Orioles @ Blue Jays.. Game 1 of 3

[Olerud363]

Curious - what teams do you think have a great chance to win the WS this year? Which lineups aren't streaky and don't get shutdown by elite pitching?

 

You must have missed my response in the Indians @ Jays Game 1 of 3 thread, but I think it truly applies.

 

Baltimore. They have the deepest minor league system in baseball and if they decide to start some clocks on a couple of guys could be a real wild card. Gunnar Henderson for example appears to be ahead of where Bo Bichette was in 2019 (way ahead). Quite capable of pulling a Bo 2019. Not sure who, of their other 9 top 100 prospects are ready to contribute now, but every possibility Orioles (if they choose) get huge additions going into September.

 

Edit: Looking at the minor league numbers Baltimore appears to have placed a premium on minor league on base percentage and patience, also have great left right balance on the major league roster and throughout the minors (they are trying to take full advantage of their gimmicky park, by having left handed line-ups with the short right and long left)

[Brownie19]

Baltimore. They have the deepest minor league system in baseball and if they decide to start some clocks on a couple of guys could be a real wild card. Gunnar Henderson for example appears to be ahead of where Bo Bichette was in 2019 (way ahead). Quite capable of pulling a Bo 2019. Not sure who, of their other 9 top 100 prospects are ready to contribute now, but every possibility Orioles (if they choose) get huge additions going into September.

 

Edit: Looking at the minor league numbers Baltimore appears to have placed a premium on minor league on base percentage and patience, also have great left right balance on the major league roster and throughout the minors (they are trying to take full advantage of their gimmicky park, by having left handed line-ups with the short right and long left)

 

[jaysblue]

I dunno man, the Jays have a 1-2 SP punch that competes with any team.

 

They also have a top 5 or 6 offense / position player group if you zoom out and look at the proper information.

 

The bullpen is now perfectly cromulent. And if Stripling is healthy they can at least roll out an SP3 and SP4 in the playoffs who might not suck. Like they can have White in reserve and yank Berrios if he does not look good, to stay in a game...

 

I doubt they are a bottom third team in the playoffs. With a top tier 1-2 SP punch and a good position core, they get *most* of the way there.

 

If Kershaw is not healthy the Dodgers roll into the playoffs with Tyler Anderson, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin. It doesn't exactly strike fear into you. Edit and Dustin May I guess oops.

 

Like if Jose Berrios was having a normal Berrios season Toronto would look as good on paper, even right now, as most of these playoff teams and better than basically all of the wild card hopefuls in both leagues.

 

This is all basically to say that there are not seven playoff teams with better rosters than Toronto all things considered. There are a handful, but that number is not 7.

 

Yeah I acknowledge their #1-2 punch with Gausman and Manoah. One of the best and can match up with any of the Postseason bound teams. Outside of them, a lot of question marks including Berrios, who is the big missing piece. Who knows if Stripling is pitching like he did prior to his IL stint when he comes back, and even still he's only a max 5-6 inning guy in the Postseason. He won't be facing a lineup more than twice through, leaving the bullpen to close out a tight game for 3 or 4 innings. The bullpen is solid but I don't have much confidence in them closing out a one run game from the 6th or 7th inning on.

 

I love the Blue Jays core lineup pieces. Obviously sucks many of them have been underachieving and are slumping together right now, though that's baseball.

 

Like you said, Jose Berrios is the big key. He needs to be more consistent and pitch like a front of the rotation starter. Would be a huge help. The lineup will get out of the rut they're in at some point.

 

Right now, I consider the Blue Jays one of the weaker teams heading into the Postseason if they started today. Who knows in September: if Berrios gets back on track, we see a couple of arms down in the bullpen pitching lights out and if the lineup starts hitting like they're supposed to, I'll definitely move them up.

 

In a short series, I'll still take the Astros, Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Mariners, Guardians, and Rays over the Jays. Toronto can definitely beat any of those teams, though they need to be playing better baseball in order to do so.

[Laika]

Yeah I acknowledge their #1-2 punch with Gausman and Manoah. One of the best and can match up with any of the Postseason bound teams. Outside of them, a lot of question marks including Berrios, who is the big missing piece. Who knows if Stripling is pitching like he did prior to his IL stint when he comes back, and even still he's only a max 5-6 inning guy in the Postseason. He won't be facing a lineup more than twice through, leaving the bullpen to close out a tight game for 3 or 4 innings. The bullpen is solid but I don't have much confidence in them closing out a one run game from the 6th or 7th inning on.

 

I love the Blue Jays core lineup pieces. Obviously sucks many of them have been underachieving and are slumping together right now, though that's baseball.

 

Like you said, Jose Berrios is the big key. He needs to be more consistent and pitch like a front of the rotation starter. Would be a huge help. The lineup will get out of the rut they're in at some point.

 

Right now, I consider the Blue Jays one of the weaker teams heading into the Postseason if they started today. Who knows in September: if Berrios gets back on track, we see a couple of arms down in the bullpen pitching lights out and if the lineup starts hitting like they're supposed to, I'll definitely move them up.

 

In a short series, I'll still take the Astros, Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Mariners, Guardians, and Rays over the Jays. Toronto can definitely beat any of those teams, though they need to be playing better baseball in order to do so.

 

Will give you the first 4 but not sure about the rest. Cleveland has a vulnerable rotation, it's more good 1-5 than great anywhere; even Bieber is not really an Ace anymore and Toronto probably has better bats. Mariners have two rookies in there and Castillo and Ray are both kind of enigmatic (and Ray is a HR machine) and again edge Toronto on the position side. If the Rays don't have Baz and Glasnow in their rotation then it's no better than Toronto's and their position side is worse IMO.

[JFD]

You're a joke over 500... seriously.

 

8 games over .500 currently. Not a joke yet but going down that path

[5ToolPhenom]

I dunno man, the Jays have a 1-2 SP punch that competes with any team.

 

They also have a top 5 or 6 offense / position player group if you zoom out and look at the proper information.

 

The bullpen is now perfectly cromulent. And if Stripling is healthy they can at least roll out an SP3 and SP4 in the playoffs who might not suck. Like they can have White in reserve and yank Berrios if he does not look good, to stay in a game...

 

I doubt they are a bottom third team in the playoffs. With a top tier 1-2 SP punch and a good position core, they get *most* of the way there.

 

If Kershaw is not healthy the Dodgers roll into the playoffs with Tyler Anderson, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin. It doesn't exactly strike fear into you. Edit and Dustin May I guess oops.

 

Like if Jose Berrios was having a normal Berrios season Toronto would look as good on paper, even right now, as most of these playoff teams and better than basically all of the wild card hopefuls in both leagues.

 

This is all basically to say that there are not seven playoff teams with better rosters than Toronto all things considered. There are a handful, but that number is not 7.

 

Well that 1-2 punch is getting defeated easily by the Baltimore Orioles so maybe they're not quite as good as you're making them out to be lol

[goldbug103]

8 games over .500 currently. Not a joke yet but going down that path

 

Under .500 looks like reality very soon, if not by end August, then end September

[Laika]

Well that 1-2 punch is getting defeated easily by the Baltimore Orioles so maybe they're not quite as good as you're making them out to be lol

 

right.... they suck

[jaysblue]

Will give you the first 4 but not sure about the rest. Cleveland has a vulnerable rotation, it's more good 1-5 than great anywhere; even Bieber is not really an Ace anymore and Toronto probably has better bats. Mariners have two rookies in there and Castillo and Ray are both kind of enigmatic (and Ray is a HR machine) and again edge Toronto on the position side. If the Rays don't have Baz and Glasnow in their rotation then it's no better than Toronto's and their position side is worse IMO.

 

Rays have been the better team so far this season, even with a mediocre roster. On paper, I take the Blue Jays for sure, though the Rays are always a thorn in the Jays side. Rays still have a solid rotation with McClanahan, Springs, Rasmussen and Kluber. Also, give them the edge in the bullpen. Cleveland just won a series against the Blue Jays. Bieber and McKenzie are still a pretty good #1-2 along with Quantrill as a No. 3. Rotation is a wash IMO, though if Berrios get back on track I'll give the edge to the Jays. Cleveland's bullpen has the edge. Lineup wise, agreed I'll take the Blue Jays. If the Blue Jays are playing better baseball, I would move them ahead of Cleveland.

[Olerud363]

 

Not bait at all. I honestly haven't looked deeply at Baltimore's minor league system, other than knowing they have 9 or 10 top 100 prospects.

 

A glance at it indicates they have a lot of left-handed hitters in the minors, a really good pitching prospect (who is injured).

 

A few points

 

1. Baltimore is showing signs of being a really good organization and good organizations can come quick (TBR 2008, Houston 2015)

2. I also think the park that requires a 400 foot bomb with a launch angle of 25 to get out in left (even Vlad/Stanton/Judge 400 foot liners are probably singles) but 350 foot popups to get out to right could be a factor.

3. Related to point 1 they may have really good major league scouting which can be important.

4. They have a very good bullpen which will shorten games in playoffs.

 

Remember Cleveland 2016? One play from winning the world series but take a look at the starters that beat the Jays in 2016. Bauer was injured and outside Kluber they didn't have a dominate starter but got through the ALCS easily and were one swing from winning the World Series. Just a good pitching dev organization, but it wasn't obvious before that ALCS.

[BigCecil]

I dunno man, the Jays have a 1-2 SP punch that competes with any team.

 

Curious if you still think that in looking at the under lying numbers?

 

Manoah has been having increasingly bad months consecutively. He isn't getting destroyed, but LHH are doing more damage.

 

Gausman has been what appears to be really unlucky on BAPIP. Suggests he has been better than his numbers?

 

Berrios to me at this point is less reliable than Strip (if Strip can come back from IL pitching like he was B4) for a Gm 3. Berrios has been like 1/3 pretty good. 1/3 lucky. 1/3 tire fire.

[Laika]

Curious if you still think that in looking at the under lying numbers?

 

Manoah has been having increasingly bad months consecutively. He isn't getting destroyed, but LHH are doing more damage.

 

Gausman has been what appears to be really unlucky on BAPIP. Suggests he has been better than his numbers?

 

Berrios to me at this point is less reliable than Strip (if Strip can come back from IL pitching like he was B4) for a Gm 3. Berrios has been like 1/3 pretty good. 1/3 lucky. 1/3 tire fire.

 

Yeah. Gausman is just legitimately awesome based on everything that matters.

 

Manoah doesn't have the modern K-BB numbers people look for at a glance but he's such an imposing and uncomfortable plate appearance and his stuff as legitimately nasty. People up there are worried about getting hit by a pitch half the time and s***. Like I kind of buy him as a guy who will get contact that is a bit weaker than average, more often than not, just based on the quality of his stuff AND the diversity of his repertoire AND on how he pitches. Perhaps the degree of his current ERA differential is unrealistic though, like he's for sure not a 2.71 ERA guy unless he can pump up the K numbers.

 

I don't think Manoah is an "Ace" like Gausman but he looks like a middle of the pack SP2 with some nice inning eater / durability qualities.

 

So I think Toronto has an ACE ACE and a good SP2 who can hang with anybody, basically.