GDT: 3/3 Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays 1:37 PM EST

[Olerud363]

Yeah not sure what that was about. Feels like John mentally checked out in the 6th inning or so

 

It is impossible to have the exact same game twice. However what a kick in the nuts this was. So many elements the same as the game 2 playoff loss.

 

1. In both Games Santiago Espinal made the exact same error. In the ALWC it was in the first and cost Gausman some pitches, and ultimately led to Gausman facing the 'Tallet lane' one inning sooner. Good chance Gausman makes it through 6 without the error., Yesterday Espinal made the error in the 8th. Haven't looked at the video of the ALWC error, but my memory says it was the exact same type of grounder.

 

2. In both Games Bass pitches the 8th with no swing and miss.

 

3. In both games Jays hammer a lefty for 8 runs early and then only one (in ALWC) and no (yesterday) add in runs as they get shut down by righties (even the mediocre ones).

 

4. Both games Crawford drives in the tying run.

 

5. Both games big crowd has life sucked out of them.

 

6. Both games end on a routine fly ball to center with winning run at the plate.

 

7. Both games Whit Merrifield removed in sub-optimal way (should have been Brodley in there in ALWC, should have removed Espinal instead yesterday).

[Spanky99]

That's eerily similar, welp!!!

[John_Havok]

Not surprising here, but all 3 impactful calls go against the Jays, and 2 of the 3 were Bassitt getting hosed in the 1st inning directly leading to 4 runs.

 

[Grant77]

Not surprising here, but all 3 impactful calls go against the Jays, and 2 of the 3 were Bassitt getting hosed in the 1st inning directly leading to 4 runs.

 

 

I'm perplexed by their 'runs' calculation. Any way you slice it, the each of the two calls in the first inning directly resulted in 3 runs. You won't find a more clear example of when umpires decided a game.

[Orgfiller]

I'm perplexed by their 'runs' calculation. Any way you slice it, the each of the two calls in the first inning directly resulted in 3 runs. You won't find a more clear example of when umpires decided a game.

 

It’s just plain and simple WP added by the call. A couple of (ultimately extremely costly) blown calls in the first inning won’t usually have a big swing in win probability since the whole game is still to be played. Of course, the reality was those two blown calls resulted in Bassitt throwing a bunch more pitches, further draining the bullpen, and the grand slam being given up.

 

This scorecard doesn’t even mention Merrifield getting a f***ing walk taken away from him, despite not a single umpire actually motioning for a balk regardless of claims that this is what happened, a convenient excuse. 1st and 2nd sure adds some WP to the Jays rather than the inning being over.

[Olerud363]

ItÂ’s just plain and simple WP added by the call. A couple of (ultimately extremely costly) blown calls in the first inning wonÂ’t usually have a big swing in win probability since the whole game is still to be played. Of course, the reality was those two blown calls resulted in Bassitt throwing a bunch more pitches, further draining the bullpen, and the grand slam being given up.

 

This scorecard doesnÂ’t even mention Merrifield getting a f***ing walk taken away from him, despite not a single umpire actually motioning for a balk regardless of claims that this is what happened, a convenient excuse. 1st and 2nd sure adds some WP to the Jays rather than the inning being over.

 

Didn't the second base umpire call the balk? He motioned with his hands and then everyone chilled.... Vlad slowed down and the infielders stood in place so they all had to know that the count was full and play was dead either because Merrifield walked or a balk. When Merrifield didn't walk Vlad at the very least should have spoke up, as he obviously knew it was 3-2.

 

Isn't WP win probability? So isn't the calculation based on some runs scored expectation? So no one on 1-2 count the bad call makes it 2-2 no one on. So expected runs scored in the inning probably only goes from 0 to 0.1 or something. There are many ways it could be done

 

1. Assign Umpire only a fraction of blame for the walk (because Bassitt still had a 2-2 count and was responsible for 3/4 balls)

2. Assign Umpire full responsibility for the walk but assign Bassitt responsibility for everything else.

3. Assign Umpire full responsibility for everything that happens the rest of the inning.

 

It's done the first way I think. Assumes every bad call that seems game changing is only game changing because someone made a bunch of other screwups later in the chain, and the ump screw up is not assigned any special level of blame compared to the other screw ups (like hitting Teoscar, and obviously giving up a homer).

 

Different then the way errors are done in ERA with a 2-out error, getting the pitcher off the hook even if he walks 3 guys and gives 4 homers after the error.

 

Doesn't really account for the extra fatigue the ump screw up causes, but one can argue that Bassitt was also contributing to the extra fatigue with all the balls he threw after too, so the ump screw up is only part of the problem.

[Solaxys]

It is impossible to have the exact same game twice. However what a kick in the nuts this was. So many elements the same as the game 2 playoff loss.

 

1. In both Games Santiago Espinal made the exact same error. In the ALWC it was in the first and cost Gausman some pitches, and ultimately led to Gausman facing the 'Tallet lane' one inning sooner. Good chance Gausman makes it through 6 without the error., Yesterday Espinal made the error in the 8th. Haven't looked at the video of the ALWC error, but my memory says it was the exact same type of grounder.

 

2. In both Games Bass pitches the 8th with no swing and miss.

 

3. In both games Jays hammer a lefty for 8 runs early and then only one (in ALWC) and no (yesterday) add in runs as they get shut down by righties (even the mediocre ones).

 

4. Both games Crawford drives in the tying run.

 

5. Both games big crowd has life sucked out of them.

 

6. Both games end on a routine fly ball to center with winning run at the plate.

 

7. Both games Whit Merrifield removed in sub-optimal way (should have been Brodley in there in ALWC, should have removed Espinal instead yesterday).

 

Schneider said he had to learn from that experience... clearly, he did not. Same beats!

 

The only issue was not using Mayza against Crawford or just walking Crawford, and removing Whit.

 

Couldn't really control what Espinal, KK (failed bunt), Bass, were going to do.

 

I still don't get why Kirk called a slider to Raleigh. That is mind boggling. These bullpen blowouts rarely (if ever) happen when Jano is behind the plate.

[max silver]

Schneider said he had to learn from that experience... clearly, he did not. Same beats!

 

The only issue was not using Mayza against Crawford or just walking Crawford, and removing Whit.

 

Couldn't really control what Espinal, KK (failed bunt), Bass, were going to do.

 

I still don't get why Kirk called a slider to Raleigh. That is mind boggling. These bullpen blowouts rarely (if ever) happen when Jano is behind the plate.

 

Did Kirk originally call slider or was that pitch shaken to by the pitcher?

[Olerud363]

Schneider said he had to learn from that experience... clearly, he did not. Same beats!

 

The only issue was not using Mayza against Crawford or just walking Crawford, and removing Whit.

 

Couldn't really control what Espinal, KK (failed bunt), Bass, were going to do.

 

I still don't get why Kirk called a slider to Raleigh. That is mind boggling. These bullpen blowouts rarely (if ever) happen when Jano is behind the plate.

 

I've heard this quite a bit, but I don't think it is true.

 

Jansen caught game 2 ALWC last year.

 

Kirk caught the bullpen blow up in Anaheim where the Jays ended up winning (because he pinch hit for Jansen)

 

Jansen caught the blow up in the 8th inning in the third game at Houston (because Espinal pinch ran for Kirk).

[Solaxys]

Did Kirk originally call slider or was that pitch shaken to by the pitcher?

 

Went and rewatched. No shake of the head.

Slider was called, Kirk set the target middle of the strike zone (so it'd go below strike zone).

 

He hit two HRs in the series already on a slider that went below strike zone, why would you ever call that when he K-d multiple times to fastball

This is like Chi Sox giving Biggio a slider when dude has not been able to square up a fastball all season.

[Solaxys]

I've heard this quite a bit, but I don't think it is true.

 

 

Gotcha, eye test failed.

 

Then it has to be the gameplan set, cause slider choice is baffling.

[Stangstag]

It is impossible to have the exact same game twice. However what a kick in the nuts this was. So many elements the same as the game 2 playoff loss.

 

1. In both Games Santiago Espinal made the exact same error. In the ALWC it was in the first and cost Gausman some pitches, and ultimately led to Gausman facing the 'Tallet lane' one inning sooner. Good chance Gausman makes it through 6 without the error., Yesterday Espinal made the error in the 8th. Haven't looked at the video of the ALWC error, but my memory says it was the exact same type of grounder.

 

2. In both Games Bass pitches the 8th with no swing and miss.

 

3. In both games Jays hammer a lefty for 8 runs early and then only one (in ALWC) and no (yesterday) add in runs as they get shut down by righties (even the mediocre ones).

 

4. Both games Crawford drives in the tying run.

 

5. Both games big crowd has life sucked out of them.

 

6. Both games end on a routine fly ball to center with winning run at the plate.

 

7. Both games Whit Merrifield removed in sub-optimal way (should have been Brodley in there in ALWC, should have removed Espinal instead yesterday).

 

God damn

[Stangstag]

Went and rewatched. No shake of the head.

Slider was called, Kirk set the target middle of the strike zone (so it'd go below strike zone).

 

He hit two HRs in the series already on a slider that went below strike zone, why would you ever call that when he K-d multiple times to fastball

This is like Chi Sox giving Biggio a slider when dude has not been able to square up a fastball all season.

 

Im convinced Raleigh only hits homeruns on low sliders. Not sure why anyone throws those to him

[Solaxys]

I've heard this quite a bit, but I don't think it is true.

 

Jansen caught game 2 ALWC last year.

 

Kirk caught the bullpen blow up in Anaheim where the Jays ended up winning (because he pinch hit for Jansen)

 

Jansen caught the blow up in the 8th inning in the third game at Houston (because Espinal pinch ran for Kirk).

 

Went and looked at data.

 

Over this month, Kirk called 14 games, Jansen called 14 games (not accounting for any late inning substitutions).

 

When Kirk called, overall ERA and FIP were 4.81 | 4.58 respectively. When Jansen called, overall ERA and FIP were 3.17 | 3.60.

This has a lot to do with Manoah/Bassitt calling their own games more than anything imo (or at least confounding enough for this to not have any merit).

 

But for just relief pitchers,

When Kirk called, ERA and FIP were 6.08 and 5.44 respectively.

When Jansen called on the other hand, ERA and FIP were 2.52 and 3.39 respectively.

 

There is a substantial difference.

[Stangstag]

Went and looked at data.

 

Over this month, Kirk called 14 games, Jansen called 14 games (not accounting for any late inning substitutions).

 

When Kirk called, overall ERA and FIP were 4.81 | 4.58 respectively. When Jansen called, overall ERA and FIP were 3.17 | 3.60.

This has a lot to do with Manoah/Bassitt calling their own games more than anything imo (or at least confounding enough for this to not have any merit).

 

But for just relief pitchers,

When Kirk called, ERA and FIP were 6.08 and 5.44 respectively.

When Jansen called on the other hand, ERA and FIP were 2.52 and 3.39 respectively.

 

There is a substantial difference.

 

Interesting, thanks for doing the research

 

Could chalk it up to SSS, but that’s still a substantial difference. You should check 2022

[max silver]

Went and looked at data.

 

Over this month, Kirk called 14 games, Jansen called 14 games (not accounting for any late inning substitutions).

 

When Kirk called, overall ERA and FIP were 4.81 | 4.58 respectively. When Jansen called, overall ERA and FIP were 3.17 | 3.60.

This has a lot to do with Manoah/Bassitt calling their own games more than anything imo (or at least confounding enough for this to not have any merit).

 

But for just relief pitchers,

When Kirk called, ERA and FIP were 6.08 and 5.44 respectively.

When Jansen called on the other hand, ERA and FIP were 2.52 and 3.39 respectively.

 

There is a substantial difference.

 

Where do you go to look up this information?

[Solaxys]

Where do you go to look up this information?

 

fangraphs

[The_DH]

Went and looked at data.

 

Over this month, Kirk called 14 games, Jansen called 14 games (not accounting for any late inning substitutions).

 

When Kirk called, overall ERA and FIP were 4.81 | 4.58 respectively. When Jansen called, overall ERA and FIP were 3.17 | 3.60.

This has a lot to do with Manoah/Bassitt calling their own games more than anything imo (or at least confounding enough for this to not have any merit).

 

But for just relief pitchers,

When Kirk called, ERA and FIP were 6.08 and 5.44 respectively.

When Jansen called on the other hand, ERA and FIP were 2.52 and 3.39 respectively.

 

There is a substantial difference.

 

I hadn't seen the statistics, but from an eye test this seems likely. Hopefully the team is doing some work on this.

[G-Snarls]

Glad I missed this game yesterday. The Mariners are quickly becoming one of my most hated teams.

 

Same

 

But conveniently, they're not really very good

[G-Snarls]

Went and looked at data.

 

Over this month, Kirk called 14 games, Jansen called 14 games (not accounting for any late inning substitutions).

 

When Kirk called, overall ERA and FIP were 4.81 | 4.58 respectively. When Jansen called, overall ERA and FIP were 3.17 | 3.60.

This has a lot to do with Manoah/Bassitt calling their own games more than anything imo (or at least confounding enough for this to not have any merit).

 

But for just relief pitchers,

When Kirk called, ERA and FIP were 6.08 and 5.44 respectively.

When Jansen called on the other hand, ERA and FIP were 2.52 and 3.39 respectively.

 

There is a substantial difference.

 

Thanks for this

 

SSS could be a factor but that's a big gap to explain and most of us feel that Jansen does in fact call a better game

 

There's probably something to it

[max silver]

fangraphs

 

Is there a tab or something to click for this, or did you need to crunch some of the numbers on your own?

 

I think the reliever information may be more useful if you were to compare individual relievers with Jansen calling vs Kirk calling to make it more of an apples to apples comparison. Let's hypothetically surmise that Kirk has been saddled with a bunch of Cimber and Bass appearances for instance, where Jansen has seen appearances with more effective relievers like Swanson and Romano (not saying this is the case, just wondering what the splits look like).

[Solaxys]

Interesting, thanks for doing the research

 

Could chalk it up to SSS, but that’s still a substantial difference. You should check 2022

 

I did something like this last year's June as well, when we had the stretch of west coast nightmare.

It wasn't as drastic but the cumulative ERA/FIP was in favor of Jano versus Kirk/Moreno.

 

Kirk is still young, so I am not putting this on him, someone from the god damn bench should be like "NO SLIDER TO RALEIGH unless it is a noncompetitive pitch, off the f***ing plate and away!"

[Solaxys]

Is there a tab or something to click for this, or did you need to crunch some of the numbers on your own?

 

I think the reliever information may be more useful if you were to compare individual relievers with Jansen calling vs Kirk calling to make it more of an apples to apples comparison. Let's hypothetically surmise that Kirk has been saddled with a bunch of Cimber and Bass appearances for instance, where Jansen has seen appearances with more effective relievers like Swanson and Romano (not saying this is the case, just wondering what the splits look like).

 

Manually crunched it, I can compare those later when I get home. Shouldn't be that difficult for 28 games.

[max silver]

Manually crunched it, I can compare those later when I get home. Shouldn't be that difficult for 28 games.

 

Right on, I look forward to seeing the results. I recall an interesting Chris Black Twitter thread which outlined how Kirk had a better ERA in 2022 with quite a few key members of the Jays pitching staff vs Jansen. I think he was outlining the difference was more due to Kirk's better framing vs Jansen vs a pitch calling issue though. It seems odd that they would call a dramatically different game though given how each player is using the same scouting reports and the information is readily available in their wristband cheat sheets, but it certainly seems reasonable to think that Jansen is better at this given how much more experience he has vs Kirk.

[John_Havok]

Right on, I look forward to seeing the results. I recall an interesting Chris Black Twitter thread which outlined how Kirk had a better ERA in 2022 with quite a few key members of the Jays pitching staff vs Jansen. I think he was outlining the difference was more due to Kirk's better framing vs Jansen vs a pitch calling issue though. It seems odd that they would call a dramatically different game though given how each player is using the same scouting reports and the information is readily available in their wristband cheat sheets, but it certainly seems reasonable to think that Jansen is better at this given how much more experience he has vs Kirk.

 

yeah stuff like this is really hard to truly quantify or find meaningful info. ONe thing I'd love to know is how much leeway the catchers have in calling a pitch that maybe doesnt fit with their cheat sheet. Like, in certain situations if they have a read on a hitter than he is sitting on a slider, but the cheat sheet says that the slider is what they would want to go to... can they change it up at will on their own?

 

Plus with guys like Bassitt, he's calling his own game because it would take far too long for a catcher to cycle through all 17 of his pitches and locations in the pitch clock timer, so basically any of his starts this year wont be usefull data in catcher game calling.

 

Relievers... most of them have two pitches, so calling pitch A vs B probably doesn't mean a whole lot if the pitcher doesnt execute. Plus... you'd need to separate the team with good hitters vs bad hitters and see if there's a difference with one cather vs the other vs similar strength lineups. Youd also have to consider platoon advantages, if one catcher seems to catch more PAs with that going his way... there's so much noise and nuance to this kind of thing, that it makes it exceptionally difficult to find meaningful numbers

[max silver]

yeah stuff like this is really hard to truly quantify or find meaningful info. ONe thing I'd love to know is how much leeway the catchers have in calling a pitch that maybe doesnt fit with their cheat sheet. Like, in certain situations if they have a read on a hitter than he is sitting on a slider, but the cheat sheet says that the slider is what they would want to go to... can they change it up at will on their own?

 

Plus with guys like Bassitt, he's calling his own game because it would take far too long for a catcher to cycle through all 17 of his pitches and locations in the pitch clock timer, so basically any of his starts this year wont be usefull data in catcher game calling.

 

Relievers... most of them have two pitches, so calling pitch A vs B probably doesn't mean a whole lot if the pitcher doesnt execute. Plus... you'd need to separate the team with good hitters vs bad hitters and see if there's a difference with one cather vs the other vs similar strength lineups. Youd also have to consider platoon advantages, if one catcher seems to catch more PAs with that going his way... there's so much noise and nuance to this kind of thing, that it makes it exceptionally difficult to find meaningful numbers

 

There is also other extenuating factors to consider such as umpires who are having a rough game calling balls and strikes, and the seemingly random luck related factors that can directly contribute to extra runs being scored. Bassit was f***ed over hard by the home plate umpire in last night's game for instance, and instead of being out of the inning with zero runs scored allowed a grand slam later in the inning. Garcia for instance made a great pitch in the 9th last night that led to a weak grounder to second, but it was so softly hit that the runner was able to advance to second, scoring on a base hit later on. A little harder hit ball may have led to a force out or even a double play and then the game ends before extra innings.

 

The manager putting his relievers in a position to succeed matters a lot as well. Using Bass in a leverage situation against a left handed batter late in the game despite his struggles instead of Mayza, who's only use is retiring left handed batters was asking for trouble.

Edited May 1, 2023 by max silver

[Olerud363]

Manually crunched it, I can compare those later when I get home. Shouldn't be that difficult for 28 games.

 

 

You mentioned something about substitutions, however it wasn't clear that you accounted for them or not. Jansen's worst game came when he subbed in late for Kirk in Houston and caught Pop and Cimber, and in fact that was the single worst bullpen inning this season. That would make a big difference, but maybe you accounted for it.

 

Anyway, I don't actually have strong feelings on this, other than to point out Jansen had 2 recent bullpen blowups, one of them being the most important bullpen blow up in the franchises history. So I don't have the impression he or Kirk is that much better than the other.

[Olerud363]

Gotcha, eye test failed.

 

Then it has to be the gameplan set, cause slider choice is baffling.

 

I'm ironically using the eye test (or memory test here) just thinking that Jansen was catching the ALWC2 and thinking a couple of weeks ago of watching a game where the Jays had the bases loaded no one out, didn't score, then Jansen caught a bad bullpen inning in Houston. So my impression is that Jansen was catching some bad innings... but the data may not back me up as you pointed out.

 

Did Rayleigh hit a slider for the double off Romano in ALCW2? I can't remember. That is all a blur (and was also 7 months ago)

[Solaxys]

Right on, I look forward to seeing the results.

 

Okay here's the breakdown.

I accounted for any catching changes during the game, so the values might be different

 

Overall

Kirk: 4.41 ERA | Danny: 4.2 ERA

* The one houston inning that I gave to Kirk initially, attributed to Danny now; Cimber pitching a 54 ERA doing wonders to even this up

Kirk: 5.017 FIP | Danny: 3.98 FIP

Kirk: 46% HH Rate | Danny: 34% HH Rate

Kirk: 15% Sw Strike | Danny: 15% Sw Strike

 

Romano

Kirk: 4.5 ERA | Danny: 0 ERA

Kirk: 2.505 FIP | Danny: 1.58 FIP

Kirk: 31% HH Rate | Danny: 10% HH Rate

Kirk: 17% Sw Strike | Danny: 19% Sw Strike

 

Mayza

Kirk: 1.29 ERA | Danny: 0 ERA

Kirk: 1.67 FIP | Danny: 1.88 FIP

Kirk: 25% HH Rate | Danny: 19% HH Rate

Kirk: 12% Sw Strike | Danny: 8% Sw Strike

 

Swanson

Kirk: 1.5 ERA | Danny: 1.15 ERA

Kirk: 3.38 FIP | Danny: 2.755 FIP

Kirk: 72% HH Rate | Danny: 25% HH Rate

Kirk: 24% Sw Strike | Danny: 20% Sw Strike

 

Richards

Kirk: 1.1254 ERA | Danny: 0 ERA

Kirk: 1.67 FIP | Danny: 1.88 FIP

Kirk: 25% HH Rate | Danny: 19% HH Rate

Kirk: 12% Sw Strike | Danny: 8% Sw Strike

 

Garcia

Kirk: 7.59 ERA | Danny: 3.6 ERA

Kirk: 3.41 FIP | Danny: 5.78 FIP

Kirk: 54% HH Rate | Danny: 47% HH Rate

Kirk: 17% Sw Strike | Danny: 15% Sw Strike

 

Pop

Kirk: 2.25 ERA | Danny: 9 ERA

Kirk: 7.18 FIP | Danny: 2.55 FIP

Kirk: 45% HH Rate | Danny: 28% HH Rate

Kirk: 14% Sw Strike | Danny: 10% Sw Strike

 

Bass

Kirk: 12.75 ERA | Danny: 2.25 ERA

Kirk: 10.30 FIP | Danny: 2.13 FIP

Kirk: 51% HH Rate | Danny: 54% HH Rate

Kirk: 8% Sw Strike | Danny: 15% Sw Strike

 

Cimber

Kirk: 2.25 ERA | Danny: 10.29 ERA

Kirk: 10.88 FIP | Danny: 9.24 FIP

Kirk: 58% HH Rate | Danny: 52% HH Rate

Kirk: 3% Sw Strike | Danny: 8% Sw Strike

 

TL;DR: Danny consistently seems to get better FIP and lower HH%.

The Sw Strike (Whiffs) and ERA are largely even (Pop and Cimber worse with Danny; Garcia and Bass worse with Kirk). Cimber just sucked the entire month, irrespective of catcher, and if he remove his one 54 ERA inning, Danny's metrics are significantly higher.

 

Maybe its all variance and maybe it equalizes from all the stolen strikes due to Kirk's framing. But the HH% rate typically in favor of Danny might imply he can read batters better than Kirk.

[Solaxys]

I'm ironically using the eye test (or memory test here) just thinking that Jansen was catching the ALWC2 and thinking a couple of weeks ago of watching a game where the Jays had the bases loaded no one out, didn't score, then Jansen caught a bad bullpen inning in Houston. So my impression is that Jansen was catching some bad innings... but the data may not back me up as you pointed out.

 

Did Rayleigh hit a slider for the double off Romano in ALCW2? I can't remember. That is all a blur (and was also 7 months ago)

 

No he hit it off Manoah's fastball.