General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Omar]

Look at the large mass of players who swing at less than 50% but are also below 100WRc+. Lot of below average batters who are selective?

[Laika]

Look at the large mass of players who swing at less than 50% but are also below 100WRc+. Lot of below average batters who are selective?

 

I don't think I would call under 50% selective. I think league average swing% is like 46%.

 

Also, there are a bit more below average players in this sample than above average players. Because 1000 PA in 20 years is a really low cutoff.

[Olerud363]

Maybe the model for Vlad Jr. should be more Manny Ramirez than Miguel Cabrera???

 

Ramirez's 1999-2001 isn't in the graph and those years are insane. lol. He k'd once per game. Drove in a run once per game and hit like .330 .430 .630. Lots of walks.

 

He missed 20-40 games a year too. In 2000 he was on pace to walk 110, k 160, drive in almost 170 and hit .350.

 

In the same time period Vlad Sr. k'd half as much, walked half as much and wasn't as good.

[Omar]

I don't think I would call under 50% selective. I think league average swing% is like 46%.

 

Also, there are a bit more below average players in this sample than above average players. Because 1000 PA in 20 years is a really low cutoff.

Fair point.

[Solaxys]

Cringiest s*** ever but

 

[Stangstag]

We made it guys!!!

[bones10]

Gurriel desperately needs ABs if they plan to start him in the post season.

[Spanky99]

Gurriel desperately needs ABs if they plan to start him in the post season.

 

Looks to me like all 3 of these guys will be available in the last series, which is fine...

 

 

INJURY UPDATES

10-day & 15-day IL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (left hamstring strain)

Expected return: Potentially late September

Gurriel hasn’t started to run the bases just yet, but the Blue Jays believe that could happen as soon as Sept. 30, coming out of the off-day. Gurriel is still doing other baseball activities, though, so he’s put himself in a position to be activated by the end of the season and to see some game action, ideally in that final series in Baltimore. (Last updated: Sept. 28)

 

INF Santiago Espinal (left oblique strain)

Expected return: Potentially by end of season

Espinal is “a little bit behind” Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s recovery timeline at this point, but he's “progressing pretty well,” according to interim manager John Schneider. Espinal continues to hit in the cages, and his next steps will see him ramp up other baseball activities like throwing and running. (Last updated: Sept. 28)

 

60-day IL

RHP Nate Pearson (right lat strain)

Expected return: Potentially late September

Pearson allowed three runs on three hits and two walks in his rehab appearance on Sept. 24, covering just two-thirds of an inning on 25 pitches. The Blue Jays still hope to build him into a two-inning role, but they don’t have much time left to work with. Pearson has had two days off between each of his last two outings, but the Blue Jays are prioritizing that two-inning role over having him pitch back-to-back days. (Last updated: Sept. 24)

[Spanky99]

Cringiest s*** ever but

 

 

They opened up SN Central with this... Cheese! lol

 

This one's cool...

[BigCecil]

We are in! Still work to do. 6 games left.

 

The 3 AL wildcard teams have been limping into the post season the last 10 games:

 

TOR is 4-6

SEA is 5-5

TAM is 3-7

 

Time to turn it up and nail home field. Get hot at the right time! Its there for the taking. Play harder. Play better.

[BigCecil]

I think the smart move this off-season is to trade Teoscar for a couple SP prospects and sign Nimmo. Plug him in CF, move Springer to RF. Gives us a high OBP LHB.

 

Don't have to move him. Sign Conforto if he is healthy and milk whats left with Teo. You can later make a decision if you want to Qualify or dump in deal at the '23 deadline.

 

Not sure how much trade value he or LGJ have left. Teo has has one outlier 4 WAR season but LGJ is consistently 1 to 2.

[Laika]

I guess Pearson is done? Pitched one clean inning on the 27th but Buffalo's season is over now.

I can't see how they fit him on a playoff roster unless there are a couple of RP injuries in the final week here.

 

He was mediocre/rusty in his September AAA relief journey. 7.2 IP 9 Ks 5 BB

 

So he's probably behind Merryweather. And maybe other AAA scrubs

[Spanky99]

I guess Pearson is done? Pitched one clean inning on the 27th but Buffalo's season is over now.

I can't see how they fit him on a playoff roster unless there are a couple of RP injuries in the final week here.

 

He was mediocre/rusty in his September AAA relief journey. 7.2 IP 9 Ks 5 BB

 

So he's probably behind Merryweather. And maybe other AAA scrubs

 

Merryweather still hasn't given up a run in Buffalo, but he gets rocked when up with the Jays, weird.

[Stangstag]

I guess Pearson is done? Pitched one clean inning on the 27th but Buffalo's season is over now.

I can't see how they fit him on a playoff roster unless there are a couple of RP injuries in the final week here.

 

He was mediocre/rusty in his September AAA relief journey. 7.2 IP 9 Ks 5 BB

 

So he's probably behind Merryweather. And maybe other AAA scrubs

 

What a disappointment he’s been

[Spanky99]

I can see Pop get optioned or Kikuchi put on the 60 day IL with some phantom injury, to get looks at Pearson down this stretch, I'm expecting some sort of sighting.

[mphenhef]

what a disappointment he’s been

 

tinstaapp

[Krylian]

What a disappointment he’s been

 

He's gonna be someone else's Merryweather.

[saskjayfan]

He's gonna be someone else's Merryweather.

 

That or someone else's Jordan Romano.

[BigCecil]

Listening to David Samson, former Marlins President for 15 years. Does the "Nothing Personal" podcast. Kind of shocking to hear his comments about Berrios.

 

FWIW he said he is being paid like a 2 and pitching like an 8. And that the Jays FO this off season might consider releasing him.

 

Seems like a bizarre overstatement. He was certainly hinting that they are really concerned this isn't a blip season. He is really tight with Shapiro.

[Stangstag]

Listening to David Samson, former Marlins President for 15 years. Does the "Nothing Personal" podcast. Kind of shocking to hear his comments about Berrios.

 

FWIW he said he is being paid like a 2 and pitching like an 8. And that the Jays FO this off season might consider releasing him.

 

Seems like a bizarre overstatement. He was certainly hinting that they are really concerned this isn't a blip season. He is really tight with Shapiro.

 

Almost just praying he has an injury at this point. I don’t get how he could go from one of the most consistent pitchers in the league to a gascan in 1 year.

 

Also I enjoy David Samson’s stuff but a lot of his “inner knowledge” stuff like his convos with other GMs seems like ******** half the time

[Stangstag]

Also I will say again, Jays chose the absolute worst time to extend Berrios. Imagine if they hadn’t?

 

A cautionary tale for extending players early when you still have control. I have no doubt the Berrios contract has made them more hesitant to lock up guys like Vlad/Bo/Manoah. Its almost always better to ride things out.

[Laika]

Listening to David Samson, former Marlins President for 15 years. Does the "Nothing Personal" podcast. Kind of shocking to hear his comments about Berrios.

 

FWIW he said he is being paid like a 2 and pitching like an 8. And that the Jays FO this off season might consider releasing him.

 

Seems like a bizarre overstatement. He was certainly hinting that they are really concerned this isn't a blip season. He is really tight with Shapiro.

 

Yeah that's dumb. His peripherals are not sub replacement level. His FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who still belongs in an MLB rotation.

 

He's getting paid like a 2 and pitching like a durable #5. It sucks, but this guy is blowing hot air.

[G-Snarls]

I guess Pearson is done? Pitched one clean inning on the 27th but Buffalo's season is over now.

I can't see how they fit him on a playoff roster unless there are a couple of RP injuries in the final week here.

 

He was mediocre/rusty in his September AAA relief journey. 7.2 IP 9 Ks 5 BB

 

So he's probably behind Merryweather. And maybe other AAA scrubs

 

See you in the Spring Nate!

 

[pats his back]

[Stangstag]

Yeah that's dumb. His peripherals are not sub replacement level. His FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who still belongs in an MLB rotation.

 

He's getting paid like a 2 and pitching like a durable #5. It sucks, but this guy is blowing hot air.

 

Yeah well I just listened to his latest podcast and he ranted for 5 minutes about how pitcher wins matter and the nerds in front office don't care about winning.... so yeah David Samson

[Terminator]

Bring up Pearson and piggyback him to Mitch White's next start. Why not.

[Solaxys]

If we manage to clinch homefield advantage before the final game, then it's gonna be a bullpen game - good time for Pearson.

[BigCecil]

Yeah well I just listened to his latest podcast and he ranted for 5 minutes about how pitcher wins matter and the nerds in front office don't care about winning.... so yeah David Samson

 

Did you watch "Facing Nolan" on Netflix? Takes you back 20 + years in a hurry.

 

CAL Angels GM publically ridiculing Ryan contract ask over his 1979 16-14 season. Said "I can sign two 8-7 pitchers for less than he wants"

 

He threw 222 IP. Led the league in Ks and had a 3.22 FIP but he didnt "win" enough.

[bones10]

Yeah that's dumb. His peripherals are not sub replacement level. His FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who still belongs in an MLB rotation.

 

He's getting paid like a 2 and pitching like a durable #5. It sucks, but this guy is blowing hot air.

 

hes also been good for a lot longer than hes been awful, which was literally just this one season.

[Laika]

hes also been good for a lot longer than hes been awful, which was literally just this one season.

 

"inexplicably bad" is what I keep wanting to say about Berrios

[BigCecil]

Yeah that's dumb. His peripherals are not sub replacement level. His FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who still belongs in an MLB rotation.

 

He's getting paid like a 2 and pitching like a durable #5. It sucks, but this guy is blowing hot air.

 

I actually like a lot of his analysis. He was breaking down economic value of hosting the wildcard = not much. He was telling the story on the owner demanding he signed Stanton, and how that went down. As in "whats your number?" Number given. Answer "done".

 

The Berrios comment I hope to f*** he is just being a shock jock on. Guy sure has high praise for Shapiro.