General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[RustyTrombone]

He is right now

 

He's also been a walk machine at times for years

 

Ryu was better when he signed his first FA. His issue was injury history.

 

Yea Ray has some red flags but if this is the real Robbie Ray now he projects to be better than Ryu. Id be willing to be that it is.

[BigCecil]

This is the issue with letting this year go as a push. Resigning him you chew up a lot of what we save when Marcus leaves. He is worth 1.5 fWAR so far (BR has him at 3.3?) He is has been really good but concerned about the long balls he gives up and how bad the 3rd time though numbers are. He will rarely go more than 5-6 as a result, which is fine, if you had a stud pen. Signing him would be a no brainer if he had a more effective off speed option. Maybe thats upside he has left?

[Laika]

This is the issue with letting this year go as a push. Resigning him you chew up a lot of what we save when Marcus leaves. He is worth 1.5 WAR so far. He is has been really good but concerned about the long balls he gives up and how bad the 3rd time though numbers are. He will rarely go more than 5-6 as a result, which is fine, if you had a stud pen. Signing him would be a no brainer if he had a more effective off speed option. Maybe thats upside he has left?

 

3.3 bWAR right now.

[BigCecil]

3.3 bWAR right now.

 

I just looked that up and changed my post lol. then saw your post. That puts him 9th in leaderboard. why such a difference between fWAR? Makes a huge difference in the conversation about what he is worth.

[Laika]

I just looked that up and changed my post lol. then saw your post. That puts him 9th in leaderboard. why such a difference between fWAR? Makes a huge difference in the conversation about what he is worth.

 

bWAR is basically ERA with adjustments for the quality of defense behind the pitcher, quality of opposition, and parks pitched in. So ERA centric. fWAR is FIP based. Any time a P has a big difference between ERA and FIP their fWAR and bWAR will likely be divergent.

[BigCecil]

bWAR is basically ERA with adjustments for the quality of defense behind the pitcher, quality of opposition, and parks pitched in. So ERA centric. fWAR is FIP based. Any time a P has a big difference between ERA and FIP their fWAR and bWAR will likely be divergent.

 

Which is most reflective of value in your view in the case of Ray?

[Laika]

Which is most reflective of value in your view in the case of Ray?

 

Tough call. I'd probably just split the difference. I could buy that he's been a bit lucky on LOB% and BABIP but you also would expect a low BABIP with how he's pitching (lots of pop ups due to spinny fastballs up in the zone) and you might also expect a higher than normal LOB% because he is striking out so many guys without getting in walk trouble.

[InvincibleTiger]

How would you set up the rotation after the break? Do you really want Matz and Stripling to face the Red Sox?

[Laika]

How would you set up the rotation after the break? Do you really want Matz and Stripling to face the Red Sox?

 

Current order would be Matz-Ryu-Manoah-Strip-Ray

 

If that order is kept in tact then we would see:

 

TEX Matz

TEX Ryu

TEX Manoah

BOS Strip

BOS Ray

BOS Matz

NYM Ryu

NYM Manoah

NYM Strip

BOS Ray

BOS Matz

BOS Ryu

BOS Manoah

 

All I would do is shuffle it a bit so Ryu lines up against Boston twice and Matz does only one. Probably just flip Matz and Ryu.

 

It doesn't really matter though. Start of August there are 7 games in a row against Cleveland and Boston. Those are all huge games. You can't really help but have all of your guys face those teams multiple times.

[gruber92]

Current order would be Matz-Ryu-Manoah-Strip-Ray

 

If that order is kept in tact then we would see:

 

TEX Matz

TEX Ryu

TEX Manoah

BOS Strip

BOS Ray

BOS Matz

NYM Ryu

NYM Manoah

NYM Strip

BOS Ray

BOS Matz

BOS Ryu

BOS Manoah

 

All I would do is shuffle it a bit so Ryu lines up against Boston twice and Matz does only one. Probably just flip Matz and Ryu.

 

It doesn't really matter though. Start of August there are 7 games in a row against Cleveland and Boston. Those are all huge games. You can't really help but have all of your guys face those teams multiple times.

 

I would start Ray Friday night and keep him on his regular days off. He will also line up to pitch the final game vs Boston. Keep him regular while he's rolling.

[G-Snarls]

I would start Ray Friday night and keep him on his regular days off. He will also line up to pitch the final game vs Boston. Keep him regular while he's rolling.

 

There's an off day on the 22nd so you can finagle it a bit to have our best against Boston

 

Then again maybe we have a better SP than Matz added by that time

 

(FTR I suspect they improve the bullpen further but probably don't add a SP)

[BlueRocky]

 

Semien’s facial hair grew really fast

[keggy]

How would you set up the rotation after the break? Do you really want Matz and Stripling to face the Red Sox?

 

Ryu - hasn't pitched since Wed, max out his starts

Ray - Regular rest

Stripling - Break up the lefties

Matz - See above

Manoah - reduce innings load

[InvincibleTiger]

If Manoah can shed 15-20 lbs in the offseason, you think he could have an uptick in velocity? Right now he's 6'6, 260 and a Syndergaard is 6'6, 242.

[Laika]

If Manoah can shed 15-20 lbs in the offseason, you think he could have an uptick in velocity? Right now he's 6'6, 260 and a Syndergaard is 6'6, 242.

 

I don't see any obvious reason why pure weight loss would help him add velocity.

 

I'm not so sure he's even that fat under his uniform.

[Dr. Dinger]

If Manoah can shed 15-20 lbs in the offseason, you think he could have an uptick in velocity? Right now he's 6'6, 260 and a Syndergaard is 6'6, 242.

 

Maybe, but Syndergaard is like 6% body fat and Manoah is like 40%.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm not so sure he's even that fat under his uniform.

 

R u dumn?

[Laika]

R u dumn?

 

People come in all shapes and sizes. Maybe he's just very thick and meaty.

[Stangstag]

If Manoah can shed 15-20 lbs in the offseason, you think he could have an uptick in velocity? Right now he's 6'6, 260 and a Syndergaard is 6'6, 242.

 

I wouldn’t assume weight loss would matter all that much for a pitcher

[Scion]

I don't see any obvious reason why pure weight loss would help him add velocity.

 

I'm not so sure he's even that fat under his uniform.

 

Less weight would likely allow him to rotate more explosively. In theory that could lead to some more velo.

[Grant77]

I wouldn’t assume weight loss would matter all that much for a pitcher

 

Losing weight reduced velocity for CC Sabathia

[Laika]

Less weight would likely allow him to rotate more explosively. In theory that could lead to some more velo.

 

I could see that. The ideal body for pitching is someone who is in shape, obviously. But he's pitched fat for a while so it's probably a bad idea for him to change his body drastically. Tighten it up a bit, sure.

[Stangstag]

I could see that. The ideal body for pitching is someone who is in shape, obviously. But he's pitched fat for a while so it's probably a bad idea for him to change his body drastically. Tighten it up a bit, sure.

 

He should put on 40 pounds of muscle like Sanchez did

[Krylian]

Losing weight reduced velocity for CC Sabathia

 

Didn't gaining weight reduce velocity for Brett Cecil?

[Grant77]

Didn't gaining weight reduce velocity for Brett Cecil?

 

I remember he emerged as a great young starter and then experienced a velocity dip the next season, prompting a move to the bullpen. You're thinking he got fat, or was it adding muscle?

[Stangstag]

I remember he emerged as a great young starter and then experienced a velocity dip the next season, prompting a move to the bullpen. You're thinking he got fat, or was it adding muscle?

 

He was definitely chubby as a starter

[Jimcanuck]

He was definitely chubby as a starter

 

Yes, and there was a quite chubby period of time that was blamed for poor results, after which he got in better shape and returned better results.

[Dick_Pole]

My rebuttal to this is that fat guys on the mound tend to have more longevity. The fat provides cushioning for all the breakable parts in the arm. My evidence is based on Bartolo Colon and David Wells having long and fruitful careers. Eat up, Manoah!

[Bluebombers]

David wells name popped into my head soon as I read your first sentence Dick. I'm sure there are few others like he, got me thinking now. Seems like lots of players muscle- bound and injury prone.

[RobinThicc]

 

Some info on the Blue Jays to play in Toronto again