General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Spanky99]

Blue Jays first in team ERA in the MLB... 4th overall in fWAR. 7th offensively.

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah his entire statcast page isn't drenched in blue anymore. And you guys are getting better at reading the color coded statcast page, I'll give you that. If anything comes from this bit I've been running for over a year now I'll at least have taught you all something.

 

But speaking of expected stats, his xwOBA is .338 which is in the 65th percentile. It's above average but not necessarily "objectively awesome" as it's a far cry from his 96th percentile wOBA.

 

I still maintain that if he signed here with our luck, he'd be underperforming his xwOBA by 60 points instead of overperforming it by that amount.

 

Just take the L

[BigCecil]

LMAO I'm not mad. I want Varsho to succeed and be a 5 WAR player here. But you live in your own little fantasy world, we can forget how awful Varsho has been this season for the first 4 months vs. 1 week of hitting .316 lol.

 

Don't use it much but just that Meta4 on my IL. A too far gone Ross Fapper, s***** troll and blathering El Homer Del Homers - inferring a week sample size means anything definitive. Dumb. As if we don't all want Varsho to be the 5 ish WAR player we bought. It would be awesome. Flying from CAL to TOR today with my son and brother to catch 3 games and I hope Varsho hits 5 bombs and makes a bunch of plays.

[BigCecil]

Blue Jays first in team ERA in the MLB... 4th overall in fWAR. 7th offensively.

 

Got to tip your cap to the FO & players on the pitching and D. They nailed that this year, including an improved pen. If more of our guys were hitting to their projections we would be topping the Division most likely. At least right there.

 

Lets hope we get on a roll like the M's are now. 9-1 in last 10 is nuts.

[Stangstag]

Got to tip your cap to the FO & players on the pitching and D. They nailed that this year, including an improved pen. If more of our guys were hitting to their projections we would be topping the Division most likely. At least right there.

 

Lets hope we get on a roll like the M's are now. 9-1 in last 10 is nuts.

 

That’s just it, if the guys were hitting like their projections or at least CLOSE to them, we’d probably be 1st place. Vlad, Varsho and Kirk have been a MASSIVE disappointment. Like massive massive. Way below projections. Springer hasn’t been good either but he’s showing signs of life now.

 

Always a handful of underachievers on the Jays it seems like

[Brownie19]

How crazy is it that Vlad is currently 11th on the team (offensively) in WAR, behind Davis Schneider & Varsho. Davis Schneider has played 5 games.

[Stangstag]

How crazy is it that Vlad is currently 11th on the team (offensively) in WAR, behind Davis Schneider & Varsho. Davis Schneider has played 5 games.

 

Massive disappointment. Glad we never extended him. Probably only a Blue Jay for 2 more years.

 

Also wouldn’t be completely shocked to see him turn it around with another team, ala Ozuna. Just to f*** us harder.

 

Incoming LTBF gif

[metafour]

LMAO I'm not mad. I want Varsho to succeed and be a 5 WAR player here. But you live in your own little fantasy world, we can forget how awful Varsho has been this season for the first 4 months vs. 1 week of hitting .316 lol.

 

Haha why don't you grow a brain? Varsho is the Ray Lewis of the best defensive team in baseball. So awful! If only we can be like the .500 D-Backs with Gurriel and his elite offense, we'd be going places!

[Delgalladay]

This is a rough stat if true.

 

[John_Havok]

This is a rough stat if true.

 

 

I mean it sucks as a stat, but it also means the Jays are at the plate with guys on base a lot. I’d much rather have the problem of solving getting runs in when there’s guys on base than trying to solve getting guys on base.

 

If I had to watch a season of Cleveland baseball I’d probably just stop watching the games.

[Stangstag]

This is a rough stat if true.

 

 

Straight 91 down the middle and he gets jammed lol

[BigCecil]

Massive disappointment. Glad we never extended him. Probably only a Blue Jay for 2 more years.

 

Also wouldn’t be completely shocked to see him turn it around with another team, ala Ozuna. Just to f*** us harder.

 

Incoming LTBF gif

 

LOL on LTBF gif!! If he doesnt do it here in the next 2 seasons whoever turns those EV's into actual production again will get a steal with Vlad. Its mind boggling to think some were talking a $400M ish ext in 2021. You simply can't pay a 1B worth 0.4 WAR with a 117 wRC+ big dough on a long term deal - especially with his body type. Nobody should give a F about the stupid "gold glove".

 

Olerud isn't wrong in the sense he is actually a non tender candidate now on some planet. He hasn't been worth the $14.5M he is making. We aren't going to non tender him of course, but not an unfair argument.

[BigCecil]

How crazy is it that Vlad is currently 11th on the team (offensively) in WAR, behind Davis Schneider & Varsho. Davis Schneider has played 5 games.

 

Our core players projections vs actual production are down something like 12 WAR. 12! Chris Black was going through the numbers a couple days ago. Bonkers.

[jaysblue]

How crazy is it that Vlad is currently 11th on the team (offensively) in WAR, behind Davis Schneider & Varsho. Davis Schneider has played 5 games.

 

Vladdy is probably the biggest disappointment overall this season. If he was close to his 2021 level or heck even 2022, Jays are likely in a better position.

 

There isn't much you can do with Vlad now. Have to go year-to-year and hope he has a huge bounceback in 2024 or 2025. Can't sign him to an extension. Trading him doesn't make sense since you would be trading him at his lowest value, unless you get someone with the same amount of upside/years left. Watch him have a huge season in his FA year.

[Laika]

Straight 91 down the middle and he gets jammed lol

 

Vlad is so f***ing broken

 

He has/had all the talent and tools for a Miguel Cabrera career. He just decided to do it on fast forward. He is 34 year old Miggy now.

[jaysblue]

Blue Jays first in team ERA in the MLB... 4th overall in fWAR. 7th offensively.

 

Yup front office definitely did a great job addressing the team defensively. Kudos to Atkins and company.

 

Pitching wise, Berrios and Kikuchi have rebounded nicely, Gausman still a stud, Bassitt has been a solid mid-rotation innings eater. Bullpen has been solid as well, despite some blown games. Still need an elite reliever IMO for the Postseason. Looking like Cabrera could be something special and let's hope Green gets back, along with Romano.

[jaysblue]

That’s just it, if the guys were hitting like their projections or at least CLOSE to them, we’d probably be 1st place. Vlad, Varsho and Kirk have been a MASSIVE disappointment. Like massive massive. Way below projections. Springer hasn’t been good either but he’s showing signs of life now.

 

Always a handful of underachievers on the Jays it seems like

 

Vladdy kind of reminds me of Eric Hinske.

[G-Snarls]

WC race

 

I feel we have a better chance of catching Tampa than Houston now

 

WC3 would still be fine but I don't like having Seattle this close behind

[jaysblue]

WC race

 

I feel we have a better chance of catching Tampa than Houston now

 

WC3 would still be fine but I don't like having Seattle this close behind

 

WC3 I think is the best spot, since the Jays get to face the Twins in the first WC round. Would rather face the Twins or Guardians instead of the Rays/Astros for sure.

 

Mariners starting to heat up now which is worrisome. WC race should go down to the wire. That's why every game counts and even games in May or June where posters were saying "it's still early" could come and bite this team if they miss by a game or two.

[Brownie19]

WC3 I think is the best spot, since the Jays get to face the Twins in the first WC round. Would rather face the Twins or Guardians instead of the Rays/Astros for sure.

 

Mariners starting to heat up now which is worrisome. WC race should go down to the wire. That's why every game counts and even games in May or June where posters were saying "it's still early" could come and bite this team if they miss by a game or two.

 

You do understand this concept correct? It's moronic to make rash decisions in May, based on small samples sizes simply because the team isn't playing great. If you did that, this team would have cut Belt, Garcia, Biggio and Richards, would have pulled Kikuchi from the rotation and bench Danny Jansen I guess?

[Governator]

Manoah vs Syndergarrd

 

If this doesn't get the bats going (arguably for both teams) nothing will.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Everyone loves to point to Vlad’s stat cast page as evidence that he’s just unlucky but I can’t reconcile that. Go take a look at Kendrys Morales’ stat cast pages - they’re soaked in red too and they don’t look at all that different from Vlad’s this year.

 

There’s more to the game than hitting the ball hard.

[jaysblue]

You do understand this concept correct? It's moronic to make rash decisions in May, based on small samples sizes simply because the team isn't playing great. If you did that, this team would have cut Belt, Garcia, Biggio and Richards, would have pulled Kikuchi from the rotation and bench Danny Jansen I guess?

 

Lmao I know I would trigger one of you homers! Nope was referring to more of the games and opportunities they blew. As well, going 0-7 or whatever to start against the Red Sox and their awful start against the Orioles. As well, we can throw a useless Manoah in there.

 

It's nice we aren't hearing the "it's still early" phrase anymore though. Just saying a lot of winnable games this team didn't take advantage of, could hurt them if they miss out by one or two games at the end of the season. Hope we don't have another 2021 on our hands again.

[metafour]

The Jays are definitely the only team in the league that blew winnable games early. Everyone else just plays consistent baseball over 162 games and wins the games they should win.

 

So for example if the Mariners just barely miss the playoffs, it most certainly won't be because of a stretch in the season wherein they lost games they shouldn't have.

[Spanky99]

[JFD]

The Espinal love affair continues

[Delgalladay]

The Espinal love affair continues

 

DeJong can't hit so not sure it matters which one of them plays.

[JFD]

DeJong can't hit so not sure it matters which one of them plays.

 

I'll take a random fan over Espinal at this point

[Brownie19]

Lmao I know I would trigger one of you homers! Nope was referring to more of the games and opportunities they blew. As well, going 0-7 or whatever to start against the Red Sox and their awful start against the Orioles. As well, we can throw a useless Manoah in there.

 

It's nice we aren't hearing the "it's still early" phrase anymore though. Just saying a lot of winnable games this team didn't take advantage of, could hurt them if they miss out by one or two games at the end of the season. Hope we don't have another 2021 on our hands again.

 

Holy f***. So much stupid in here. Metafour hit the nail on the head.

[jaysblue]

The Jays are definitely the only team in the league that blew winnable games early. Everyone else just plays consistent baseball over 162 games and wins the games they should win.

 

So for example if the Mariners just barely miss the playoffs, it most certainly won't be because of a stretch in the season wherein they lost games they shouldn't have.

 

I should have made that statement in my original response because I knew one of you would have responded back with that haha.

 

Yeah obviously even the best teams lose winnable games or series, not just the Blue Jays. They were a frustrating team to watch at times this season given some of the games or series they played. Sure they can't win every game or series. The team definitely could have played better given the talent they have on the roster.

 

Banking wins early though is important to an extent. Look at the Rays for example. They've been awful since the beginning of July yet they are still 69-47 and still only 2.0 GB vs. an extremely hot Orioles team. They're 12-19 since July 1st and that's even with a lot of significant injuries from even before.

 

Jays are 20-13 since July 1st and are still 4.0 GB of Tampa and in the third WC spot. If the Jays were 12-19 instead let's say, they would be 57-57 right now at .500 and out of a WC spot. Just showing you that when you bank wins early, even after how awful Tampa has played, they're still the AL WC leaders and only 2 GB behind the Orioles. A team like the Jays can't afford to go on a cold streak like that at this point in the season or else their Postseason hopes are gone.