at this deadline.

[Terminator]

Ryu off the hooks in 2024, same with Chapman.

 

If the Jays wanted to re-sign Chapman, he will cost more than 4 years and $94 million.

 

Jays need to focus on 2024 and 2025 as their prime windows to go for a World Series, while Bo and Vladdy are under control and while you have Gausman pitching at the top of his game. Arenado at 3B during the 2024 and 2025 season will definitely make this team better overall.

 

Yeah but the arb guys are going to eat into the Ryu and Chapman money and there are other holes to fill other than just 3B. If we traded for Arenado we'd be dumpster diving everywhere else and would lessen our chances of resigning Vlad or Bo. But it's not completely inconceivable. Arenado's deal seems to be the kind of contract Atkins likes gambling on.

 

But aside from the financial considerations, Arenado's declining play is also worrisome. Walk rate is down, K rate is way up and his defensive metrics are dropping like a lead balloon. The Jays could probably get him for nothing if they wanted. He's a negative asset IMO.

[John_Havok]

Yeah but the arb guys are going to eat into the Ryu and Chapman money and there are other holes to fill other than just 3B. If we traded for Arenado we'd be dumpster diving everywhere else and would lessen our chances of resigning Vlad or Bo. But it's not completely inconceivable. Arenado's deal seems to be the kind of contract Atkins likes gambling on.

 

But aside from the financial considerations, Arenado's declining play is also worrisome. Walk rate is down, K rate is way up and his defensive metrics are dropping like a lead balloon. The Jays could probably get him for nothing if they wanted. He's a negative asset IMO.

 

Id love to see some of his swing metrics to see how much batspeed he may have lost in the past few seasons.

[wilko]

I would say we got Addison Barger knocking on the door, but he's not been good so far this year.

[Terminator]

Stoeten wrote a good article about next year a couple of months ago. https://stoeten.substack.com/p/what-happens-long-term-if-the-jays

 

He has us on the hook for $198.25M in payroll commitments after he mades guesses on the arbitration guys. That would lead to the Jays having $38.75 million before the tax threshhold.

 

He had us keeping Cimber, Biggio and Espinal at the time for a combined 10.5 Million but if we want to clear them off the books we could. Horwitz, Lopez, Schneider, etc. could provide similar production for the league min. So that would give us about $49 million to spend. That sounds like a lot but we will need a 3B, 2B, OF, DH and whatever we decide to do with the pitching.

[Jonn]

I would say we got Addison Barger knocking on the door, but he's not been good so far this year.

 

Hes been mostly hurt. But he’s been disappointing when he’s played as well. He’s basically been disappointing since he said in Spring that he has nothing left to prove in the minors. I like the confidence but apparently he has quite a bit to prove!