General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[wamco]

Kikuchi and Kepler both have identical contract remaining and same exact value on mlbtv Fangraphs projects .2 difference in WAR next year.

 

Twins lost gray and maeda and Kepler has been rumored to be on the block forever

[Olerud363]

Orelvis is not ready for the bigs. A summer promotion at the absolute earliest

 

Orelvis might not take as much of a hit off his minor league numbers as others. He's a .240 minor league hitter who has put some stinkers like barely hitting .200 for a few months. So at first you would think he would get destroyed in the majors.

 

However his problem is pop-ups. Like his k-rate isn't that bad. Joey Gallo for example had a way worse k-rate. Some guys hit just as well in the majors as minors and Orelvis might be that guy.

 

1. Vlad Guerrero 110 mph ground balls eat up minor league infields but he loses a lot of batting average when going to the majors because major league defenses handle his grounders better.

2. Orelvis Martinez popups aren't going to be hits in the minors or majors so he may not have as much a discount when reaching the majors because of defense.

3. His k-rate isn't that bad. Like way better than Joey Gallo's was in the minors.

4. His minor league numbers might be just randomly fluky on the low side.

 

Orelvis may be a .240 .320 .500 minor league and major league hitter and maybe he is ready.

[BTS]

Kikuchi and Kepler both have identical contract remaining and same exact value on mlbtv Fangraphs projects .2 difference in WAR next year.

 

Twins lost gray and maeda and Kepler has been rumored to be on the block forever

 

We're pretty much perfect trade partners.

 

Polanco is a 2-3 win 3B, but is a 10.5M bench player on the Twins because they have Correa, Lewis, and Julien.

Kepler is a 2-3 win LW, but they seem to want to trade his 10M salary and run with Wallner, Buxton, and Castro in the OF.

 

The Twins only have 3 reliable SPs. We have Kikuchi, and the financial resources to backfill Kikuchi's spot.

[glory]

In hindsight, trading junk for Eugenio Suarez would have been the smart move, but understandable that they didn’t want to do it when they thought they had a chance with Ohtani.

[Laika]

jasblue is 100% correct. Kikuchi is expendable to a team with money to spend. And might have value to a team without money to spend. He’s an SP 4/5 making 12M, and a lot of you seem pretty unprepared for the not that unlikely outcome where he walks like 5/9 and puts up a 0.5 win season.

 

There will definitely be teams that miss out on most of the palatable depth SP and are left looking at guys like Syndergaard and Zach Davies.

 

Those teams might STRONGLY prefer to pay Kikuchi $12M. A 2.2 WAR projection is a 2.2 WAR projection. About the same as Seth Lugo, who just got 3/$45 and Kenta Maeda, who got 2/$24. Better projection than Wacha and Nick Martinez who both for 2 year deals.

 

So which team would not be a great pitch in free agency but has a LF or 3B worth like... $8M to $10M?

[Laika]

If the Giants sign Matt Chapman, JD Davis is expendable for them. He's a value match for Kikuchi. Will also make $5 to $6M less.

[Brownie19]

We're pretty much perfect trade partners.

 

Polanco is a 2-3 win 3B, but is a 10.5M bench player on the Twins because they have Correa, Lewis, and Julien.

Kepler is a 2-3 win LW, but they seem to want to trade his 10M salary and run with Wallner, Buxton, and Castro in the OF.

 

The Twins only have 3 reliable SPs. We have Kikuchi, and the financial resources to backfill Kikuchi's spot.

 

Polanco and Kepler for Kikucci, Pearson, Prospect

Sign Stro (3 years $60M), Soler (2 years $36M) and Duvall (1 year, $8M)

[The Cats Ass]

In hindsight, trading junk for Eugenio Suarez would have been the smart move, but understandable that they didn’t want to do it when they thought they had a chance with Ohtani.

 

Would have probably had to move someone like Zulueta. The projections on Suarez aren't all that good. He has 1 year hitting above average in his past 4. I don't trust his fielding run value from 2023 to carry forward. We're better rolling with Biggio/Orelvis/Schneider/Barger at 3B over someone like Suarez.

 

I think it might be Barger. He had elbow issues last year which can explain his dip in power. While at AAA he was able to lower his K rate and raise his BB rate. He was top 40 on fangraphs prospect list at one point. I'd be completely okay with going into spring training with the plan of having a Barger/Orelvis competition for 3B.

[wamco]

Polanco and Kepler for Kikucci, Pearson, Prospect

Sign Stro (3 years $60M), Soler (2 years $36M) and Duvall (1 year, $8M)

 

I’m on board.

Would stro be the best thing possible for manoah or the worst? Or both?

[Brownie19]

I’m on board.

Would stro be the best thing possible for manoah or the worst? Or both?

 

That's a good question. To be honest, he was just kind of the best SP left who wasn't going to command a 5-6 year deal in the $100M+ range. I mean we could go after Montgomery or Snell I guess - I'm just not convinced that any of the remaining FA's are worth that type of $$ or years of commitment. If you trade Kikucci, I think you do need someone reliable, simply because we don't really know what we have in Manoah.

[Olerud363]

I think it might be Barger. He had elbow issues last year which can explain his dip in power. While at AAA he was able to lower his K rate and raise his BB rate. He was top 40 on fangraphs prospect list at one point. I'd be completely okay with going into spring training with the plan of having a Barger/Orelvis competition for 3B.

 

meanWAR(Orelvis, Barger, Howritz, Scheider, Roden, Palmegiani, Jiminez) doesn't matter

 

What matters is

 

TwolargestWAR(Orelvis, Barger, Howritz, Scheider, Roden, Palmegiani, Jiminez)

[Sorrow]

Isn’t Kikuchi being paid 10m for 2024? It was 14/12/10 as a breakdown I thought.

[RustyTrombone]

Stroman is never going to be a bluejay again. Do you guys not remember that he s*** on Atkins/Shapiro and the FO publicly?

 

Kepler for Kikuchi + low level prospect makes too much sense.

 

Im somehow warming up to the idea of signing Chapman. Maybe 5yr 125M

 

Rather have JDM than Soler considering Soler probably wants like 4 or 5 yrs.

[wamco]

Isn’t Kikuchi being paid 10m for 2024? It was 14/12/10 as a breakdown I thought.

 

16 10 10

[Jonn]

Stroman is never going to be a bluejay again. Do you guys not remember that he s*** on Atkins/Shapiro and the FO publicly?

 

Kepler for Kikuchi + low level prospect makes too much sense.

 

Im somehow warming up to the idea of signing Chapman. Maybe 5yr 125M

 

Rather have JDM than Soler considering Soler probably wants like 4 or 5 yrs.

 

If they give Chapman $125 I’m going to be anemic after I finish vomiting.

 

Absolute max should be 4 years, 80M. Walk if it gets past that.

[RustyTrombone]

Unfortunately thats probably what it takes. Considering we already offered him over 100M and he declined back when the qualifying offers were submitted. Boras client too.

 

I think Chapman is approach change away from being the 30hr hitter hes been in the past. He (along with most of the team) needs to get back to pulling the ball. Too much of those pushy swings trying to shoot line drives to RF.

[Jimcanuck]

He (along with most of the team) needs to get back to pulling the ball. Too much of those pushy swings trying to shoot line drives to RF.

 

Coach.

[BTS]

Coach.

 

I feel like this forum way overstates the impact that a hitting coach has on mid-prime big-leaguers. Matt Chapman is a 30-year old man with a ton of big league success. He's not out there trying to shoot flares into RF because Don Mattingly is in his hear. Outside of 2022 and the short 2020, his pull rate his been in a 2% range four of the last 6 years.

[glory]

Would have probably had to move someone like Zulueta. The projections on Suarez aren't all that good. He has 1 year hitting above average in his past 4. I don't trust his fielding run value from 2023 to carry forward. We're better rolling with Biggio/Orelvis/Schneider/Barger at 3B over someone like Suarez.

 

I think it might be Barger. He had elbow issues last year which can explain his dip in power. While at AAA he was able to lower his K rate and raise his BB rate. He was top 40 on fangraphs prospect list at one point. I'd be completely okay with going into spring training with the plan of having a Barger/Orelvis competition for 3B.

 

My preference would be the Jays go internal for 3B as well, especially with how bad the market is, but I just don’t see them doing it. None of Barger, Orelvis, and Damiano have a MLB plate appearance and those three are likely the most realistic 3B options internally. It’s also likely that the Jays don’t view Orelvis and Barger as 3B anymore so that complicates the issue. Biggio at 3B short term is likely the move to make as long as he can handle the position but not sure they do that in a season they want to contend with a possibly shortening window.

 

Chapman on a Springer contract would be awful but I just don’t see the realistic alternative. The Giants signing Chapman and then trading JD Davis would probably be a good outcome for the Jays so we could hope for that.

[The Cats Ass]

meanWAR(Orelvis, Barger, Howritz, Scheider, Roden, Palmegiani, Jiminez) doesn't matter

 

What matters is

 

TwolargestWAR(Orelvis, Barger, Howritz, Scheider, Roden, Palmegiani, Jiminez)

 

Some people don't get that. We have a lot of quality darts to throw at the board. No need to block them with someone like Suarez.

[Brownie19]

My preference would be the Jays go internal for 3B as well, especially with how bad the market is, but I just don’t see them doing it. None of Barger, Orelvis, and Damiano have a MLB plate appearance and those three are likely the most realistic 3B options internally. It’s also likely that the Jays don’t view Orelvis and Barger as 3B anymore so that complicates the issue. Biggio at 3B short term is likely the move to make as long as he can handle the position but not sure they do that in a season they want to contend with a possibly shortening window.

 

Chapman on a Springer contract would be awful but I just don’t see the realistic alternative. The Giants signing Chapman and then trading JD Davis would probably be a good outcome for the Jays so we could hope for that.

 

I don't think the Jays view any of those players as real 3rd base options. They'd be better to trade for JD Davis or Polanco and try internal options for 2nd (Biggio, Schneider, Barger, Orelvis, etc.). Barger could also be an internal option in LF I believe.

[Frenchsoup]

Glory you want to go internal at 3b? Who you giving reps to then?

[Carlos Danger]

I haven't had a chance to write this out with work and concentrating on Ohtani etc. However, Whit Merrifield was on MLB a few weeks ago.

 

To summarize: Whit was asked what is the part of the game he takes pride in the most or that is most important to him that he is recognized for. SBs, his high average back when he hit .300 etc, etc. Whit replied that the part of his game that is most important to him is hitting with RISP or a man on 3rd less than 2 out etc.

 

This is when he threw some shade at the Blue Jays IMO and kind of gave me some insight into the hitting coaches, info that is shared etc. All the things we heard tidbits of during the season.

 

Whit stated that when he is at the plate with a runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, he is looking to take whichever pitch he gets and hit it somewhere to get the run in. Basically, that he has been good at adapting and making hard contact with the ball. Obviously in situation with RISP the pitcher will always pitch you tougher.

 

Whit's approach was in conflict with the team approach which was to wait your pitch, if you don't get your pitch and you can walk, then move it down the line for the next guy to bring the runner/s in.

 

However, guys were not getting their pitch and they weren't able to take a walk and they were stranding too many RISP.

 

Whit's insight definitely tracks with what I believe I saw last season with the Blue Jays in many cases. It also goes to a "Team approach or mindset".

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah Whits a great guy and fits on any club

[Krylian]

It's sad that this market needs to look for value contracts. Wish we could swing our cocks around like the big boys and not worry so much about overspending cause in 5 years a contract might not look good. I remember fondly when the Jays won the World Series and were the highest spenders in baseball. Good times.

[Carlos Danger]

It's sad that this market needs to look for value contracts. Wish we could swing our cocks around like the big boys and not worry so much about overspending cause in 5 years a contract might not look good. I remember fondly when the Jays won the World Series and were the highest spenders in baseball. Good times.

 

That has always been my philosophy. Walk softly and carry a big cock.

[BTS]

It's sad that this market needs to look for value contracts. Wish we could swing our cocks around like the big boys and not worry so much about overspending cause in 5 years a contract might not look good. I remember fondly when the Jays won the World Series and were the highest spenders in baseball. Good times.

 

Not really sure they're looking for value contracts. They were in on Ohtani. They're in on Yamamoto and Bellinger.

[max silver]

I haven't had a chance to write this out with work and concentrating on Ohtani etc. However, Whit Merrifield was on MLB a few weeks ago.

 

To summarize: Whit was asked what is the part of the game he takes pride in the most or that is most important to him that he is recognized for. SBs, his high average back when he hit .300 etc, etc. Whit replied that the part of his game that is most important to him is hitting with RISP or a man on 3rd less than 2 out etc.

 

This is when he threw some shade at the Blue Jays IMO and kind of gave me some insight into the hitting coaches, info that is shared etc. All the things we heard tidbits of during the season.

 

Whit stated that when he is at the plate with a runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, he is looking to take whichever pitch he gets and hit it somewhere to get the run in. Basically, that he has been good at adapting and making hard contact with the ball. Obviously in situation with RISP the pitcher will always pitch you tougher.

 

Whit's approach was in conflict with the team approach which was to wait your pitch, if you don't get your pitch and you can walk, then move it down the line for the next guy to bring the runner/s in.

 

However, guys were not getting their pitch and they weren't able to take a walk and they were stranding too many RISP.

 

Whit's insight definitely tracks with what I believe I saw last season with the Blue Jays in many cases. It also goes to a "Team approach or mindset".

 

So Whit's approach seemed to be expanding the strike zone and hacking away while hoping the contact scored the runner while potentially producing an out (maybe even greatly increasing the likelihood of this happening). The team's approach was to wait for a pitch you can hit hard, and if you didn't receive it take your walk passing the baton to the next guy up. Are you siding with Whit here? It seems to me that the approach the team was prescribing would lead to far more opportunities to plate runs vs what Whit wanted to do.

[max silver]

Not really sure they're looking for value contracts. They were in on Ohtani. They're in on Yamamoto and Bellinger.

 

I think the value contracts are going to come about if the team misses out on their primary targets.

[Stangstag]

I haven't had a chance to write this out with work and concentrating on Ohtani etc. However, Whit Merrifield was on MLB a few weeks ago.

 

To summarize: Whit was asked what is the part of the game he takes pride in the most or that is most important to him that he is recognized for. SBs, his high average back when he hit .300 etc, etc. Whit replied that the part of his game that is most important to him is hitting with RISP or a man on 3rd less than 2 out etc.

 

This is when he threw some shade at the Blue Jays IMO and kind of gave me some insight into the hitting coaches, info that is shared etc. All the things we heard tidbits of during the season.

 

Whit stated that when he is at the plate with a runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, he is looking to take whichever pitch he gets and hit it somewhere to get the run in. Basically, that he has been good at adapting and making hard contact with the ball. Obviously in situation with RISP the pitcher will always pitch you tougher.

 

Whit's approach was in conflict with the team approach which was to wait your pitch, if you don't get your pitch and you can walk, then move it down the line for the next guy to bring the runner/s in.

However, guys were not getting their pitch and they weren't able to take a walk and they were stranding too many RISP.

 

Whit's insight definitely tracks with what I believe I saw last season with the Blue Jays in many cases. It also goes to a "Team approach or mindset".

 

Well... that's not a bad approach really. Still feel like the main issue was too many flyballs to CF. And when there was a runner on 3rd, you could almost guarantee a strikeout was coming next. I don't feel like that hitting approach that Whit is describing tracks with the struggles our offense had.