Guerrero has a serious launch angle problem (again)

[BCZ]

2022 - LA: 4.7 (17th worst out of qualified players)

2021 - LA: 9.4 (50th worst out of qualified players)

2020 - LA: 4.6 (17th worst out of qualified players)

 

This desperately needs to be addressed because if he fixed this I believe he would be the best hitter in baseball (last year he improved on it and he was the best hitter in the AL but even last year it wasn't optimal... imagine what he could do with an optimal LA). Maybe he should start swinging at the bottom of the baseball instead of the middle (lol).

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=3&sortDir=asc

 

Looking at the best homerun hitters the last couple years, the optimal average launch angle seems to be about 15.

 

By the way... Tapia has one of the worst launch angles in baseball the last 3 seasons and he was the only qualified player to have a negative launch angle last season (lol).

Edited September 7, 2022 by BCZ

[Spanky__99]

Heh... has it ever went away? He's still elite.

 

Also the LA to Tapia has been represented and argued ad-nauseum, but he suxxxxxx

 

It's akin to the Jays on changing Mitch White over this off season.

[Daniel Labude]

2022 - LA: 4.7 (17th worst out of qualified players)

2021 - LA: 9.4 (50th worst out of qualified players)

2020 - LA: 4.6 (17th worst out of qualified players)

 

This desperately needs to be addressed because if he fixed this I believe he would be the best hitter in baseball (last year he improved on it and he was the best hitter in the AL but even last year it wasn't optimal... imagine what he could do with an optimal LA). Maybe he should start swinging at the bottom of the baseball instead of the middle (lol).

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=3&sortDir=asc

 

Looking at the best homerun hitters the last couple years, the optimal average launch angle seems to be about 15.

 

By the way... Tapia has one of the worst launch angles in baseball the last 3 seasons and he was the only qualified player to have a negative launch angle last season (lol).

 

And still #3 in all of baseball over the last 2 seasons in HRs. This has been discussed and has been routinely worked on including changes made this week that seem to already have a positive impact on launch angle, especially on lower pitches

[Terminator]

THANK YOU! Dude is a walking DOUBLE PLAY

[wilko]

I'm assuming it's because he gets pitched down low most of the time and chooses to swing at those pitches.

[goldbug103]

THANK YOU! Dude is a walking DOUBLE PLAY

 

I am not sure of that. The LA problem is on going now for 4 years. ItÂ’s more likely due to a mechanical swing flaw. Whether this can be fixed by coaching or not (so far no, but long term probably yes), the Jays should be wary of handing out huge dollars for a 1st baseman with such a problem. Vlad is a good teammate but IÂ’d still be concerned. Mashing 1st basemans are also easy to replace via FA.

[Olerud363]

2022 - LA: 4.7 (17th worst out of qualified players)

2021 - LA: 9.4 (50th worst out of qualified players)

2020 - LA: 4.6 (17th worst out of qualified players)

 

This desperately needs to be addressed because if he fixed this I believe he would be the best hitter in baseball (last year he improved on it and he was the best hitter in the AL but even last year it wasn't optimal... imagine what he could do with an optimal LA). Maybe he should start swinging at the bottom of the baseball instead of the middle (lol).

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=3&sortDir=asc

 

Looking at the best homerun hitters the last couple years, the optimal average launch angle seems to be about 15.

 

By the way... Tapia has one of the worst launch angles in baseball the last 3 seasons and he was the only qualified player to have a negative launch angle last season (lol).

 

This series he's hit a lot of ground balls that is for sure... but can you blame him? Why bother launching a 400 foot 110 mpher that will be just be caught by the left fielder 3 steps from the warning track at the all new, all improved Camden Yards. Better to take his chances trying to get one in between 3rd and short. When he gets back to Rogers Center he can try launching again.

[Terminator]

He's Eric Hosmer with a hall of fame dad.

[Olerud363]

He's Eric Hosmer with a hall of fame dad.

 

 

On a related note, according to fangraphs the best players on the Toronto Blue Jays are...

 

1. Alejandro 'fattie' Kirk (3.8 WAR)

2. Matt '.220 hitter' Chapman (3.6 WAR)

3. Bo 'swings at everyting' Bichette (3.4 WAR)

4. George 'so disabled he can mostly just DH' Springer (3.3 WAR)

5. Vlad 'generational 80 hit tool hitter' Guerrero (2.8 WAR).

 

Some of it is defense obviously, but still...

[Terminator]

On a related note, according to fangraphs the best players on the Toronto Blue Jays are...

 

1. Alejandro 'fattie' Kirk (3.8 WAR)

2. Matt '.220 hitter' Chapman (3.6 WAR)

3. Bo 'swings at everyting' Bichette (3.4 WAR)

4. George 'so disabled he can mostly just DH' Springer (3.3 WAR)

5. Vlad 'generational 80 hit tool hitter' Guerrero (2.8 WAR).

 

Some of it is defense obviously, but still...

 

I said Kirk might be our best player about 3 months ago and was laughed at.

[wilko]

I said Kirk might be our best player about 3 months ago and was laughed at.

 

Back when everyone wanted to trade him and keep Jansen because he had 5 good games?

[BCZ]

I got a little annoyed yesterday because he had three groundouts in a row so I posted this thread... and then he hits a couple liners and redeemed himself slightly (though still 0-5). I wouldn't classify him as a elite as long as his LA is so low.. he's a very good hitter this year though. He obviously has the ability to be elite and it seem he's just a tiny tweak a way... seems a minor tweak to his stance or swing would get him to swing under the ball just a pinch and with this exit velo the results would be glorious.

[Olerud363]

I got a little annoyed yesterday because he had three groundouts in a row so I posted this thread... and then he hits a couple liners and redeemed himself slightly (though still 0-5). I wouldn't classify him as a elite as long as his LA is so low.. he's a very good hitter this year though. He obviously has the ability to be elite and it seem he's just a tiny tweak a way... seems a minor tweak to his stance or swing would get him to swing under the ball just a pinch and with this exit velo the results would be glorious.

 

But the thing is if you raise everything by a 5 degrees he's probably 3/5 with 2 homers... even the launch angle on the fly balls is too low to be optimal. He has to hit the ball 110+ mph to get it out as his homers still almost always have low launch angle for homer.

 

Like the ball that went 390 feet was 21 degrees 107, you get that to 25-30 degrees and it's 420.

[Terminator]

On a more positive note he does have 7 steals since the ASB.

[Olerud363]

On a more positive note he does have 7 steals since the ASB.

 

Even so, look at the stats...

 

Vladimir '80 hit tool' Guerrero - Launch 4 degrees, Steals 7, Homers 27

Aaron 'bet on myself' Judge - Launch 15 degrees, Steals 15, Homers 54

 

Judge is still doubling him in everything including steals... Judge has 4 times the launch.

[Olerud363]

On a more positive note he does have 7 steals since the ASB.

 

 

If he decided to be as reckless on the basepaths as his Dad was in 2002, when he tried to go 40-40 (sr had 39 homers, 40 steals, but 20 caught) I do believe Vladimir Guerrero Jr could be the first 30-30 man

 

30 GIDP, 30 Caught Stealing (with 20+ steals along the way).

[Horses Fart]

I just can’t wait to see what $$$ Is thrown at Vlad when it’s time. Judge too.

[Olerud363]

I just canÂ’t wait to see what $$$ Is thrown at Vlad when itÂ’s time. Judge too.

 

Well, right now how do you price either of them?

 

Judge is 8 WAR per 162 or so, but 30, and a history of injury problems and coming off of by far his best season.

 

Guerrero is 4 WAR per 162 but 23, minor league numbers and 2021 show he could be a 6 WAR guy, but suffers from an extreme ground ball problem, that hasn't been correctable long term.

 

In an era where other young players (Bellinger, Gleybor Torres to some extent) have never repeated amazing 22 year old seasons.

 

In an era where guys are really falling off into their mid 30s.

 

Interesting to see how both are priced.

[Olerud363]

Well, right now how do you price either of them?

 

Judge is 8 WAR per 162 or so, but 30, and a history of injury problems and coming off of by far his best season.

 

Guerrero is 4 WAR per 162 but 23, minor league numbers and 2021 show he could be a 6 WAR guy, but suffers from an extreme ground ball problem, that hasn't been correctable long term.

 

In an era where other young players (Bellinger, Gleybor Torres to some extent) have never repeated amazing 22 year old seasons.

 

In an era where guys are really falling off into their mid 30s.

 

Interesting to see how both are priced.

 

I mean, obviously there is a rational price given all the factors. However will they admit defeat and acknowledge they are risky players and accept some rational deal? Or will their egos, and their agents and 2 illogical teams get them a crazy risky mega deal? Like a 10 400 for Judge, or 10 350 for Guerrero.

[Stangstag]

I mean, obviously there is a rational price given all the factors. However will they admit defeat and acknowledge they are risky players and accept some rational deal? Or will their egos, and their agents and 2 illogical teams get them a crazy risky mega deal? Like a 10 400 for Judge, or 10 350 for Guerrero.

 

Judge, yes. Remember Cohen going hard after Springer and they missed out. He will want to stick it to the Yankees and show off. Im betting Judge gets his mega deal with the Mets. Arte Moreno might be dumb enough to outbid them if Judge doesn’t feel like staying in NY.

[BlueBaller]

One thing with vladdy is he needs to be great now, because he's clearly going to age out very early.

[Solaxys]

Okay, so his LA is s*** but seriously, the problem right now is his pitch selection.

 

If he is a 30 HR guy, with a .300 AVG cause he hits missiles into the ground that clear infield at a respectable BABIP rate, then f*** it and f*** worrying about his LA - that's fine (as long as he gives a s*** and runs to 1B to avoid the close DPs)

 

I thought his eye was supposed to be legendary, the f*** happened to that?

He swings at absolute s*** pitches and watches meatballs go by or fouls them back.

Everyone sympathizes with the dude because they figured out this low/away shenanigan and its unfair blah blah, but when he gets the hanging slider? he fouls them back. Fastballs down middle? Fouls them back. Fastballs in his wheelhouse of up and in? Fouls them back.

If he isn't turning on the mistakes, what is even the point of LA discussion

 

He gets into terrible counts because he is swinging at bad pitches and then swings at anything to make contact to avoid striking out; that has been, predominantly, his shtick this year.

Walk rate down by 4% while strikeout rate has been the same because of that nonsense ideology.

 

At this rate, he isn't even going to hit 30 HRs before season wraps up and he's going to be end at low 3 WAR for the season.

[Stangstag]

Okay, so his LA is s*** but seriously, the problem right now is his pitch selection.

 

If he is a 30 HR guy, with a .300 AVG cause he hits missiles into the ground that clear infield at a respectable BABIP rate, then f*** it and f*** worrying about his LA - that's fine (as long as he gives a s*** and runs to 1B to avoid the close DPs)

 

I thought his eye was supposed to be legendary, the f*** happened to that?

He swings at absolute s*** pitches and watches meatballs go by or fouls them back.

Everyone sympathizes with the dude because they figured out this low/away shenanigan and its unfair blah blah, but when he gets the hanging slider? he fouls them back. Fastballs down middle? Fouls them back.

If he isn't turning on the mistakes, what is even the point of LA discussion

 

He gets into terrible counts because he is swinging at bad pitches and then swings at anything to make contact to avoid striking out; that has been, predominantly, his shtick this year.

Walk rate down by 4% while strikeout rate has been the same because of that nonsense ideology.

 

Yeah its a combination of bad pitch selection (swinging at everything low and away) and missing the mistake pitches (fastball down the middle).

 

He’s just not locked in like he was last year

[BigCecil]

Well, right now how do you price either of them?

 

Judge is 8 WAR per 162 or so, but 30, and a history of injury problems and coming off of by far his best season.

 

Guerrero is 4 WAR per 162 but 23, minor league numbers and 2021 show he could be a 6 WAR guy, but suffers from an extreme ground ball problem, that hasn't been correctable long term.

 

In an era where other young players (Bellinger, Gleybor Torres to some extent) have never repeated amazing 22 year old seasons.

 

In an era where guys are really falling off into their mid 30s.

 

Interesting to see how both are priced.

 

The pricing of Bo and Vlad fascinates me. Very tough call. Lots of risk either way. You didn't mention Yelich ^ .

 

Are the ATL signings comparables at all? AA is a f***ing genius. There are rumours he was moving to sign Dansby long term. He has put up his best offensive season and worth 5.6 WAR already.

[Stangstag]

The pricing of Bo and Vlad fascinates me. Very tough call. Lots of risk either way. You didn't mention Yelich ^ .

 

Are the ATL signings comparables at all? AA is a f***ing genius. There are rumours he was moving to sign Dansby long term. He has put up his best offensive season and worth 5.6 WAR already.

 

Dansby is kind of a surprise because I felt he was a guy that just wouldn’t ever put it together offensively. AA was bang on with him if he tried to extend him prior to this year. The Acuna contract looks incredible at this point in time even factoring in the injuries. Albies has taken a step back but the contract was so outrageous that he’s still underpaid. Austin Riley is looking like a powerhouse.

 

Maybe Olsen is the only questionable one so far? Seems like maybe he could age badly, but he’s still pretty young.

 

Also interesting that AA hasn’t really signed any pitchers long-term. Its a very different approach than our FO, with the majority of our money tied to pitchers and only 1 expensive position player in Springer.

[Olerud363]

The pricing of Bo and Vlad fascinates me. Very tough call. Lots of risk either way. You didn't mention Yelich ^ .

 

Are the ATL signings comparables at all? AA is a f***ing genius. There are rumours he was moving to sign Dansby long term. He has put up his best offensive season and worth 5.6 WAR already.

 

Yellich seems to have a lot of batted ball problems (hard hit rate way down), but sever ground-ball-itis is among them.

 

He had ground ball problems early in his career, seemingly cured them with 2 MVP caliber seasons, one in which he cranked 44 homers then they returned.

 

His ground ball rate early in his career approached 60%, then it was down to 43% in his 44 homer season, now back up to 57%.

 

Ground ball issues can be hard to fix, also see Jayson Heyward.

[Stangstag]

Yellich seems to have a lot of batted ball problems (hard hit rate way down), but sever ground-ball-itis is among them.

 

He had ground ball problems early in his career, seemingly cured them with 2 MVP caliber seasons, one in which he cranked 44 homers then they returned.

 

His ground ball rate early in his career approached 60%, then it was down to 43% in his 44 homer season, now back up to 57%.

 

Ground ball issues can be hard to fix, also see Jayson Heyward.

 

This is scary, mods please ban

[Brownie19]

what's Vlad's weight at right now and what was it at last year? Is it causing an issue?

[Grant77]

what's Vlad's weight at right now and what was it at last year? Is it causing an issue?

 

He's looking like a gold glove candidate at 1B and is running the bases well. I don't see fitness as a major issue.

[BigCecil]

He's looking like a gold glove candidate at 1B and is running the bases well. I don't see fitness as a major issue.

 

Not now. Agreed. Speed down just a touch from last year. He looks a bit heavier to me as season has gone on. He is fielding 1B well but sometimes his movements on picks/throws off to the sides don't look great. Also, its 1B. I think Cecil-Mo-Prince-Pablo on a long term deal. It is a fairly large risk with his body type and Grandma's cooking.

 

People don't want to panic rightfully so over a 133 wRC+ but he has struggled since Aug 1, 5 weeks now, and he struggled down the stretch in '21 too. Fatigue? The GB rates and pitch selection are becoming real issues.