Around Baseball 2023

[Terminator]

Montas, Story, etc.

 

Hopefully this is a lesson for the Jays to stay on top of their injury situations. It could be the difference between getting a half season out of a good player vs. nothing at all.

[Laika]

Nestor has a hamstring issue but shouldn't miss too much time. What's their upper minors depth like?

 

I'm just looking at their roster resource page and their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. That rotation 1-5 is nasty, even after the Montas injury. But another injury or two and they could be feeling it.

 

Clarke Schmidt is good. They have a handful of other interesting SP candidates, most of them just touched AA for the first time in 2022 so I don't know how ready they are. A bunch of guys who would be 3rd to 6th round picks in the LOD NPD.

Deivi Garcia is still alive.

 

Their depth is good, better than Toronto's I guess, but quite young.

[Terminator]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35630053/2022-2023-mlb-offseason-grades-all-30-teams

 

Can someone post the Jays blurb please.

[Jimcanuck]

Baseball rule changes are at a reasonable balance for now, but more changes are coming.

 

Roboumps are a matter of time and will be a fundamental shift. The pendulum will then swing back towards control/command pitchers and funky pitchability guys like Cimber and away from the pitchers that throw hard in the general vicinity of the plate.

 

Roboumps will mean more balls in play, less Ks.

[Laika]

I'm not a huge fan of this offseason. In raw WAR totals from 2022, the Blue Jays upgraded from 9.9 to 11.0 -- or about one win. But that undersells Moreno's long-term value, so it mostly feels like the Jays are just kind of spinning their wheels here.

 

 

 

I also have some concerns about the new players. Over the past two seasons, Bassitt had a 2.74 ERA at home pitching in good pitcher's parks with the A's and Mets and 3.85 on the road. Now he moves to a tougher division in a tough park for pitchers. Varsho struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2022, so he has to show he's more than a platoon bat. Kiermaier is coming off labrum surgery, while Belt is coming off the worst season of his career and will be 35, so those are two bets on older players. It could all work and push the Jays to a division title: Varsho and Kiermaier are both plus defenders and Belt was terrific as recently as 2021 (.274/.378/.597). I know they had the catching depth, but the best long-term option might have been to keep Moreno, let Alejandro Kirk serve as a DH and ride out Hernandez's final season.

 

Grade: C

[Jimcanuck]

I'm not a huge fan of this offseason. In raw WAR totals from 2022, the Blue Jays upgraded from 9.9 to 11.0 -- or about one win. But that undersells Moreno's long-term value, so it mostly feels like the Jays are just kind of spinning their wheels here.

 

 

 

I also have some concerns about the new players. Over the past two seasons, Bassitt had a 2.74 ERA at home pitching in good pitcher's parks with the A's and Mets and 3.85 on the road. Now he moves to a tougher division in a tough park for pitchers. Varsho struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2022, so he has to show he's more than a platoon bat. Kiermaier is coming off labrum surgery, while Belt is coming off the worst season of his career and will be 35, so those are two bets on older players. It could all work and push the Jays to a division title: Varsho and Kiermaier are both plus defenders and Belt was terrific as recently as 2021 (.274/.378/.597). I know they had the catching depth, but the best long-term option might have been to keep Moreno, let Alejandro Kirk serve as a DH and ride out Hernandez's final season.

 

Grade: C

 

Such a pessimist. Jays offense is similar, pitching is slightly better, and runs saved has gone way up. Run differential will go up and outcome in close games should move more in Jays favour.

[Laika]

It's continuously funny to me that national baseball writers will just remain ignorant of the fact that you can park adjust pitching value. Like who f***ing cares what Bassitt's ERA was at home. Do you think Toronto expects him to pitch to a 2.75 ERA at home, in Toronto?

 

His WAR was his WAR.

[Terminator]

I'm not a huge fan of this offseason. In raw WAR totals from 2022, the Blue Jays upgraded from 9.9 to 11.0 -- or about one win. But that undersells Moreno's long-term value, so it mostly feels like the Jays are just kind of spinning their wheels here.

 

 

 

I also have some concerns about the new players. Over the past two seasons, Bassitt had a 2.74 ERA at home pitching in good pitcher's parks with the A's and Mets and 3.85 on the road. Now he moves to a tougher division in a tough park for pitchers. Varsho struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2022, so he has to show he's more than a platoon bat. Kiermaier is coming off labrum surgery, while Belt is coming off the worst season of his career and will be 35, so those are two bets on older players. It could all work and push the Jays to a division title: Varsho and Kiermaier are both plus defenders and Belt was terrific as recently as 2021 (.274/.378/.597). I know they had the catching depth, but the best long-term option might have been to keep Moreno, let Alejandro Kirk serve as a DH and ride out Hernandez's final season.

 

Grade: C

 

I get the reasoning but it's definitely a glass half empty take.

[John_Havok]

Nestor has a hamstring issue but shouldn't miss too much time. What's their upper minors depth like?

 

I'm just looking at their roster resource page and their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. That rotation 1-5 is nasty, even after the Montas injury. But another injury or two and they could be feeling it.

 

Their pitching depth is not great for immediate help. Gil is already out with Tj surgery from last season, though should be back later this year. Late July/August - surgery was announced May 21 last year though I didnt bother fidning the actual surgery date, so it was probably in June.

 

Will Warren isnt ready, Clayton Beeter might get a shot though he's wild as f*** with nasty stuff. Gomez has only pitched 15 AA innings so probably isnt ready

 

Jhony Brito might soak up some innings but he's nothing special. Deivi Garcia seems to suck

 

If anything, the yankees would probably try to swing a trade to get a SP involving at least 1 of their IF prospects.

[Terminator]

It's continuously funny to me that national baseball writers will just remain ignorant of the fact that you can park adjust pitching value. Like who f***ing cares what Bassitt's ERA was at home. Do you think Toronto expects him to pitch to a 2.75 ERA at home, in Toronto?

 

His WAR was his WAR.

 

Lol yeah he's being paid to be a middle of the rotation pitcher, not to have a 2.75 ERA at home.

[Terminator]

I'm sure the Jays tried to keep Moreno and exhausted every avenue they could but Jansen is a tricky asset to trade with him never putting a full season together due to injury and then his offense taking a while to catch up to his elite defense. If everything clicks, and there's plenty of reason to think it could, you are talking a Top 5 Catcher. But it's hard to get Top 5 Catcher value from him when he doesn't done it yet.

 

Kirk was probably also very hard to trade. With what he's done so far at his young age he's in the company of Hall of Famers. But he doesn't look anything like an elite player so it's also hard to get full value for him.

 

That left them to trade Moreno. We've dove so far into it that I think we all agree that we got close to full value for him but a national writer might look at it and think we got 80-90 cents on the dollar for him thus it was a bad move.

[Laika]

I'm sure the Jays tried to keep Moreno and exhausted every avenue they could but Jansen is a tricky asset to trade with him never putting a full season together due to injury and then his offense taking a while to catch up to his elite defense. If everything clicks, and there's plenty of reason to think it could, you are talking a Top 5 Catcher. But it's hard to get Top 5 Catcher value from him when he doesn't done it yet.

 

Kirk was probably also very hard to trade. With what he's done so far at his young age he's in the company of Hall of Famers. But he doesn't look anything like an elite player so it's also hard to get full value for him.

 

That left them to trade Moreno. We've dove so far into it that I think we all agree that we got close to full value for him but a national writer might look at it and think we got 80-90 cents on the dollar for him thus it was a bad move.

 

You just KNOW that getting Varsho from Arizona was like pulling teeth, too. If I was them, I would have been dead set on dumping Alek Thomas and his noodle bat on someone else.

[Terminator]

Looking back on it though, if we knew we were going to get Varsho I probably would have passed on the Teoscar trade and then not sign KK. That would have been one bonkers lineup.

[Terminator]

You just KNOW that getting Varsho from Arizona was like pulling teeth, too. If I was them, I would have been dead set on dumping Alek Thomas and his noodle bat on someone else.

 

Absolutely. Wouldn't be surprised if that's how the D-Backs got them to throw in Gurriel who wasn't someone the Jays needed after acquiring Varsho, but definitely worth something.

[John_Havok]

Looking back on it though, if we knew we were going to get Varsho I probably would have passed on the Teoscar trade and then not sign KK. That would have been one bonkers lineup.

 

Still only marginally better defensively with Teo out there, but yeah the offense would be pretty hard to beat

 

Would have really interesting to see what the team would look like right now if they had landed Bogaerts, as that would have happened prior to the Varsho trade also

[Krylian]

 

Feel bad for Montas as a person and athlete, but I'd be lying if I said I gave a s*** about how this impacts the Yankees.

[Jimcanuck]

Montas, Story, etc.

 

Hopefully this is a lesson for the Jays to stay on top of their injury situations. It could be the difference between getting a half season out of a good player vs. nothing at all.

 

Mahle is in the same boat as Montas. Shoulder injury, but it was decided to rest it as opposed to a procedure. He too might be going under the knife if the rest didn't work.

 

Rest vs. surgery not an easy call.

[Terminator]

Still only marginally better defensively with Teo out there, but yeah the offense would be pretty hard to beat

 

Would have really interesting to see what the team would look like right now if they had landed Bogaerts, as that would have happened prior to the Varsho trade also

 

No I think the OF defense would still be much better. IT just wouldn't be the Top OF in baseball like it is now.

 

Varsho >>> Lourdes

[Krylian]

Lol yeah he's being paid to be a middle of the rotation pitcher, not to have a 2.75 ERA at home.

 

Amazing that a $21M AAV only gets you a mid-rotation starter in 2023. Inflation is a bitch.

[jaysblue]

Cole

Rodon

Severino

German

 

Still a very deep rotation. Obviously if one of Cole, Rodon or Severino go down, different story.

[glory]

Again, s*** just sailing over your head as usual. The focus right now is clearly shorten the game time. Many objective people outside the scope of lifelong purists would agree this is probably the biggest need to address to keep MLB with NFL and NBA with this new gen.

 

Offense can be a later concern

 

I don't know if the focus is to shorten the game time as much as it is to make the games flow better. Without a clock, there's simply no way to control how long a game goes, but a 3 hour game with less dead time in between pitches, more action, etc, is a far better entertainment product. That's the goal. The 3 outcomes that the league wants to increase are triples, doubles, and stolen bases. The bigger bases + cap on pick off attempts helps with the SB's, and I would think the shift ban is going to help with the 2B/3B, or at least BABIP. Combine that with a pitch clock, and I think the games should flow better overall. At least until the Rays find a way to exploit the rule changes.

 

The thing I've noticed watching baseball with casuals/non fans is that the one thing that gets their eyes off the TV screen and onto their phones the fastest is the time in between pitches. The pitch clock is long overdue. If they just did that and kept everything else the same, even that alone would have improved things. I do think the other changes are a positive though. We will see how it looks on the field. I'm guessing there will be an annoying period where there will be excessive balks and automatic balls/strikes due to pitch clock violations. Hopefully that doesn't last long. Most curious to see what the pitch clock does to velocity. I agree, limit the number of pitchers a team can employ and it will make a difference.

[John_Havok]

I don't know if the focus is to shorten the game time as much as it is to make the games flow better. Without a clock, there's simply no way to control how long a game goes, but a 3 hour game with less dead time in between pitches, more action, etc, is a far better entertainment product. That's the goal. The 3 outcomes that the league wants to increase are triples, doubles, and stolen bases. The bigger bases + cap on pick off attempts helps with the SB's, and I would think the shift ban is going to help with the 2B/3B, or at least BABIP. Combine that with a pitch clock, and I think the games should flow better overall. At least until the Rays find a way to exploit the rule changes.

 

The thing I've noticed watching baseball with casuals/non fans is that the one thing that gets their eyes off the TV screen and onto their phones the fastest is the time in between pitches. The pitch clock is long overdue. If they just did that and kept everything else the same, even that alone would have improved things. I do think the other changes are a positive though. We will see how it looks on the field. I'm guessing there will be an annoying period where there will be excessive balks and automatic balls/strikes due to pitch clock violations. Hopefully that doesn't last long. Most curious to see what the pitch clock does to velocity. I agree, limit the number of pitchers a team can employ and it will make a difference.

 

Hopefully the pitchers and hitters all get used to it in ST and the infractions in the regular season will be minimal. It's going to be the managers i think that will be looking at ways to exploit the time clock.

[Spanky__99]

I read an article by Jayson Stark, that said league execs say get ready for the s***-show this ST in regards to new rules.

[John_Havok]

I read an article by Jayson Stark, that said league execs say get ready for the s***-show this ST in regards to new rules.

 

I'm all for the s*** show in ST, get it over with before it matters. I just can't wait for the first game in the regular season that gets decided by a walk-off balk because the pitcher stepped off or something when he had already done so twice. The aftermath will be amazing

[connorp]

I don't know if the focus is to shorten the game time as much as it is to make the games flow better. Without a clock, there's simply no way to control how long a game goes, but a 3 hour game with less dead time in between pitches, more action, etc, is a far better entertainment product. That's the goal. The 3 outcomes that the league wants to increase are triples, doubles, and stolen bases. The bigger bases + cap on pick off attempts helps with the SB's, and I would think the shift ban is going to help with the 2B/3B, or at least BABIP. Combine that with a pitch clock, and I think the games should flow better overall. At least until the Rays find a way to exploit the rule changes.

 

The thing I've noticed watching baseball with casuals/non fans is that the one thing that gets their eyes off the TV screen and onto their phones the fastest is the time in between pitches. The pitch clock is long overdue. If they just did that and kept everything else the same, even that alone would have improved things. I do think the other changes are a positive though. We will see how it looks on the field. I'm guessing there will be an annoying period where there will be excessive balks and automatic balls/strikes due to pitch clock violations. Hopefully that doesn't last long. Most curious to see what the pitch clock does to velocity. I agree, limit the number of pitchers a team can employ and it will make a difference.

 

Tomato tomoto

[JaysAllMighty]

f***ing clown

 

[JaysAllMighty]

Why can't we post tweets properly now?

[Spanky__99]

Why can't we post tweets properly now?

 

[Spanky__99]

f***ing clown

 

 

How the f*** is that a balk in the Wind-up position? I'll wait...

[JaysAllMighty]

 

I can't see the actual video? Am I missing a setting?