WSCS ... Rays @ Dodgers! GO RAYSGO!!!

[HealthDream007]

And with that I'm done talking about it. Not trying to be mean or anything, but I feel the topic has been beaten to death now.

[HealthDream007]

Contgrats to the Dodgers for winning the WS. So much heartbreak year after year, it's great they finally got it done. And with that, the 2020 Season comes to a close. I hope you guys had fun (I know I did), and I'll see you guys next year.

[Spanky99]

Welp...

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/10/28/justin-turner-dodgers-celebration-covid-19-world-series/3759614001/

 

[Spanky99]

[Olerud363]

Justin Turner may have just cost the Blue Jays another year in Toronto.

 

When Shapiro goes to the government trying to work out a deal for next year how can he possibly convince them that incoming players will abide by any rules?

[connorp]

Justin Turner may have just cost the Blue Jays another year in Toronto.

 

When Shapiro goes to the government trying to work out a deal for next year how can he possibly convince them that incoming players will abide by any rules?

 

As Toronto (and a lot of its fans) are PR concerned ninnies, it also means any remote shot of him signing with the Jays is probably gone. He’s the Covid super spreader now

[Laika]

As Toronto are PR concerned ninnies

 

This is a lazy and stupid criticism. Toronto is just a normal, holistic organization. They make rational decisions informed by data and all relevant information. They actually do not care about PR, at least not before other factors, in a lot of ways... see some of the constant criticism of the team for lineup decisions, pitching decisions etc. The team really does not give a s*** what a huge section of their fanbase thinks.

 

I think it's also irrelevant. Most people are going to see what happened with JT as a failure of MLB and the organization. The player was put into an impossible situation. This isn't even close to Clevinger/Plesac hitting the town, not telling their team, and lying about it.

[wilko]

Congrats to the Dodgers for winning what they should have won playing the *Astros!

 

I'm sure the players are also thanking this guy:

 

[RobinThicc]

Lol @ Turner.

 

Just a brutal decision to walk back out there. Gotta think MLB is gonna lay the hammer down on him.

 

Glad Kershaw got a ring.

[glory]

Turner didn't test positive twice. According to Passan, he tested inconclusive on Monday, which MLB apparently found out during the 2nd inning of last night's game, and then the samples from Tuesday arrived which showed a positive (which is why he was pulled during the game). Why it took so long for Monday's result to come, much less yesterday's, is the question.

 

I wouldn't rule out a false positive especially since they were in a bubble with family already there, so seems like a low(er) risk situation unless he and/or his family left the bubble for some reason and brought it back, or if they got too close to some of the fans in attendance. If the positive is legit, then any potential spread likely would have happened even if he left the stadium and went back to the hotel to quarantine after the 7th inning. He was with his teammates all day, for many weeks, and played more than half the game already.

 

He definitely shouldn't have gone back out though. Should have left and quarantined immediately after MLB pulled him out of the game. Bad look for him and the Dodgers (and MLB too, for the timing of the test results).

[Brownie19]

Congrats to the Dodgers for winning what they should have won playing the *Astros!

 

I'm sure the players are also thanking this guy:

 

 

Enough with this narrative FFS. Cash did the same thing successfully in Game 7 of the NLCS v. the Astros and in Game 2 of the World Series - which was essentially a 'must win' as teams who win the first 2 games go on to win the WS like 88% of the time. Ripping him without acknowledging this is and/or acknowledging that no plan, no stat, no gut feeling, no eye test are 100% accurate is just f***ing stupid. The best team won the series. That should be the narrative.

[Spanky99]

Welp...

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/10/28/justin-turner-dodgers-celebration-covid-19-world-series/3759614001/

 

 

Turner didn't test positive twice. According to Passan, he tested inconclusive on Monday, which MLB apparently found out during the 2nd inning of last night's game, and then the samples from Tuesday arrived which showed a positive (which is why he was pulled during the game). Why it took so long for Monday's result to come, much less yesterday's, is the question.

 

I wouldn't rule out a false positive especially since they were in a bubble with family already there, so seems like a low(er) risk situation unless he and/or his family left the bubble for some reason and brought it back, or if they got too close to some of the fans in attendance. If the positive is legit, then any potential spread likely would have happened even if he left the stadium and went back to the hotel to quarantine after the 7th inning. He was with his teammates all day, for many weeks, and played more than half the game already.

 

He definitely shouldn't have gone back out though. Should have left and quarantined immediately after MLB pulled him out of the game. Bad look for him and the Dodgers (and MLB too, for the timing of the test results).

 

Yeah, that link above basically is the timeline as s*** went down,

[wilko]

Enough with this narrative FFS. Cash did the same thing successfully in Game 7 of the NLCS v. the Astros and in Game 2 of the World Series - which was essentially a 'must win' as teams who win the first 2 games go on to win the WS like 88% of the time. Ripping him without acknowledging this is and/or acknowledging that no plan, no stat, no gut feeling, no eye test are 100% accurate is just f***ing stupid. The best team won the series. That should be the narrative.

 

[Brownie19]

Major League Baseball said in a statement Wednesday that it is "beginning a full investigation" into Justin Turner's postgame actions on Tuesday night.

Turner was pulled from the Dodgers' World Series clincher after seven innings once the team was alerted that he had tested positive for COVID-19, but the veteran third baseman decided to take part in portions of the on-field celebration anyway, at one point removing his mask for a team photo. Turner "chose to disregard the agreed-upon joint protocols and the instructions he was given regarding the safety and protection of others," reads the statement. "While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk. When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply ... The Commissioner's Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual." It's possible Turner could be facing some sort of fine or suspension.

 

36 year old that just reached the pinnacle of everything he's worked so hard for. Give the damage had probably already been done - I can't say I blame him and highly doubt he gives 2 shits about facing a fine or suspension.

[King]

Major League Baseball said in a statement Wednesday that it is "beginning a full investigation" into Justin Turner's postgame actions on Tuesday night.

Turner was pulled from the Dodgers' World Series clincher after seven innings once the team was alerted that he had tested positive for COVID-19, but the veteran third baseman decided to take part in portions of the on-field celebration anyway, at one point removing his mask for a team photo. Turner "chose to disregard the agreed-upon joint protocols and the instructions he was given regarding the safety and protection of others," reads the statement. "While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk. When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply ... The Commissioner's Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual." It's possible Turner could be facing some sort of fine or suspension.

 

36 year old that just reached the pinnacle of everything he's worked so hard for. Give the damage had probably already been done - I can't say I blame him and highly doubt he gives 2 shits about facing a fine or suspension.

 

I can blame him. It was one of the most selfish things I've ever seen. A COVID super spreader event happening on baseballs biggest stage before our very eyes. Regardless of whether any gets COVID from it or not, I don't really care. The optics of it are also terrible. Lots of kids/people look up to these guys - not a good example!

 

And I don't agree with the "damage had already been done" mindset. Always a chance that he infects someone else as a result of going back out on the field... hugging everyone, who the f*** else knows what he did in the locker room after the game.

 

Seemed like no one on the team gave a f*** even though they have multiple people who are at high risk, so I guess that's whatever. Feel bad for any MLB employees who were on the field and had to be subject to that however.

[Abomination]

Feel bad for any MLB employees who were on the field and had to be subject to that however.

 

Not to mention the security personnel.

[glory]

[Spanky99]

I can blame him. It was one of the most selfish things I've ever seen. A COVID super spreader event happening on baseballs biggest stage before our very eyes. Regardless of whether any gets COVID from it or not, I don't really care. The optics of it are also terrible. Lots of kids/people look up to these guys - not a good example!

 

And I don't agree with the "damage had already been done" mindset. Always a chance that he infects someone else as a result of going back out on the field... hugging everyone, who the f*** else knows what he did in the locker room after the game.

 

Seemed like no one on the team gave a f*** even though they have multiple people who are at high risk, so I guess that's whatever. Feel bad for any MLB employees who were on the field and had to be subject to that however.

 

On a positive note, he was with everyone, a oust set for you?

[saskjayfan]

Enough with this narrative FFS. Cash did the same thing successfully in Game 7 of the NLCS v. the Astros and in Game 2 of the World Series - which was essentially a 'must win' as teams who win the first 2 games go on to win the WS like 88% of the time. Ripping him without acknowledging this is and/or acknowledging that no plan, no stat, no gut feeling, no eye test are 100% accurate is just f***ing stupid. The best team won the series. That should be the narrative.

 

You should educate the MLB radio hosts because pulling Snell was pretty much all they talked about...lol. I had to drive out of town for work, so I listened to multiple different guests and hosts talk about it.

 

The interesting thing is there were a couple different angles this was attacked. Jake Odorizzi was on early and he used the old eye test. He said it was the most dominant he had ever seen Snell. David Price was on later, and although he didn't play with Snell he said he has tuned in to watch many of his games over the years and he also said it was the most dominant he had ever seen Snell.

 

Then the hosts were using some statistical analysis. The obvious 9 Ks in 5.2 with 0 walks and 73 pitches. Then they talked about the 16 swinging strikes. They also talked about the fact there were 9 balls put in play from Snell. Snell threw something like 30 fastballs and 0 fastballs were put in play. Only 2 of the balls put in play were sharp contact.

 

They talked about swinging strike plus called strike percentage. Swinging, obviously good and called good because you're crossing up guys or painting. Apparently 25% is good, 30% and you're dealing and the night Degrom was dealing earlier in the year and got 19 wiffs in his best start of the season he was at 40% that night. Snell's swinging strike plus called strike percentage was 48% last night, which was the highest of any game post season or regular season game pitched by any starter this season.

 

Guys will put up zeros and be getting lucky, but if you look at the advanced stats, the spray chart the eye test of velocity and movement, Snell was arguably pitching one of the finest games a starter has thrown all season. Tampa simply does not believe in a guy being "ON". There's no such thing in their world. If you can't give a guy a little more rope given what Snell did last night, you never will. It's not like the Dodgers were swinging through cookies, they were getting dominated.

[Jimcanuck]

You should educate the MLB radio hosts because pulling Snell was pretty much all they talked about...lol. I had to drive out of town for work, so I listened to multiple different guests and hosts talk about it.

 

The interesting thing is there were a couple different angles this was attacked. Jake Odorizzi was on early and he used the old eye test. He said it was the most dominant he had ever seen Snell. David Price was on later, and although he didn't play with Snell he said he has tuned in to watch many of his games over the years and he also said it was the most dominant he had ever seen Snell.

 

Then the hosts were using some statistical analysis. The obvious 9 Ks in 5.2 with 0 walks and 73 pitches. Then they talked about the 16 swinging strikes. They also talked about the fact there were 9 balls put in play from Snell. Snell threw something like 30 fastballs and 0 fastballs were put in play. Only 2 of the balls put in play were sharp contact.

 

They talked about swinging strike plus called strike percentage. Swinging, obviously good and called good because you're crossing up guys or painting. Apparently 25% is good, 30% and you're dealing and the night Degrom was dealing earlier in the year and got 19 wiffs in his best start of the season he was at 40% that night. Snell's swinging strike plus called strike percentage was 48% last night, which was the highest of any game post season or regular season game pitched by any starter this season.

 

Guys will put up zeros and be getting lucky, but if you look at the advanced stats, the spray chart the eye test of velocity and movement, Snell was arguably pitching one of the finest games a starter has thrown all season. Tampa simply does not believe in a guy being "ON". There's no such thing in their world. If you can't give a guy a little more rope given what Snell did last night, you never will. It's not like the Dodgers were swinging through cookies, they were getting dominated.

 

Post of the year.

[connorp]

Reported

 

Re-read your post and man up. Classic bait job.

You offered up an opinionated, woke take on the Covid situation and someone with a differing opinion called you out on it. He could of called you a “drama queen” instead but in either case, you basically solicited the response.

 

It’s like if Trump was in sports news somehow and somehow you let it be known how horrible he is, and then someone responded that didn’t agree.

[connorp]

Ah they got rid of the exchange lol

[King]

Re-read your post and man up. Classic bait job.

You offered up an opinionated, woke take on the Covid situation and someone with a differing opinion called you out on it. He could of called you a “drama queen” instead but in either case, you basically solicited the response.

 

It’s like if Trump was in sports news somehow and somehow you let it be known how horrible he is, and then someone responded that didn’t agree.

 

There's a difference between offering a differing opinion and going right to the insults. Board rules are in place for a reason, Connor. I would suggest you read them.

[BTS]

Re-read your post and man up. Classic bait job.

You offered up an opinionated, woke take on the Covid situation and someone with a differing opinion called you out on it. He could of called you a “drama queen” instead but in either case, you basically solicited the response.

 

It’s like if Trump was in sports news somehow and somehow you let it be known how horrible he is, and then someone responded that didn’t agree.

 

King managed to offer an opinion on one of the biggest stories (sadly) to come out of the world series without making it political or attacking another poster. It really shouldn't be that difficult.

[L54]

99.98%

 

Is that a lot or no?

[Jimcanuck]

99.98%

 

Is that a lot or no?

 

230,000

[Brownie19]

You should educate the MLB radio hosts because pulling Snell was pretty much all they talked about...lol. I had to drive out of town for work, so I listened to multiple different guests and hosts talk about it.

 

The interesting thing is there were a couple different angles this was attacked. Jake Odorizzi was on early and he used the old eye test. He said it was the most dominant he had ever seen Snell. David Price was on later, and although he didn't play with Snell he said he has tuned in to watch many of his games over the years and he also said it was the most dominant he had ever seen Snell.

 

Then the hosts were using some statistical analysis. The obvious 9 Ks in 5.2 with 0 walks and 73 pitches. Then they talked about the 16 swinging strikes. They also talked about the fact there were 9 balls put in play from Snell. Snell threw something like 30 fastballs and 0 fastballs were put in play. Only 2 of the balls put in play were sharp contact.

 

They talked about swinging strike plus called strike percentage. Swinging, obviously good and called good because you're crossing up guys or painting. Apparently 25% is good, 30% and you're dealing and the night Degrom was dealing earlier in the year and got 19 wiffs in his best start of the season he was at 40% that night. Snell's swinging strike plus called strike percentage was 48% last night, which was the highest of any game post season or regular season game pitched by any starter this season.

 

Guys will put up zeros and be getting lucky, but if you look at the advanced stats, the spray chart the eye test of velocity and movement, Snell was arguably pitching one of the finest games a starter has thrown all season. Tampa simply does not believe in a guy being "ON". There's no such thing in their world. If you can't give a guy a little more rope given what Snell did last night, you never will. It's not like the Dodgers were swinging through cookies, they were getting dominated.

 

I'll address this simply due to Jim's suggestion it's the POTY.

 

I don't disagree with anything saskjayfan is saying. I never said I agreed or disagreed with his decision. What I don't like is the immediate outrage. People seemed surprised and angry at the move. It wasn't just people on this board, but my friends and other media outlets also. My impression is most who were surprised and angry fall into the "I like old school baseball" camp and that camp in general triggers me. It's the #1 reason I hate Buck Martinez. He takes EVERY opportunity he can to point out when an analytically based decision backfires while reminiscing about the good ole days.

 

I simply have been saying that nobody should be surprised by this move. It's the TB/Cash model and it's been VERY successful for them, including Game 7 of the ALCS and Game 2 of the WS (which was a must win). I said that in Kevin Cash's mind, he was going with his very pitcher (and the best reliver in baseball over the past 2 years) in the most critical situation. I have no problem with the argument that Anderson hadn't been good recently and may have been wore out - or people questioning if it simply should have been Castillo or Fairbanks instead. I also have no problem with people suggesting that Snell remained his best option at the time. The guy is trying to weigh SSS results with the larger sample size numbers, with what his eyes told him (Snell's velo was down in the 6th and he laid in a couple of meat balls to Pollock and Barnes) and he has to crunch all that s*** together in real time and make a decision. I suspect he didn't have time to calculate Snell's swinging strike plush called strike percentage.

 

I do have a problem with people who just blindly saying he should put the computer away and that analytics have gone too far and that he should have solely gone with his eyes and gut. I have a problem with people who don't acknowledge the success Cash has had with his methods. This is a guy who's successfully viewed Nick Anderson has his #1 weapon for 2 years now. He's his Mariano Rivera. In all likelihood, his decision was probably made with his gut a lot more than those who are ripping him for not using his eyes and gut even realize. It didn't work that time. That's baseball.

[Laika]

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

 

Maybe taking out Snell was a bit too early?

 

By Tangotiger 07:23 PM

 

I’ve posted on Twitter some data. I wrote a chapter in The Book on the topic. Plenty of others have chimed in, all concluding the same thing. Times Thru Order effect is real, and it does not take a backseat to a pitcher that is mowing down his opponents.

 

I’m here to offer a possibility that under a specific situation, maybe there is an overriding concern. We’ll get there in a sec. Here’s a data chart, and I’ll explain what it is. (Click to embiggen)

 

http://tangotiger.com/images/uploads/snell_thruOrder.png

 

All the data is from 2010-2019, courtesy of Retrosheet. Chart on the left is regular season and chart on the right is the post-season. The columns from -1 to 9 refers to the strikeout - walk differential for the first 18 batters faced. -1 means more walks than strikeouts. 9 means 9 or more strikeouts than walks. All the others are exact counts. Walk is really walks + hit batters, with IBB removed. Snell was a “9”, meaning the best.

 

The columns “1” and “2” means 1st time and 2nd time through the order. The data is wOBA. Now, don’t pay too much (or any) attention to those two columns. Those are selection biases and we’ll learn nothing from them.

 

The column we care about is “3” meaning the performance 3rd time through the order. Since we selected our strikeout-walk differential based on the first 18 batters faced (in-sample), we are interested in what happens after that (out-of-sample). And that is the third time thru the order.

 

Now, let’s start with the regular season. We notice that the wOBA gets progressively lower, the more the strikeout-walk differential. That’s really an issue of bias, because the better pitchers will be part of the higher differential groups disproportionately. So, we expect that value to behave as it does based strictly on the quality of the pitchers in each of those groups.

 

Now, the right thing for me to do is to look at the actual quality of pitchers in there. I will leave that to the Aspiring Saberist. What we can do instead is use this as a baseline of sorts as we now turn our attention to the post-season chart.

 

First, we’ll notice that in the post-season, third time through, with the strikeout-walk differential at 5 or less, the performance is roughly the same. Since the post-season is made up of good pitchers to begin with, we don’t expect the progressive drop we saw from the regular season.

 

That said, then the fun happens. We see a big drop at a strikeout-walk differential of 6. Then a huge drop at 7. And all by its lonesome is a .214 wOBA with a strikeout-walk differential of 9+. Now, we are only talking about 9 pitchers (all huge names, as you’d expect: Cole and Kershaw twice each, Kluber, CC, Max, Stras, Verlander). And they totalled just 49 plate appearances. One standard deviation is 71 wOBA points. If we assume a .300 level talent, that’s only 1.2 standard deviations.

 

But, 49 sounds like a lot, and if the non-data folks want to hang their hats on something, it’s that one. That in the post-season, when a superstar pitcher is mowing down batters, they went out to pitch at a better-than-Mariano level.

 

And to give them more ammunition, we can combine the strikeout-walk differential at 7+ (so those last three lines). That’s 341 batters faced at a wOBA of .259 (meaning Mariano level). And one standard deviation is now down to 27 points. Which is actually 1.5 standard deviations.

 

Therefore, I will give them that as a reasonable possibility. Just like we DID find evidence that a pitcher’s talent level does improve in the 9th inning when he’s going for a perfect game, maybe there is a brief change in talent level for a pitcher, who is at the highest level, pitching at an even higher level, and on the greatest stage, the post-season.

 

That said, these star pitchers did not pitch at the level that their first 18 batters suggested, that they were “unhittable”. The best you can see is that they pitched like an average Mariano Rivera. Which is of course great. And naturally, you don’t pull Mariano Rivera from a game.

 

But everything I’ve said comes with a degree of uncertainty. You can make the argument that Blake Snell third time through drop in performance gets cancelled out by what we saw, and so we had an average Blake Snell. And you don’t pull an average Blake Snell.

 

Or, all of this is really grasping at straws, that the regular season provides so much data that we can conclude that Snell was losing effectiveness all the while our eyes were lying to us.

 

Anyway, the floor is open to the Aspiring Saberists.

[Laika]

Post of the year.

 

You might like the post but it is a summary of what the poster heard on the radio. How can that be the post of the year? The standards for our BJMB Awards are really slipping.

[Jimcanuck]

You might like the post but it is a summary of what the poster heard on the radio. How can that be the post of the year? The standards for our BJMB Awards are really slipping.

 

Beautiful presentation.