General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

Wellllllllll part of it is that the division is stacked.

 

By fWAR Toronto has the 7th best bullpen in the AL. The only non AL East teams with superior pens by fWAR are Detroit (by half a win) and Houston.

 

lmao

 

Yes, by ERA they rank worse but that's not a park adjusted, or luck adjusted, or strength-of-schedule adjusted stat so no sense looking at it

 

By K-BB% Toronto's pen is the 5th best in the AL, including better than BOS and BAL

 

 

 

 

Complaints about the bullpen are mildly overblown.

 

It's not elite but it's not actually a complete disaster.

 

How about FIP and swinging strike rate?

 

I tend to agree with you that they aren’t a complete disaster but you picked all the stats that help them.

 

It was intended to be an average pen that came out as below average.

[Laika]

How about FIP and swinging strike rate?

 

I tend to agree with you that they aren’t a complete disaster but you picked all the stats that help them.

 

It was intended to be an average pen that came out as below average.

 

FIP is essentially fWAR

 

whiff rate is great but at some sample size K% or K-BB% takes over in importance

 

Tiny sample (one game or less than a game) = pitch shape and velo and spin

Small sample (one game or a few games) = plate disc. stats like whiff rate and zone rate

Medium sample (weeks / a few months of games) = ERA estimators including the simple K-BB% differential

Medium big sample (a season) = other ERA estimators

Large sample (many seasons) = ERA

[Dagagad]

FIP is essentially fWAR

 

whiff rate is great but at some sample size K% or K-BB% takes over in importance

 

Tiny sample (one game or less than a game) = pitch shape and velo and spin

Small sample (one game or a few games) = plate disc. stats like whiff rate and zone rate

Medium sample (weeks / a few months of games) = ERA estimators including the simple K-BB% differential

Medium big sample (a season) = other ERA estimators

Large sample (many seasons) = ERA

 

Aren’t they 13th in the AL in fWAR? Am I looking at the wrong leaderboard?

 

I’m seeing 23rd in FIP and 25th in fWAR league wide.

 

I’m sorting by team, pitching, relievers on fangraphs .

[RobinThicc]

I guess they'll subtract from the major league roster to address some of the pitching.

 

One of the catchers, maybe a guy like Biggio could be moved.

 

I wonder if they would look to move Hernandez at some point if they cant/dont want to re-sign him. Not saying in season, but this upcoming offseason.

[Laika]

Aren’t they 13th in the AL in fWAR? Am I looking at the wrong leaderboard?

 

I’m seeing 23rd in FIP and 25th in fWAR league wide.

 

I’m sorting by team, pitching, relievers on fangraphs .

 

Yeah I honestly don't know what happened here.

 

I must have had a toggle wrong but I can't even reproduce it.

 

Or Fangraphs literally just updated and Casey Lawrence lost like 0.6 fWAR or something

 

edit - oh it flipped back to "All" for me and not just relievers

 

ignore everything I said and ever will say

[Dagagad]

Yeah I honestly don't know what happened here.

 

I must have had a toggle wrong but I can't even reproduce it.

 

Or Fangraphs literally just updated and Casey Lawrence lost like 0.6 fWAR or something

 

edit - oh it flipped back to "All" for me and not just relievers

 

ignore everything I said and ever will say

 

Ahh, yea our pitching overall has been good because of manoah, gausman and stripling. They’ve basically saved our season.

 

They aimed for an average pen I think. That’s our projection, and we just haven’t hit it. We are close enough to it though that it might be random, I don’t know.

[Dagagad]

I guess they'll subtract from the major league roster to address some of the pitching.

 

One of the catchers, maybe a guy like Biggio could be moved.

 

I wonder if they would look to move Hernandez at some point if they cant/dont want to re-sign him. Not saying in season, but this upcoming offseason.

 

I would move Jansen for the best possible return (even all prospects) and then use prospects to buy relievers. You are more likely to get full value that way.

[Solaxys]

 

yikers. (its from reddit but seems sound from eye test)

 

---

 

I feel like we love to bash the FO for everything (and maybe they deserve it), but my god, the players are all playing so below expectations this month - its unreal.

[Laika]

Ahh, yea our pitching overall has been good because of manoah, gausman and stripling. They’ve basically saved our season.

 

They aimed for an average pen I think. That’s our projection, and we just haven’t hit it. We are close enough to it though that it might be random, I don’t know.

 

Yeah the core bullpen guys are perfectly "fine" there just isn't enough elite at the backend + the lower end dudes are pretty trash

[Laika]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2404[/ATTACH]

 

yikers. (its from reddit but seems sound from eye test)

 

---

 

I feel like we love to bash the FO for everything (and maybe they deserve it), but my god, the players are all playing so below expectations this month - its unreal.

 

Yes most of the recent frustration is squarely on the players. Blame I mean.

[Solaxys]

From last month (May 8 to June 7th) to this month (June 8 to July 7):

 

Ugly things:

Bichette wRC went down:147 to 90

Espinal went down: 133 to 68

Springer went down: 132 to 97; a fantastic 9 over the last 7 days

Moreno just trended way the f*** down (he needs more playing time to get used to the pitching)

 

Bad things:

Kirk has regressed from his 200 wRC+ to 159 this month (which seems more reasonable); 59 wRC+ in the last 7 games with a slash of 250/280/292 (0.572 OPS)

Guerrero went up (106 to 147) but his BB-K rate went below league average (0.42) from one of the best in the league in May (0.93)

Teo went up (71 to 137) but his BB-K rate is just dumpster fire (0.17)

 

OK/Good things:

Biggio has remained consistent around the 150 wRC+

Chapman consistent around 100 wRC+ (which is in line with his 2021 performance; not sure we'll see his 2018/2019 again, but he's been hitting well of late)

Gurriel massively stepped it up from 91 to 176 (highly doubt this is sustainable - 432 BABIP lol)

Tapia is doing fine (122 wRC but just as worse BB-K rate as Teo; serviceable as 4th OF)

 

---

I am still very irked (I get the risk of injury etc..., doesn't change my feelings towards it) that Vladdy stopped hustling for most groundballs.

He just concedes that the defense will make the play every time instead of forcing them to make the play.

Feel like when you are scuffling as an offense, you should try everything.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Solaxys

[Olerud363]

From last month (May 8 to June 7th) to this month (June 8 to July 7):

 

Ugly things:

Bichette wRC went down:147 to 90

Espinal went down: 133 to 68

Springer went down: 132 to 97; a fantastic 9 over the last 7 days

Moreno just trended way the f*** down (he needs more playing time to get used to the pitching)

 

Bad things:

Kirk has regressed from his 200 wRC+ to 159 this month (which seems more reasonable); 59 wRC+ in the last 7 games with a slash of 250/280/292 (0.572 OPS)

Guerrero went up (106 to 147) but his BB-K rate went below league average (0.42) from one of the best in the league in May (0.93)

Teo went up (71 to 137) but his BB-K rate is just dumpster fire (0.17)

 

OK/Good things:

Biggio has remained consistent around the 150 wRC+

Chapman consistent around 100 wRC+ (which is in line with his 2021 performance; not sure we'll see his 2018/2019 again, but he's been hitting well of late)

Gurriel massively stepped it up from 91 to 176 (highly doubt this is sustainable - 432 BABIP lol)

Tapia is doing fine (122 wRC but just as worse BB-K rate as Teo; serviceable as 4th OF)

 

---

I am still very irked (I get the risk of injury etc..., doesn't change my feelings towards it) that Vladdy stopped hustling for most groundballs.

He just concedes that the defense will make the play every time instead of forcing them to make the play.

Feel like when you are scuffling as an offense, you should try everything.

 

I think they've walked like once this road trip... This just reminds me of the 2006-2009 Jays. So many guys just up and down.

 

I'd say Bo is reminding me of Aaron Hill. However that's too much. Hill was wacky up and down. Look at his 2009 through 2012. Fine in 2009 and 2012. A .200 hitter with no power in 2011.

 

Bo is (shudder) more like Vernon Wells. Strikes out more but otherwise his last 2 seasons look just like a Vernon Wells 2 year run of 2006/2007 or 2003/2004.

[Laika]

I think they've walked like once this road trip... This just reminds me of the 2006-2009 Jays. So many guys just up and down.

 

I'd say Bo is reminding me of Aaron Hill. However that's too much. Hill was wacky up and down. Look at his 2009 through 2012. Fine in 2009 and 2012. A .200 hitter with no power in 2011.

 

Bo is (shudder) more like Vernon Wells. Strikes out more but otherwise his last 2 seasons look just like a Vernon Wells 2 year run of 2006/2007 or 2003/2004.

 

Vernon Wells is a great player to promote and own for six+ years. You just don't want him after his physical prime!

[Stangstag]

Agreed, I loved Vernon Wells as a kid. He was a solid player, just got paid way too much on his extension

[Stangstag]

Great comment found on Reddit:

 

Jays are playing so bad that Rogers decided to unplug everything and plug it back in to see if it would fix the team

[Dagagad]

You can blame the players but it’s the front office that put together an average bullpen and didn’t foresee the possibility that sometimes average can go to bad really easily in the bullpen AND you also have very little swing and miss. That’s betting a lot on projections.

 

Also, we’ve had decent injury luck. It’s on the front office that we can’t produce even back end spot starters that are competent. Other teams can do that.

 

In other words, if we had even the semblance of the ability to produce our own pitching, the hitters could be below projections (but still good) and it wouldn’t matter. At the end of the day, it’s all about pitching.

 

So, yea the players should perform better but the front office isn’t doing a super job of preparing for predictable eventualities.

 

I know I’ve bitched about the FO and pitching and not given them credit for hitting. We’ve done a great job on that side but I concentrate on pitching because it’s frankly more important. The ability to pull pitching out of your ass is the difference between the ‘good for a while and then bad’ good front offices and the ‘good for extended periods’ great front offices.

 

We have money so that gets extended out a bit for us, which is good.

[Brownie19]

You can blame the players but it’s the front office that put together an average bullpen and didn’t foresee the possibility that sometimes average can go to bad really easily in the bullpen AND you also have very little swing and miss. That’s betting a lot on projections.

 

Also, we’ve had decent injury luck. It’s on the front office that we can’t produce even back end spot starters that are competent. Other teams can do that.

 

In other words, if we had even the semblance of the ability to produce our own pitching, the hitters could be below projections (but still good) and it wouldn’t matter. At the end of the day, it’s all about pitching.

 

So, yea the players should perform better but the front office isn’t doing a super job of preparing for predictable eventualities.

 

You keep saying this. Who our of our primary bullpen arms doesn't have swing and miss stuff outside of Cimber? Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Merryweather, Pearson, Richards, Phelps, Borucki, Vasquez, Thornton. Full disclosure, I'm looking at K/9 rates, and not swinging strike percentage, but the bullpen they constructed had TONs of guys who've been striking out 9+ in past years.

[Laika]

You keep saying this. Who our of our primary bullpen arms doesn't have swing and miss stuff outside of Cimber? Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Merryweather, Pearson, Richards, Phelps, Borucki, Vasquez, Thornton. Full disclosure, I'm looking at K/9 rates, and not swinging strike percentage, but the bullpen they constructed had TONs of guys who've been striking out 9+ in past years.

 

I think it's true. Cimber actually gets more whiffs than guys like Mayza and Phelps doesn't he?

 

You could express this a different way. Toronto's pen lacks "stuff".

 

The only guys with elite stuff are Romano and the enigmatic Merryweather.

[Dagagad]

You keep saying this. Who our of our primary bullpen arms doesn't have swing and miss stuff outside of Cimber? Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Merryweather, Pearson, Richards, Phelps, Borucki, Vasquez, Thornton. Full disclosure, I'm looking at K/9 rates, and not swinging strike percentage, but the bullpen they constructed had TONs of guys who've been striking out 9+ in past years.

 

I’m looking at swinging strike percentage. That’s the literal definition of swing and miss. Do you make people swing and miss, thus causing a strike. What other definition is there?

 

Even if that’s not important, I don’t see how the plan of ‘have an average bullpen’ in the AL east was a credible plan.

 

I also think there is a s*** ton of evidence that we can’t produce our own bullpen pitchers. I don’t mean draft and produce them. I mean getting a guy and then making him a lot better. Or not even making him better but identifying ability that’s untapped. Or shaping a pitch differently. Or teaching everyone the same pitch. Or anything like that..

 

All you need is eyes to see over the last 6 years and you can tell we don’t do what the best teams do in this area.

 

What do we do about this? Nothing probably… we have a window of contention and we are good. I’m sure as s*** not blaming the players though because we can’t produce relievers or back end starters.

 

Yes, my conclusion is do nothing .. lol. Maybe change up the pitch dev team, I don’t know. These things are so tangled.

[Laika]

I still think COVID and the regulation differences between Canada and the USA have f***ed over Toronto in this regard.

 

If you are a depth SP or a reliever who may not get a guaranteed MLB deal... why would you want to sign with Toronto and have to worry about cross border stuff all season long? Your antivax wife can never come be with you in the City, blah blah blah.

 

Even if it's not a huge concern in fact, most players probably see it as a big deterrent.

[Dagagad]

I still think COVID and the regulation differences between Canada and the USA have f***ed over Toronto in this regard.

 

If you are a depth SP or a reliever who may not get a guaranteed MLB deal... why would you want to sign with Toronto and have to worry about cross border stuff all season long? Your antivax wife can never come be with you in the City, blah blah blah.

 

Even if it's not a huge concern in fact, most players probably see it as a big deterrent.

 

I hadn’t thought of that. I don’t remember seeing many indicators of us having this ability before that either but we have put a lot more resources into it behind the scenes since then. Maybe this is a bigger factor than I’m giving credit for.

[wilko]

Lawrence has pitched fairly well in the majors this year

 

This didn't age well.

[Olerud363]

Vernon Wells is a great player to promote and own for six+ years. You just don't want him after his physical prime!

 

Yup... Bo could easily put up a .300 30 100 season in 2023 or 24 and would be right where Wells was after Jays extended him in 2006.

[Olerud363]

I still think COVID and the regulation differences between Canada and the USA have f***ed over Toronto in this regard.

 

If you are a depth SP or a reliever who may not get a guaranteed MLB deal... why would you want to sign with Toronto and have to worry about cross border stuff all season long? Your antivax wife can never come be with you in the City, blah blah blah.

 

Even if it's not a huge concern in fact, most players probably see it as a big deterrent.

 

It's going to be a real mess if Trudeau requires an up to date booster. I mean you and your wife and your 5 year old and your dog could be double vaxed and boosted, and had bad covid once, and then got the mild covid, and now thinking your pretty immune, and the 2 days off + myocarditis from a booster every 6 months isn't optimal for you... so maybe you go to San Francisco, where even those sickos aren't making you boost every 6 months.

 

 

(baseball related as it pertains to the ability to attract anti-vax free agents, and even middle of the road politically free agents who only want 2 boosts, not regular boosts).

[Olerud363]

It's going to be a real mess if Trudeau requires an up to date booster. I mean you and your wife and your 5 year old and your dog could be double vaxed and boosted, and had bad covid once, and then got the mild covid, and now thinking your pretty immune, and the 2 days off + myocarditis from a booster every 6 months isn't optimal for you... so maybe you go to San Francisco, where even those sickos aren't making you boost every 6 months.

 

 

(baseball related as it pertains to the ability to attract anti-vax free agents, and even middle of the road politically free agents who only want 2 boosts, not regular boosts).

 

Liam Hendricks. Super-woke form what I am hearing. Maybe LaRusso doesn't put up with that s***? Needs to be traded.

 

blaahhh.. I guess maybe he has a fore-arm strain or something and it close to TJ time.

[Olerud363]

Liam Hendricks. Super-woke form what I am hearing. Maybe LaRusso doesn't put up with that s***? Needs to be traded.

 

blaahhh.. I guess maybe he has a fore-arm strain or something and it close to TJ time.

 

OK. He pitched again the last couple of days.

 

Liam

 

Hates guns

Loves pride

Spoke out against Supreme court

? Does he loves boosts?

? how far away from needing Tommy John?

 

Maybe he will be available for trade for peanuts, and no one but the most progressive country will take him due to terrible anti-American attitude (assuming he doesn't need Tommy John).

 

(This is all baseball related as we are discussing the political and vaccine views of a relievers and families and how it pertains to where they want to play, no non-baseball related feedback please, it's just like Grants 'how will Vax requirement play out" thread**).

[Brownie19]

I’m looking at swinging strike percentage. That’s the literal definition of swing and miss. Do you make people swing and miss, thus causing a strike. What other definition is there?

 

Even if that’s not important, I don’t see how the plan of ‘have an average bullpen’ in the AL east was a credible plan.

 

I also think there is a s*** ton of evidence that we can’t produce our own bullpen pitchers. I don’t mean draft and produce them. I mean getting a guy and then making him a lot better. Or not even making him better but identifying ability that’s untapped. Or shaping a pitch differently. Or teaching everyone the same pitch. Or anything like that..

 

All you need is eyes to see over the last 6 years and you can tell we don’t do what the best teams do in this area.

 

What do we do about this? Nothing probably… we have a window of contention and we are good. I’m sure as s*** not blaming the players though because we can’t produce relievers or back end starters.

 

Yes, my conclusion is do nothing .. lol. Maybe change up the pitch dev team, I don’t know. These things are so tangled.

 

Do you think swinging strike percentage is more important than K/9? Are pitchers who get strikeouts via swinging strikes better than pitchers who get more called strikeouts? Isn't the theory that you simply want strikeouts from your relivers because that means there's less balls in play? Why do we care if that strikeout is produced by swinging strikes instead of called strikes?

 

re: bold - can you show me this evidence? We took acquired Beniot, Grilli and Liriano in 2016 and they were lights out (after being s*** for their previous teams that year). 2017 had Dom Leone come out of nowhere to be dominant and we pulled Joe Smith back from the dead. 2018 we turned around Seunghwan Oh and acquired Ken Giles and turned him back into a stud (until we broke him). 2019 we got great innings out of Wilmer Font and we helped Daniel Hudson turn it around. 2020 was Dolis and Anthony Bass ( we didn't fix Bass, but he was solid for us). 2021 was the emergence of Romano and Mayza and we turned Cimber around.

 

What do the best teams do that we don't do? They turn failed starters into shut down bullpen arms? Is that what you're getting at? That's Pearson and Merryweather (and Romano) for us - I don't know how you blame anyone for what's happened to Pearson - essentially none of his injuries are arm/pitching related. I guess you can say we ought to have turned Anthony Kay isn't Andrew Miller by now?

[Ray]

I still think COVID and the regulation differences between Canada and the USA have f***ed over Toronto in this regard.

 

If you are a depth SP or a reliever who may not get a guaranteed MLB deal... why would you want to sign with Toronto and have to worry about cross border stuff all season long? Your antivax wife can never come be with you in the City, blah blah blah.

 

Even if it's not a huge concern in fact, most players probably see it as a big deterrent.

 

I remember there was a rumor in the offseason that the Jays were "very" interested in Tyler Mahle: https://www.si.com/mlb/bluejays/news/report-blue-jays-very-interested-in-reds-tyler-mahle-before-lockout

 

Turns out, he couldn't cross the border when the Reds came to Toronto because he's unvaxxed. In an alternate reality, we might've had Tyler Mahle instead of Yusei Kikuchi. I'm sure there's plenty more examples of how this f***ed us over, as much as the media tries to play up our home field advantage. Shapiro even outright said it's a much larger competitive disadvantage than advantage.

[Stangstag]

It's going to be a real mess if Trudeau requires an up to date booster. I mean you and your wife and your 5 year old and your dog could be double vaxed and boosted, and had bad covid once, and then got the mild covid, and now thinking your pretty immune, and the 2 days off + myocarditis from a booster every 6 months isn't optimal for you... so maybe you go to San Francisco, where even those sickos aren't making you boost every 6 months.

 

 

(baseball related as it pertains to the ability to attract anti-vax free agents, and even middle of the road politically free agents who only want 2 boosts, not regular boosts).

 

My friend went on a business trip to San Fran and the office required 3 vaccinations in order to be allowed inside… so they are pretty progressive there

[wilko]

I remember there was a rumor in the offseason that the Jays were "very" interested in Tyler Mahle: https://www.si.com/mlb/bluejays/news/report-blue-jays-very-interested-in-reds-tyler-mahle-before-lockout

 

Turns out, he couldn't cross the border when the Reds came to Toronto because he's unvaxxed. In an alternate reality, we might've had Tyler Mahle instead of Yusei Kikuchi. I'm sure there's plenty more examples of how this f***ed us over, as much as the media tries to play up our home field advantage. Shapiro even outright said it's a much larger competitive disadvantage than advantage.

+

 

Didn't Mahle go on the IL with shoulder issues?