General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[BigCecil]

I know casuals don’t like to hear it but the smart move is to unload both Bichette and Vladdy and just hit the reset button. Get what you can for them (especially Vladdy whose value dips every year) over the next two years and move on as an organization. I would be fine with that because I don’t give a s*** what the fan base thinks. Hopefully Shapiro and Atkins think the same.

 

Been saying we need to look at this forever. Depends on the deal (s) obviously but nothing and nobody should be off the table or sacrosanct.

[Eat My Shatkins]

1-14 against the O's and Red Sox with a -47 run differential

 

I just can't even believe it, it's unreal.

 

Two teams in the entire league might just sewer the Jays entire season lol

 

They are 58-35 against the rest of the league!!! ...and +88 run diff!!

 

That's a 101 win pace.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Agreed. 70 iq.

 

Lol Vlad is basically the ooga booga caveman meme. All we hear from him is PLAKATA.

[RustyTrombone]

JFC people....As if Vlad is aiming all his line drives and hard contact at people....Do people realize that Vlad has the BIGGEST negative difference between his WOBA and his xWOBA??? IE. He is literally the most unlucky hitter in the MLB this year???

 

[BlueBaller]

Lol Vlad is basically the ooga booga caveman meme. All we hear from him is PLAKATA.

 

He should get on the caveman diet.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

JFC people....As if Vlad is aiming all his line drives and hard contact at people....Do people realize that Vlad has the BIGGEST negative difference between his WOBA and his xWOBA??? IE. He is literally the most unlucky hitter in the MLB this year???

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2480[/ATTACH]

 

I cannot wait for the article in 5 years from some nerd showing how xWOBA is broken in extreme cases like Vlad.

[BlueBaller]

He always looks different at the plate. Just a little bit off at all times.

[JuniorFelix]

This is pretty great:

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2023/08/blue-jays-fan-times-bathroom-breaks-for-when-team-has-runners-in-scoring-position-to-ensure-he-doesnt-miss-any-action/

[Captain_Obvious]

JFC people....As if Vlad is aiming all his line drives and hard contact at people....Do people realize that Vlad has the BIGGEST negative difference between his WOBA and his xWOBA??? IE. He is literally the most unlucky hitter in the MLB this year???

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2480[/ATTACH]

 

He is just Kendrys Morales

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kendrys-morales/8610/stats?position=1B/DH

[BlueBaller]

This is pretty great:

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2023/08/blue-jays-fan-times-bathroom-breaks-for-when-team-has-runners-in-scoring-position-to-ensure-he-doesnt-miss-any-action/

This sums up the jays inability to handle pressure perfectly. It's anathema to them.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

He is just Kendrys Morales

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kendrys-morales/8610/stats?position=1B/DH

 

From 2015 - 2019 Kendrys Morales had these stats:

 

WOBA xWOBA

.364 .375

.339 .389

.320 .354

.329 .373

.264 .365

 

xWOBA broken for slow fatties confirmed

[Daniel Labude]

JFC people....As if Vlad is aiming all his line drives and hard contact at people....Do people realize that Vlad has the BIGGEST negative difference between his WOBA and his xWOBA??? IE. He is literally the most unlucky hitter in the MLB this year???

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2480[/ATTACH]

 

Casuals only care about hitting the ball over the fence. If ball don't go far they cry

[BigCecil]

I know casuals don’t like to hear it but the smart move is to unload both Bichette and Vladdy and just hit the reset button. Get what you can for them (especially Vladdy who’s value dips every year) over the next two years and move on as an organization. I would be fine with that because I don’t give a s*** what the fan base thinks. Hopefully Shapiro and Atkins think the same.

 

When the team traded McGriff and Fernandez after the 1990 season they were coming off 5.5 and 4.9 WAR seasons respectively. I know Carter was over rated and its not exactly analogous, but its interesting it was productive relatively young SS and 1B they moved. Crime Dog had just finished his 4th season. That and other factors really shook up the team direction. They got Tony back for 93.

 

I think the FO tried in part to do some of the same this past off season moving LGJ and Teo. Going to be really interesting to see how it plays out.

[DonJays]

Yes they have even discussed the philosophical approach at length at different times throughout the season

 

Total BS. I’m sure players in a contract year think they could hit but choose not to because of the hitting coach. What a f***ing joke man.

[DonJays]

I've long felt this. I really hate Vlad. Such a waste of talent so far. It's infuriating.

 

Also despise Vladdy, always have. Incredibly selfish and doesn’t play the game the right way.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

More on the topic of xWOBA under performance, here is a link from the Cardinals perspective on their woes this season:

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/6/18/23763490/some-xwoba-underperformance-goes-beyond-bad-luck

 

Here are some key quotes:

 

1)

 

"Fly balls hit to the middle of the park have a tendency to fare much better in xwOBA than they do in wOBA. Across, the league straightaway fly balls have a .520 xwOBA this year, which is fantastic, but those same fly balls only have a .312 wOBA, which is slightly below the .318 league average wOBA... If a hitter tends to hit a well above league average amount of straightaway fly balls, then he’s likely to underperform his xwOBA by a decent margin. That’s not bad luck. That’s simply sub-optimal batted ball direction."

 

2)

 

"While xwOBA comes in much higher than wOBA on straightaway fly balls, xwOBA drastically undervalues pulled fly balls. The league wOBA on pulled fly balls this year is .866 which is nearly 200 points higher than the league xwOBA on pulled fly balls (.672).

 

The moral of the story here - if a hitter pulls a large chunk of his fly ball and is overperforming his xwOBA, you can’t just chalk it up to good luck."

 

3)

 

"xwOBA is focused on how hard a hitter hits the ball and the angle at which the ball leaves the bat, and while those things are hugely important, speed makes a difference too. Speed can be the difference between an out or a hit on a weakly hit grounder. It can be the difference between a double and a triple on a ball in the gap. It can be the difference between a single and a double on a ball that’s somewhere not quite in the gap but not quite at the fielder either.

 

Players who are slow can often underperform their xwOBA for that very reason and players who are fast can overperform it by stealing hits and extra bases where a slower-footed player wouldn’t.

 

An update to xwOBA made a few years ago added speed as a consideration on balls that are considered topped or weakly hit, and, as a result, speed doesn’t have as strong of a correlation with xwOBA overperformance and underperformance anymore. Still, though, speed is not a consideration on other balls and fast runners can still steal extra bases on balls hit to the outfield.

 

Speed matters when considering wOBA vs. xwOBA performace, just not as much as it used to."

[Omar]

When the team traded McGriff and Fernandez after the 1990 season they were coming off 5.5 and 4.9 WAR seasons respectively. I know Carter was over rated and its not exactly analogous, but its interesting it was productive relatively young SS and 1B they moved. Crime Dog had just finished his 4th season. That and other factors really shook up the team direction. They got Tony back for 93.

 

I think the FO tried in part to do some of the same this past off season moving LGJ and Teo. Going to be really interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Seems we’re on the same page with this. That being said, I don’t dislike Vladdy as a person or a player. I just think the best move for the org is to move on. Some of the anti Vlad comments so far are borderline irrational.

[Brownie19]

Yes they have even discussed the philosophical approach at length at different times throughout the season

 

Do you have a video or summary of this? I don't watch pre or post game stuff because it's f***ing stupid and I don't believe a word they tell reporters.

[Stangstag]

1-14 against the O's and Red Sox with a -47 run differential

 

I just can't even believe it, it's unreal.

 

Two teams in the entire league might just sewer the Jays entire season lol

 

They are 58-35 against the rest of the league!!! ...and +88 run diff!!

 

That's a 101 win pace.

 

Yeah it’s insanity. Like if you ran the projections 100 times you probably come up with the 1-14 result once.

[Brownie19]

Seems we’re on the same page with this. That being said, I don’t dislike Vladdy as a person or a player. I just think the best move for the org is to move on. Some of the anti Vlad comments so far are borderline irrational.

 

The big issue is - what are you going to get for him? As Olerud is going to point out, he's going to be grossly overpaid very soon for a guy coming off a 0.5 WAR season who's obese and one of the worst defenders and base runners in baseball. I worry the Jays hands are tied. You're just hoping he can give you a season somewhat like 2021 to rebuild his trade value so you can get a haul for him. The chances of that happening are probably 'just' good enough that it's worth holding onto him instead of dumping him for a bag of balls.

[Stangstag]

Do you have a video or summary of this? I don't watch pre or post game stuff because it's f***ing stupid and I don't believe a word they tell reporters.

 

Why are you asking for proof if you aren’t going to believe anything they’re saying??

 

Use your head man, the terrible RISP numbers are not just bad luck at this point.

 

And for the record, players HAVE mentioned the “just make contact” thing this season. Can’t recall exactly when but I remember hearing it at least 2 or 3 times from different players

[Stangstag]

More on the topic of xWOBA under performance, here is a link from the Cardinals perspective on their woes this season:

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/6/18/23763490/some-xwoba-underperformance-goes-beyond-bad-luck

 

Here are some key quotes:

 

1)

 

"Fly balls hit to the middle of the park have a tendency to fare much better in xwOBA than they do in wOBA. Across, the league straightaway fly balls have a .520 xwOBA this year, which is fantastic, but those same fly balls only have a .312 wOBA, which is slightly below the .318 league average wOBA... If a hitter tends to hit a well above league average amount of straightaway fly balls, then he’s likely to underperform his xwOBA by a decent margin. That’s not bad luck. That’s simply sub-optimal batted ball direction."

 

2)

 

"While xwOBA comes in much higher than wOBA on straightaway fly balls, xwOBA drastically undervalues pulled fly balls. The league wOBA on pulled fly balls this year is .866 which is nearly 200 points higher than the league xwOBA on pulled fly balls (.672).

 

The moral of the story here - if a hitter pulls a large chunk of his fly ball and is overperforming his xwOBA, you can’t just chalk it up to good luck."

 

3)

 

"xwOBA is focused on how hard a hitter hits the ball and the angle at which the ball leaves the bat, and while those things are hugely important, speed makes a difference too. Speed can be the difference between an out or a hit on a weakly hit grounder. It can be the difference between a double and a triple on a ball in the gap. It can be the difference between a single and a double on a ball that’s somewhere not quite in the gap but not quite at the fielder either.

 

Players who are slow can often underperform their xwOBA for that very reason and players who are fast can overperform it by stealing hits and extra bases where a slower-footed player wouldn’t.

 

An update to xwOBA made a few years ago added speed as a consideration on balls that are considered topped or weakly hit, and, as a result, speed doesn’t have as strong of a correlation with xwOBA overperformance and underperformance anymore. Still, though, speed is not a consideration on other balls and fast runners can still steal extra bases on balls hit to the outfield.

 

Speed matters when considering wOBA vs. xwOBA performace, just not as much as it used to."

 

This is good, thanks

[bluejaysinternNo5]

No problem. I can’t now, but I’m guessing Vlad falls into point number one in which he hits most of his fly balls to center field, which would cause his xWOBA underperformance. Would love if anyone could confirm this.

[Stangstag]

No problem. I can’t now, but I’m guessing Vlad falls into point number one in which he hits most of his fly balls to center field, which would cause his xWOBA underperformance. Would love if anyone could confirm this.

 

Fly Balls

 

2023

Pull - 22.1%

Center - 40.7%

Oppo - 37.2%

 

2021

Pull - 26%

Center - 37.6%

Oppo - 36.5%

 

There is a bit of supporting evidence to your post but its not drastic. Maybe a deeper dive…

[Laika]

No problem. I can’t now, but I’m guessing Vlad falls into point number one in which he hits most of his fly balls to center field, which would cause his xWOBA underperformance. Would love if anyone could confirm this.

 

He DOES fall into that bin

 

But the wrinkle is that he always has to some degree and in prior years he has not been an xwOBA underperformer

 

So... I dunno.

 

Is the new home park killing his CF flyballs?

Is he fatter and slower than ever and that's part of it?

Was he just getting lucky by NOT underperforming his xwOBA in prior years?

 

Should we just stfu and buy Guerrero Jr. jerseys and start cheering for him?

[Brownie19]

Why are you asking for proof if you aren’t going to believe anything they’re saying??

 

Use your head man, the terrible RISP numbers are not just bad luck at this point.

 

And for the record, players HAVE mentioned the “just make contact” thing this season. Can’t recall exactly when but I remember hearing it at least 2 or 3 times from different players

 

I mean if we have an interview with Guillermo or Schneider directly saying "this is our new hitting philosophy that we expect all players to follow" than I would believe that. You'll always have a hard time convincing me that their numbers with RISP are terrible because the hitting coach is telling/forcing them to adapt a new approach that he expects everyone on the team to buy into. Do you think the coach is still telling them the same thing right now and just telling them it's all bad luck - don't change a thing?

 

"just make contact" doesn't seem to show up in the numbers either as our K% is up this year and the highest it's been since 2020. Obviously new players effect this. Is our K% with RISP way down or something? Where are we seeing evidence of a different team philosophy?

[Stangstag]

I mean if we have an interview with Guillermo or Schneider directly saying "this is our new hitting philosophy that we expect all players to follow" than I would believe that. You'll always have a hard time convincing me that their numbers with RISP are terrible because the hitting coach is telling/forcing them to adapt a new approach that he expects everyone on the team to buy into. Do you think the coach is still telling them the same thing right now and just telling them it's all bad luck - don't change a thing?

 

"just make contact" doesn't seem to show up in the numbers either as our K% is up this year and the highest it's been since 2020. Obviously new players effect this. Is our K% with RISP way down or something? Where are we seeing evidence of a different team philosophy?

 

Yes I believe that’s exactly what’s going on right now. They’re waiting for the numbers to turn around “trust the process” without realizing the process may be flawed.

[Daniel Labude]

[DonJays]

Yes I believe that’s exactly what’s going on right now. They’re waiting for the numbers to turn around “trust the process” without realizing the process may be flawed.

 

I never post on here as trolls seem to be taking over but I’m a diehard jays fan and have been observing on this site for many years. This is the stupidest bs I’ve heard on here. This is not a hitting coaches job and the player’s incompetence is the reason the offence is underperforming.

[Stangstag]

I never post on here as trolls seem to be taking over but I’m a diehard jays fan and have been observing on this site for many years. This is the stupidest bs I’ve heard on here. This is not a hitting coaches job and the player’s incompetence is the reason the offence is underperforming.

 

I think it can be a bit of both. Players are failing yes but I believe they’re also getting bad advice