Around Baseball 2023

[jaysblue]

Defeatist attitude. Get into the postseason, then anything can happen. Good chance Glasnow, Kershaw, and 1 other Dodgers SP are on the IL come next October.

 

The Jays would have to spend over $300M combined on Belly and Chapman, which won't move the needle much and likely prevent them from signing anyone else next off-season or after. They have to replace Bo and Vladdy as well after 2025.

[Jimcanuck]

The Jays would have to spend over $300M combined on Belly and Chapman, which won't move the needle much and likely prevent them from signing anyone else next off-season or after. They have to replace Bo and Vladdy as well after 2025.

 

No they don't. And I disagree with your suggestion to punt 2024.

[jaysblue]

Dodgers sign Ohtani and Yamamoto: "Salary Cap needed!"

 

If the Blue Jays signed Ohtani and Yamamoto: *crickets*

[jaysblue]

No they don't. And I disagree with your suggestion to punt 2024.

 

Where did I say punt 2024? The Jays could still build a very competitive roster without having to spend over $300M combined on both Belly and Chapman.

[jaysblue]

Well give the Yankees some time - they already traded for VASTLY better hitter than any Blue Jay. They can easily sign the best three pitchers on the free agent market to put their rotation above ours.

 

The game is played on the field but the prize is the World Series, not a wild card - and we're a much worse team right now than we were when the season ended. We have a bottom 5 farm system and there are no free agents that are exactly thrilling or "put you over the top" types. I guess I can't see what the Jays could do here to dramatically make us a 95-100 win team.

 

Facts.

 

Nobody really in the farm system who could be used as assets to make a big trade, other than Tiedemann but he alone isn't enough. The remaining players in this free agent class aren't going to move the needle a whole lot, even if you spend $300M on Belly + Chapman.

 

If the Jays want to be a 95-100 win team, it will all come down to what Vladdy the Jays get in 2024, and hoping for bounce backs from some key guys like Kirk, Varsho, Manoah and Springer. They could add some wins but they don't have to spend over $300M and tie themselves up financially long term to do so.

[thatoneguy]

Dodgers sign Ohtani and Yamamoto: "Salary Cap needed!"

 

If the Blue Jays signed Ohtani and Yamamoto: *crickets*

 

Nah, it would still be stupid with all of the salary deferral. That really should not be a thing.

[Show Hey]

Dodgers sign Ohtani and Yamamoto: "Salary Cap needed!"

 

If the Blue Jays signed Ohtani and Yamamoto: *crickets*

 

The bias that sways the opinion of any one fanbase doesn't change what is obviously necessary if MLB has any interest in making baseball engaging for people outside of large markets.

[Jimcanuck]

Where did I say punt 2024? The Jays could still build a very competitive roster without having to spend over $300M combined on both Belly and Chapman.

 

Yup the problem like you says it ties up that money from being able to sign or trade for someone else down the road, next offseason or the offseason after etc.

 

Jays don't need to sign both Belly and Chapman to be competitive.

[Jimcanuck]

Facts.

 

Nobody really in the farm system who could be used as assets to make a big trade, other than Tiedemann but he alone isn't enough. The remaining players in this free agent class aren't going to move the needle a whole lot, even if you spend $300M on Belly + Chapman.

 

If the Jays want to be a 95-100 win team, it will all come down to what Vladdy the Jays get in 2024, and hoping for bounce backs from some key guys like Kirk, Varsho, Manoah and Springer. They could add some wins but they don't have to spend over $300M and tie themselves up financially long term to do so.

 

So who plays LF, 3B in 2024?

[G-Snarls]

How many Dodgers hats and jerseys will be sold in Japan this year???

[jaysblue]

So who plays LF, 3B in 2024?

 

You're making it seem like LF will be a tough position to fill in 2024, when in reality it won't be. Depends on who the Jays want and how much they're willing to spend. You can target someone like Teo (not sure exactly if he gets a 1 year deal or a 3-4 year deal), or go after one of the stopgap solutions mentioned previously in these threads.

 

3B is really the dark hole heading in 2024. Trade market is likely the best route whether it's Adames or Polanco or maybe an infielder from Cincy or if JD Davis becomes available from the Giants.

[jaysblue]

Jays don't need to sign both Belly and Chapman to be competitive.

 

Exactly.

 

Atkins and this FO have done a superb job at adding WAR to their rosters with stopgap solutions in the past and just recently last offseason, and I think they could do it again. They likely could sign Hoskins or JDM or Turner as a DH to a one-year contract, and like we've discussed there are still plenty of options for LF as well. They don't need to spend $200M+ on Belly.

 

3B is really the dark hole. The hope is they could bring someone in who could provide 2-3 WAR. You'll have to make up the extra WAR that Chapman would provide somewhere else on the roster.

[Jimcanuck]

Exactly.

 

Atkins and this FO have done a superb job at adding WAR to their rosters with stopgap solutions in the past and just recently last offseason, and I think they could do it again. They likely could sign Hoskins or JDM or Turner as a DH to a one-year contract, and like we've discussed there are still plenty of options for LF as well. They don't need to spend $200M+ on Belly.

 

3B is really the dark hole. The hope is they could bring someone in who could provide 2-3 WAR. You'll have to make up the extra WAR that Chapman would provide somewhere else on the roster.

 

As I posted earlier, (1) signing Belly and (2) signing Teo or trade for Eloy to be a DH only, would put this team in a good position for possibly the last 2 years of Vlad and Bo.

[DonJays]

As I posted earlier, (1) signing Belly and (2) signing Teo or trade for Eloy to be a DH only, would put this team in a good position for possibly the last 2 years of Vlad and Bo.

 

Agreed, but it really does appear to be a 2 year window until they need to rebuild. This core ain’t it the farm is pedestrian. Hopefully they can steal a young player with control that breaks out because this core is fairly old and has limited control

[Key22]

The problem with Bellinger is that he wants at least 7 years so signing him for the 2 years Bo and Vlad are here means you could be stuck with an albatross for 5+ years. And if 2023 is what Springer is then we are stuck with an albatross for 3 seasons already - do you really want two albatrosses - I remember when we stuck with Vernon Wells - eek. 2 of them at the same time?

 

And our farm is apparently bottom five.

 

It's a little tough to keep trying to defend Ross Atkins guys - we spend a lot more money than teams who went further in the playoffs and who have better farm systems.

 

Bellinger and Chapman would be good gets on 3-year $60-$75m contracts but 5-8 years? They're bad contracts. The Jays did this and failed with Ryu and Springer's contract is looking bad - he can't catch up to 95mph anymore which is basically 95% of all back-end bullpens.

 

Fortunately, we have a solid pitching staff and that carried us last year and hopefully will again. Realistically though this is a team that is only capable of WC aspiritions and then you cross your fingers and hope that they can score some runs. When I listened to Blair and Barker - the latter harped all year on the fact that when you put our best players up against better teams like the Phillies - no one in our line-up was striking the element of fear into the hearts of pitchers. All you have to do is pitch down and away to Vlad and he will either strikeout or ground out. He's a one-dimensional hitter. Barker noted that most of the lineup can't hit the elevated fastball.

 

That said - I still think you can add a Rhys Hoskins, JD Martinez type on a 1-2 year deal to add some thump in the line-up and extend the quality somewhat.

 

Maybe the Jays know something about Horwitz and Schneider - that these guys will make an impact. It would be nice for the Jays to get lucky once in a while and have someone come out of nowhere and turn out to be a stud. Manoah and Kirk were sort of those guys - but the league adjusted.

[Rimar]

Yes, but it's less. If no wrong instead of 70 m will be 46 m that will count on luxury tax.

[Rimar]

Before signing Chapman or Bellinger, first need to be 100% sure Bichette and Guerrero will agree for long term contracts. If they refuse, Chapman and Bellinger will be long term useless move. So better trade them both for top elite prospects and rebuild like Brave did. And keep Tiedermann, Manoah.

[Laika]

Before signing Chapman or Bellinger, first need to be 100% sure Bichette and Guerrero will agree for long term contracts. If they refuse, Chapman and Bellinger will be long term useless move. So better trade them both for top elite prospects and rebuild like Brave did. And keep Tiedermann, Manoah.

 

I more or less agree with this

 

Although, not sure I would even extend Vlad

 

But I'm avoiding Bellinger and Chapman unless the cost is MUCH less than anticipated

[Rimar]

Ofc Rogers won't allow Atdkins rebuild 😄 So he will sign Chapman and Bellinger for 6-8 years, and we will lose Bichette and Guerrero when they will test the market, or get crap return like Padres get for Soto, coz waiting to last minute to trade them, hoping convince them sign contracts extension.

[Laika]

Very possible to trade Bo and/or Vlad without "rebuilding"

[connorp]

Dodgers will be f***ed in 10 years once Ohtani retires and his payments kick in. Can't wait lol.

 

In 10 years they will be all done paying him. And since they’re counting today’s value against the luxury tax, I’m no sure if there’s any cap hit on the deferred money, but if so, it’s be $20m+. Which will be nothing in 10 years

[connorp]

Very possible to trade Bo and/or Vlad without "rebuilding"

 

If you’re going to take a shot at the king, you don’t want to miss. If the sexy prospects don’t work, you’re stuck in mediocrity and lost your marketability. Vlad’s WAR isn’t the only thing to consider, calculator man.

[mphenhef]

The problem with Bellinger is that he wants at least 7 years so signing him for the 2 years Bo and Vlad are here means you could be stuck with an albatross for 5+ years. And if 2023 is what Springer is then we are stuck with an albatross for 3 seasons already - do you really want two albatrosses - I remember when we stuck with Vernon Wells - eek. 2 of them at the same time?

 

And our farm is apparently bottom five.

 

It's a little tough to keep trying to defend Ross Atkins guys - we spend a lot more money than teams who went further in the playoffs and who have better farm systems.

 

Bellinger and Chapman would be good gets on 3-year $60-$75m contracts but 5-8 years? They're bad contracts. The Jays did this and failed with Ryu and Springer's contract is looking bad - he can't catch up to 95mph anymore which is basically 95% of all back-end bullpens.

 

Fortunately, we have a solid pitching staff and that carried us last year and hopefully will again. Realistically though this is a team that is only capable of WC aspiritions and then you cross your fingers and hope that they can score some runs. When I listened to Blair and Barker - the latter harped all year on the fact that when you put our best players up against better teams like the Phillies - no one in our line-up was striking the element of fear into the hearts of pitchers. All you have to do is pitch down and away to Vlad and he will either strikeout or ground out. He's a one-dimensional hitter. Barker noted that most of the lineup can't hit the elevated fastball.

 

That said - I still think you can add a Rhys Hoskins, JD Martinez type on a 1-2 year deal to add some thump in the line-up and extend the quality somewhat.

 

Maybe the Jays know something about Horwitz and Schneider - that these guys will make an impact. It would be nice for the Jays to get lucky once in a while and have someone come out of nowhere and turn out to be a stud. Manoah and Kirk were sort of those guys - but the league adjusted.

 

 

Atkins has not drafted/signed and developed a single relief pitcher other than Nate Pearson in years. That, to me, is inexcusable. As a result, they have had to spend resources(money and trade assets) to try to fill those holes that can't be spent elsewhere.

[Laika]

If you’re going to take a shot at the king, you don’t want to miss. If the sexy prospects don’t work, you’re stuck in mediocrity and lost your marketability. Vlad’s WAR isn’t the only thing to consider, calculator man.

 

Okay

[TheHurl]

How many Dodgers hats and jerseys will be sold in Japan this year???

 

And the only way the Dodgers could profit off that is to set up an official Dodgers store in Japan (and I am not 100% sure that is allowed as it states "in stadium" official merch store in the CBA.

[Laika]

$375MM for Yamamoto is f***ing wild.

[TheHurl]

$375MM for Yamamoto is f***ing wild.

 

Makes you wonder what the actual FA value of say a Skenes would be. There is no way I could see a team paying him half that even

[Laika]

Makes you wonder what the actual FA value of say a Skenes would be. There is no way I could see a team paying him half that even

 

Skenes probably a bad example because of the bad fastball shape

 

But, say guys like Rutschman, Witt Jr.,, Holliday, Gerrit Cole... the guys who are on the map as studs for years and consensus top picks.

 

I wonder what Adley Rutschman would have got coming out of college if he was just a pure free agent. Or what someone of that profile would get right now. $400M+?

 

The thing that is different I guess with Yamamoto is the sample in the NPB gives a really solid basis to his projections. Which say he is a top 20 SP... 3.4 fWAR I think. Not exactly capital "A" ACE projections though.

[Jimcanuck]

If the Jays are not willing to sign Bellinger because of the 8/$200 or whatever cost, you can be damn sure the same will apply next year and Soto's 12/$600 ask. And every other free agent.

 

Jays should become a version of the Rays if this is the case.

[Laika]

stfu jim

 

the Jays sign big free agents all the time now

 

Gausman, Springer, many other lesser examples

 

Cody Belanger is a 2.5 win player asking for the contract that a 5 win player deserves

 

 

Boras is just looking for a mark team to dump on, just like Bryant and the Rockies two years ago. Not saying Bellinger would be as instantly worthless as Bryant, but same general thing.

 

If Cody wants to talk a 5 year deal then I'm sure Toronto is interested. They might even give him an opt out after year 2 or 3.