Some interesting home run numbers with the new baseball 2021

[G-Snarls]

Tom Verducci CNNSI, cut from an article he wrote yesterday about the Yankees offense

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/07/red-sox-yankees-the-opener

 

-

 

This is not a good year to rely on home runs. Don’t be mistaken: Home runs are great. They change games in an instant. Nothing promotes victory more than out-homering the opponent. But because MLB introduced a less lively baseball, you better diversify. The ball seems to be behaving exactly as MLB intended: it comes off the bat just as hard, but it doesn’t fly as far.

 

Opposite-field homers are down 26% from two years ago.

 

Opposite-Field Home Runs Per Game

 

Year HR Per Game

 

2019 - 0.45

 

2020 - 0.38

 

2021 - 0.33

 

Bottom-of-the-order hitters are not hitting cheap home runs—or much of anything:

 

Batting-Order Hitters 7–9, Nonpitchers

 

AB per HR

 

2019 - 29.4

 

2021 - 36.6

 

*Worst ever

 

The average exit velocity of a home run last year and in 2019 was 103.6. This year it is 104.8. It takes a little more to hit it out.

 

Take a fly ball hit between 103 and 104 mph—the average home run velocity in 2019. Struck the same way, the same fly ball is far less likely to be a homer this year than it was in '19:

 

Fly Balls Hit 103–104 mph

 

Year MLB HR Rate

 

2019 - 67.1%

 

2021 - 55.3%

Edited June 7, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Abomination]

Tom Verducci CNNSI, cut from an article he wrote yesterday about the Yankees offense

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/07/red-sox-yankees-the-opener

 

-

 

This is not a good year to rely on home runs. Don’t be mistaken: Home runs are great. They change games in an instant. Nothing promotes victory more than out-homering the opponent. But because MLB introduced a less lively baseball, you better diversify. The ball seems to be behaving exactly as MLB intended: it comes off the bat just as hard, but it doesn’t fly as far.

 

Opposite-field homers are down 26% from two years ago.

 

Opposite-Field Home Runs Per Game

 

Year HR Per Game

 

2019 - 0.45

 

2020 - 0.38

 

2021 - 0.33

 

Bottom-of-the-order hitters are not hitting cheap home runs—or much of anything:

 

Batting-Order Hitters 7–9, Nonpitchers

 

AB per HR

 

2019 - 29.4

 

2021 - 36.6

 

*Worst ever

 

The average exit velocity of a home run last year and in 2019 was 103.6. This year it is 104.8. It takes a little more to hit it out.

 

Take a fly ball hit between 103 and 104 mph—the average home run velocity in 2019. Struck the same way, the same fly ball is far less likely to be a homer this year than it was in '19:

 

Fly Balls Hit 103–104 mph

 

Year MLB HR Rate

 

2019 - 67.1%

 

2021 - 55.3%

 

Can't wait for the Yankees to move the fences in again to combat this.

[G-Snarls]

Can't wait for the Yankees to move the fences in again to combat this.

 

Or maybe they should have acquired a decent left handed bat...

[Virgil_Hiltz]

And Vlady is still killing the balls....imagine with last yrs balls on steroids what his numbers would be?v

[G-Snarls]

And Vlady is still killing the balls....imagine with last yrs balls on steroids what his numbers would be?v

 

He'd be Manny Ramirez

[Grant77]

He'd be Manny Ramirez

 

Manny never had a season as good as what Vlad Jr has done so far, which is crazy.

[max silver]

And Vlady is still killing the balls....imagine with last yrs balls on steroids what his numbers would be?v

 

Vladdy is also doing this despite a good chunk of the league's pitchers basically supergluing the ball to their fingers.

[Olerud363]

Manny never had a season as good as what Vlad Jr has done so far, which is crazy.

 

Manny had raw numbers as good... basically did this all of 1999 and 2000. The difference is that league norm was like .260 .340 .450 (edit that was my guess, looked it up and it was .275 .347 .439... in 1999 wow!). Vlad is doing this in a league that is hitting .237 .310 .390 or so.

[Spanky99]

Vladdy is also doing this despite a good chunk of the league's pitchers basically supergluing the ball to their fingers.

 

Scuffing the ball, pine tar, etc... has been around forever, pitchers are and were always looking for an edge. Though spider tack is indisputable on the RPM rage in stupid cheating... Vlad's a boss!!!

[TheHurl]

Love Petey's take today that the balls and rules switch up based on who is coming up for free agency.

[Spanky99]

Love Petey's take today that the balls and rules switch up based on who is coming up for free agency.

 

Sure was a ballsy claim, MLBPA Union leader doesn't have a sac that big.

[glory]

Alonso's take loses a lot of credibility when you see how much SPs were paid after 2019 (Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Wheeler, etc). If owners/Manfred colluded to depress the following season's strong FA SP market, but then proceeded to spend hundreds of millions on the pitchers anyway (including the biggest pitching contract ever), that seems to pour a lot of cold water on Alonso's point.

 

Theo Epstein in an interview said that the three most popular outcomes for fans during a game are a triple, double and SB in that order. I think deadening the ball is as simple as Manfred wanting to reduce home runs and increase BIP, and being naive enough to think that making the HR more difficult would cause hitters to change their approach. Intentionally deadening the balls so that Carlos Correa and Trevor Story get a bit less money is tinfoil hat material.

[Spanky99]

Alonso's take loses a lot of credibility when you see how much SPs were paid after 2019 (Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Wheeler, etc). If owners/Manfred colluded to depress the following season's strong FA SP market, but then proceeded to spend hundreds of millions on the pitchers anyway (including the biggest pitching contract ever), that seems to pour a lot of cold water on Alonso's point.

 

Theo Epstein in an interview said that the three most popular outcomes for fans during a game are a triple, double and SB in that order. I think deadening the ball is as simple as Manfred wanting to reduce home runs and increase BIP, and being naive enough to think that making the HR more difficult would cause hitters to change their approach. Intentionally deadening the balls so that Carlos Correa and Trevor Story get a bit less money is tinfoil hat material.

 

I agree, but they should've left the ball the f*** alone, originally. He f***ed baseball up, single-handedly. Now it's stuck in all this twisted plot for both sides. Enjoy ball this year... the fool's locked in this mess.

[G-Snarls]

Manny had raw numbers as good... basically did this all of 1999 and 2000. The difference is that league norm was like .260 .340 .450 (edit that was my guess, looked it up and it was .275 .347 .439... in 1999 wow!). Vlad is doing this in a league that is hitting .237 .310 .390 or so.

 

Manny also got busted TWICE for PED's of course...

 

And yeah, offensive numbers were so much better then compared to now it's CRAZY

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Don't want to hi-jack this thread but I think it still goes along with the general theme of "cheating". What is the reason why MLB have a rule about how far up a bat that a hitter can have pine tar? (see George Brett disallowed HR).

I can't see how or why it would really affect performance by having a better grip, in which they could get with their gloves. Surely they weren't concerned about pine tar getting on the balls and affecting the flight of the ball?

 

Just curious to hear opinions.

[Laika]

Don't want to hi-jack this thread but I think it still goes along with the general theme of "cheating". What is the reason why MLB have a rule about how far up a bat that a hitter can have pine tar? (see George Brett disallowed HR).

I can't see how or why it would really affect performance by having a better grip, in which they could get with their gloves. Surely they weren't concerned about pine tar getting on the balls and affecting the flight of the ball?

 

Just curious to hear opinions.

 

It's an antiquated rule. The intent of it was to prevent baseballs from getting ruined by pine tar, literally to save costs so the teams don't have to throw out and buy as many baseballs. This was all stated publicly around the Brett incident.