Around Baseball 2023

[Brownie19]

Skenes probably a bad example because of the bad fastball shape

 

But, say guys like Rutschman, Witt Jr.,, Holliday, Gerrit Cole... the guys who are on the map as studs for years and consensus top picks.

 

I wonder what Adley Rutschman would have got coming out of college if he was just a pure free agent. Or what someone of that profile would get right now. $400M+?

 

The thing that is different I guess with Yamamoto is the sample in the NPB gives a really solid basis to his projections. Which say he is a top 20 SP... 3.4 fWAR I think. Not exactly capital "A" ACE projections though.

 

Interesting thought. I agree - the money would be insane.

[Jimcanuck]

stfu jim

 

the Jays sign big free agents all the time now

 

Gausman, Springer, many other lesser examples

 

Cody Belanger is a 2.5 win player asking for the contract that a 5 win player deserves

 

Yes they do, but my comment is directed to those that suggest not pursuing Bellinger because of the price. If that is the criteria, then you aren't going to pay market price for any free agent, whether it be Bellinger this offseason or Soto next. The risk associated with any free agent is baked into the price.

 

These decisions should be based on team need and availability of salary room.

[Stangstag]

If the Jays are not willing to sign Bellinger because of the 8/$200 or whatever cost, you can be damn sure the same will apply next year and Soto's 12/$600 ask. And every other free agent.

 

Jays should become a version of the Rays if this is the case.

 

Would you have signed Bellinger for 8/200 last year?? That’s the difference here. He’s extremely risky and we don’t really know what he is going forward.

 

Soto is the closest thing to a sure bet as a free agent could be.

[Laika]

Yes they do, but my comment is directed to those that suggest not pursuing Bellinger because of the price. If that is the criteria, then you aren't going to pay market price for any free agent. The risk associated with any free agent is baked into the price.

 

These decisions should be based on team need and availability of salary room.

 

We will see but I doubt 8/$200 is actually even the market rate for Bellinger

 

And if some really dumb team gives him that, that is not proof that it was the correct price

 

Honestly, Cody Bellinger, if he is any good, should bet on himself. Take a 1/$30M deal or whatever. If he has another strong year, then teams will back up the truck for him, I guess.

[Brownie19]

Atkins has not drafted/signed and developed a single relief pitcher other than Nate Pearson in years. That, to me, is inexcusable. As a result, they have had to spend resources(money and trade assets) to try to fill those holes that can't be spent elsewhere.

 

I think this is an odd criticism. I don't think any organization puts focus on building their bullpen through the draft. That said, the Jays now seem to have a wave of good bullpen arms that are now ready to help the big league club (Zulueta, Cooke, Danner, Juenger, Burnette, Brock, etc.).

[Jimcanuck]

Would you have signed Bellinger for 8/200 last year?? That’s the difference here. He’s extremely risky and we don’t really know what he is going forward.

 

Soto is the closest thing to a sure bet as a free agent could be.

 

No of course not. And I don't think he gets 8/200 now, either. My point is that those saying no to Bellinger are simply denying the reality of what it takes to compete in MLB.

 

Soto has a bad bod and will be a 1B/DH in a few years, or even 2024, and be Votto for the majority of the contract. His contract will not be without significant risk.

[Jimcanuck]

We will see but I doubt 8/$200 is actually even the market rate for Bellinger

 

And if some really dumb team gives him that, that is not proof that it was the correct price

 

Honestly, Cody Bellinger, if he is any good, should bet on himself. Take a 1/$30M deal or whatever. If he has another strong year, then teams will back up the truck for him, I guess.

 

True, that's why I wrote "8/$200 or whatever cost"

[Brownie19]

Soto is the closest thing to a sure bet as a free agent could be.

 

I remember thinking that about Anthony Rendon. The guy was coming off 5.9, 5.9 and 6.8 seasons with wRC+'s of 141, 140 and 155. Solid defense at 3rd (which isn't super demanding on the body) and no real red flags in his profile (12% BB rate, 13.5% K rate).

[Jimcanuck]

The Angels have been absolutely snakebit with free agents. Pujols, Rendon, Josh Hamilton, etc, etc.

[mphenhef]

I think this is an odd criticism. I don't think any organization puts focus on building their bullpen through the draft. That said, the Jays now seem to have a wave of good bullpen arms that are now ready to help the big league club (Zulueta, Cooke, Danner, Juenger, Burnette, Brock, etc.).

 

No, you don't, but it should come naturally as part of your SP development that you get some relievers. It would be fine to say they have gotten no relievers if their prospects succeeded as starters but that's not the case either. For pitchers, Manoah is all they have to show much of anything and the jury is out on him now too.

[connorp]

Skenes probably a bad example because of the bad fastball shape

 

But, say guys like Rutschman, Witt Jr.,, Holliday, Gerrit Cole... the guys who are on the map as studs for years and consensus top picks.

 

I wonder what Adley Rutschman would have got coming out of college if he was just a pure free agent. Or what someone of that profile would get right now. $400M+?

 

The thing that is different I guess with Yamamoto is the sample in the NPB gives a really solid basis to his projections. Which say he is a top 20 SP... 3.4 fWAR I think. Not exactly capital "A" ACE projections though.

 

The consensus picks you mentioned are mixed in with probably more Vaughn and Torks, than Adley and Witts. Sushi league pitching comps seems to be far superior.

[BTS]

No of course not. And I don't think he gets 8/200 now, either. My point is that those saying no to Bellinger are simply denying the reality of what it takes to compete in MLB.

 

Soto has a bad bod and will be a 1B/DH in a few years, or even 2024, and be Votto for the majority of the contract. His contract will not be without significant risk.

 

I think this is a bit silly. I'm guessing that for every free agent, big or small, there are a number of teams who just aren't interested because their people think that there are better uses of financial resources than what they expect that player to provide. If Toronto management has backed themselves so far into a corner that they believe a single FA is the difference between competing and not competing, they should be fired immediately because a) they don't believe they can find a 3-WAR LF for cheaper than 200M and that's isane, and they're tilty and making moves primarily to save their jobs this year

[connorp]

That’s why the NFL PA had to cave on rookie contracts. All the highest paid QBs coming out of college that sucked

[MikeM3]

I don't understand how Bellinger is being viewed. He just had like a Teoscar or Gallo season, not a 8 war season or something.

 

He was terrible for 3 years prior. To me his true value is 3/75.

 

He's a coin flip to be outperformed by Max Kepler IMO.

 

If Atkins springs for this guy our team is mudded for years

[glory]

If the Jays are not willing to sign Bellinger because of the 8/$200 or whatever cost, you can be damn sure the same will apply next year and Soto's 12/$600 ask. And every other free agent.

 

Jays should become a version of the Rays if this is the case.

 

I'd much rather give Soto 12/600 than Bellinger 8/200, and I would hope Atkins sees it the same way.

[Stangstag]

I don't understand how Bellinger is being viewed. He just had like a Teoscar or Gallo season, not a 8 war season or something.

 

He was terrible for 3 years prior. To me his true value is 3/75.

 

He's a coin flip to be outperformed by Max Kepler IMO.

 

If Atkins springs for this guy our team is mudded for years

 

Former MVP winner. Also plays much better D. Younger. But yeah everyone here pretty much agrees he's not worth more than 150 million.

[Jimcanuck]

I think this is a bit silly. I'm guessing that for every free agent, big or small, there are a number of teams who just aren't interested because their people think that there a better uses of financial resources than what they expect that player to provide. If Toronto management has backed themselves so far into a corner that they believe a single FA is the difference between competing and not competing, they should be fired immediately because a) they don't believe they can find a 3-WAR LF for cheaper than 200M and that's isane, and they're tilty and making moves primarily to save their jobs this year

 

Maybe I'm not making myself clear. I'm mainly responding to Jaysblue. And my comments are general, which is why I reference both Bellinger and Soto. They aren't specific to Bellinger.

 

Did the Dodgers overpay for Yamamoto, given the risks of being a short pitcher and unproven against MLB hitters? Most (all?) would say yes. Unless the Dodgers were stupid and misread the market, this is the cost of high upside potential star players.

 

My overall point is that for the Jays to be competitive, they can (1) build a prospect pipeline and supplement with lower tier / risk / and upside free agents (i.e., the Rays method) , or (2) they can pursue and sign higher tier free agents for $$$$$ as a big market team. If the Jaysblue's of the world aren't willing to take option (2) and pay the cost of higher tier free agents such as Bellinger at 8/$190 or whatever, or Soto at 12/$600, then they should trade Vlad and Bo and start rebuilding the farm.

 

I guess the 3rd alternative is doing neither (1) or (2), and just fielding a mediocre team each year by signing guys like Duvall and whoever to fill holes. I remember the 20 years of mediocrity.

[BTS]

I don't understand how Bellinger is being viewed. He just had like a Teoscar or Gallo season, not a 8 war season or something.

 

He was terrible for 3 years prior. To me his true value is 3/75.

 

He's a coin flip to be outperformed by Max Kepler IMO.

 

If Atkins springs for this guy our team is mudded for years

 

I don't understand it either. He had to outperform his xwOBA by 40 points to get to a 4-WAR, and Steamer projects him at 2.5 WAR. Basically the same projection as Kepler, who's a 10M commitment and who the Twins have seemingly been trying to trade for a year now

[BTS]

Maybe I'm not making myself clear. I'm mainly responding to Jaysblue. And my comments are general, which is why I reference both Bellinger and Soto. They aren't specific to Bellinger.

 

Did the Dodgers overpay for Yamamoto, given the risks of being a short pitcher and unproven against MLB hitters? Most (all?) would say yes. Unless the Dodgers were stupid and misread the market, this is the cost of high upside potential star players.

 

My overall point is that for the Jays to be competitive, they can (1) build a prospect pipeling and supplement with lower tier / risk / and upside free agents (i.e., th , or (2) they can pursue and sign higher tier free agents for $$$$$ as a big market team. If the Jaysblue's of the world aren't willing to take option (2) and pay the cost of higher tier free agents such as Bellinger at 8/$190 or whatever, or Soto at 12/$600, then they should trade Vlad and Bo and start rebuilding the farm.

 

I guess the 3rd alternative is doing neither (1) or (2), and just fielding a mediocre team each year by signing guys like Duvall and whoever to fill holes.

 

Ah, I mostly agree. The team is in a tough place because the development hasn't been good enough. Even a rebuild would probably lead them right back here 4-5 years from now unless they get a lot better at creating good MLB player from nothing

[wilko]

I hope the Dodgers don't make the playoffs this upcoming season. They Jays can win 60 games and I'd still be happy if the Dodgers didn't get in.

[L54]

Maybe I'm not making myself clear. I'm mainly responding to Jaysblue. And my comments are general, which is why I reference both Bellinger and Soto. They aren't specific to Bellinger.

 

Did the Dodgers overpay for Yamamoto, given the risks of being a short pitcher and unproven against MLB hitters? Most (all?) would say yes. Unless the Dodgers were stupid and misread the market, this is the cost of high upside potential star players.

 

My overall point is that for the Jays to be competitive, they can (1) build a prospect pipeline and supplement with lower tier / risk / and upside free agents (i.e., the Rays method) , or (2) they can pursue and sign higher tier free agents for $$$$$ as a big market team. If the Jaysblue's of the world aren't willing to take option (2) and pay the cost of higher tier free agents such as Bellinger at 8/$190 or whatever, or Soto at 12/$600, then they should trade Vlad and Bo and start rebuilding the farm.

 

I guess the 3rd alternative is doing neither (1) or (2), and just fielding a mediocre team each year by signing guys like Duvall and whoever to fill holes. I remember the 20 years of mediocrity.

 

Did JB not say to sit out on high priced free agents this year so they’re able to pursue next years free agents?

[L54]

Jim has always had a Belli Boner

[Laika]

Yeah

 

It's really just THIS YEAR that everybody looks like a landmine

 

Typically there are a few more good looking options at the top

 

By all means, Toronto should be offering the next Corey Seager or Freddie Freeman in free agency the most money

 

I mean they literally just went balls to the wall for Ohtani and almost pulled it off, haha

[L54]

Nobody wants to operate like the Rays but there’s only so many 30M AAV contracts to be handed out over the course of a decade. Bellinger today isn’t one of the players I’d do it with

[Laika]

Just bring Chappy home for 4/$80

 

Sign Joc Pederson

Sign Joey Gallo and Tommy Pham

 

Slap John Schneider

Scold Vlad

Tell Kirk you want to see 20 homers

 

win the world series

 

sweetheart extension for Danny Boy

blank cheque for Soto

[L54]

But I do agree with what Jim’s rebuttal will be that Torinoto can’t really afford to punt 2024

[Jimcanuck]

Did JB not say to sit out on high priced free agents this year so they’re able to pursue next years free agents?

 

And why would the market price for free agents next year be any lower (likely higher) than this year? In addition, Soto, Bregman, Wheeler, etc might not even be free agents.

 

Or, after the market sets the prices next year, will JB again suggest sitting out and pursuing the 2026 free agents?

[Brownie19]

Nobody wants to operate like the Rays but there’s only so many 30M AAV contracts to be handed out over the course of a decade. Bellinger today isn’t one of the players I’d do it with

 

I agree. If you're going to blow a wad of your budget on a player, you better "hit" or it will have a huge impact on your success. The issue for the Jays is they are in a "win now" position and are in need of an impact player for 2024....except there really isn't that clear cut star that's worth the $150-$300M deal to now that Ohtani has signed. It puts the Jays is a very difficult position. There is a chance that Belly IS that player we need and could be a 4-5 WAR player for the next 4-5 years. But there's also a risk that he's a 2 WAR player. That risk is higher than most players who are going to get $150-$200M.

 

If Betts or Freeman turned into Anthony Rendon, there's a good chance the Dodgers become the Angels. There's always risk and luck involved in these deals, which are often outside of everyone's control.

[BTS]

If Toronto waits a year:

 

Soto

Bregman

Alonso

Burnes

Fried

Buehler

Wheeler

Altuve

 

Are all available. And second tier guys like Goldschmidt, Walker, Torres, Adames, Santander, and Bieber. Plus probably a handful of good international guys. And maybe a big-salary star or two via trade.

 

It's completely valid to plug in 1-year guys and see what their money buys with a deeper FA pool a year from now. Unless Atkins is making moves to save his job in the immediate term, and not to set the Blue Jays up the best he can in the medium-long term.

[BTS]

But I do agree with what Jim’s rebuttal will be that Torinoto can’t really afford to punt 2024

 

I think Toronto can afford to get the best 1-year guys in 2024 instead of maximizing their 2024 wins at all cost to the future. Maybe Atkins can't though.