General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[John_Havok]

They won't do what it takes to close, except for when they have:

 

2020: Hyun-Jin Ryu (7th highest total contract in free agent class @ $80 mill)

2021: George Springer (1st highest total contract in free agent class @ $150 mill)

2022: Kevin Gausman (9th highest total contract in free agent class @ $110 mill)

 

I mean, I guess it depends on what your baseline expectation is here. Are they supposed to hand out the highest contract every single year for you to be satisfied? Are the mighty Blue Jays the only MLB team in the league vying for free agents?

 

Toronto sports fans are insufferable. When this regime was brought in, the immediate fan conspiracy theory was that Rogers was bringing in penny-pinchers from the Indians so that they could go cheap and squeeze the payroll. When that turned out to be false (#9 total team payroll in the league last season, which has been increasing every single year over the past ~3 seasons), the barometer has now shifted to the "problem" being that they're now going for too many free agents, but they aren't signing them all! A nice shift from: "oh no we're going to be the Oakland A's" to "I can't believe we let the lowly Dodgers outbid us for Ohtani".

 

In reality, you just described 97% of the teams in the league: "they're in on everyone, up to a point". Another term for that would be: being smart. The counter example is what, the New York Mets lol? Are we back to concluding that free agency spending sprees are the correct way to build a winner or something? I guess I missed that study.

 

Yeah, looking at most fans comments online you'd think Gurriel Jr re-signing in Arizona was worse than the Jays missing out on Ohtani.

[BTS]

Why is there no talk about KK?

 

It would actually be really good to have him back. The team currently only has two outfielders that should be on the opening day roster.

[wilko]

It would actually be really good to have him back. The team currently only has two outfielders that should be on the opening day roster.

 

I wouldn't mind KK coming back, but I'd rather them get a LF with some pop. Put Varsho in CF where they can maximize his talent.

[BTS]

I wouldn't mind KK coming back, but I'd rather them get a LF with some pop. Put Varsho in CF where they can maximize his talent.

 

KK is a perfect 4th OF. He'd get 400+ PA in that role anyway

[wilko]

KK is a perfect 4th OF. He'd get 400+ PA in that role anyway

 

I agree, for a 4th OF he'd be great. I'm not sure he's looking for that just yet.

[MikeM3]

Why is there no talk about KK?

 

Because he said he's done playing on turf

[glory]

Another year of Varsho in LF would be a waste. Let him be a CF where his defensive value would be the highest, and then hope he bounces back to a league average bat. Kiermaier will probably want to start somewhere and it shouldn’t be here. A LF with some power would be ideal, although if the Jays are looking to maintain strong defense all around then their options are limited. Market is cluttered with no defense bats in the OF.

[wilko]

Another year of Varsho in LF would be a waste. Let him be a CF where his defensive value would be the highest, and then hope he bounces back to a league average bat. Kiermaier will probably want to start somewhere and it shouldn’t be here. A LF with some power would be ideal, although if the Jays are looking to maintain strong defense all around then their options are limited. Market is cluttered with no defense bats in the OF.

 

It's slim pickings... Current list of free agent LF's.

 

Joc Pederson (32, 2.7)

Tommy Pham (36, 2.5)

David Peralta (36, 1.8)

Michael Brantley (37, 1.4)

Joey Gallo (30, 1.4)

Travis Jankowski (33, 1.0)

Jurickson Profar (31, 0.6)

Jordan Luplow (30, 0.5)

Eddie Rosario (32, 0.2)

Robbie Grossman (34, 0.1)

Corey Dickerson (35, -0.2)

Ben Gamel (32, -0.2)

AJ Pollock (36, -0.4)

Austin Meadows (30, -0.5)

[Laika]

It would actually be really good to have him back. The team currently only has two outfielders that should be on the opening day roster.

 

Nah, that roster construction wasn't ideal.

 

Varsho is the CF.

 

I mean he's a fallback option but I would want him to be a platoon utility OF and he would play RF a lot.

[Frenchsoup]

Jankowskis a winner i wouldn't mind him. Always liked what Ben Gamel brings to the table.

[Laika]

Jankowskis a winner i wouldn't mind him. Always liked what Ben Gamel brings to the table.

 

Ben Gamel legally changed his name

 

He is Gen Bamel now

[connorp]

Another year of Varsho in LF would be a waste. Let him be a CF where his defensive value would be the highest, and then hope he bounces back to a league average bat. Kiermaier will probably want to start somewhere and it shouldn’t be here. A LF with some power would be ideal, although if the Jays are looking to maintain strong defense all around then their options are limited. Market is cluttered with no defense bats in the OF.

 

Logic dictates that if you go with 3 plus Defensive OF that provide value covering ground, they’re each going to eat away at the others value to some degree. Jays would be better served to put a big bat in a corner

[Olerud363]

Jankowskis a winner i wouldn't mind him. Always liked what Ben Gamel brings to the table.

 

Were you alive in the late 80s early 90s? Who do you think made more of an impact to the 1989-1992 Jays? Tom Lawless or Pat Tabler. I really liked what both brought to the table and have been going back and forth about the issue for over 30 years. Really curious what someone like you, who appreciates the under-rated players thinks?

[BTS]

Nah, that roster construction wasn't ideal.

 

Varsho is the CF.

 

I mean he's a fallback option but I would want him to be a platoon utility OF and he would play RF a lot.

 

If the team gets an everyday LF I think he fits as a 4th OF type who starts 2-3 times a week to give the other guys a day off. Probably ends up with extended runs in RF when Springer is hurt.

[Jays24]

We won't bring KK back simply because he makes Varsho look useless. I'd rather have him patrolling CF even at age 35 or whatever he's at.

[Olerud363]

Jankowskis a winner i wouldn't mind him. Always liked what Ben Gamel brings to the table.

 

 

If you didn't follow the 1989-1993 Jays I have another question. Who do you think made more of an impact to the 2009-2010 Jays. Kevin Millar or Dewayne Wise? Both brought a lot of intangibles and I don't think it was coincidence that Jose Bautista broke out playing along side them. I wonder who would be the player that could have the same effect on Daulton Varsho?

[Frenchsoup]

If you didn't follow the 1989-1993 Jays I have another question. Who do you think made more of an impact to the 2009-2010 Jays. Kevin Millar or Dewayne Wise? Both brought a lot of intangibles and I don't think it was coincidence that Jose Bautista broke out playing along side them. I wonder who would be the player that could have the same effect on Daulton Varsho?

 

Bring in Votto and Brantley... im sure they would help turn Varsho and Biggio into all stars.

[max silver]

We won't bring KK back simply because he makes Varsho look useless. I'd rather have him patrolling CF even at age 35 or whatever he's at.

 

Varsho is almost a lock to produce a higher WAR total compared to Kiermaier if he plays an entire season in center field. He's basically averaged 4 wins per season in his time in center field over his career and he's most likely a better center field defender than Kiermaier is at this stage of his career. He's a better baserunner as well, has a much better offensive projection than Kiermaier (106 wRC+ for Varsho vs 88 wRC+ for Kiermaier), is younger/doesn't miss time due to injury, and will be less expensive to boot.

 

Literally the only thing that was better about Kiermaier vs Varsho last season was the results with the bat, but dig a little deeper and you see the two players produced nearly identical expected statistics, with Varsho coming in a little higher with a .303 xWOBA vs Kiermaier at .301 xWOBA.

[MikeM3]

You don't put elite CFs in f***ing left field. You put mashers there. Then you score more runs.

[Jays24]

Varsho is almost a lock to produce a higher WAR total compared to Kiermaier if he plays an entire season in center field. He's basically averaged 4 wins per season in his time in center field over his career and he's most likely a better center field defender than Kiermaier is at this stage of his career. He's a better baserunner as well, has a much better offensive projection than Kiermaier (106 wRC+ for Varsho vs 88 wRC+ for Kiermaier), is younger/doesn't miss time due to injury, and will be less expensive to boot.

 

Literally the only thing that was better about Kiermaier vs Varsho last season was the results with the bat, but dig a little deeper and you see the two players produced nearly identical expected statistics, with Varsho coming in a little higher with a .303 xWOBA vs Kiermaier at .301 xWOBA.

 

Ya you say that but I think KK is still a better defender with a better arm at CF. Just a massive fan of KK tbh.

 

But with the age factor, you obviously stick Varsho in CF and get a masher in LF unless Varsho brings you have a stud that helps you right now (doubt it).

[glory]

It's slim pickings... Current list of free agent LF's.

 

Joc Pederson (32, 2.7)

Tommy Pham (36, 2.5)

David Peralta (36, 1.8)

Michael Brantley (37, 1.4)

Joey Gallo (30, 1.4)

Travis Jankowski (33, 1.0)

Jurickson Profar (31, 0.6)

Jordan Luplow (30, 0.5)

Eddie Rosario (32, 0.2)

Robbie Grossman (34, 0.1)

Corey Dickerson (35, -0.2)

Ben Gamel (32, -0.2)

AJ Pollock (36, -0.4)

Austin Meadows (30, -0.5)

 

Yeah I’m legit drawing a blank as far as how the Jays are going to fill LF and 3B (if not Chapman). With DH it seems like they have a pretty good list of names who could provide value (JDM, Garver, Brantley, Hoskins, Turner, etc). With LF/3B, the options are much more scarce.

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah I want Larnach. Really high k rate but when he squares it up it makes a Kyle Schwarber sound lollll

[Rusty_Savage]

Yeah I want Larnach. Really high k rate but when he squares it up it makes a Kyle Schwarber sound lollll

You want every below average player available on this team. Why?

 

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[wilko]

Yeah I’m legit drawing a blank as far as how the Jays are going to fill LF and 3B (if not Chapman). With DH it seems like they have a pretty good list of names who could provide value (JDM, Garver, Brantley, Hoskins, Turner, etc). With LF/3B, the options are much more scarce.

 

Not much there unless they go the trade route... The only guys worth it could be Pederson, Pham? Profar? Rosario.

[BTS]

Not much there unless they go the trade route... The only guys worth it could be Pederson, Pham? Profar? Rosario.

 

Teo, Duvall, Meadows, Soler also interesting to varying degrees.

[Laika]

Yeah I’m legit drawing a blank as far as how the Jays are going to fill LF and 3B (if not Chapman). With DH it seems like they have a pretty good list of names who could provide value (JDM, Garver, Brantley, Hoskins, Turner, etc). With LF/3B, the options are much more scarce.

 

3B being manned by the internal options is a viable outcome

 

But the team would need to be bringing in a serious LF and DH to stomach that risk

[G-Snarls]

3B being manned by the internal options is a viable outcome

 

But the team would need to be bringing in a serious LF and DH to stomach that risk

 

100% right

[max silver]

Yeah I’m legit drawing a blank as far as how the Jays are going to fill LF and 3B (if not Chapman). With DH it seems like they have a pretty good list of names who could provide value (JDM, Garver, Brantley, Hoskins, Turner, etc). With LF/3B, the options are much more scarce.

 

I think Teoscar is a decent left field option as his metrics for his last few seasons out there looked good in limited playing time. I think if the team brought in someone like Michael A Taylor as a platoon option/defensive replacement type of 4th outfielder the team would be in very good shape defensively in the outfield with Teoscar offering potential upside with the bat if he bounces back.

[Jays24]

3B being manned by the internal options is a viable outcome

 

But the team would need to be bringing in a serious LF and DH to stomach that risk

 

For that reason, I think we'll end up with Chapman, Teo and a good DH. While I'd love Bellinger for his left handed bat and plus defense in the corner OF, 200M for a sporadic player is insane.

[max silver]

Ya you say that but I think KK is still a better defender with a better arm at CF. Just a massive fan of KK tbh.

 

But with the age factor, you obviously stick Varsho in CF and get a masher in LF unless Varsho brings you have a stud that helps you right now (doubt it).

 

Perhaps the eye test tells you Kiermaier is a better defender but the metrics don't back that up. We can compare these players metrics directly to paint a more complete picture. I'm going to utilize Varsho's last two seasons of center field play as he's produced very similar rates in these seasons, and will use Kiermaier's 2023 only as his numbers were most likely negatively affected by a bad hip in 2022.

 

DRS/OAA Overall Comparison

 

Varsho 841 innings 23 DRS (27.3 DRS/1000 innings) 18 OAA (21.4 OAA/1000 innings)

Kiermaier 981 innings 18 DRS (18.3 DRS/1000 innings) 13 OAA (13.3 OAA/1000 innings)

 

Kiermaier has a higher top speed compared to Varsho, but Varsho has simply been a far more effective fielder on a rate basis. It remains to be seen if Varsho can replicate these types of numbers over an entire season in center field as he's yet to play a full season there. If these numbers stick he is arguably the best center field defender in the sport.

 

Kiermaier also possessed a stronger throwing arm, but he hasn't turned this into extra outs compared to Varsho who has a relatively weak throwing arm in comparison. I think Varsho benefits from great technique as he gets into position very quickly, gets rid of the ball quickly (likely his years at catcher benefit him here) and he has a very accurate arm as well. It stands to reason that runners would be more likely to attempt to advance on the bases as well, giving him more opportunities to throw out runners compared to Kiermaier.

 

I have also included the DRS throwing component over the same timeframe. Statcast also has this type of statistic, but I did not include it as it does not break down the outs saved per position played so it's not an apples to apples comparison as Varsho split his time between left field and center field.

 

DRS Throwing Runs Saved

 

Varsho 4 DRS (4.8 DRS/1000 innings)

Kiermaier 2 DRS (2.03 DRS/1000 innings)