What if Santiago Espanal is Actually Good?

[max silver]

Yeah, it's possible. But the squaring up more balls will only help a guy like him to a certain point if the amount of balls he puts in play goes way down. His strength last season was putting tons of balls into play, high contact and taking his walks. so yeah, he may or may not have been lucky depending on EV, launch angle etc. Now, his contact is very clearly down, but of the balss he puts into play, he's hitting them harder. There's a balance point somewhere in there (admittedly I don't know exactly where) where hitting the ball harder on average but putting far fewer balls in play would be no better than putting far more balls in play at lower EVs.

 

EV increase = awesome.

 

Not putting as many balls in play with that higher EV = not as optimal as it could be if his contact rate trended a bit back towards last season.

 

 

 

and by no means am I saying he's not a good player, he absolutely is and should 100% be playing everyday on this team.

 

Espinal's contact rates are down but not a super dramatic drop by any means. His chase rate is up about 3% but a bigger issue is chase contact rate being down about 7%. Perhaps this is simply a function of swinging harder than previously. Whiffs are up about 5% but even so his whiff rate is very good at 76th percentile.

 

Aside from the Rangers series the Jays have faced quite a bit of tough pitching so far this season. I suspect once the team finally gets to start playing the weaker sister teams we will finally start to get a clearer picture regarding Espinal's true offensive potential.

[John_Havok]

Espinal's contact rates are down but not a super dramatic drop by any means. His chase rate is up about 3% but a bigger issue is chase contact rate being down about 7%. Perhaps this is simply a function of swinging harder than previously. Whiffs are up about 5% but even so his whiff rate is very good at 76th percentile.

 

Aside from the Rangers series the Jays have faced quite a bit of tough pitching so far this season. I suspect once the team finally gets to start playing the weaker sister teams we will finally start to get a clearer picture regarding Espinal's true offensive potential.

 

His ceiling is probably the 2020 version of Jeff McNeil with a bit less power but far better D. And I don't mean that as an insult. That's a 4ish WAR player.

Edited May 2, 2022 by John_Havok

[Buster]

Can you guys stop having a reasonable conversation by making good well thought out points in a respectful manner?

 

kthx.

[THANOS]

If i was looking at his like 90th percetile outcome from a slash line POV is would be .300/.375/.425 (or witwith elite D at multiple positions which would be friggin fantastic.

 

Yeah, with his Defense, that's a 5-6 fWAR player.

[Jays24]

Defitnitely working out, not meaning to suggest otherwise. But you lost me with RBIs

 

I understand RBI's may not be what they once were in determining a players overall value but it still matters to me. Mainly because it can also be used as an indicator of situational hitting. Some guys can do well with no one on base but struggle to make adjustments to their swing if runners are in scoring position.

[Signal]

Defitnitely working out, not meaning to suggest otherwise. But you lost me with RBIs

 

Seems like when he needs a hit, he gets it. He has hit more than one game winning RBI. That seems to suggest to me that when he wants to - he can cut his swing down and get it done. So while he is working it out, he is still productive.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, with his Defense, that's a 5-6 fWAR player.

 

Not quite, more like 4+ give or take.

[max silver]

If i was looking at his like 90th percetile outcome from a slash line POV is would be .300/.375/.425 (or witwith elite D at multiple positions which would be friggin fantastic.

 

That seems eminently possible given what he's shown so far. I've seen estimates that statcast batted ball estimators stabilize within 50 plate appearances, and Espinal has an xBA of .309 at the moment. Walk percentage potentially needs a little longer to stabilize but given that Espinal sees a very large amount of pitches per plate appearance it's certainly possible that the walk rate ticks up over time. At any rate he's not far behind his career walk rate even with this year's drop compared to 2021.

[max silver]

Not quite, more like 4+ give or take.

 

If he can continue his current level of performance offensively and defensively (seems pretty likely to happen for both) Espinal is there already. If you go back to last season Espinal has been playing at a 4.4 win pace if over 550 plate appearances. His WRC+ is within a point of each other for both years and the defence at second base is arguably even better than what he showed at third base.

[Laika]

Well, there is a tiny bit of concern for him in that his approach seems to have changed drastically with the added muscle, and hasn't really been helping. Still stellar D, no question there at all, but he's trying to mash everything and swinging/missing a lot more. If he reverts to his previous approach and just allows his added muscle to hit balls harder, the results would likely be much better. Just realize he's not gonna ever hit 20 HRs in a season, so stop trying to do that and get back to being the spray hitter but with a higher EV.

 

at least, that's my theory. His WRC+ is virtually identical to last season, but wOBA is down. Power is up, OBP is down. Essentially looks like his gains in power are not yet sufficient to cover his large decline in getting balls in play and on base.

 

I think Espinal got incredibly lucky on batted balls last year and was smart enough to realize his approach was non sustainable. How many times did he bloop balls that landed between the infielder and outfielder? Many to my recollection. With his new approach, he may not end up being better in 2022 than he was in 2021 (he may even end up a bit worse) but I would have a lot more confidence in his ability to sustain above average or average-ish offensive performance.

 

I even joked at times last year that maybe Espinal had a skill/niche for hitting the ball SO SOFTLY that he could maintain a good batting average. Like maybe there is a skill to bloop hits, if your average exit velo is like 84mph and you make a decent amount of okay contact.

[Omar]

I think Espinal got incredibly lucky on batted balls last year and was smart enough to realize his approach was non sustainable. How many times did he bloop balls that landed between the infielder and outfielder? Many to my recollection. With his new approach, he may not end up being better in 2022 than he was in 2021 (he may even end up a bit worse) but I would have a lot more confidence in his ability to sustain above average or average-ish offensive performance.

 

I even joked at times last year that maybe Espinal had a skill/niche for hitting the ball SO SOFTLY that he could maintain a good batting average. Like maybe there is a skill to bloop hits, if your average exit velo is like 84mph and you make a decent amount of okay contact.

 

I agree. He is basically a punch and judy hitter. If he starts swinging for the fences he is going to bat 80 points lower than last year and turn into Ryan Goins 2.0

[Laika]

I agree. He is basically a punch and judy hitter. If he starts swinging for the fences he is going to bat 80 points lower than last year and turn into Ryan Goins 2.0

 

That's not exactly my point.

[max silver]

I agree. He is basically a punch and judy hitter. If he starts swinging for the fences he is going to bat 80 points lower than last year and turn into Ryan Goins 2.0

 

That might have been true in 2021 but that's no longer the case. He's 65th percentile for hard hit rate so he's been making a ton of hard contact. His numbers have been steadily climbing as the hits have finally started to fall in for him. On April 20th his WRC+ stood at all of 70, however over the last two weeks his results have improved dramatically as he's produced a 128 WRC+ over this timeframe. These are the type of results that his quality of contact is predicting.

[Omar]

That might have been true in 2021 but that's no longer the case. He's 65th percentile for hard hit rate so he's been making a ton of hard contact. His numbers have been steadily climbing as the hits have finally started to fall in for him. On April 20th his WRC+ stood at all of 70, however over the last two weeks his results have improved dramatically as he's produced a 128 WRC+ over this timeframe. These are the type of results that his quality of contact is predicting.

 

No doubt his ev has gone up and the bulk is helping. Lets give it a few more months and see.

[Omar]

That's not exactly my point.

 

I got your point about his change in approach vs 2021 and his ability to sustain a consistent level of performance. I just wanted to add that I hope he doesn't think he's going to hit 20 hr and ruin himself.

[max silver]

I got your point about his change in approach vs 2021 and his ability to sustain a consistent level of performance. I just wanted to add that I hope he doesn't think he's going to hit 20 hr and ruin himself.

 

Even with the added juice he hasn't started swinging for the fences as his flyball percentage is only up about 4-5% over 2021. The biggest change has been jumping his line drive percentage by 8% which is perfect as it indicates a swing designed to produce line drive contact.

[wilko]

I'd rather see Espinal getting harder hits and potential line drives than soft contact with luck on his side.

[Laika]

Batted ball data becomes 50% stable at 50 batted ball events.

 

Right now, for players with 50+ BBE, Espinal ranks:

 

50 out of 148 in barrel%

115 out of 148 in max EV

 

So he still looks like someone with below average raw power.

 

I do agree he is not likely to be a 20 HR hitter now. Just not enough raw juice there. His added pop is more like, he could tickle 15 homers, I guess?

 

If he hits 20 it's a career year. Jeff McNeil hitting 23 type of thing.

[jaysblue]

Asdrubal Cabrera type of player would be nice!

[Laika]

Here's a fun comp ----- Brandon Crawford.

[connorp]

Batted ball data becomes 50% stable at 50 batted ball events.

 

Right now, for players with 50+ BBE, Espinal ranks:

 

50 out of 148 in barrel%

115 out of 148 in max EV

 

So he still looks like someone with below average raw power.

 

I do agree he is not likely to be a 20 HR hitter now. Just not enough raw juice there. His added pop is more like, he could tickle 15 homers, I guess?

 

If he hits 20 it's a career year. Jeff McNeil hitting 23 type of thing.

 

If he can put out even 12-15 with a solid avg and plus D, that’s a nice 2b

[John_Havok]

Just some info on his 2022 vs 2021 swing decisions. Looks like the only super meaningful change is the swinging rate in the chase zone is about double last year, which has already resulted in more hypothetical runs lost in a month than all of his PAs last year.

 

Better swing rate in the heart, 50/50 split in the zone youd expect it to be, and the waste zone is about the same

 

[Brownie19]

That's cool John - what website do you find that on? Baseball Savant?

[John_Havok]

That's cool John - what website do you find that on? Baseball Savant?

 

Yeah, you just go to the main page, click on the Visuals menu then scroll down to Swing Take Visuals

[Boxcar]

Just woke up.

 

What was I thinking?

 

It was the Grand Marnier boys, don’t do Grand Marnier.

 

I got to say, my complexion is a little redder than usual.

 

Sorry, Laika, I was an idiot. Always been a cool dude.

 

Hopefully, I can make it up.

 

Let’s go Jays.

 

This is the first I'm hearing of Grand Marnier turning someone into a paranoid conspiracy nut

[Ray]

Hard-Hit%: 40% (up from 22.8% in 2021)

Barrel%: 6.7% (up from 1.6% in 2021)

wOBA - xwOBA: -0.23, so he's actually underperforming his expected stats

OAA: 97th percentile (!)

 

He's also the 4th best 2B in the MLB by fWAR (1st in the AL). Hell of a breakout season for him to be having.

[Laika]

Ignore xwOBA right now - it has not been rebalanced for the reduced run environment. They do that mid-year. It could be off by as many as 20 points right now.

 

Or just mentally adjust it down I guess.

 

Everyone's xwOBA is too high. It's probably assuming league average hitter = .325 wOBA when it is .310 wOBA (I don't know actual numbers).

[max silver]

Ignore xwOBA right now - it has not been rebalanced for the reduced run environment. They do that mid-year. It could be off by as many as 20 points right now.

 

Or just mentally adjust it down I guess.

 

Everyone's xwOBA is too high. It's probably assuming league average hitter = .325 wOBA when it is .310 wOBA (I don't know actual numbers).

 

I suspect xWOBA should still be useful as a tool for comparing relative performance (ie percentile rankings) as everybody in MLB is playing in the same offensive environment. It just won't be as useful for comparing expected performance vs actual results at this point.

[Laika]

I suspect xWOBA should still be useful as a tool for comparing relative performance (ie percentile rankings) as everybody in MLB is playing in the same offensive environment. It just won't be as useful for comparing expected performance vs actual results at this point.

 

yeah exactly

[G-Snarls]

He's good

 

Close the thread??