Teo Traded to Seattle

[connorp]

That's a very meaningless statement.

 

I’m going to start using the NPC thing. If someone continually beats FIP each year, can you question that without saying FIP is worthless? Some guys can’t seem to make the separation when everything doesn’t fit in the box

[FantasyNewb]

I was so against the trade initially, but I've come around since. If Teo had a few years left I would hate the trade. But if you look at Swanson's advanced stats, it supports the great year he had (plus, they get an actual prospect) The team needed a much better bullpen and I think they can get a player close to Teo as a free agent or through a trade (especially with the money saved).

 

I think at the start of the season the Jays will be a much better team than they were last year.

[Spanky99]

Hernandez supporters =/= haters of the trade

 

I'm a big Teo supporter but understood the trade, we just need to see the other shoe to drop is all.

[John_Havok]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back-at-the-2022-zips-projections/

 

A perfectly timed fangraphs article. Anyone who wonders about projection systems, just go through the list of the biggest misses on the plus and minus side and you should notice a trend.

 

Generally, the largest misses on either side are due to breakouts, very limited data from the MLB and relying on minor league numbers, or falls off cliffs.

[Stangstag]

I'm a big Teo supporter but understood the trade, we just need to see the other shoe to drop is all.

 

Yeah exactly. I don’t think you can argue that the Jays are worse team right now with no corresponding move.

 

Teo > Swanson if you aren’t considering $$$ and years of control. But the trade makes sense for both teams because we needed to clear some payroll and Seattle has an abundance of bullpen options.

 

You don’t need to jump through hoops to say the jays “won” the trade.

[Spanky99]

You post as if you have insider knowledge. You know nothing about the inner workings and calculus of Toronto and Seattle.

 

I'm enjoying him look like a dolt, though.

[Stangstag]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back-at-the-2022-zips-projections/

 

A perfectly timed fangraphs article. Anyone who wonders about projection systems, just go through the list of the biggest misses on the plus and minus side and you should notice a trend.

 

Generally, the largest misses on either side are due to breakouts, very limited data from the MLB and relying on minor league numbers, or falls off cliffs.

 

This isn’t the win you think it is lol

[connorp]

I'm enjoying him look like a dolt, though.

 

You’re actually not even in a different camp amigo. You’re looking at the deal on a contingent basis. Im not saying it’s probable, but it’s entirely possible there is no other shoe. Just some payroll flexibility for in-season looking at things around the trade deadline. 26th man signings as well

[John_Havok]

This isn’t the win you think it is lol

 

Then you didnt actually read what I wrote, or understood the article.

[Stangstag]

You’re actually not even in a different camp amigo. You’re looking at the deal on a contingent basis. Im not saying it’s probable, but it’s entirely possible there is no other shoe. Just some payroll flexibility for in-season looking at things around the trade deadline. 26th man signings as well

 

If there’s no other shoe to drop, this is a BAD trade for the Jays.

[Deadpool]

You’re actually not even in a different camp amigo. You’re looking at the deal on a contingent basis. Im not saying it’s probable, but it’s entirely possible there is no other shoe. Just some payroll flexibility for in-season looking at things around the trade deadline. 26th man signings as well

 

If this is the case, it will be because targets were missed, not because the front office is totally fine with an OF of Springer, Gurriel, and Lukes. Everyone, including the front office, would see that as a failure.

 

The plan is to acquire at least one other outfielder, and you don't have to be Kreskin (hi other old people!) to see that.

[connorp]

If this is the case, it will be because targets were missed, not because the front office is totally fine with an OF of Springer, Gurriel, and Lukes. Everyone, including the front office, would see that as a failure.

 

The plan is to acquire at least one other outfielder, and you don't have to be Kreskin (hi other old people!) to see that.

 

Which is understandable. Some guys may not want to come. Some guys you may not be comfortable paying what they want. You don’t want to force something

 

But if it doesn’t happen, does it really matter if there good effort and intent?

[Spanky99]

You’re actually not even in a different camp amigo. You’re looking at the deal on a contingent basis. Im not saying it’s probable, but it’s entirely possible there is no other shoe. Just some payroll flexibility for in-season looking at things around the trade deadline. 26th man signings as well

 

Of course it's contingent in a win now season? As for there's no other shoe to drop, I don't know what to tell ya, dumbass. The trade was fine. Shutup already, meat.

[Stangstag]

Then you didnt actually read what I wrote, or understood the article.

 

Ok how about a bet on Teo’s numbers for 2023 then.

 

I win if he has 3 WAR +

 

You win if he has under 3 WAR

[Stangstag]

Of course it's contingent in a win now season? As for there's no other shoe to drop, I don't know what to tell ya, dumbass. The trade was fine. Shutup already, meat.

 

Hard disagree

[Stangstag]

Ok how about a bet on Teo’s numbers for 2023 then.

 

I win if he has 3 WAR +

 

You win if he has under 3 WAR

 

If projections are so frequently correct, this should be an easy bet to take.

[Spanky99]

Hard disagree

 

Okay, lol.

[glory]

You’re actually not even in a different camp amigo. You’re looking at the deal on a contingent basis. Im not saying it’s probable, but it’s entirely possible there is no other shoe. Just some payroll flexibility for in-season looking at things around the trade deadline. 26th man signings as well

 

The team has more big league catching options than big league outfield options right now. There will be another move. Whether the move is good or not remains to be seen but there will be a move.

[connorp]

Okay, lol.

 

You’re just blowing around the winds here, mate

[connorp]

The team has more big league catching options than big league outfield options right now. There will be another move. Whether the move is good or not remains to be seen but there will be a move.

 

I can understand the logic there. It’s reasonable to expect

[Spanky99]

You’re just blowing around the winds here, mate

 

They got a decent return for 1 year of Teo, saved money and he will be replaced, nothing wrong with that. You're just pissing up a rope because you're an eejit.

[connorp]

They got a decent return for 1 year of Teo, saved money and he will be replaced, nothing wrong with that.

 

There should be a popular meme of a guy dancing around on a giant map. I’ve never seen one but I’d post it here

[John_Havok]

Ok how about a bet on Teo’s numbers for 2023 then.

 

I win if he has 3 WAR +

 

You win if he has under 3 WAR

 

You're that confident that his defense isn't going to tank any potential bat gains from 2022?

[connorp]

You're that confident that his defense isn't going to tank any potential bat gains from 2022?

 

He’s confident enough to increase the spread 50% in your favor, from what you think is a very fair line

[jaysblue]

A lot of the trade does ride on what the Blue Jays do with that extra money they save. If they don't reinvest that money elsewhere on the roster for 2023, then yeah in the short term doesn't look like a huge win. Though doubt the Blue Jays just stand pat and not add another OF by time Opening Day comes around.

 

From a controllability perspective, if Swanson over the next three seasons combines to post 4-5 WAR as a reliever, along with Macko doing something, then the Jays benefit for sure.

[Stangstag]

You're that confident that his defense isn't going to tank any potential bat gains from 2022?

 

Fairly, yes. I think playing on a bad foot for the last few weeks tanked his defensive numbers. Also some general variance year to year.

[Spanky99]

A lot of the trade does ride on what the Blue Jays do with that extra money they save. If they don't reinvest that money elsewhere on the roster for 2023, then yeah in the short term doesn't look like a huge win. Though doubt the Blue Jays just stand pat and not add another OF by time Opening Day comes around.

 

From a controllability perspective, if Swanson over the next three seasons combines to post 4-5 WAR as a reliever, along with Macko doing something, then the Jays benefit for sure.

 

That's why the trade is fine.

[Omar]

It is basically almost impossible that there will not be subsequent moves post Teo/Swanson. This is not a middling team that is happy with a 85 win season nor is it an org that is standing on the street corner with an eye patch and a tin cup pleading poor. Moreover Atkins job is on the line after Bongos dismissal. Everyone should be able to see this.

[connorp]

It is basically almost impossible that there will not be subsequent moves post Teo/Swanson. This is not a middling team that is happy with a 85 win season nor is it an org that is standing on the street corner with an eye patch and a tin cup pleading poor. Moreover Atkins job is on the line after Bongos dismissal. Everyone should be able to see this.

 

It’s not MLB The Show. For everyone trade, there’s probably 200 man hours exploring one. And any FA that has potential or is good, is going to have a number of suitors. Even I’m not suggesting Jays are sitting on their hands

[Omar]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back-at-the-2022-zips-projections/

 

A perfectly timed fangraphs article. Anyone who wonders about projection systems, just go through the list of the biggest misses on the plus and minus side and you should notice a trend.

 

Generally, the largest misses on either side are due to breakouts, very limited data from the MLB and relying on minor league numbers, or falls off cliffs.

 

The article states the Mean Average Error for players OPS+ is 16.3 which is quite good all things considered. I wonder what the MAE for OPS+ would be if the sample only included players who were injured and came back in season? In season injuries may wreak havoc with MAE for players like Teo last season. I would have to see the numbers to be sure though.