General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

You won’t know unless there is a deal or way later.

 

Thanks, lol.

[Olerud363]

He's a 23 year old hitting savant with mammoth power and he's a huge marketing pull.

 

I don't see that much risk on the contract. It's not like giving a 28 or 29 year old free agent a 10 year deal.

 

Even fatty Prince Fielder was good through his age 29 season and offered a 2 WAR dead cat bounce at age 31.

 

Prince Fielder = the worst case scenario for Vlad unless he likes coke and boats

 

But his upside is of course Miggy/Pujols........

 

How is Prince Fielder the worse case? Prince Fielder is more like the expectation. They are very similar through age 23.

 

What about Cody Bellinger? That is more like the worst case scenario for a guy with a ~50 homer season in his early 20s

[Olerud363]

What discount are we getting here? Is he really going into free agency and getting 10/350 or 10/400 even as a 26 year old free agent? Correa didn’t get that and he’s a short stop.

 

There’s like a 20% chance that 10/300 ends up being a discount. He’d need to be like a 40 WAR player over the life of the contract. Honestly, he’d need to project WAY higher than that when you take into account all the risk

 

This is not a smart team move. Although, after the Grichuk contract and the insane ‘cost control’ reasoning behind it… we might not be that smart.

 

Edit; also I heard recently that the only thing that drives attendance is winning. I need to track down the study but it sounds about right to me.

 

I mean look at the Jays numbers... They won 1 division the last 30 years and it was an instant 45k a game in the stretch drive and 3.4 million for a 89 win wild card the next year.

 

2003 which featured a near MVP in Delgado, a Cy Young in Halladay, and great season from Vernon Wells was horrible attendance, as was 2000 (Delgado .344 with 99 xbase hits).

 

2010/11 which featured an MVP caliber Bautista was bad attendance. 2019 which featured the debuts of the legacy trio was bad attendance.

 

Maybe the new playoff spot thing will make the 85 win teams get better attendance because of the perception of winning, but I bet not.

 

If they ever built a truly good team, that was high 90s wins a few years and won divisions they'd knock on 4 million a year again.

 

A 85 win a year team with Bo and Vlad signed long term would get half that in attendance.

[BigCecil]

How is Prince Fielder the worse case? Prince Fielder is more like the expectation. They are very similar through age 23.

 

What about Cody Bellinger? That is more like the worst case scenario for a guy with a ~50 homer season in his early 20s

 

Bellinger. Yelich. That contract looks pretty bad now. Vlad has the kind of body type like Mo, Prince and Sandoval, who ballooned after his big deal with the Red Sox ( I remember the time his belt exploded after a swing lol) I'd love to see Vlad signed long term given the things he can do. I think they will saw off a deal that reflects his elite talent and the team risks. Or they could do the Rays thing and load up off of him.

[Jonn]

Wow the Blue Jays made an intelligent lineup decision for once. DHing Springer on a Friday (Night game before a day game) So we don’t have to lose Kirk or Springer from the lineup Saturday. This will allow Springer to play CF Saturday and Kirk slot in at DH. So many times this season Montoyo opted to rest Springer the day game after the night game so we had to lose one of them from the lineup as a result.

[Laika]

What discount are we getting here? Is he really going into free agency and getting 10/350 or 10/400 even as a 26 year old free agent? Correa didn’t get that and he’s a short stop.

 

There’s like a 20% chance that 10/300 ends up being a discount. He’d need to be like a 40 WAR player over the life of the contract. Honestly, he’d need to project WAY higher than that when you take into account all the risk

 

This is not a smart team move. Although, after the Grichuk contract and the insane ‘cost control’ reasoning behind it… we might not be that smart.

 

Edit; also I heard recently that the only thing that drives attendance is winning. I need to track down the study but it sounds about right to me.

 

Why do you have to get a discount? It can just be a fair deal.

 

Arb projections:

 

2023 $13M

2024 $19M

2025 $25M

 

(source: I made them up)

 

Production projection:

 

2023 - 6 WAR

24 - 6 WAR

25 - 6 WAR

26 - 6 WAR - age 27 season = physical peak so start decline

27 - 5.5 WAR

28 - 5 WAR

29 - 4 WAR

30 - 3 WAR

31 - 2 WAR = age 32 so let's assume significant injury and he is done

32 - 0 WAR

 

Total = 43.5 WAR

 

(source: I made these up)

 

If you give him the arb numbers and then tack on 30M AAV for 7 years the total contract is $267M

 

That's 6.14M per projected WAR which is pretty nice. Under market value. And no consideration for having a homegrown marketable superstar for so long.

 

And that aging curve I did is pretty harsh. Like, it assumes no MVP seasons and hard decline. He could have some 8 WAR seasons and stay great into his 30s.

[Jonn]

10/$250M for Vlad

10/$200M for Bo

 

Do both right now

 

Take the risk, get both long term. Build and compete each year

 

How to potentially hamstring your franchise for decade in a couple of moves. Neither player has earned that kind of money. Vladdy looked like he could be that type of player last year. But he has nowhere near resembled that player so far this year. He looks a lot more like the player he was in 2019/20

[Spanky99]

How is Prince Fielder the worse case? Prince Fielder is more like the expectation. They are very similar through age 23.

 

What about Cody Bellinger? That is more like the worst case scenario for a guy with a ~50 homer season in his early 20s

 

Fielder had Degenerative Spine Disorder, quite different.

[Laika]

Bellinger. Yelich. That contract looks pretty bad now. Vlad has the kind of body type like Mo, Prince and Sandoval, who ballooned after his big deal with the Red Sox ( I remember the time his belt exploded after a swing lol) I'd love to see Vlad signed long term given the things he can do. I think they will saw off a deal that reflects his elite talent and the team risks. Or they could do the Rays thing and load up off of him.

 

Vlad has old man skills.

 

Anyone could get hurt or fall off a cliff but he kind of has the type of baseball skills that can age well. Like old Nelly Cruz or 34 year old Papa Goldschmidt having a golden year.

 

It's a bullish lack of athleticism tbh

[Solaxys]

I think we just all miss the Vlad from 2021, who collectively accumulated 3.03 WPA for the first half of the season, where he is at 0.67 now.

 

Aside from his 3-HR game against Cole, nothing he has done comes to mind immediately and starkly. The single that won the Sox game was all right, but its not a exclamation point.

All I remember him this year for is his celebrations, media quotes, and balls going through his glove.

Might be logical fallacy, but personally that's it.

 

Vlad was an absolute feared hitter last year even when he was slumping; this year, not so much, everyone knows the 'trick' to get him out or at least get him to ground out.

He's late on hanging sliders/middle-middle fastballs (if you look at his splits, his pull% is down by 4 while his centerfield% is up by 6% - so things that could be HRs are just warning-track flyouts), gets Teo-esque levels of fooled by away/down pitches (O-swing went by 5%), GB% still 7% higher than last year (closer to 2019/2020 than last year), his soft-contact overall went up by 6% while hard contact went down because he is chasing those outside pitches, grounded into 14 DPs (when he only did 20 the entirety of last year).

 

Shrugs. 'Field' metrics do not change any of those %s (so we can't attribute it to AAA park that most of baseball likes to say).

Not sure what changed, why his stance changed (and changed AGAIN like a week and a half ago), why he regressed to 2020 shenanigans and hasn't adapted despite having 300+ PAs already, etc. etc. etc.

The entire expectation of WS was predicated on Vladdy being 2021 Vladdy, so understandably when he isn't performing to that level, we should all lower our expectations for the ballclub as well.

 

That 8th inning 3-pitch K BS is still in my mind; perfect time to do damage and take the lead and he just went up there guessing on 3 pitches against a 10 ERA pitcher.

You just expect more from your two-time all-star "hitting savant with mammoth power".

[Dagagad]

Why do you have to get a discount? It can just be a fair deal.

 

Arb projections:

 

2023 $13M

2024 $19M

2025 $25M

 

(source: I made them up)

 

Production projection:

 

2023 - 6 WAR

24 - 6 WAR

25 - 6 WAR

26 - 6 WAR - age 27 season = physical peak so start decline

27 - 5.5 WAR

28 - 5 WAR

29 - 4 WAR

30 - 3 WAR

31 - 2 WAR = age 32 so let's assume significant injury and he is done

32 - 0 WAR

 

Total = 43.5 WAR

 

(source: I made these up)

 

If you give him the arb numbers and then tack on 30M AAV for 7 years the total contract is $267M

 

That's 6.14M per projected WAR which is pretty nice. Under market value. And no consideration for having a homegrown marketable superstar for so long.

 

And that aging curve I did is pretty harsh. Like, it assumes no MVP seasons and hard decline. He could have some 8 WAR seasons and stay great into his 30s.

 

Well, 267m is a lot closer to what I’d consider reasonable. That might be a fair contract.

 

However, you don’t give fair contracts because of risk. The player gets security and the team gets a discount. That’s the entire point of signing early.

 

That’s taking your projections as real. I doubt he will be projected to be a 6 WAR player next year by any projection system.

[Spanky99]

Kenny Ken says the Reds are asking for Volpe and Oswald Pereza for Castillo from the Yanks whom have said that ain't happening, so there's the asking price, ATM.

[Jonn]

Why? Why not just play out his next couple arb years and see if he can repeat 2021? If he does, maybe the price goes up a bit. If he doesn’t, then you dodged a major bullet.

 

Not worth the risk IMO unless its something more team-friendly like Wander or Acuna contracts

 

This is exactly what they should do. He’s not going to get a ground breaking contract on the Open Market as a 1B/DH. I would go year to year with him. Even if he has his best year his walk year. Nobody is giving him 10 years and 300+ million. Those contacts are reserved for special players who play premium positions. Vlad has had one elite season. His years before that year and after have both been more align.

[Laika]

Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things.

 

The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable.

 

If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.

[Dagagad]

Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things.

 

The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable.

 

If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.

 

What if your priority is to be a fan of a winning baseball team?

 

I don’t care if we produced vlad. I want to win.

[Laika]

Well, 267m is a lot closer to what I’d consider reasonable. That might be a fair contract.

 

However, you don’t give fair contracts because of risk. The player gets security and the team gets a discount. That’s the entire point of signing early.

 

That’s taking your projections as real. I doubt he will be projected to be a 6 WAR player next year by any projection system.

 

So shave 4 wins off if you want, it doesn't change anything.

 

He's projected to be 5-6 wins right now at a glance, depending how much PA you want to project.

[Dagagad]

So shave 4 wins off if you want, it doesn't change anything.

 

He's projected to be 5-6 wins right now at a glance, depending how much PA you want to project.

 

Yea, but that’s paying fair market prices. So, just wait until 2026 and pay fair market prices then. Same difference, less risk.

[Spanky99]

Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things.

 

The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable.

 

If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.

 

lmao

[Laika]

Yea, but that’s paying fair market prices. So, just wait until 2026 and pay fair market prices then. Same difference, less risk.

 

There are risks there.

 

1. He tests the market and ends up a Yankee

2. He is a beast in his walk year and commands 10/300 after his final arb season. That's gross.

[Spanky99]

Yea, but that’s paying fair market prices. So, just wait until 2026 and pay fair market prices then. Same difference, less risk.

 

Then he likely goes to FA, that's the risk.

[Dagagad]

Then he likely goes to FA, that's the risk.

 

Cool, so pay market prices in FA then if you want to keep him.

 

If you aren’t getting a discount then what’s the point?

 

If he gets 10/300 as a 1B in FA then tip the cap and move on. The Yankees can have him.

 

Let’s face it, he’s getting more like 8/240 at absolute best in FA unless he puts up some 7/8 WAR seasons. He’s a 1B and most front offices don’t value that as much.

[Jonn]

Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things.

 

The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable.

 

If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.

 

I believe that player is actually Carlos Delgado. I will take a full body of work. Vlad had the best overall season. But Delgado was consistently very very good. Vlad so far has had his crazy outlier season in 2021. But his 2019, 2020, and 2022 numbers are basically carbon copies of each other. More time is needed to determine how elite his bat truly is.

[Solaxys]

He's projected to be 5-6 wins right now at a glance, depending how much PA you want to project.

 

Just curious on this, how?

fWAR at 1.7, bWAR at 1.6 where we already played 90 games (more than half of 162).

 

Unless he goes on an absolutely massive offensive tear, he can't be projecting more than 3.5 WAR.

 

One thing to note though is his defense has improved quite a lot.

[Jonn]

Then he likely goes to FA, that's the risk.

 

If anyone would be willing to spend more than some of the money figures thrown around here. I would comfortably let him walk lol.

[Laika]

I believe that player is actually Carlos Delgado. I will take a full body of work. Vlad had the best overall season. But Delgado was consistently very very good. Vlad so far has had his crazy outlier season in 2021. But his 2019, 2020, and 2022 numbers are basically carbon copies of each other. More time is needed to determine how elite his bat truly is.

 

Delgado was three whole years older than Vlad when he turned into an elite hitter

[Laika]

Just curious on this, how?

fWAR at 1.7, bWAR at 1.6 where we already played 90 games (more than half of 162).

 

Unless he goes on an absolutely massive offensive tear, he can't be projecting more than 3.5 WAR.

 

One thing to note though is his defense has improved quite a lot.

 

I mean true talent projection, looking at his projected WAR rate

[Olerud363]

Fielder had Degenerative Spine Disorder, quite different.

 

Right. But that didn't get him until he was 29. Fielders age 22 through 28 were about what Vlad has been at 22 and 23. Fluctuating between .260 and .300, 35-50 homeruns.

 

Could argue that players peak at 26 so he'll still get better and improve.

 

On the other hand Pujols had established by age 23 that he was a .330 hitter with a .359 max. Through age 23 Vlad is a .280 hitter age with a .310 max.

 

On the other hand Pujols was probably 29 when he was 23 and didn't have a shift.

 

But as an MLB player Vlad is so far closer to Fielder.

[Spanky99]

If anyone would be willing to spend more than some of the money figures thrown around here. I would comfortably let him walk lol.

 

I don't really care about this topic, to be honest. Unless we hear some scuttlebutt on this.

[Jonn]

Delgado was three whole years older than Vlad when he turned into an elite hitter

 

Fair but Delgado did it consistently. I wouldn’t classify Vlad’s performance this season as elite. We don’t know how good Vlad actually is yet. If he’s been the player he has been this season and 2019/20 are you still comfortable with giving 10 years and 300M? Lets just say what he is currently producing is what he projects on average for the next 10 years.

[BigCecil]

How to potentially hamstring your franchise for decade in a couple of moves. Neither player has earned that kind of money. Vladdy looked like he could be that type of player last year. But he has nowhere near resembled that player so far this year. He looks a lot more like the player he was in 2019/20

 

This is a good discussion IMO happening here. Vlad we have seen has the type of talent to put up 190 wRC+ for 6 weeks. If he does that in the 2nd half our recency bias would probably be leaning more to GET THE CHECK BOOK OUT NOW. I hope he does because if he remains under 130 wRC+ we aren't going anywhere in 22.