Around Baseball 2022

[connorp]

It’s not like just guys that throw 100mph get babied nowadays. I mean the guys throwing low 90’s get treated with the kids gloves as well

 

It’s pretty much a universal thing and not linked to velocity

[John_Havok]

It’s not like just guys that throw 100mph get babied nowadays. I mean the guys throwing low 90’s get treated with the kids gloves as well

 

It’s pretty much a universal thing and not linked to velocity

 

Its because as Laika said earlier, some guys are throwing max effort and throwing 93. Velocity is not the factor, its whether they are throwing max effort or not. It's like youre assuming that pitchers who arent throwing 100mph are not throwing max effort, when the reality is that in todays game, the majority of pitchers are throwing max effort, they just cant all get to 100mph with said max effort.

 

And yes before you pick that apprt, of course there are other pitchers that do not throw max effort. There's no absolutes, just trends.

 

As for the talent pool thing, it is deeper. It's a fact of life in every sport that as the sport moves forward, the talent pool gets bigger, and the replacement level player gets better. The gap between the best and the worst gets smaller and smaller incrementally over time.

[connorp]

Kids are getting TJ and such younger and younger. College and starting to trend in hs now.. so that’s what I floated my opinion on. Kids that age I’m quite sure were giving max effort back then, just like they give max effort now.

 

It’s just really lazy to say guys back then didn’t give max effort and call it a day. Anyways, not much left to say at this point. It’s all just speculation but while I generally don’t side with the “back in my day” people, I don’t think you can shut down the babying thing so easily. Some of it could very well be about more risk aversion now that it’s a multi-billion dollar business

[jaysblue]

It's about the effort per pitch, not raw velocity

 

Marco Estrada throwing 91 = as much strain on his arm as Alek Manoah throwing 97

 

In past decades really good pitchers like Roy Halladay could essentially cruise through a game at 85% intensity

 

There are not many guys who can do that anymore simply because the game is more competitive... the vast majority of pitchers have to throw 100% intensity every pitch (hence they can't even cut it as full time MLB starters and they are only qualified to be relievers or openers). Even the starters who can cut it without going all out max effort every pitch probably have to throw at a wayyyy higher average intensity than the guys in past decades.

 

The guys who used to throw 300+ innings were probably throwing each pitch at like 70% physical intensity...

 

Can you provide facts that Roy Halladay and other elite arms in the 1990s or 2000s were throwing at 70% physical intensity?

[Laika]

Can you provide facts that Roy Halladay and other elite arms in the 1990s or 2000s were throwing at 70% physical intensity?

 

Read better

[Jimcanuck]

Intensity correlates with the rising K rate. Strikeout rate in 1988 was 15%, now it is 25%. This doesn't happen without putting significant additional stress on pitching arms, not just to throw fastballs but to throw fastballs and other pitches with higher spin rates.

 

Nolan Ryan's fastball was pretty straight.

 

It's not babying pitchers, it's managing the risk to valuable team assets.

[connorp]

Intensity correlates with the rising K rate. Strikeout rate in 1988 was 15%, now it is 25%. This doesn't happen without putting significant additional stress on pitching arms, not just to throw fastballs but to throw fastballs and other pitches with higher spin rates.

 

Nolan Ryan's fastball was pretty straight.

 

It's not babying pitchers, it's managing the risk to valuable team assets.

 

Yeah and outside of 1987, 30hr put you towards the top of the leaderboard many years I believe

[Dagagad]

I kind of want the Rays to lose tonight. It’s more important to build and maintain a cushion on them than it is to catch the yankees.

[Omar]

Intensity correlates with the rising K rate. Strikeout rate in 1988 was 15%, now it is 25%. This doesn't happen without putting significant additional stress on pitching arms, not just to throw fastballs but to throw fastballs and other pitches with higher spin rates.

 

Nolan Ryan's fastball was pretty straight.

 

It's not babying pitchers, it's managing the risk to valuable team assets.

 

K rates went up with the paradigm shift on bullpen usage.

[Jimcanuck]

K rates went up with the paradigm shift on bullpen usage.

 

Yes, that is part of the evolution, along with SP throwing max effort for fewer innings.

[Spanky__99]

Yanks sweep the Rays, getting 2 of 3 this weekend would be huge.

[jaysblue]

Intensity correlates with the rising K rate. Strikeout rate in 1988 was 15%, now it is 25%. This doesn't happen without putting significant additional stress on pitching arms, not just to throw fastballs but to throw fastballs and other pitches with higher spin rates.

 

Nolan Ryan's fastball was pretty straight.

 

It's not babying pitchers, it's managing the risk to valuable team assets.

 

Didn't Roy Halladay throw other pitches with high spin rates?

 

Also, how has Justin Verlander done throughout his career. He seems like a max effort guy and he's always good for 7 or 8 innings per start and is never babied.

[jaysblue]

It's really easy to cherry pick out the examples you want. Here, I'll try. How did Kerry Wood and Mark Prior's careers turn out? See how easy that is? You also can't really look at someone's career and say with any certainty "the inning limits and the proper usage of him have maximized his potential" because you can't directly compare the alternative.

 

It's easy for a fan to say "well Kershaw went on the IL anyway so obviously that strategy didn't work", but you and I have no idea what impacts that game had on him or would have had on him had he continued pitching. He went on the IL with pelvis/back injury 4 starts after that perfect game try....should we link that to the decision of his first start?

 

There are experts who study this for a living. I'm inclined to trust the decisions from the organizations that are spending millions on athletes, trying to win a championship. Even if it wouldn't have had any impact on Kershaw's health this season, there was risk that it would have. As the Dodgers, that risk isn't worth personal glory IMO.

 

Pitching mechanics played a huge role with Mark Prior, and yes alongside with pretty ridiculous usage of both him and Kerry Wood in their Chicago Cubs days, which I haven't at all supported or think anyone would with a young arm. Not like I suggested Kershaw throw 120-130 pitches or more. Big difference.

 

I guess when we talk about baseball we shouldn't criticize or question decisions made by the front office and management because me or neither you are experts. We shouldn't question Charlie Montoya hitting Tapia high up in the order because we aren't experts! I never said I was a medical expert or anything. But a veteran like Kershaw who at only 80 pitches after 7 innings with a perfect game intact, I don't think having him throw an extra 10-15 pitches would have made a difference in the big picture. Heck, he could have given up a hit to the first batter in the 8th after 1 pitch and boom you take him out. If Kershaw said to Dave Roberts, "Hey I'm done and can't go out for the eighth," then sure. Regardless, this already happened and I guess we'll both agree to disagree.

[Laika]

Didn't Roy Halladay throw other pitches with high spin rates?

 

Also, how has Justin Verlander done throughout his career. He seems like a max effort guy and he's always good for 7 or 8 innings per start and is never babied.

 

Verlander was famous for ramping up as games went along.

 

He used to start games throwing 93 and finish them sitting 99/100...

[BigCecil]

Yanks sweep the Rays, getting 2 of 3 this weekend would be huge.

 

I think we will. Yanks are just due for regression. They are solid but they aren't THIS good.

 

A lot will depend on the bats approach against their tough pitching.

[Stangstag]

I think we will. Yanks are just due for regression. They are solid but they aren't THIS good.

 

A lot will depend on the bats approach against their tough pitching.

 

Vlad gonna GO OFF this weekend

[Laika]

Verlander was famous for ramping up as games went along.

 

He used to start games throwing 93 and finish them sitting 99/100...

 

And you don't CARE about the anecdotes, duh. The questions are (generalizing to make the point):

 

A: If we have 1000 pitchers throw at 95% intensity (average) for 110 pitches per outing, how many would blow their arms out in the first six years of their career?

 

B: If we have 1000 pitchers throw at 80% intensity (average) for 110 pitches per outing, how many would blow their arms out in the first six years of their career?

 

C: If we have 1000 pitchers throw at 95% intensity (average) for 80 pitches per outing, how many would blow their arms out in the first six years of their career?

 

Assume the answer under A is 300 pitchers and under B it's only 150 pitchers.

 

The Verlanders and Nolan Ryans - the unicorns - are still going to exist and probably survive and buck all the trends under any paradigm of usage.

 

But if you need your pitchers to throw like demons to get people out and limiting their volume (option C) helps you keep them healthy during team control (say only 150 pitchers die during the first 6 years again, like the old days) then it might make economic sense to do that. It might make strategic sense to do that.

[BigCecil]

Vlad gonna GO OFF this weekend

 

Hope so. Even though we are at an excellent W pace, and its baseball, I came to TOR for all 4 O's gms expecting 3/4. Yesterday was a painful watch.

 

You know what they say about expectations? They are premeditated resentments lol.

[Stangstag]

Hope so. Even though we are at an excellent W pace, and its baseball, I came to TOR for all 4 O's gms expecting 3/4. Yesterday was a painful watch.

 

You know what they say about expectations? They are premeditated resentments lol.

 

Oooof yeah that sucks. At least the other 3 were good games?

[connorp]

And you don't CARE about the anecdotes, duh. The questions are (generalizing to make the point):

 

A: If we have 1000 pitchers throw at 95% intensity (average) for 110 pitches per outing, how many would blow their arms out in the first six years of their career?

 

B: If we have 1000 pitchers throw at 80% intensity (average) for 110 pitches per outing, how many would blow their arms out in the first six years of their career?

 

C: If we have 1000 pitchers throw at 95% intensity (average) for 80 pitches per outing, how many would blow their arms out in the first six years of their career?

 

Assume the answer under A is 300 pitchers and under B it's only 150 pitchers.

 

The Verlanders and Nolan Ryans - the unicorns - are still going to exist and probably survive and buck all the trends under any paradigm of usage.

 

But if you need your pitchers to throw like demons to get people out and limiting their volume (option C) helps you keep them healthy during team control (say only 150 pitchers die during the first 6 years again, like the old days) then it might make economic sense to do that. It might make strategic sense to do that.

 

This is seriously just all hooey balooey that you’re just tossing out there. You have no basis for assuming pitchers gave a lesser effort through games other than it was a weaker offensive environment. But that was THEIR time. Their level of competition.

 

The higher K rates can be ASSUMED in a number of ways. BP usage, result of hr% going up, the increased velocity and pitch breaks making hitting a much more challenging task, increased talent pool.. etc etc etc etc

 

But let’s just go with “they’re using more effort on their pitches than past generations. Then let’s all jump on Laila’s rod because the guy (sorry if that’s not your preferred pronoun) is like God put his ambassador of knowledge on Earth for the benefit of us all LOL

[Brownie19]

Holy f*** connorp, this shouldn't be such a difficult concept. It's pretty obvious.

[Laika]

This is seriously just all hooey balooey that you’re just tossing out there. You have no basis for assuming pitchers gave a lesser effort through games other than it was a weaker offensive environment. But that was THEIR time. Their level of competition.

 

The higher K rates can be ASSUMED in a number of ways. BP usage, result of hr% going up, the increased velocity and pitch breaks making hitting a much more challenging task, increased talent pool.. etc etc etc etc

 

But let’s just go with “they’re using more effort on their pitches than past generations. Then let’s all jump on Laila’s rod because the guy (sorry if that’s not your preferred pronoun) is like God put his ambassador of knowledge on Earth for the benefit of us all LOL

 

You could just listen to people talk about the sport. It's all pretty obvious if you have any brain cells.

 

Have fun in Morocco.

[connorp]

Holy f*** connorp, this shouldn't be such a difficult concept. It's pretty obvious.

 

We need some anecdotal evidence. Someone get asking some retired dudes on Twitter. Pretty sure they’re happy to respond to fans asking such things at this point in their lives

[connorp]

Can always get dudes talking about the game back then vs the game today. Someone should do it and get some good names to dish us the dirt. Would be cool to see

[Jimcanuck]

This is seriously just all hooey balooey that you’re just tossing out there. You have no basis for assuming pitchers gave a lesser effort through games other than it was a weaker offensive environment. But that was THEIR time. Their level of competition.

 

The higher K rates can be ASSUMED in a number of ways. BP usage, result of hr% going up, the increased velocity and pitch breaks making hitting a much more challenging task, increased talent pool.. etc etc etc etc

 

But let’s just go with “they’re using more effort on their pitches than past generations. Then let’s all jump on Laila’s rod because the guy (sorry if that’s not your preferred pronoun) is like God put his ambassador of knowledge on Earth for the benefit of us all LOL

 

C'mon man everyone knows pitchers throw with increased effort when they are a pen arm as opposed to a starting pitcher.

 

Pitchers can and do adjust the level of effort to the circumstances. If in 1970 an SP was expected to pitch 8 innings/game on average, the effort level would be adjusted accordingly. If they expectation today is 6 innings/game on average, the adjustment will be made.

 

So if an SP today is throwing with a level of effort commensurate with an expectation of 6 innings/90 pitches max and is dominant though 6/90 and the game is 6-0, well guess what, there might be a new pitcher for the 7th inning. It's not being babied, its protecting an asset (and increasing the team's chance of reaching the postseason, for that matter).

[Jimcanuck]

We need some anecdotal evidence. Someone get asking some retired dudes on Twitter. Pretty sure they’re happy to respond to fans asking such things at this point in their lives

 

anecdotal evidence is next to useless

[Spanky__99]

I think we will. Yanks are just due for regression. They are solid but they aren't THIS good.

 

A lot will depend on the bats approach against their tough pitching.

 

Sounds like a plan...

[connorp]

C'mon man everyone knows pitchers throw with increased effort when they are a pen arm as opposed to a starting pitcher.

 

Pitchers can and do adjust the level of effort to the circumstances. If in 1970 an SP was expected to pitch 8 innings/game on average, the effort level would be adjusted accordingly. If they expectation today is 6 innings/game on average, the adjustment will be made.

 

So if an SP today is throwing with a level of effort commensurate with an expectation of 6 innings/90 pitches max and is dominant though 6/90 and the game is 6-0, well guess what, there might be a new pitcher for the 7th inning. It's not being babied, its protecting an asset (and increasing the team's chance of reaching the postseason, for that matter).

 

I’m not completely trashing it, but you’re just taking leaps in your own mind. Who says someone knowing they were going to be throwing 140 pitches thought they shouldn’t give 100% effort, when they knew nothing of 100 pitches you get pulled. That’s a later evolution of the game. Your assumption they would approach the game different bc of your knowledge of the game today is faulty.

 

As for “babying pitchers”, it’s really just semantics between that and teams wanting to protect their $150m investment. I don’t think anyone believes teams do it solely to pamper a pitcher. However, the argument would be they’re overly cautious in their approach and doctors are known for being overly cautious

[connorp]

anecdotal evidence is next to useless

 

One could say the same about drawing your own conclusions from your own opinion

[connorp]

I mean we’re saying a pitcher today gives 100% max effort right? Well what if he ends up throwing 130-140 pitches? It’s rare but it happens. So did he not just give 100% max effort on 140 pitches? Lol. So why can’t we assume someone thought that was the norm 30 years ago and did it?