Wild Card Tiebreaker Blue Jays Scenarios

[InsideThePark]

My first thread, so forgive me if I screw something up. There are 8 possible scenarios which would become 5 if Seattle lost tonight which doesn't look likely at this point.

 

* - A starred scenario requires a priority selection of who goes in which spot in a multi-tiebreaker scenario based on head to head. Scenario listed is based on the teams making the common sense decision. If a team does something dumb when making a selection then the situation could change. The option will be listed beneath. To my knowledge in 2016 the results of these selections were known before the final games happened so the schedule would be set as soon as games ended so we should know this before tomorrow's games start.

 

1. Jays lose = Jays are out

 

2. Boston win + New York win = Jays are out

 

3. Jays win + Boston win + New York loss + Seattle loss = 1 tiebreaker. NYY @ TOR, Boston hosts the WC Game

 

4. *Jays win + Boston win + New York loss + Seattle win = 3 teams for 1 spot. SEA @ NYY, winner hosts TOR, Boston hosts the WC Game

 

Actual options: Team B @ Team A, Team C faces the winner on the road. Toronto picks 1st, New York picks 2nd. Seattle gets the leftover spot

 

5. Jays win + Boston loss + New York win + Seattle loss = 1 tiebreaker. TOR @ BOS, New York hosts the WC Game

 

6. *Jays win + Boston loss + New York win + Seattle win = 3 teams for 1 spot. TOR @ SEA, winner hosts BOS, New York hosts the WC Game

 

Actual options: Team B @ Team A, Team C faces the winner on the road. Boston picks first, then Seattle picks. Jays get the leftover spot

 

7. *Jays win + Boston loss + New York loss + Seattle loss = 3 teams for 2 spots. TOR @ BOS for WC1. Loser @ NYY for WC2.

 

Actual Options: Team B @ Team A. Winner is WC1. Loser @ Team C for WC2. Boston picks first, then Toronto. New York gets the leftover spot

 

8. *Jays win + Boston loss + New York loss + Seattle win = 4 teams for 2 spots. 2 separate tiebreaker games where winner gets a WC spot, loser is out. Jays host either New York or Seattle. New York decides whether they'd prefer to play @ Toronto or @Boston. Whichever team they don't choose hosts Seattle

 

Actual Options: Team B @ Team A, Team D @ Team C. Boston picks first, then Toronto, then New York. Seattle gets the leftover spot.

Edited October 3, 2021 by InsideThePark

[InsideThePark]

Scenarios from most preferable to least

 

Scenario 7 is the clear best case. 2 chances to get a WC spot, and possibility to host the WC game

Scenario 8 next best. Host a tiebreaker which could be against either NYY/SEA, and if it's against SEA we could host the WC game if TOR and NYY win

Scenario 3. Hosting a tiebreaker

Scenario 4. Only have to win 1 tiebreaker game and it's on the road against a team who played a tiebreaker the day before which could be Seattle

Scenario 5. 1 tiebreaker game, but it's a road game against Boston

Scenario 6. Have to win 2 tiebreaker games just to make a the WC game

Scenario 2. Miss the playoffs

Scenario 1. Miss the playoffs and have ourselves to blame

[MagicMac]

Yankees have to lose again today...

[G-Snarls]

Yankees have to lose again today...

 

And did they ever

[Dokken]

And did they ever

 

I think the person was referring to the Sunday game (game 162) as the one the Yankees "need to lose today". I really think that in the end, that Thursday game is going to be the main nail in the Jays' coffin for 2021. I feel bad for Ray, who had a great year otherwise, but he got exposed as a 2 pitch pitcher who could not spot his fastball in that 6th inning and was subsequently lit up. It reminded me of 2-pitch pitcher Marco Estrada being demolished by the Yankees in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

[jays4life19]

Thanks for the breakdown that was really helpful.

[Ehjays]

Yankees have to lose again today...

 

I also think Tampa would love these teams to wear each other out, so they will be all on board to do what they can.

[saskjayfan]

I think the person was referring to the Sunday game (game 162) as the one the Yankees "need to lose today". I really think that in the end, that Thursday game is going to be the main nail in the Jays' coffin for 2021. I feel bad for Ray, who had a great year otherwise, but he got exposed as a 2 pitch pitcher who could not spot his fastball in that 6th inning and was subsequently lit up. It reminded me of 2-pitch pitcher Marco Estrada being demolished by the Yankees in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

 

G-Snarls last name is Nostradame. He comes from a long lineage of prognosticators.

[harvey16]

Do tiebreaker games count towards regular season stats?

[CrackerJack]

Fun stuff! If I had to guess what will happen today, I'd predict scenario 4 (all teams win today, except NY.). Edited October 3, 2021 by CrackerJack

[saskjayfan]

Fun stuff! If I had to guess what will happen today, I'd predict scenario 4 (all teams win today, except NY.). Then that would be lots of flying for NY ... to Seattle and back ... but they'd get two kicks at the can fot that last WC.

 

number 8 is the most interesting for me. I'd love to know if the Yanks choose us or the Sox to play.

[jerb]

 

Shi Davidi

@ShiDavidi

 

The tentative schedule if tiebreakers are needed for AL Wild Card:

 

If a four-way tie, Jays host Seattle and Yankees go to Boston on Monday, winners meet Tuesday

 

If a three-way Tor, Bos, Sea tie with NYY as first wild card, Jays at Sea on Monday, winner hosts Bos on Tuesday

 

Shi Davidi

@ShiDavidi

 

If a three-way Tor, NYY, Sea tie with Bos as first wild card, Sea at NYY on Monday, winner hosts Jays on Tuesday

 

If a three way Tor, Bos, NYY tie for two wild card spots (Sea eliminated), Jays at Boston on Monday, loser at Yankees on Tuesday, winners meet Wednesday

 

Shi Davidi

@ShiDavidi

 

If there's a two-way tie for second wild card, it would be Tor @ Bos; or NYY at Tor; Sea @ Bos; or Sea @ NYY, with winner advancing to Wild Card game Tuesday against first spot winner

 

Shi Davidi

@ShiDavidi

 

If Jays are eliminated and there's a three-way tie for two wild card spots, NYY at Bos on Monday, loser at Seattle on Tuesday, winners meet Wednesday in wild card

[RobinThicc]

number 8 is the most interesting for me. I'd love to know if the Yanks choose us or the Sox to play.

Shi Davidi is reporting it like the Yankees have already chosen to avoid the Jays.

 

[CrackerJack]

number 8 is the most interesting for me. I'd love to know if the Yanks choose us or the Sox to play.

 

Yes! I think that the Yanks would lean towards playing the Sox at Fenway. Imagine the blasting they'd get from the NY media and their fans if they lost that game. haha

[Jimcanuck]

Yanks against Jays or Bosox, the probability of winning essentially the same. I don't know how TV advertising rates are determined (and other game revenue), but suspect Yanks choosing Bosox would be for $ reasons.

[G-Snarls]

Shi Davidi is reporting it like the Yankees have already chosen to avoid the Jays.

 

 

I would expect in order of THEIR preference the Yankees would want to face

 

1. Seattle

2. Boston

3. Toronto

 

And I'm sure they'd love to avoid facing Tampa more than anyone throughout the rest of the post season. Rays seem to have their number.

[glory]

number 8 is the most interesting for me. I'd love to know if the Yanks choose us or the Sox to play.

 

This is why I like the idea of teams getting to choose their opponents in the playoffs (assuming they follow through with the expanded playoff format). It's a much more fun way of determining first round matchups, and instantly builds rivalries/intrigue.

 

As far as today, as frustrating as the season has been at many points, we are at 162 with something to play for. Today is going to be nuts with all the games starting at the same time.

[RobinThicc]

[Jays24]

 

Wow... please let this happen

[King]

Does anyone else think the Rays are going to throw this game on purpose as payback for throwing at Kiermaier.

[Stangstag]

Does anyone else think the Rays are going to throw this game on purpose as payback for throwing at Kiermaier.

 

No... I would think its in their best interest to force the wildcard teams into a tiebreaker so they come limping into the ALDS

[Jays24]

Does anyone else think the Rays are going to throw this game on purpose as payback for throwing at Kiermaier.

 

I think they'd prefer to see teams play game 163 and then a wild card game to have their pitching all out of whack for their series.

[Stangstag]

They won’t throw but they also won’t sacrifice having everyone lined up and ready for Thursday Game 1 of the ALDS

[Masterbather]

I really wish our chances were better than garbage Washington kid against Chris Sale and Michael Wacha and a supporting cast of eventual backups versus the Yankees.

[Jays24]

I really wish our chances were better than garbage Washington kid against Chris Sale and Michael Wacha and a supporting cast of eventual backups versus the Yankees.

 

That's what happens when you screw up all those early season games. Biggio at 3rd, Panik at DH, pukeworthy bullpen, bullpen management and the list goes on. All reasons why this teams record is worse than their roster suggests.

 

Those are things that were in our control. If that doesn't scream to you that our manager is pathetic then I don't know what will.

[Kordesi]

That's what happens when you screw up all those early season games. Biggio at 3rd, Panik at DH, pukeworthy bullpen, bullpen management and the list goes on. All reasons why this teams record is worse than their roster suggests.

 

Those are things that were in our control. If that doesn't scream to you that our manager is pathetic then I don't know what will.

Yeah of course but look at it a different way - IF we make it through somehow then a lot of teams will be really worried facing us!

[Stangstag]

That's what happens when you screw up all those early season games. Biggio at 3rd, Panik at DH, pukeworthy bullpen, bullpen management and the list goes on. All reasons why this teams record is worse than their roster suggests.

 

Those are things that were in our control. If that doesn't scream to you that our manager is pathetic then I don't know what will.

 

I really hope they try Gurriel at 3B and Biggio at 2B next season. Much easier to upgrade a corner OF with a LH bat. Schwarber maybe.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I really hope they try Gurriel at 3B and Biggio at 2B next season. Much easier to upgrade a corner OF with a LH bat. Schwarber maybe.

 

Yes to Schwarber please.

[Dick_Pole]

Does anyone else think the Rays are going to throw this game on purpose as payback for throwing at Kiermaier.

 

No... I would think its in their best interest to force the wildcard teams into a tiebreaker so they come limping into the ALDS

 

The mind of a 15 year old still going through puberty with a developing brain versus the mind of an adult. Of course the Rays are not going to intentionally throw a game to spite a minor incident that happened at the cost of improving their chances in the ALDS. Then again the Rays are run by a bunch of incels so who really knows.

[Spanky99]

The mind of a 15 year old still going through puberty with a developing brain versus the mind of an adult. Of course the Rays are not going to intentionally throw a game to spite a minor incident that happened at the cost of improving their chances in the ALDS. Then again the Rays are run by a bunch of incels so who really knows.

 

Well... this line-up doesn't tell a team that's going to throw a game, the suggestion is absurd...

 

2B Brandon Lowe L

RF R. Arozarena R

SS W. Franco S

DH Nelson Cruz R

LF A. Meadows L

1B Ji-Man Choi L

C Mike Zunino R

3B Joey Wendle L

CF K. Kiermaier L