General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Jays24]

Perhaps the eye test tells you Kiermaier is a better defender but the metrics don't back that up. We can compare these players metrics directly to paint a more complete picture. I'm going to utilize Varsho's last two seasons of center field play as he's produced very similar rates in these seasons, and will use Kiermaier's 2023 only as his numbers were most likely negatively affected by a bad hip in 2022.

 

DRS/OAA Overall Comparison

 

Varsho 841 innings 23 DRS (27.3 DRS/1000 innings) 18 OAA (21.4 OAA/1000 innings)

Kiermaier 981 innings 18 DRS (18.3 DRS/1000 innings) 13 OAA (13.3 OAA/1000 innings)

 

Kiermaier has a higher top speed compared to Varsho, but Varsho has simply been a far more effective fielder on a rate basis. It remains to be seen if Varsho can replicate these types of numbers over an entire season in center field as he's yet to play a full season there. If these numbers stick he is arguably the best center field defender in the sport.

 

Kiermaier also possessed a stronger throwing arm, but he hasn't turned this into extra outs compared to Varsho who has a relatively weak throwing arm in comparison. I think Varsho benefits from great technique as he gets into position very quickly, gets rid of the ball quickly (likely his years at catcher benefit him here) and he has a very accurate arm as well.

 

I have also included the DRS throwing component over the same timeframe. Statcast also has this type of statistic, but I did not include it as it does not break down the outs saved per position played so it's not an apples to apples comparison as Varsho split his time between left field and center field.

 

DRS Throwing Runs Saved

 

Varsho 4 DRS (4.8 DRS/1000 innings)

Kiermaier 2 DRS (2.03 DRS/1000 innings)

 

You see, you look at those numbers and think they provide the complete picture. While its a great summary, youre not factoring things like teams dont run on guys who are known to have strong/accurate arms. So i should give credit to Varsho because of him getting more oppprtunities?

 

There are certain things I will rely on my eye test when I was able to see both for a full season. KK is the better overall fielder and actually has a proven track record at CF with no slow down at the moment. Just my 2 cents.

[Brownie19]

It's funny that you think you'll win Jays24 over with logic and facts. Best of luck. The most important metric you've omitted is how injury prone KK is. Steamers projects him to play 97 games this year and I think that's about all you could expect from him in 2024.

[Jimcanuck]

At least Jays24 is not saying KK > Bellinger like a certain someone

[Jays24]

It's funny that you think you'll win Jays24 over with logic and facts. Best of luck. The most important metric you've omitted is how injury prone KK is. Steamers projects him to play 97 games this year and I think that's about all you could expect from him in 2024.

 

I already said that because of age and the fact we already have Varsho under contract, he should be our starting CF in 2024.

 

All things even, KK is the better overall defender. There is a reason why KK was CF every single inning he played with not a single soul wanting Varsho to play there while moving KK to LF.

 

Unlike the year we had Semien at 2B who majority thought he'd be better at SS over Bo defensively. We had KK signed to a 1 year deal and still played him at CF everytime over a guy who is supposed to be our future. There was a reason for that but don't let logic get in your way lol.

[Frenchsoup]

I think we can do better then KK, great year he had though. Hopefully he can get a 2 year contract from someone

[G-Snarls]

I think we can do better then KK, great year he had though. Hopefully he can get a 2 year contract from someone

 

He was great this year and I like the guy a lot

 

But yeah, unless we're adding some heavy bats at DH/2B/3B we just can't have the same OF as last year. Great D but just not enough offense.

[BatFlip]

You don't put elite CFs in f***ing left field. You put mashers there. Then you score more runs.

 

Amen.

[max silver]

I already said that because of age and the fact we already have Varsho under contract, he should be our starting CF in 2024.

 

All things even, KK is the better overall defender. There is a reason why KK was CF every single inning he played with not a single soul wanting Varsho to play there while moving KK to LF.

 

Unlike the year we had Semien at 2B who majority thought he'd be better at SS over Bo defensively. We had KK signed to a 1 year deal and still played him at CF everytime over a guy who is supposed to be our future. There was a reason for that but don't let logic get in your way lol.

 

So despite all of the evidence you view Kiermaier as a better center fielder just because. That checks out based on your entire posting history.

 

Kiermaier was on record stating that he chose to sign with the Blue Jays because they promised him a starting job in center field. It shouldn't come as a massive shock to you that they were true to their word and started Kiermaier there as promised.

 

The Semien situation is similar but had some key differences. Atkins stated that they weren't going to move Bo off of the short stop position for a single season as they still viewed him as having potential to be a quality defender at the position. At that time it was also stated that there was no interest in moving Bo off of the position for a single season, as if he were moved it would be a permanent position swap and not a single year move. Moving Bo for a single season would have denied him of the necessary repetitions required for him to improve at the position. Varsho is already a premium defender in center field, so there would be no lost developmental time if he were to spent time at a different position.

[glory]

3B being manned by the internal options is a viable outcome

 

But the team would need to be bringing in a serious LF and DH to stomach that risk

 

I'd have no issues going with a Biggio/Espinal platoon at 3B if my alternatives are giving Chapman a Springer contract or anything else currently on the FA market. Either Biggio/Espinal works, or more likely they hold you over until July when you can try to make a trade deadline pickup to fix 3B. Not sure the FO would go for that option, though. And yeah, they definitely need to put more resources into LF/DH in that scenario to make up for the uncertainty at 3B.

[wilko]

I'd have no issues going with a Biggio/Espinal platoon at 3B if my alternatives are giving Chapman a Springer contract or anything else currently on the FA market. Either Biggio/Espinal works, or more likely they hold you over until July when you can try to make a trade deadline pickup to fix 3B. Not sure the FO would go for that option, though. And yeah, they definitely need to put more resources into LF/DH in that scenario to make up for the uncertainty at 3B.

 

You think Schneider is a lock for 2B? I was thinking of a 2B platoon between him and Biggio (ride the hot bat) and if they go internal 3B would be one of Barger/Espinal/Martinez.

[Frenchsoup]

He was great this year and I like the guy a lot

 

But yeah, unless we're adding some heavy bats at DH/2B/3B we just can't have the same OF as last year. Great D but just not enough offense.

 

 

 

I would take him on my roster but it would have to be for like 1/3

[glory]

I think Teoscar is a decent left field option as his metrics for his last few seasons out there looked good in limited playing time. I think if the team brought in someone like Michael A Taylor as a platoon option/defensive replacement type of 4th outfielder the team would be in very good shape defensively in the outfield with Teoscar offering potential upside with the bat if he bounces back.

 

Yeah the more I look at this market, the more sense Teoscar makes. He has something the Jays need (power) and was a 133 wRC+ player from 2020-22 so there's a possible buy low element involved. Between the power, upside, and positive PR that bringing back a popular player would bring, it seems like a no brainer compared to the alternatives. Definitely a risky profile though with the K's and the chase/whiff rates. If it's between him and a 7-8 year deal for Bellinger, then I hope logic prevails.

[Frenchsoup]

I think Schneider gets traded

[glory]

You think Schneider is a lock for 2B? I was thinking of a 2B platoon between him and Biggio (ride the hot bat) and if they go internal 3B would be one of Barger/Espinal/Martinez.

 

It doesn't appear the Jays view Orelvis or Barger as 3B options anymore. Orelvis probably needs more seasoning anyway, but if Barger is a competent defensive 3B then he should definitely be someone they consider in that role. Seems like they may see him as more of a OF now, though.

[BigCecil]

You don't put elite CFs in f***ing left field. You put mashers there. Then you score more runs.

 

Part of the challenge in signing Bellinger is we will be paying for his CF value, when we need to play Varsho in CF to get more than 2 WAR out of him.

 

I guess if the AAV/Term is big enough Bellinger will play either corner and be happy about it. He better f***ing mash. Lots of risk and a total window move.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah the more I look at this market, the more sense Teoscar makes. He has something the Jays need (power) and was a 133 wRC+ player from 2020-22 so there's a possible buy low element involved. Between the power, upside, and positive PR that bringing back a popular player would bring, it seems like a no brainer compared to the alternatives. Definitely a risky profile though with the K's and the chase/whiff rates. If it's between him and a 7-8 year deal for Bellinger, then I hope logic prevails.

 

Could we do Teoscar and KK??

 

Plan could look something like:

 

Vs righties:

 

LF Varsho

CF KK

RF Springer

DH Hernandez

 

Vs lefties

 

LF Hernandez

CF Varsho

RF Springer

DH Kirk

 

Late game with a small lead defensive switch to:

 

LF Varsho

CF KK

RF Springer

[G-Snarls]

Though you know what? KK and Varsho have pretty equivalent L/R splits, if anything just a little worse vs LHP for Varsho.

 

KK career OPS vs RHP: .737

KK career OPS vs LHP: .666

 

Varsho career OPS vs RHP: 736

Varsho career OPS vs LHP: .648

[Frenchsoup]

I'm actually a big Jankowski fan. I'd sign him for 3/30

[BTS]

I'm actually a big Jankowski fan. I'd sign him for 3/30

 

You’re going to have to reduce the troll spam by like 80%

[Frenchsoup]

But Queen Bee!?!!!!

[jaysblue]

Some FA bats (OF/DH) who could be had on one-year deals:

 

Brantley

Gallo

Myers

Grichuk

JD Martinez

Belt

KK

Merrifield

Profar

Rosario

Meadows

Pham

Winker

Duvall

Santana

Cron

 

3B:

Urshela

Longoria

Escobar

Moustakas

Donaldson

 

Obviously not a fan of every single one of these bats, though from a glance these are the likely bats who you could sign on one-year deals. I think it's best to turn to the trade market for 3B if Polanco or Moncada could be had at decent prices.

 

Which bats would you like to see in LF and at DH? Likely could even create a platoon at one of those positions.

[Laika]

Donovan Solano, Brian Anderson, or Kiner-Falefa might be better options than Eduardo Escobar.

 

Justin Turner will be a one year deal, so old.

 

Ji-Man Choi and David Peralta and Dom Smith would be... absolute bottom of the barrel options... Garrett Cooper and Kyle Lewis. Now we are approaching MiLB deal territory. Robbie Grossman.

 

Honestly I really want Joey Gallo in the fold. I'd give him OF, 3B, and 1B gloves in camp and tell him he is playing everywhere.

[jaysblue]

Donovan Solano, Brian Anderson, or Kiner-Falefa might be better options than Eduardo Escobar.

 

Justin Turner will be a one year deal, so old.

 

Ji-Man Choi and David Peralta and Dom Smith would be... absolute bottom of the barrel options... Garrett Cooper and Kyle Lewis. Now we are approaching MiLB deal territory. Robbie Grossman.

 

Honestly I really want Joey Gallo in the fold. I'd give him OF, 3B, and 1B gloves in camp and tell him he is playing everywhere.

 

Yeah I love Gallo for his power and if he's used strictly against RHP only. He could definitely be a nice half of a platoon. Can he still play some 3B?

 

Forgot about Turner. Not sure he can play 3B over a full season, but as a DH option he's definitely not bad.

 

The rest like you said are bottom of the barrel options haha.

[Frenchsoup]

Some FA bats (OF/DH) who could be had on one-year deals:

 

Brantley

Gallo

Myers

Grichuk

JD Martinez

Belt

KK

Merrifield

Profar

Rosario

Meadows

Pham

Winker

Duvall

Santana

Cron

 

3B:

Urshela

Longoria

Escobar

Moustakas

Donaldson

 

Obviously not a fan of every single one of these bats, though from a glance these are the likely bats who you could sign on one-year deals. I think it's best to turn to the trade market for 3B if Polanco or Moncada could be had at decent prices.

 

Which bats would you like to see in LF and at DH? Likely could even create a platoon at one of those positions.

 

Winker, Brantley, Belt, Santana as a fall back guy but he's a nice hitter still.

[Frenchsoup]

I like Ji-Man he's a tough out and would rake here. David Peralta is a pro.

[Frenchsoup]

I'm not loving the Moncada Idea tbh. But I get why your intrigued by him. Just has to get on base more and play solid d.

[jaysblue]

Some SP free agents who likely sign one-year deals:

 

Ryu

Montas

Paxton

Wood

Giolito

Manaea

Hill

Lauer

German

Kluber

Velasquez

Junis

Bauer (would be awesome but doubt the Jays sign him)

 

In case the Jays trade Kikuchi or Manoah.

 

Wouldn't mind rolling the dice on Montas, Paxton or Wood as a No. 5 starter. Lauer could be a nice buy low/bounceback candidate. Always has had solid K rates. Reminds me of a lesser version of Robbie Ray.

 

Junis would be a nice pickup as a swingman. Could start a couple of games if needed, or pitch out of the pen. Nice insurance to have.

 

I would go hard after Woodruff. Need to sign him to a 2-year-deal to have him for 2025, but if all the medicals look good, do it. Could be excellent value if he returns to his former self.

[jaysblue]

Winker, Brantley, Belt, Santana as a fall back guy but he's a nice hitter still.

 

Yeah Brantley wouldn't be a bad stopgap at DH/LF. Could hit him near the top of the lineup. Won't provide any power at all but excellent contact skills and doesn't strikeout at all.

 

No issue in bringing Belt back as a DH on another one-year deal if someone like JDM is too expensive or looking for a 2-3 year deal.

 

Only issue is both of them are very injury prone and you would need some insurance in case one or both of them don't pan out. I have no problem bringing one of those guys in, but wouldn't advise to sign both of them.

[Frenchsoup]

Rizzo or Votto would be on my outline plan for drawing up this roster

[Frenchsoup]

Both are fairly cheap for what they can bring to the table on any given night. I think Votto can bang out 35 for you easily in Roger's. And Rizzo is just a gamer who does all of the Lil things right and is as tough as heaven.