Off Day Discussion #1: Should Major League Baseball do something about the offense?

[Grant77]

You provided a link behind a paywall so I can't see it, but what you're suggesting doesn't jive with the stats P2F provided - which show essentially not pattern at all for BABIP. I'm confused.

 

The link from P2F shows the lowest BABIP's since 1992 are this year and last year. The article I had wasn't contradicting his stats. It's just to back up my claim that exit velocities are the highest we have ever seen. That should lead to a higher BABIP in theory.

 

Low BABIP and high exit velocity leads me to believe that the shift is having an impact on offense, but there could be other factors at play. Combine this with record high strikeouts and there are a lot less hits falling in.

[Krylian]

The shift if the equivalent of the trap back in late 90s/early 2000's hockey. Coaches will always find ways to beat the system...and that's really what they're suppose to do...but if it's at the cost of the viewers enjoyment, is that really a good thing?

[Brownie19]

The link from P2F shows the lowest BABIP's since 1992 are this year and last year. The article I had wasn't contradicting his stats. It's just to back up my claim that exit velocities are the highest we have ever seen. That should lead to a higher BABIP in theory.

 

Low BABIP and high exit velocity leads me to believe that the shift is having an impact on offense, but there could be other factors at play. Combine this with record high strikeouts and there are a lot less hits falling in.

 

Ah yes - I'm dumb. But as recently as 2016 and 2017 - when shifts were being used, we had BABIP's of .300, which is some of the highest we've had the past 20 years. 2019 was .298. I'd also take 2021 #'s with a grain of salt as we haven't hit the warm weather yet and pitchers typically start the year ahead of the batters. Even 2020 was a funky shortened season.

 

It's not like you can look at the list and say - well....that's when they started using the shift a lot more. The historical numbers are all over the place. The BABIP was lower in 1993 than it was in 2019. Was the defense just so good in 1993 that it made up for the lack of shifts? Or was everyone trying to avoid striking out so much that we ended up with a s*** ton more weak contact that lead to outs?

 

Is there a list of exit velocity by year? I have to think Bonds, Mac, Sosa and the steroid boys were hitting the ball the ball pretty hard in the early 2000's

[Slyfisher]

There's no incentive for hitters to bat for a high average when you're not rewarded as someone who hits home runs. When the industry starts valuing a high batting avg as someone who hits 30 home runs batters are going to swing hard and hope to run into 1.

[Deadpool]

There's no incentive for hitters to bat for a high average when you're not rewarded as someone who hits home runs. When the industry starts valuing a high batting avg as someone who hits 30 home runs batters are going to swing hard and hope to run into 1.

 

I doubt any serious industry player looks at either Avg or HRs in a vacuum, they'd be looking at more advanced stats like wRC+ (and likely many internal stats that aren't publicly available) to assess the value of players.

[Spanky99]

Is there a list of exit velocity by year? I have to think Bonds, Mac, Sosa and the steroid boys were hitting the ball the ball pretty hard in the early 2000's

 

Just the last 5 years I believe.

[Grant77]

Just the last 5 years I believe.

 

That's correct. I don't know that the top hitters have really changed much, but there has been a real emphasis on exit velocity league wide, even for average hitters like a Grichuk.

[Brownie19]

That's correct. I don't know that the top hitters have really changed much, but there has been a real emphasis on exit velocity league wide, even for average hitters like a Grichuk.

 

What do you mean by that? Grichuk's average exit velocity has dropped significantly from when he first arrive in the majors. 97th percentile in 2015. He's been in the mid 50's since 2019.

[Dick_Pole]

I'd ban the shift in a heartbeat. Nothing 'wrong' with it, but it promotes boring outcomes, so why not?

 

Instead of banning the shift, I'd ban players and coaches who weren't smart enough to make adjustments to...you know...NOT hit the ball to the place with 6 fielders? Every single time there's a shift for a left-handed hitter, bunt it up the third base line. Do it 100 times if you have to until the teams get the point.

[Dick_Pole]

1. Limit of 11 pitchers on roster

 

a) this would force pitchers, both starters and relievers to throw 93 instead of 101, in order to pace themselves and cover all the innings.

 

the extra roster spots would bring back Rance Mullinicks types who can hit .310 with 5 homers and hardly any strike outs in a platoon with a right handed contact hitter.

 

 

I like this, though teams will game the hell out of it by constantly recycling jobber pen arms from their AAAA squad.

[Olerud363]

I doubt any serious industry player looks at either Avg or HRs in a vacuum, they'd be looking at more advanced stats like wRC+ (and likely many internal stats that aren't publicly available) to assess the value of players.

 

 

One of the problems is the high strike-out approach leads to a higher wRC+ in many cases then a higher average low strike-out approach. Take a look at Jose Altuve's 2014 and 2019.

 

2014 .341 7 homers 50 strike-outs 137 wRC+

2019 .298 31 homers 80ish strike-out 139 wRC+

 

I just flipped through some teams, and noticed in 2006 Frank Cat was beat out by Eric Hinske, in 2015 Justin Smoak had a higher wRC+ then Ben Revere

 

Not sure how to show this in general, but the low k batting average guy gets beat out by the low average, high k power guy, assuming the latter guy get's a few extra walks by working deep into the count. So teams are optimizing that way.

[Brownie19]

Instead of banning the shift, I'd ban players and coaches who weren't smart enough to make adjustments to...you know...NOT hit the ball to the place with 6 fielders? Every single time there's a shift for a left-handed hitter, bunt it up the third base line. Do it 100 times if you have to until the teams get the point.

 

are you convinced the vast majority of the league is stupid?

[Brownie19]

Does anyone know much about the leagues in Japan or Korea?

 

Is the shift used heavily over there now? I don't think their velocity is nearly as high as in North America (but may be trending up?). Have any made any adjustments? I believe the ball they use slightly smaller...which you think would actually increase velocity and favor the pitcher more.

 

I wonder if they have any of the similar challenges that MLB faces. TTO rise, K% increase, less action, too many pitching changes, games taking too long.

[Grant77]

What do you mean by that? Grichuk's average exit velocity has dropped significantly from when he first arrive in the majors. 97th percentile in 2015. He's been in the mid 50's since 2019.

 

I just recalled Atkins citing exit velocity when trading for Grichuk. It's something that executives prioritize and know about now when that never used to be the case.

[Grant77]

What do you mean by that? Grichuk's average exit velocity has dropped significantly from when he first arrive in the majors. 97th percentile in 2015. He's been in the mid 50's since 2019.

 

I just recalled Atkins citing exit velocity when trading for Grichuk. It's something that executives prioritize and know about now when that never used to be the case.

[Orgfiller]

I just recalled Atkins citing exit velocity when trading for Grichuk. It's something that executives prioritize and know about now when that never used to be the case.

 

To be fair I don't think anyone in front office capacity wouldn't prefer guys that hit the ball hard. When the Angels extended David Fletcher it wasn't because they love how he hits really soft lobs over first base, but his elite defense and versatility + bat control. Grichuk hit the ball hard and was a decent defender in the OF with the ability to play CF when they traded for him, so obviously that's what they're going to praise about him.

 

All else being equal teams and most fans would always take the guy who hits the ball hard over speed-first or glove-first slap hitters who provide (what we think is) the same value.

[BlueRocky]

They’re testing some serious changes in the minors this season as outlined by article: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-announces-new-minor-league-rule-changes-for-2021/

 

The electronic strikezone down in single-A has really messed with young pitchers that don’t throw strikes, walk rates have sky rocketed in Low-A Southeast. This should in theory create a lot more players on-base and balls-in-play without any of the other drastic changes they’re trying, like increasing the base sizes from 15-by-15 inches to 18-by-18 inches in triple-A.

 

Removing the shift (double-A) + increase base sizes by 3 inches (triple-A) + electronic strikezone + pitch clocks (single-A) would easily jumpstart a new offensive era.

[DigitalRock]

I never even thought about this, I thought there was already a lot of offense, but that might be because I watch mainly Jays games lol. Robo umps alone would make a huge difference.

[glory]

They’re testing some serious changes in the minors this season as outlined by article: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-announces-new-minor-league-rule-changes-for-2021/

 

The electronic strikezone down in single-A has really messed with young pitchers that don’t throw strikes, walk rates have sky rocketed in Low-A Southeast. This should in theory create a lot more players on-base and balls-in-play without any of the other drastic changes they’re trying, like increasing the base sizes from 15-by-15 inches to 18-by-18 inches in triple-A.

 

Removing the shift (double-A) + increase base sizes by 3 inches (triple-A) + electronic strikezone + pitch clocks (single-A) would easily jumpstart a new offensive era.

 

I like all of those, and would be fine with limiting pick off attempts to increase SB's (which is apparently something they are testing) as well. The game needs more stolen bases, doubles, triples, and less time in between pitches. I think you accomplish a lot of those things with the rules changes they are testing. I really hope some, if not all, of those changes are added soon.

[Spanky99]

I like all of those, and would be fine with limiting pick off attempts to increase SB's (which is apparently something they are testing) as well. The game needs more stolen bases, doubles, triples, and less time in between pitches. I think you accomplish a lot of those things with the rules changes they are testing. I really hope some, if not all, of those changes are added soon.

 

Limiting pick offs is BS. The cat and mouse of pitching with runners on are fine, you can't just leave a guy out there naked, they'll run all over you? The rest are fine, surprised these are being done i the MILB, thought it was just Indy Leagues.

[Brownie19]

They’re testing some serious changes in the minors this season as outlined by article: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-announces-new-minor-league-rule-changes-for-2021/

 

The electronic strikezone down in single-A has really messed with young pitchers that don’t throw strikes, walk rates have sky rocketed in Low-A Southeast. This should in theory create a lot more players on-base and balls-in-play without any of the other drastic changes they’re trying, like increasing the base sizes from 15-by-15 inches to 18-by-18 inches in triple-A.

 

Removing the shift (double-A) + increase base sizes by 3 inches (triple-A) + electronic strikezone + pitch clocks (single-A) would easily jumpstart a new offensive era.

 

Do we have any sense of how accurate umpires are in the minors? Are they significantly shittier than ML umpires? or just as s***** as ML umpires?

[Spanky99]

Do we have any sense of how accurate umpires are in the minors? Are they significantly shittier than ML umpires? or just as s***** as ML umpires?

 

Likely the former, all the old pricks have their own strike zone Godammit! lol, seriously.

[Grant77]

Is there any evidence that MLB umpires have a significant bias towards pitchers? Simply missing ball and strike calls doesn't necessarily lead to fewer runs.

[Spanky99]

Is there any evidence that MLB umpires have a significant bias towards pitchers? Simply missing ball and strike calls doesn't necessarily lead to fewer runs.

 

Folk are talking about more pitches as a result, I believe there's little correlation in runs and missed calls, to worry about. The PS is a joke.

[Deadpool]

Is there any evidence that MLB umpires have a significant bias towards pitchers? Simply missing ball and strike calls doesn't necessarily lead to fewer runs.

 

I don't actually care what the end result is, even if it leads to even more pitcher dominance. I JUST WANT ACCURACY, DAMMIT! I hate that at bats (and whole games) can turn on the umpire making a mistake.

[gruber92]

Limiting pick offs is BS. The cat and mouse of pitching with runners on are fine, you can't just leave a guy out there naked, they'll run all over you? The rest are fine, surprised these are being done i the MILB, thought it was just Indy Leagues.

 

I agree that you can't limit the amount of pickoff attempts. What I would like to see is the rule for LHP to change where the pitcher's knee can't cross the rubber, along with the foot.

[Laika]

Here is my new solution to the ump vs. robo-ump problem

 

1: Get the tech to the point where it is laser accurate like in tennis line calls

2: Let the pitcher and the batter challenge umpire ball/strike calls but they have to do it INSTANTLY, like within five seconds, and the umpire can refuse a challenge if they think the player took a signal from the dugout

3: If the pitcher/batter loses the challenge they get an extra ball/strike against them!

4: If that pitch already decided the plate appearance by walk or strikeout there would have to be a different consequence. One penalty for being wrong is a ball/strike penalty against the next plate appearance for the team. Another option is that all PA deciding calls are just automatically reviewed by the robot.

 

This would work swimmingly if and only if the technology can do this muy rapido

[BlueRocky]

I’d imagine if you can challenge strike calls with an electronic strike zone, Biggio’s WOBA would get a huge uptick from walks and pitchers forced to throw in the zone. We’d also see more players join Mike Trout in the 20% BB club.

[gruber92]

Here is my new solution to the ump vs. robo-ump problem

 

1: Get the tech to the point where it is laser accurate like in tennis line calls

2: Let the pitcher and the batter challenge umpire ball/strike calls but they have to do it INSTANTLY, like within five seconds, and the umpire can refuse a challenge if they think the player took a signal from the dugout

3: If the pitcher/batter loses the challenge they get an extra ball/strike against them!

4: If that pitch already decided the plate appearance by walk or strikeout there would have to be a different consequence. One penalty for being wrong is a ball/strike penalty against the next plate appearance for the team. Another option is that all PA deciding calls are just automatically reviewed by the robot.

 

This would work swimmingly if and only if the technology can do this muy rapido

 

That won't happen because all close calls will be challenged instantly, because why not? If the pitch calling technology is in place and proves to be 100% accurate, then it'll be either full on robotic pitch calling or just keep it the way it is. I don't think cross polinating the two will work.

[Laika]

That won't happen because all close calls will be challenged instantly, because why not? If the pitch calling technology is in place and proves to be 100% accurate, then it'll be either full on robotic pitch calling or just keep it the way it is. I don't think cross polinating the two will work.

 

No, the penalty will prevent frivolous challenges. If you challenge a borderline strike 2 call and you were wrong, then it's automatic strike three and you've taken the bat out of your own hands. Players will likely only challenge the really bad calls. I think.

 

I mean you trial it in AAA first anyway.