Around Baseball 2023

[BTS]

Straw man building at its finest. My friend, you’re looking at it far too simply. They have DOUBLED their revenue since 2018. That’s pretty crazy. They took a franchise that’s not in a big market and generated a lot of press and excitement. Now they’re trimming around the hedges, as it’s clearly not a perennial WS team. The sport is better for their ownership.

 

Any startup usually burns through a bunch of cash at the front end for market exposure

 

You could have just said I was right instead of typing this word salad.

[John_Havok]

You could have just said I was right instead of typing this word salad.

 

Soto trade imminent in the off-season then?

[connorp]

You could have just said I was right instead of typing this word salad.

 

You could call the prospects they traded for Soto, Snell, Musgrove, and Darvish a word salad. Most wouldn’t recognize any of the names. Most people would’ve given the extension to Tatis. Just hasn’t come together for them.

 

They really built revenue and got people coming out to the the ballpark though. Now they’ll still have some big names but will be a little more reserved about it, apparently. We’ll see what actually ends up happening

[connorp]

I actually just read the article. As a Jay fan, you can feel the pain on those close games. 0-12 in extras is rough

[BTS]

You could call the prospects they traded for Soto, Snell, Musgrove, and Darvish a word salad. Most wouldn’t recognize any of the names. Most people would’ve given the extension to Tatis. Just hasn’t come together for them.

 

They really built revenue and got people coming out to the the ballpark though. Now they’ll still have some big names but will be a little more reserved about it, apparently. We’ll see what actually ends up happening

 

It’s the financial commitments, not the prospect capital. The Bogaerts, Darvish, Cronenworth, probably Machado deals were unnecessary and the team won’t compete with a 200M payroll with that cash on the books.

[BTS]

Like, how do you sign that Bogaerts deal, then cut payroll by 20% a year later and likely lose Soto?

[connorp]

Like, how do you sign that Bogaerts deal, then cut payroll by 20% a year later and likely lose Soto?

 

Hey WAR guy, Machadi and Bogey were worth 8 win this year, that’s $90+ million in nerd money, right? Do you think it’s a big loss that they draft 15th instead of 8th?

 

What FA would they get this year? You’re saying they shouldn’t anyway. So the team should suck this year, suck the next, when should they win? Good luck selling that to a city that isn’t known for baseball fandom

[Terminator]

Like, how do you sign that Bogaerts deal, then cut payroll by 20% a year later and likely lose Soto?

 

Yep. Snell and Hader are FAs after this year. Soto and Kim are FAs the year after. They are going to be terrible.

[Stangstag]

Dubon and Maldonado doing damage to Castillo lol

[thatoneguy]

Preller is so bad man.

[glory]

Not sure what Preller was smoking last winter. The Xander deal and the Machado + Darvish + Cronenworth extensions seemed so unnecessary at the time, and even more so now knowing they'll be losing Snell and Hader this winter, plus Soto and Kim a year from now.

 

With that said, a trade for Soto to pair with Vlad/Bo in 2024 would be pretty cool.

[John_Havok]

Houston up early on Seattle, 3-0

[mellowgold]

Damn the Astros are teeing off on Castillo

[Omar]

Seattle going into free fall.

[JFD]

Seattle going into free fall.

 

Kevin Barker in shambles

[connorp]

Preller is so bad man.

 

If he throw all his trades in a pot, I’m not sure you could say he’s bad. His worst trade and best trade (Turner the former. Tatis the latter), were around the same time and cxl each other out.

 

Usually the big signings have ownership involvement and the owner wanted to push payroll limits to put a WS team on the field.

 

They’re still a contender next year. I’m not sure where SD would be if there wasn’t the ownership and GM they’ve had. My guess would be something like Detroit though

[John_Havok]

Sam Diego is not a bad team. Bad teams don’t outscore their opponents by nearly 100 runs over the course of the season.

 

Run diff for them is up to 91.

[JFD]

Seattle are actually overachievers that have fallen back to earth

[Omar]

Verlander got out of bases loaded one out with a 6-4-3 dp. Why doesn't Verlander throw the fastball? 95% breaking stuff?

[John_Havok]

Seattle are actually overachievers that have fallen back to earth

 

Well…..no. They’re actually underperforming their run diff by a few games, but they’re within the error bars. They’re right about where they should be.

[BTS]

I think in this case, ownership is more to blame than Preller. You can't greenlight the spending they did, then roll payroll back from 250M to 200M. The only way the spending spree made any sense at all was if they were going to keep throwing money at it.

 

Looking at their 2024 roster now, rolling the same team back - picking up Wacha's option, assuming Lugo opts out, and Soto stays at around 30M in his last arb year. They're over 200M. But that's with Snell, Hader, Lugo, and Sanchez all leaving and nothing replacing them.

 

And a lot of their big deals (Machado, Darvish, Tatis, Cronenworth,) are backloaded, so things are going to get worse.

[John_Havok]

I think in this case, ownership is more to blame than Preller. You can't greenlight the spending they did, then roll payroll back from 250M to 200M. The only way the spending spree made any sense at all was if they were going to keep throwing money at it.

 

Looking at their 2024 roster now, rolling the same team back - picking up Wacha's option, assuming Lugo opts out, and Soto stays at around 30M in his last arb year. They're over 200M. But that's with Snell, Hader, Lugo, and Sanchez all leaving and nothing replacing them.

 

And a lot of their big deals (Machado, Darvish, Tatis, Cronenworth,) are backloaded, so things are going to get worse.

 

Kinda all points to a Soto trade doesn’t it. It would make the most sense if the directive is to get down to around 200 million, though I doubt the directive is truly that low. It’s probably more like, get under the 1st luxury tax threshold

 

Soto would be an interesting get for LF. Preller wouldn’t have much leverage to ask for multiple premium prospects or anything since they wouldn’t want to retain any money.

[Jimcanuck]

Padres do have, somehow even after the graduations and trades, a pretty good farm system, with a few strategic trades/moves (Soto and Kim for prospects) they can reload in a short time. If they don't and Soto and Kim and others leave for nothing, they are going to be bad for a while.

[JFD]

Well…..no. They’re actually underperforming their run diff by a few games, but they’re within the error bars. They’re right about where they should be.

 

50% of their run diff is from pounding on the A's

[BTS]

Kinda all points to a Soto trade doesn’t it. It would make the most sense if the directive is to get down to around 200 million, though I doubt the directive is truly that low. It’s probably more like, get under the 1st luxury tax threshold

 

Soto would be an interesting get for LF. Preller wouldn’t have much leverage to ask for multiple premium prospects or anything since they wouldn’t want to retain any money.

 

Yeah, if the directive actually is 200M, Soto is as good as gone. It just doesn't work. But from an ownership perspective, I have no idea how how you spend 630M on Machado and Bogaerts until they're 40 while a year later not having 400M or whatever for a 25-year old Juan Soto. Just a brutal lack of foresight and planning.

[Jimcanuck]

so the odds are very high we are getting Soto? This would be much more exciting than when we got Canseco or Thomas.

 

Nah, just one of the possible destinations among many.

 

There could be some interesting suitors, Seattle for example. I could see Baltimore trading some surplus young talent for him.

[mellowgold]

Baltimore crossed my mind as well. Please no.

[Stangstag]

Nah, just one of the possible destinations among many.

 

There could be some interesting suitors, Seattle for example. I could see Baltimore trading some surplus young talent for him.

 

Baltimore won’t do s***, don’t worry.

[glory]

Baltimore won’t do s***, don’t worry.

 

Baltimore’s owner finding out he has to spend $30m on one player would make his head explode. Doubt they’d acquire Soto. Seattle makes sense.

[Jimcanuck]

Mookie the WAR leader, ahead of Acuna. Did not expect to see that.

 

Soto a fair bit down at #13. With his s***** D I doubt he hits top 5 again.