General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Daniel Labude]

Not sure you understand how WAR works. Wins over replacement.

 

When Vlad hit .310 .400 .600 he was much better than replacement so he added about 6 wins to the team as compared to a random guy from triple a.

 

Random first basemen from triple a might hit .250 .310 .420 or something. Like Ryan Noda, but Ryan Noda is doing a bit better than that.

 

If Vlad hits .275 .340 .440 he is much closer to a random guy from triple a thus doesn't accumulate much WAR.

 

.275 .340 .440 is close to .250 .310 .420... .310 .400 .600 is way better than .250 .310 .420.

 

WAR makes perfect sense with some wiggle room for im-perfect defensive metrics.

 

I know exactly how it works and explained where it is flawed multiple times before and specifically what is completely subtracted in 1B value that can't be captured in the metric. I get it, its the best thing currently out there, still flawed and does not work for 1B at all imo. Defensive metrics in general fail to capture 1B value as well

[Daniel Labude]

He has his own theorem, the LtbfWAR

 

Too much work in that regard

[Jays333]

This Vladimir Guerrero Jr. guy is kind of special.........

 

MVP runner up

Lead baseball in HR, in a season

Gold Glove

Most HRs in a HR derby

Most HRs in a HR derby final

Home Run Derby Runner up

Home Run Derby Champion

 

.........and you are telling me he is only 24 years old. Insane crazy

 

If only this would translate to the real games

[Stangstag]

If only this would translate to the real games

 

There’s still time… but now would be nice

[Daniel Labude]

There’s still time… but now would be nice

 

Starts with figuring out how to hit at home, cause those stats are crazy

[Carlos Danger]

Not sure you understand how WAR works. Wins over replacement.

 

When Vlad hit .310 .400 .600 he was much better than replacement so he added about 6 wins to the team as compared to a random guy from triple a.

 

Random first basemen from triple a might hit .250 .310 .420 or something. Like Ryan Noda, but Ryan Noda is doing a bit better than that.

 

If Vlad hits .275 .340 .440 he is much closer to a random guy from triple a thus doesn't accumulate much WAR.

 

.275 .340 .440 is close to .250 .310 .420... .310 .400 .600 is way better than .250 .310 .420.

 

WAR makes perfect sense with some wiggle room for im-perfect defensive metrics.

 

David Ortiz is example A of why WAR can be flawed.

[Spanky99]

David Ortiz is example A of why WAR can be flawed.

 

Do tell, cause I don't follow? All 1B/DH get the same defensive penalty adjusted, how is that flawed?

[connorp]

Do tell, cause I don't follow? All 1B/DH get the same defensive penalty adjusted, how is that flawed?

 

Ah. Spanky having basic reasoning fly over his head again. The argument would be that the defensive penalty itself is flawed. You’ve even been one yourself to question everything defense related, so why talk out of both sides of your mouth. You trying to hob knob one of the people in the circle?

[Olerud363]

I know exactly how it works and explained where it is flawed multiple times before and specifically what is completely subtracted in 1B value that can't be captured in the metric. I get it, its the best thing currently out there, still flawed and does not work for 1B at all imo. Defensive metrics in general fail to capture 1B value as well

 

I agree with you that the defense part is flaky sometimes... it's showing Vlad as very poor, especially this year, so poor it does seem wrong. That being said almost all first basemen, even good ones, should have negative defensive value (just as not as negative as Vlad this year).

 

However the defense isn't the only reason he's near replacement nor the reason most people are disappointed. Hi Offense has fallen a bunch to, to the point he is near 'average' for a first basemen.

[Olerud363]

David Ortiz is example A of why WAR can be flawed.

 

You think David Ortiz was a good defensive player or baserunner? His WAR makes perfect sense. He got 51 WAR career, all positive WAR from offense, and got dinged for defense and baserunning.

 

His 2007-2009 numbers are actually kind of close to what is happening to Vlad now. In 2007 he was one of the best hitters in the league and had 6 WAR, then he got fell apart the next year, then he fell apart even more and was almost replacement, because his hitting fell apart for a year.

 

How do David Ortiz' WAR numbers not make sense?

 

(again I do agree that Vlad's ridiculously bad defensive numbers this year are probably not accurate... but that's not the big problem, big problem, like Ortiz 2007-2009 is the offense has cratered, and WAR has followed as it should).

[Olerud363]

Ah. Spanky having basic reasoning fly over his head again. The argument would be that the defensive penalty itself is flawed. YouÂ’ve even been one yourself to question everything defense related, so why talk out of both sides of your mouth. You trying to hob knob one of the people in the circle?

 

 

It's not flawed so much that 'the flaw' if there is one, is the major reason that 1b/DH WAR is changing year to year.

 

2023 Vlad compared to himself in 2021 or to Freddie Freeman has much lower WAR mostly because his hitting is much closer to replacement, all 1b, Vlad 2021, Vlad 2023, Freeman are getting the same adjustment, so Vlad obviously hasn't lost 85% of his WAR because of the adjustment, he has lost most of the WAR because of bad hitting (relative to his minor league self, his 2021 self, and the elite first basemen), and some WAR because of his defense falling apart (not the adjustment, but the other things are coming in low for some reason).

Edited July 11, 2023 by Olerud363

[Spanky99]

Ah. Spanky having basic reasoning fly over his head again. The argument would be that the defensive penalty itself is flawed. You’ve even been one yourself to question everything defense related, so why talk out of both sides of your mouth. You trying to hob knob one of the people in the circle?

 

How is it flying over my head, meat? What I said is true, regardless of how the industry rates defensive numbers, they still measure up against their peers, moron.

[connorp]

Do tell, cause I don't follow? All 1B/DH get the same defensive penalty adjusted, how is that flawed?

 

So you can compare his WAR easy enough to another 1b. But the problem is, how you compare it to another position. Douchebag

[Olerud363]

So you can compare his WAR easy enough to another 1b. But the problem is, how you compare it to another position. Douchebag

 

If you want to compare him to Marcus Semien or someone sure, but to evaluate his trends you only need to compare him to other first basemen including himself.

 

He went from 6 WAR to 1 WAR pace using the exact same evaluation system. He has fallen below Ryan Noda and other medicore first basemen who are ranked using the same defensive adjustment.

 

So even without comparing him to other positions you can easily see he's having a bad season with respect to other first basemen.

[connorp]

If you want to compare him to Marcus Semien or someone sure, but to evaluate his trends you only need to compare him to other first basemen including himself.

 

He went from 6 WAR to 1 WAR pace using the exact same evaluation system. He has fallen below Ryan Noda and other medicore first basemen who are ranked using the same defensive adjustment.

 

So even without comparing him to other positions you can easily see he's having a bad season with respect to other first basemen.

 

Yes, but I think that the David Ortiz example was given as an example of how 1b get the short end of the stick comparing their value to other guys value around the league (other positions)

 

Your argument is something different

[Spanky99]

So you can compare his WAR easy enough to another 1b. But the problem is, how you compare it to another position. Douchebag

 

Man, you're dense.

[Spanky99]

Yes, but I think that the David Ortiz example was given as an example of how 1b get the short end of the stick comparing their value to other guys value around the league (other positions)

 

Your argument is something different

 

Last month you offered up your non existent knowledge of wRC+, and now it really all makes sense as you don't understand WAR. lol... it's all adjusted meat. Wow.

[Laika]

It's okay to just admit that you don't understand how positional adjustments work.

[Captain_Obvious]

So much dumn here. The whole point of WAR is to compare players value across different positions. Players with more WAR are more valuable.

 

Is WAR perfect? Not really. But it is still very good. Vlad's WAR makes perfect sense given his mediocre offensive production for a 1B and limited range defensively.

[connorp]

Last month you offered up your non existent knowledge of wRC+, and now it really all makes sense as you don't understand WAR. lol... it's all adjusted meat. Wow.

 

Pull up the wRC+ argument and show me where I was wrong. You guys are making the mistake of thinking park factor is determined by all the parks they play in during the year, and not just based on their final runs created and the park they play their home games

[Spanky99]

It's okay to just admit that you don't understand how positional adjustments work.

 

I assume you're talking to connor.

[Spanky99]

So much dumn here. The whole point of WAR is to compare players value across different positions. Players with more WAR are more valuable.

 

Is WAR perfect? Not really. But it is still very good. Vlad's WAR makes perfect sense given his mediocre offensive production for a 1B and limited range defensively.

 

Yeah, it's not perfect but you use it as an approximation, it's pretty simple in that regard, as why mostly everyone uses it as a barometer to their value. connorp's f***ed.

[connorp]

It's okay to just admit that you don't understand how positional adjustments work.

 

Watch some baseball games. Grass roots and up. First base defense is a thing. It’s not baseballs fault the nerds haven’t been able to quantify everything there properly

[connorp]

I assume you're talking to connor.

 

It grinds the guys gears that he’s not the smartest guy in the room when I’m around. He’s always looking to drop me down a peg. Doesn’t change anything though

[Laika]

Watch some baseball games. Grass roots and up. First base defense is a thing. It’s not baseballs fault the nerds haven’t been able to quantify everything there properly

 

Yes, they play defense at first base. It's the easiest position to play. That's why the fattest and slowest kids often go there when they can't catch.

[Stangstag]

It grinds the guys gears that he’s not the smartest guy in the room when I’m around. He’s always looking to drop me down a peg. Doesn’t change anything though

 

Lollll

[Spanky99]

Yes, they play defense at first base. It's the easiest position to play. That's why the fattest and slowest kids often go there when they can't catch.

 

lol

[Daniel Labude]

It's okay to just admit that you don't understand how positional adjustments work.

 

Positional adjustments are insanely stupid and more people will come to this realization in the future

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Positional adjustments are insanely stupid and more people will come to this realization in the future

 

I don’t see how it’s stupid that a player who can play shortstop is more valuable than a brick who stands at first place and catches ball but ok.

[Spanky99]

I don’t see how it’s stupid that a player who can play shortstop is more valuable than a brick who stands at first place and catches ball but ok.

 

Hahaha... he's smarter than the Bill James' and Tom Tango's of the world.